The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
LDNR Front.

Russian airstrikes near Donetsk.


Rebel forces firing an UR-77 near Gorlovka towards positions of the 30th bde.


Russian artillery strikes near Lisichansk.


Ukrainian strike in Stakhanov, LNR area.


Yasinovataya getting hit by shelling, DNR area.


LNR T-72B hits an anti-tank mine, near Lisichansk.


Ukrainian troops withdrawing presumably from Lisichansk under fire.


Ukrainian infantry withdrawing from Lisichansk, complains that they were abandoned.


Allegedly a Polish fighter taken POW near Lisichansk.


Ukrainian vehicles knocked out or abandoned in Severodonetsk-Lisichansk area.
1st link; we have a T-64BV, a BRDM-2, 3 armored cars, a T-72B (we can't confirm but this might be a Russian tank), a destroyed Humvee, and at least 6 captured Humvees.
2nd link; we have three humvees, a pickup truck, and what I think is an MT-LB.
3rd link we have one knocked out BTR-60PB, one AT-105 Saxon knocked out, one Rapira anti-tank gun knocked out, and one captured.



Destroyed BMP-2 in Loskutovka, allegedly Ukrainian.


Overrun Ukrainian positions at the Severodonetsk airport. Note the blank ammo, the location served as a training area.


Russian/rebel forces taken Privol'ye, a small town north of Lisichansk.


The Lisichansk police station, destroyed. It was apparently a Ukrainian staging area.


From Kramatorsk, we can see smoke rising over Seversk, where lead Russian forces are apparently trying to continue the advance.


DNR artillery training with 2S4 super-heavy mortars.


Pavel Gubarev, a famous figure of the Kharkov anti-Maidan, fighting on the front lines as part of DNR forces.


Footage from the Lisichansk oil refinery. The location is in Russia/rebel hands.


Retreating from the Lisichansk refinery, Ukrainian forces have scattered a bunch of small anti-infantry mines around the area.


Lisichansk has fallen.


Ukrainian infantry moving around Lisichansk.


4 Ukrainian POWs from the 10th Mountain Bde, taken near Lisichansk.


Diesel btln DNR with a T-80BV. Pre-war rebels did not operate the type. Recently a number were taken out of storage. This is likely a new arrival.


A story of a mobilized DNR reservist returned from POW. He claims he was tortured with electroshock and beaten with sticks.


3 more DNR POWs exchanged recently state that they were convicted of treason by Ukrainian authorities and were also beaten and tortured with electroshock.


Assorted footage of the town out of Severodonetsk.


Assorted footage of the town, Lisichansk.


DNR claims they've lost 2247 KIA, 9453 WIA military personnel since the start of this war and KIA 687 WIA 11681 for civilians.


Interesting footage out of Lisichansk apparently Sky News tried to interview locals and they had unkind words to say about Britain and one of them blamed Ukraine for the war. It's important to note that Ukraine is in fact divided and an area like Severodonetsk-Lisichansk with large quantities of ethnic Russians coupled with even the ethnic Ukrainians being heavily Russified, often means locals are sympathetic with Russia or the rebels. Severodonetsk itself was a anti-Maidan location in '14 and was briefly in the DNR. These attitudes are generally not shared in other pards of the country.


The West.

In Mukachevo, Zakarpatye area of Ukraine, police is apparently grabbing people off the streets to send to the military commissariat.


Russia.

Russian missile launches out of Belgorod.


More footage of the wreckage of a Tu-143 shot down in Russia, Kursk region.


Russian National Guard returning from Ukraine to Nizhniy Novgorod and Kaluga.


Russian 200th Motor-Rifle is preparing a volunteer btln to head to Ukraine. The composite unit will include volunteers from other units, and even reservists that choose to enlist. They've apparently been training for a month. Note how much of their small arms have optics. Some of the fighters are WIA from early in the war that are looking to return.


The Kronshtadt factory in Dubna is switching to 24 hour operations to increase UAV production. They are also offering housing allowances in an attempt to get more staff.


Misc.

Russian Ka-52 dodges a MANPADS, location unclear.


