The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

swerve

Super Moderator
Reportedly Span has changed their mind about supplying Leo-2s to Ukraine due to their poor condition.

These are the secondhand A4s procured as a stopgap until the 2Es were built? Presumably they could be refurbished, but I think they've had about 10 years without maintenance, & perhaps not stored well.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
You also said "after 5 months" -- I merely pointed out that few (if any) analysts expected this to end so quickly.
I know what I said. The "5 months" was in reference to the fact that it has dragged this long but in a way its still early days and the political mood might change. If the possibility of a NATO/Russian class becomes because of the war; NATO might reevaluate things out of sheer self interests. I also pointed that that despite all the predictions about the Russians collapsing or abandoning their effort; they haven't yet.

Furthermore, Russia's losses of both equipment and personnel in the first 5 months also massively exceeded pre-war estimates of analysts.
Which is well known and understood but they're still at it and might be able to sustain the effort indefinitely irrespective of the losses they've incurred. There's also the question of how long the Ukraine can take this level of punishment despite the assistance and support its receiving.

Nothing can change these facts. As for the future, we just have to wait and see.
Indeed nothing changes the fact that despite Rusian losses; sanctions, Western support to the Ukraine and other things the Russians have not given up. Ultimately they might not win but the Ukraine might also not win.

I also question a lot of what we've been told about the current situation. How much of it is accurate? I take what both sides say with a large pinch of salt.

You have to look at the motivation of Russians. They are not motivated by an existential fight. They are not motivated by religion or
Indeed but the other part of the narrative is that some units are better motivated; some believe they are there for a good reasons and there haven't been reports of mass desertions or mutinies.

or some (probably very few) it's basically the dream of a lost empire
For some it could be the "right or wrong; it's still my country" mindset. I'm not convinced with "the lost empire" theory.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
These are the secondhand A4s procured as a stopgap until the 2Es were built? Presumably they could be refurbished, but I think they've had about 10 years without maintenance, & perhaps not stored well.
Also the quantity reported was very low making their value questionable.

On a couple of notes preparations are being made for a referendum in Russian-held areas of Zaporozhye on the question of annexation by Russia. Given the continuing fighting, and that the largest city in the region is in Ukrainian hands, much of the population fled, even if this referendum was conducted fairly, it would be highyl suspect.


And there was an explosion at the Novofedorovka airbase in Crimea. It doesn't appear to be a Ukrainian missile strike but it could have been an infiltrator team. Casulaties declared so far are 5 wounded, all civilians.

 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 1 of 2: Strike on 2 munitions storage sites near or at Saki Airbase in Crimea

1. There are reports that 2 munitions storage sites near or at Saki Air Base in Novofedorivka, Crimea, have been hit by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Saki Air Base is the fifth Russian-controlled air base at which Russian aircraft are known to have been damaged and/or destroyed due to attacks in recent history. Others include Millerovo (in Russia), Kherson (in Ukraine), T-4 (used as a Russian FARP in Syria) and Hmeimim (in Syria).
(a) @Feanor, I suspect it is not an an infiltrator team that caused the 2 explosions in Crimea. Though a massive accident or sabotage could have been the cause, it would appear increasingly likely that these are missile strikes. Other than you, I know everyone on Twitter is speculating what Ukrainian weapon was responsible for the attack on the Russian airbase in occupied Crimea; it doesn't matter WHAT the missile was, it simply matters the Ukrainians now have this capability.​
(b) But before we start celebrating the missile strikes on the munitions storage sites near or at Saki Airbase in Crimea, Ukraine needs to dedicate scarce assets to build a future force. The West needs to get out of an emergency mindset. This requires aid to Ukraine to reduce the pressures that cause that mindset. Western political and economic assurances must accompany military aid.​

2. In the last few months and in broad strokes, American/Polish military aid has been the supply of emergency or tactical systems, like Javelin missiles, HMMWVs and Poland’s Soviet era tanks and IFVs to keep the AFU in the fight.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 2 of 2: Strike on 2 munitions storage sites near or at Saki Airbase in Crimea

3. US officials have clarified that targets in Crimea are fair game, including the Kerch Strait Bridge, as they see it as Russian occupied territory of Ukraine. Zero proof of ATACMS presence in Ukraine. I am also not buying the Russia's Defence Ministry claims that the aviation munitions detonated at the Saky airfield did not affect aviation equipment. I am sure the Russian media will say that no casualties are reported.

