Ukraine mobilised almost as soon as the war started and I expect that they spent a lot of the last 6 months training, planning and re-arming. Unless the Russians are just planning on providing more cannon fodder for the Ukrainians I don't imagine we will see anything much happen until next year.Given how poorly the current batch of troops in UKR are equipped (barring the 3rd Corps), I would be shocked if they field another 50K soldiers with proper equipment. (at least in the short term)
We shall see what Putin declares, but I am now finally getting concerned about the possible escalations.
Are we past rational behavior ?
- Rationally, Putin should know he is not meeting his goals.
- Rationally, trying to raise more poorly trained irregular forces wont get you anywhere.
- Rationally, continued attacks at Bahkmut while your other fronts suffer, is not a winning strategy
- Rationally, calling for total mobilization isnt going to solve your short (and maybe long) term problems.
The hardest thing Putin needs to do is convince the already suffering Russian population that this war is even worth it. If he can't do that then I can't see the Russians being able to raise a military force capable of reversing their fortunes against the better equipped, better trained, better lead and more motivated Ukrainians.