Russian Tigr-M hit a mine, but apparently all occupants survived. Location unclear.


Allegedly a Russian sniper taking out two Ukrainian soldiers.


Ukrainian forces spotted firing a longer range 155mm LU 211 B-BB shell out of the Caesar howitzer.


Russian recon apparently ambushed and took out a Ukrainian pickup truck. Location and context unclear.


We have unconfirmed reports that Russia captured a PzH-2000.


Chechen fighters with a captured Kozak armored car.


Ukrainian forces using Tigr-M and BTR-82A. Note that despite many vehicles being captured early in the war, very few captured Russian vehicles have been seen in Ukrainian service so far.


Ukrainian forces operating Krab howitzers. Location and context unclear.


Ukrainian HIMARS, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian PzH-2000, location and context unclear.


Russian Marines with BTR-82A and T-80BVs. Note the paint job on the T-80BV. I think this vehicle is from storage.


NATO/EU.

Ukraine is getting 17 Defiant boats from Metal Shark.


There are unconfirmed reports that Canada will deliver 39 IFVs to Ukraine, presumed to be LAV ACSV Super Bison.


Ukrainian artillerymen in the UK learning to use L-118 howitzers and MLRS.


Ukraine will apparently receive NASAMS from the US.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Russian Generals need to learn that they are supposed to be doing C2 jobs, not at the front leading death defying charges at the enemy or driving bloody cranes. A General killed by his own stupidity caused by a rush to the brain of macho bullcrap doesn't do anyone except the enemy any good. If they really feel the need to do such activities then they can request to be busted back to Mládshiy leytenánt (Junior Lieutenant) and indulge in their romantic "heroic" fantasies.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russian Generals need to learn that they are supposed to be doing C2 jobs, not at the front leading death defying charges at the enemy or driving bloody cranes. A General killed by his own stupidity caused by a rush to the brain of macho bullcrap doesn't do anyone except the enemy any good. If they really feel the need to do such activities then they can request to be busted back to Mládshiy leytenánt (Junior Lieutenant) and indulge in their romantic "heroic" fantasies.
Are you sure that's the problem? How else would you have resolved that crane situation? Remember this is the Russian Army. Nobody is certified to operate that crane and they're declining to do so as an unlawful order. The civilians are just employees, they're not service members at all. Your own people can't do it. What do you do?

I think the problem is not macho bullshit. I think the problem is that the VMF badly screwed up its development over the past ~15 years. The result is their absolutely abysmal performance in this war. They have 22160 patrol ships with some interesting capabilities, but that don't fit into the overall force structure, and often haven't purchased the equipment needed to maximize those capabilities (for example they have a dedicated UAV hangar but I haven't seen a single instance of UAV ops from a 22160 patrol boat being mentioned). They have 3 11356 frigates, likely the only surface combatants worth anything. And they have a gaggle of small missile ships that are basically missile barges. They could be a missile mount on a truck and be about as useful at a fraction of the cost. Meanwhile they don't have the mine trawlers to clear the Odessa port. They don't have enough surface combatants to reliably control airspace over the sea south of Odessa, and the support vessel fleet is manned by civilian contractors that are apparently able to simply refuse to work.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Are you sure that's the problem? How else would you have resolved that crane situation? Remember this is the Russian Army. Nobody is certified to operate that crane and they're declining to do so as an unlawful order. The civilians are just employees, they're not service members at all. Your own people can't do it. What do you do?