4. The training of Ukrainian troops in the UK and the US, signals a shift of the military assistance provided for medium-term or operational systems.
(a) These include the 16 HIMARS, various types of NATO style 155mm howitzers, M113s, MaxxPro MRAPs, Wolfhound Heavy Tactical Support Vehicles, Bushmasters and other protected mobility vehicles to tap into a new stream of ammo and vehicles. The delivery of M777 howitzers in numbers, helped grind the latest Russian offensive to a slow crawl.​
(b) Australia has supplied 28 M113AS4s and 60 Bushmaster MRAPs; and​
(c) UK’s contributions to supply various armoured vehicles at this stage is significant:​
  • 40 CVR(T) AFVs
  • 35 FV103 Spartan APCs
  • 80 Mastiff and Wolfhound MRAPs and Husky IMVs
5. The focus of aid so far has been on emergency or tactical systems, but the supply of medium-term or operational systems are increasingly important as Ukraine shifts toward offensive operations. AFU needs at last 2 to 3 brigades of 120mm armed MBTs, IFVs, self-propelled 155mm howitzers, secure comms, and wheeled air defences to keep up with the newly supplied MBTs/IFVs — this also means trucks to push various munitions (including Smart 155 sensor fuzed artillery submunitions), spare parts, and fuel to keep up with the MBTs/IFVs. Ukraine also needs troops and leaders trained for offensive operations.
 
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vikingatespam

Active Member
In regards to the Crimean airbase explosions, if this was a missile attack, how did it pass through the RU air defenses ? What the range on the UKR Neptunes ?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Apparently abandoned Ukrainian positions after an alleged failed offensive attempt. The position is apparently an LP/OP with good vantage on Russian positions.


More explosions around the Antonov bridge, presumably Ukrainian strikes.


Ukrainian strikes on the Daryevskiy bridge across the Ingulets river.


Another large explosion near Novaya Kahovka.


A look at battle damage from an earlier Ukrainian strike on Novaya Kahovka.


Russian 22160 patrol boat with a Tor module. "Modular" design.


16 locals, allegedly insurgents, were taken by Russian security forces in Kherson. Many are allegedly former territorial defense fighters.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

More strikes on the Zaporozhskaya NPP.


Russian forces firing on Nikopol', where allegedly Ukrainian forces have been striking Energodar from.


Kharkov-Sumy-Poltava.

Russian strikes on Kharkov.


Russian strikes on Chuguev, near Kharkov.


Ukraine has published images from the Mirgorod airbase, Poltava region, that shows it's actively being used to fly Su-27s and MiG-29s.


Izyum Salient.

Ukrainian positions hit by mortar fire near Slavyansk. Note how well concealed they are.


LDNR Front.

DNR 9th Rgt firing on Avdeevka.


Rebel D-20s firing on Avdeevka, unnamed artillery bde.


Russian aircraft striking Peski. It's unclear whether these are strikes against Ukrainian forces on the north-western outskirts or older footage that pre-dates Russian and rebel forces taking the defense lines there.


Fires burn in Mar'inka, presumably after Russian/rebel shelling.


Shellings of Donetsk continue. Warning graphic footage of wounded and corpses.


Some footage of Russian and rebel forces around Soledar. We have unconfirmed reports that they are inside the town already, fighting in the industrial sector.


Russian Army 55th Motor-rifles near Seversk.


LNR guntruck. Location and context unclear.


Rebel MT-LB with BMP-1 turret, location and context unclear.


Russia.

Klimovo village, Bryansk region, was hit, allegedly a Tochka strike. Reportedly 2 civilians wounded.


Russia's 155th MarBde has formed a volunteer formation, btln Tigr. It appears to consist of volunteers recruited for this unit specifically. They will apparently deploy alongside elements of the 155th MarBde. They are being trained by DOSAAF, a Russian organization that typically prepares highschoolers for the draft, and are apparently getting a month of training. The Russian Primorye region is financing this, including comm gear and quadcopters. Note that while their uniforms appear to be Russian military standard, their equipment was clearly purchased somewhere else, though in a centralized and standardized manner.