I think the problem is not macho bullshit. I think the problem is that the VMF badly screwed up its development over the past ~15 years. The result is their absolutely abysmal performance in this war. They have 22160 patrol ships with some interesting capabilities, but that don't fit into the overall force structure, and often haven't purchased the equipment needed to maximize those capabilities (for example they have a dedicated UAV hangar but I haven't seen a single instance of UAV ops from a 22160 patrol boat being mentioned). They have 3 11356 frigates, likely the only surface combatants worth anything. And they have a gaggle of small missile ships that are basically missile barges. They could be a missile mount on a truck and be about as useful at a fraction of the cost. Meanwhile they don't have the mine trawlers to clear the Odessa port. They don't have enough surface combatants to reliably control airspace over the sea south of Odessa, and the support vessel fleet is manned by civilian contractors that are apparently able to simply refuse to work.
I was being somewhat facetious but I do think that there is rot at the top and this war campaign hasn't definitely been thought out well. It does say a lot about an army when a General has to drive a crane because no one of lower rank would do it. I can think of a lot of Kiwi and Aussie defence personnel who would do just because it had to be done. In the case of the Kiwis whether the General got his crane back might be another story.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
. In the case of the Kiwis whether the General got his crane back might be another story.
Having read up and been told by my employee (Vietnam vet don of WWII vet) the amount of gear the Aussies stole from the yanks got a decent shock and a lot of appreciation for how much more the Kiwis stole... Good thing for Putin he not facing you lot, likely steal his gear before he can use it on you.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Having read up and been told by my employee (Vietnam vet don of WWII vet) the amount of gear the Aussies stole from the yanks got a decent shock and a lot of appreciation for how much more the Kiwis stole... Good thing for Putin he not facing you lot, likely steal his gear before he can use it on you.
Definitely. Our WW2 soldiers stole a complete altar including the back decoration panels from a Roman Catholic Church in some Italian town and bought it back to NZ. About 20 years ago the old boys thought that they'd better return it before they fell off their perches.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Ukrainian M-777 getting hit, Nikolaev region.


Russia has assigned a new head of the Military-Civil Administration of Kherson region. He comes from Kaliningrad.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Ukrainian HIMARS in Zaporozhye region. They may have been involved in the recent strike on Melitopol'.


Melitopol' got hit by strikes. There are reports of explosions near the airport. It's reportedly a Smerch strike.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes land in Kharkov.


There are social media reports out of Kharkov that Russian strikes on the 130th Territorial defense btln yielded 18 KIA. At 3:1 that means another ~54 WIA for a total of ~70+ casualties. These are quite heavy losses for a single btln that likely wasn't at full strength to begin with.


Russian column heading to Kharkov region to restore electricity.


Izyum Salient.

Russian strikes around Slavyansk continue.


Russian TOS strikes near Izyum.


LDNR Front.

DNR 11th Regiment firing on Ukrainian forces.


Donetsk is getting shelled again.


Snezhnoe, DNR area, got hit.



Apparently Russian munition storage in Popasnaya got hit.


More destroyed Ukrainian vehicles, Severodonetsk-Lisichansk. 1st link - we have a BTR-3, a truck towing an MT-12, a random truck, and a MT-LB with a ZU-23-2. I think we've seen the MT-LB in question before. 2nd link - a Kozak armored car. I think it was part of the previous photo-set but this time we have better shots of it. 3rd link - more photos of vehicles we've already seen, including the BTR-3, the MT-12, the BTR-60PB from the last update, etc. 4th link also more photos of destroyed vehicles we've seen, including MT-12s, the AT-105, and the MT-LB. 5th Link - in addition to what we've seen in other links, this has another BTR-60 (I think), a BMP-1, and a destroyed armored car that I don't think we've seen before.


Russian Chechen fighters have allegedly captured 4 Varta armored cars in Lisichansk. Only 1 is shown in the video.


Captured in Severodonetsk, Milan ATGMs, and AT-4 rocket launchers.


Captured Ukrainian munitions, location and context unclear. Might be Lisichansk area.


Footage from Klinovoe, a village near Artemovsk/Bakhmut recently taken by Russian forces.


Belogorovka has fallen to Russian/rebel forces.


A few remaining locals in Lisichansk are happy to see Russian or rebel forces.


A ranking officer from the 7th LNR Bde, Andrey Skoriy, returns to Lisichansk, his home town.


Footage of Severodonetsk.


I believe this is a rebel 2S3 unit, but location and context are unclear.


Russian construction projects in Mariupol' continue. How quickly Russia can rebuild the city and induce residents to return is a huge factor in whether it becomes a productive urban center or a semi-permanent ruin.


Pre-fall of Lisichansk footage of rebel forces crossing Severskiy Donets into Privol'ye.


Ukrainian forces retreating from Lisichansk.


Russia.

Ukraine hit Belgorod with a large missile strike. There are reports of 6 intercepted missiles and 8 explosions happening in the town. At least one residential house was hit. At least part of the strike was a Tochka missile, and it's possible the damage was caused by fragments of intercepted missiles rather then actual strikes landing. Pantsyr-S were part of the air defenses repelling the attack. Russia is reporting 3 civilians killed and 4 wounded.


Ukraine also fired missiles/rockets at Kursk but they were apparently all intercepted.


Misc.

Russian LMUR Izd. 305 strike, location and context unclear.


Russia hits a M-109 (other reports claim a PzH-2000).


Russian Su-25 lobbing S-13 rockets, location and context unclear.


Russian Tor-M1 in action.


Russia has used guided cluster munitions, possibly from a BM-30, with SPBE guided bomblets. We've seen these used in Syria before.


Bulgarian TM-62M anti-tank mine being used by Ukrainian forces.


Russian BMP-3 converted into a command vehicle, with a telescoping camera mast.


Russian repair unit from Center MD working on vehicles damaged in the war. We see large numbers of T-72Bs, some BMP-2s, some MT-LBs, a bunch of trucks including an armored Kamaz artillery tow trucks, a BREM-1, a Linza MRAP CASEVAC, an Iveco Lynx MRAP, and a BTR-80.


Russian fighters with an ASVK-M Kord-M anti-material rifle.


NATO/EU.

Slovakia is apparently handing over another 4 Mi-17 helos to Ukraine.

 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Update.

Russian Ka-52 dodges a MANPADS, location unclear.


NATO/EU.

Slovakia is apparently handing over another 4 Mi-17 helos to Ukraine.

Yes, in total there are 5 helicopters delivered to Ukraina by Slovakia.

These are the serial numbers:
Mi-2: 3301
Mi-17M: 0807, 0821, 0844 and 0847

The Mi-2 and the Mi-17Ms 0807 and 0821 are transported by road. The other two Mi-17s (0844 and 0847) were flown to Ukraine fully armed with B8 rocket pods.

Source: Donated helicopters from Slovakia to Ukraine known


Its is actually remarkable that you see first the MANPADS passing by, and only then the Ka-52 started to eject flares...
So the MANPADS was not distracted by the flares, but its just pure luck that they were not hit.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yes, in total there are 5 helicopters delivered to Ukraina by Slovakia.

These are the serial numbers:
Mi-2: 3301
Mi-17M: 0807, 0821, 0844 and 0847

The Mi-2 and the Mi-17Ms 0807 and 0821 are transported by road. The other two Mi-17s (0844 and 0847) were flown to Ukraine fully armed with B8 rocket pods.

Source: Donated helicopters from Slovakia to Ukraine known


Its is actually remarkable that you see first the MANPADS passing by, and only then the Ka-52 started to eject flares...
So the MANPADS was not distracted by the flares, but its just pure luck that they were not hit.
The claim is that the Vitebsk self-defense suite prevented it. The system involves a directional IR jammer.
 

Kasatka

Member
Its is actually remarkable that you see first the MANPADS passing by, and only then the Ka-52 started to eject flares...
So the MANPADS was not distracted by the flares, but its just pure luck that they were not hit.
Yes. The other thing that it implies is that (either):
- The missile was distracted by the active IR countermeasure system (unsure if equipped in every Alligator).
- There's a doctrine driven reason as of why they don't enable the automatic countermeasure dispenser
- The pilot forgot/neglected to enable the automatic countermeasure dispenser.
- The airspace was contested with other missile launch signatures that could have triggered the system, thus it was disabled to conserve flares.
- The missile detection system is ineffective.
- I'm completely wrong and there's no automatic countermeasure dispenser on the Alligator; in this case, as with the Ka-50, it should at least have produced an audible warning for the pilot.. which in turn brings some questions to the table.