Misc.

Footage allegedly of a Phoenix Ghost loitering munition strike, location and context unclear.


Russian Mi-28N lobbing rockets, location and context unclear.


What appears to be Russian infantry in action. They're firing thermobaric rockets at what is allegedly a Ukrainian strong point, and then withdrawing, while exchanging fire. A BMP-3 shows up at the end. The context is unclear and the sequence of events is strange. Presumably one would try to assault the position after firing on it in this manner. In this case... the opposite?


Apparently Russian SpN using UAVs to spot Ukrainian troop movements, and then ATGMs with thermobaric warheads to strike the buildings they're in.


Former Ukrainian President Poroshenko has purchased a batch of H10 Poseidon MkII UAVs for Ukraine.


Another Russian haphazardly up-armored Kamaz. Despite the appearance of Tornado-U armored trucks, most Russian rear elements are still in unarmored vehicles.


A Ukrainian Orlan-10 that has flown 70 missions over Ukraine. On the one hand a testament to the reliability of the type but also to the scarcity of the type.


A captured Streit Group Cobra, the fighter posing is either from the Russian volunteer btlns or a Russian National Guardsmen.


Russian TOS unit, location and context unclear.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
This seems unlikely. Far likelier is DPRK labor being used in LDNR areas. This has already been suggested in Russian sources.
Hopefully the Russians and the LDNR are feeding and treating them better than their own people are.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
ISW Updates.
These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
August 8, 7:00 pm ET

Main Points.
  • Reporting of a likely falsified Russian statement distracts from the real risks of a Russian-caused nuclear disaster at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Russian forces continue to conduct attacks from and store military equipment near the plant’s nuclear reactors, likely to play upon Western fears of a nuclear disaster and degrade Western will to provide additional military support to Ukraine.
  • Russian forces conducted ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk and northeast and southeast of Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces continued ground attacks northwest and southwest of Donetsk City.
  • Russian officials postponed reopening the Antonivskyi Bridge after a Ukrainian strike damaged the bridge and nearby construction equipment.
  • Russian forces are deploying less-professional occupation forces and increasing pressure on Ukrainian populations in occupied areas.


Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Western and Ukrainian outlets circulated a report, likely false, of a Russian general allegedly threatening to destroy Europe’s largest nuclear facility, the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), if Russia could not hold the plant.
Multiple news outlets shared a screenshot from the Russian social networking site Vkontakte that claimed to cite the Russian head of the Zaporizhia occupation garrison, Major General Valery Vasilev, stating that Russia had mined the Zaporizhzhia NPP and that the plant would be “either Russian land or a scorched desert.”[1] The screenshot appeared to be a news report posted in a Vkontakte group run by Russian outlet Lenta Novosti Zaporizhia. The outlet itself claimed that the screenshot was from a faked group and denied writing the report.[2] The Russian Ministry of Defense condemned the report and screenshot as a “fake” and claimed that Vasilev was in Uzbekistan at the time he was purported to have made the statement to forces at Zaporizhzhia.[3] Regardless of the origin (or existence) of the original post, the reporting is unreliable. It is indirect and does not claim to cite an official statement or a statement made on any official Russian news or government website.

This likely misreporting distracts from the very real risks of Russia’s militarization of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which may include mining the plant and almost certainly includes the unsafe storage of military armaments near nuclear reactors and nuclear waste storage facilities.[4] Bellingcat geolocated a drone video of the Zaporizhia NPP that was shared by Russian opposition outlet The Insider on August 5. The video depicts Russian military vehicles moving in and around the plant, including military trucks and armored vehicles moving around and into the building containing the first of the plant’s six nuclear reactors.[5] Russian forces have also dug trenches in and around the plant and may have established firing positions.[6] Russian officials claim that Ukraine has repeatedly attacked the plant, while Ukrainian officials claim that Russian forces are attacking Ukrainian positions from within the plant, preventing Ukrainian return fire and essentially using the plant as a nuclear shield.[7] Russian forces have repeatedly shelled the nearby Ukrainian-controlled town of Nikopol, likely from positions in or around the NPP, since July.[8]

ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are likely leveraging the threat of nuclear disaster to degrade Western will to provide military support to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.[9]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

Full article: Institute for the Study of War
The pdf can be downloaded here.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Hopefully the Russians and the LDNR are feeding and treating them better than their own people are.
I've read reports before that being part of the work program where DPRK workers go to Russia was considered a desireable posting because of better positions, but I can't speak to the veracity of the reports. Also my information is old. I imagine they will be treated reasonably well, quite possibly much better then they would at home. The DPRK really is a mysterious place, and it's often hard to separate fact from fiction about conditions there. Defectors provide some insight, but it's important to remember that it's less likely that someone who is doing well by DPRK standards would defect, so there's an inherent bias in those information sources. I also suspect it's not their worst of the worst that get sent abroad on work assingments, quite the opposite they probably send more politically reliable workers.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 1 of 2: Strike on 2 munitions storage sites near or at Saki Airbase in Crimea

1. There are reports that 2 munitions storage sites near or at Saki Air Base in Novofedorivka, Crimea, have been hit by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Saki Air Base is the fifth Russian-controlled air base at which Russian aircraft are known to have been damaged and/or destroyed due to attacks in recent history. Others include Millerovo (in Russia), Kherson (in Ukraine), T-4 (used as a Russian FARP in Syria) and Hmeimim (in Syria).
(a) @Feanor, I suspect it is not an an infiltrator team that caused the 2 explosions in Crimea. Though a massive accident or sabotage could have been the cause, it would appear increasingly likely that these are missile strikes. Other than you, I know everyone on Twitter is speculating what Ukrainian weapon was responsible for the attack on the Russian airbase in occupied Crimea; it doesn't matter WHAT the missile was, it simply matters the Ukrainians now have this capability.​
(b) But before we start celebrating the missile strikes on the munitions storage sites near or at Saki Airbase in Crimea, Ukraine needs to dedicate scarce assets to build a future force. The West needs to get out of an emergency mindset. This requires aid to Ukraine to reduce the pressures that cause that mindset. Western political and economic assurances must accompany military aid.​

2. In the last few months and in broad strokes, American/Polish military aid has been the supply of emergency or tactical systems, like Javelin missiles, HMMWVs and Poland’s Soviet era tanks and IFVs to keep the AFU in the fight.
There so far aren't any eyewitness reports of a missile incoming, despite there being crowded beaches nearby. I suspect if it's a Ukrainian strike, it's probably something like the quadcopter attack on the VMF HQ in Sevastopol'. It could also be a Ukrainian infiltrator team. Finally never underestimate regular incompetence. This could very well have been a case of dramatic incompetence. Reportedly they're up to 1 killed 13 wounded civilians. Allegedly no military casualties, though I find this doubtful.

EDIT: I'm hearing references in various news articles to a leaked report from Ukrainian Armed Forces commander Zaluzhniy, where Ukraine apparently lost ~191 000 in KIA and WIA, is sufferring from mass desertion, and Ukrainian hospitals are no longer up to the task of handling the heavily wounded. I'm having a hard time locating the report itself, and it's entirely plausible that this leak is a Russian propaganda effort. On the other hand it's not implausible and explains why a 700 000 strong Ukrainian force can't seem to push back ~250 000 Russian troops and associated rebel forces. It also tracks well with the massive discrepancy in firepower, and the rather desperate looking recruiting efforts we're seeing in Ukraine.

So far I'd treat it as possible but completely unconfirmed. I'm going to try and find the original. I suspect it will also be some time before we see corroboration in either direction, unless it gets discredited as a fake.
 
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Jaykaro

New Member
There so far aren't any eyewitness reports of a missile incoming, despite there being crowded beaches nearby. I suspect if it's a Ukrainian strike, it's probably something like the quadcopter attack on the VMF HQ in Sevastopol'. It could also be a Ukrainian infiltrator team. Finally never underestimate regular incompetence. This could very well have been a case of dramatic incompetence. Reportedly they're up to 1 killed 13 wounded civilians. Allegedly no military casualties, though I find this doubtful.