(this list of hypothesis isn't by any means exhaustive/complete)

It's not the first time that I see this behavior (with the MANPADs actually hitting it's target), so it would be kinda interesting to do some guessing around this topic.

edit: posted, after @Feanor .
 

tabu

Member
For those wondering about the "aims of the special operation" - short and simple - "Jihad and the defence of Islam". The Kadyrovites are ignorant people who do not know what Islam means. These people call Jihad their job as mercenaries. Jihad is above all a moral self-improvement. These hired killers are betraying Islam. Chechnya is totally subsidized by Russia.

 

tabu

Member
It seems that while the Russians are shooting at everything from everything (with the corresponding destruction they traditionally don't care about), the Ukrainians, thanks to Western weapons and ISR, manage to get a higher percentage of hits on suitable targets, which is all the more relevant as they have less ammunition.

It is likely that HIMARS are increasingly having a hand in this kind of action.

Now the Russians are beginning to fear that the Crimean bridge will also become a target, even though it is out of range for HIMARS...


 
Hey, guys, love the forum, been reading for some time. I would like to thank to all who contribute with interesting discussions and information.
I have been following the war for some time and I would like to share with you few observations/questions.

As the war has progressed I have begun to notice a tactic the Russian forces have been using as of late, so I am interested in what the experts here in the forum think about it.

The tactic is best described as Sun Tzu's "golden bridge".
I first noticed this at Lyman as the Russians were bypassing the Ukrainians that were still fighting at the city and took the forested area to the West, creating the cauldron, but instead of closing the escape routes and cutting off the Ukrainians, they continued applying pressure from three sides while leaving the western part open for them to pull out.

Similar things have happened in both Zolote and Lysychansk/Severodonetsk pockets. Here also as the escape route for Ukrainians began to shrink, instead of concentrating forces to close off the cauldron, the Russians continued applying heavy pressure across the entire section of the front.
This can partially be explained by the desire to tie down Ukrainians at the front keeping them there to prevent their escape but the pressure applied was far too intensive than was necessary while the pressure at the closing point of the cauldron was too insufficient to cut off the escape route.

As such a deduction imposes itself. Russians are purposely leaving escape routes open while applying heavy pressure and threatening encirclement waiting for the Ukrainians to retreat.

This tactic has, of course, its benefits and downsides.

Downsides:
  1. A portion of the enemy forces retreats to fight another day (how big of a portion can vary greatly)
  2. Enemy can claim an organised/tactical retreat (truthfully/falsely)
  3. Risky maneuver as one/both sides of flanking force can be attacked from several directions and get cut off themselves
Benefits:
  1. Enemy gives up advantageous terrain (prepared defense positions, urban environment, etc.)
  2. Significant losses to the retreating enemy (especially in the equipment department)
  3. Time/losses minimization (avoiding bloody fights such as at Mariupol)
Hoping my observations can start some interesting discussions. I have few others, as well as questions I would like to ask regarding performances of various equipment during the war, but this is enough for now to not take too much of your time.
 

Stampede

Well-Known Member
I found this opinion piece in the ABC of interest regarding an article about a Russian film Solntsepyok that was released in 2021.
Set in Eastern Ukraine in May of 2014, it takes a particular view on events of that time and of course this has significance today.


I have not see the film so are going on the journalists opinion that it is very much a one sided interpretation of events with a Russian bias.
The suggestion is, did this film in part help set a mindset within Russia for supporting a future escalation of conflict with Ukraine.

An unanswered question, but I do wonder when did Putin actually decide to set the wheels in motion to invade Ukraine beyond the existing conflict in the separatist regions.

It takes time to write and produce a film.
It takes time to prepare for a major military operation.

2021 must of being a busy year in Russia for making decisions, or were these decisions in fact made much earlier?


Regards S
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Yes. The other thing that it implies is that (either):
- The missile was distracted by the active IR countermeasure system (unsure if equipped in every Alligator).
- There's a doctrine driven reason as of why they don't enable the automatic countermeasure dispenser
- The pilot forgot/neglected to enable the automatic countermeasure dispenser.
- The airspace was contested with other missile launch signatures that could have triggered the system, thus it was disabled to conserve flares.
- The missile detection system is ineffective.
- I'm completely wrong and there's no automatic countermeasure dispenser on the Alligator; in this case, as with the Ka-50, it should at least have produced an audible warning for the pilot.. which in turn brings some questions to the table.