EDIT: I'm hearing references in various news articles to a leaked report from Ukrainian Armed Forces commander Zaluzhniy, where Ukraine apparently lost ~191 000 in KIA and WIA, is sufferring from mass desertion, and Ukrainian hospitals are no longer up to the task of handling the heavily wounded. I'm having a hard time locating the report itself, and it's entirely plausible that this leak is a Russian propaganda effort. On the other hand it's not implausible and explains why a 700 000 strong Ukrainian force can't seem to push back ~250 000 Russian troops and associated rebel forces. It also tracks well with the massive discrepancy in firepower, and the rather desperate looking recruiting efforts we're seeing in Ukraine.

So far I'd treat it as possible but completely unconfirmed. I'm going to try and find the original. I suspect it will also be some time before we see corroboration in either direction, unless it gets discredited as a fake.
Good afternoon, all. I found excerpts from Zaluzhny's "report". It is obvious that it was written by Russians. I quote: "More than 80% of reservists from the fifth mobilization wave have already been killed, wounded, or deserted;"

The Russians apparently do not know that there is a third wave of mobilization in Ukraine, there was not even a fourth, what the hell is the fifth? There is no such thing as a "fifth wave" in Ukraine.

" rather desperate looking recruiting efforts we're seeing in Ukraine."

The summons from the military registration and enlistment office is not desperate recruiting efforts. Desperate recruitment was in the DNR, when men were caught right in the street (driven like sheep into a pen), and there is nothing like that in the rest of Ukraine.

These reports are at the level of forged reports on arms sales to Africa, where Reznikov's signature was taken from wikipedia.

The only thing I can still believe, and that is just a guess.
If the casualty figures are correct, again from RUSSIAN sources. Then we have 960 dead AFU commanders. If we take something like "THE RELATIONSHIP OF BATTLE DAMAGE TO UNIT COMBAT PERFORMANCE" or "Fight Outnumbered and Win... Against What Odds". Then you can figure it out -
The average officer-to-soldier ratio in the armed forces is 1:24.7
The classic ratio of wounded to killed in wars with extensive use of artillery systems is 1:3. So ->
Between 23,000 and 24,000 killed.
70 to 72 thousand wounded.
But again, these are all theoretical calculations, and according to them, Russian casualties would be no less.
 

vikingatespam

Active Member
There so far aren't any eyewitness reports of a missile incoming, despite there being crowded beaches nearby. I suspect if it's a Ukrainian strike, it's probably something like the quadcopter attack on the VMF HQ in Sevastopol'. It could also be a Ukrainian infiltrator team. Finally never underestimate regular incompetence. This could very well have been a case of dramatic incompetence. Reportedly they're up to 1 killed 13 wounded civilians. Allegedly no military casualties, though I find this doubtful.

EDIT: I'm hearing references in various news articles to a leaked report from Ukrainian Armed Forces commander Zaluzhniy, where Ukraine apparently lost ~191 000 in KIA and WIA, is sufferring from mass desertion, and Ukrainian hospitals are no longer up to the task of handling the heavily wounded. I'm having a hard time locating the report itself, and it's entirely plausible that this leak is a Russian propaganda effort. On the other hand it's not implausible and explains why a 700 000 strong Ukrainian force can't seem to push back ~250 000 Russian troops and associated rebel forces. It also tracks well with the massive discrepancy in firepower, and the rather desperate looking recruiting efforts we're seeing in Ukraine.

So far I'd treat it as possible but completely unconfirmed. I'm going to try and find the original. I suspect it will also be some time before we see corroboration in either direction, unless it gets discredited as a fake.
Some reports I read indicate 2 explosions about the same time which would seem to indicate not an accident. Further BDA based on satellite pics gives an estimate of 10-15 destroyed planes.

UKR losses: I think I know of the "report" you speak of, supposedly this started on RU social media platforms about "leaked" UKR documents. Sounds fishy to me at best, and furthermore, I doubt UKR has 700000 men actually in arms. I doubt they could equip that many at once.

EDIT: looking at satellite pics (Satellite images of destroyed Russian aircraft at Novofedorivka airbase Saky - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com) there appear to be numerous hits in the aircraft area, maybe a large number of smaller munitions ? Of course, it could just be chain reactions from exploding ordinance, but the aircraft were in revetments.....
 
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