(this list of hypothesis isn't by any means exhaustive/complete)

It's not the first time that I see this behavior (with the MANPADs actually hitting it's target), so it would be kinda interesting to do some guessing around this topic.

edit: posted, after @Feanor .
Whats the minimum arming distance of most manpads ?
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
It seems that while the Russians are shooting at everything from everything (with the corresponding destruction they traditionally don't care about), the Ukrainians, thanks to Western weapons and ISR, manage to get a higher percentage of hits on suitable targets, which is all the more relevant as they have less ammunition.

It is likely that HIMARS are increasingly having a hand in this kind of action.

Now the Russians are beginning to fear that the Crimean bridge will also become a target, even though it is out of range for HIMARS...


Unless the US supplies the ATACMS for the HIMARS (or a Tomahawk, I suppose...), I cant see the Crimean land bridge as being a target.

On the other hand, the 3 bridges over the Dnepr at Antonivka, Prydniprovske and Kozatske are within HIMARS range. There is no conceivable way the RU havnt wired those to blow so the UKR should give up any thoughts of capturing them intact. Destroy them now, (can a HIMARS strike do that ?) and turn the Kherson district into the largest RU POW camp in the world.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I found this opinion piece in the ABC of interest regarding an article about a Russian film Solntsepyok that was released in 2021.
Set in Eastern Ukraine in May of 2014, it takes a particular view on events of that time and of course this has significance today.


I have not see the film so are going on the journalists opinion that it is very much a one sided interpretation of events with a Russian bias.
The suggestion is, did this film in part help set a mindset within Russia for supporting a future escalation of conflict with Ukraine.

An unanswered question, but I do wonder when did Putin actually decide to set the wheels in motion to invade Ukraine beyond the existing conflict in the separatist regions.

It takes time to write and produce a film.
It takes time to prepare for a major military operation.

2021 must of being a busy year in Russia for making decisions, or were these decisions in fact made much earlier?


Regards S
Solntsepyek was part of a series of elaborate Wagner recruiting efforts. A new film, Granite, just came out, and an older film, Tourist, also exists. I doubt its directly related to this invasion.

Unless the US supplies the ATACMS for the HIMARS (or a Tomahawk, I suppose...), I cant see the Crimean land bridge as being a target.

On the other hand, the 3 bridges over the Dnepr at Antonivka, Prydniprovske and Kozatske are within HIMARS range. There is no conceivable way the RU havnt wired those to blow so the UKR should give up any thoughts of capturing them intact. Destroy them now, (can a HIMARS strike do that ?) and turn the Kherson district into the largest RU POW camp in the world.
It reminds me of an old Russian joke.
A little kid says "Daddy I caught a bear".
And the dad says "Good, bring it here".
"I can't"
"Well then you come here"
"He won't let me"

EDIT: By the way, what makes you so certain Russia mined the bridges? I would have thought there is no conceivable way the entire BSF doesn't have a crane operator, and yet...
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
EDIT: By the way, what makes you so certain Russia mined the bridges? I would have thought there is no conceivable way the entire BSF doesn't have a crane operator, and yet...
Could even the RU commanders be so mind-numbingly stupid as to not mine a critical set of chokepoints ? If a UKR counter offensive actually gets going and threatens Kherson, will the RU put Crimea at risk but not wiring the bridges to blow ?

I take your point, but I have to think someone on the RU side has considered this, and the RU are good at blowing stuff up.....
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Daily Telegraph is and always be part of western mainstream media as strong supporters for Ukraine side. However when they usual talk on Russia will lost, Russia will collapse, West will grove Russia to total submission etc.

Thus put this kind of article (and they are not the only one among Western Mainstream media), shown how big the doubt on Western supporters already are. Question is what kind of Ukraine victory that will raise back support.

It is not surprising that any Russian fall back is pictures by Western Analysts/Pundits as big Ukraine win. Like Russian fall back from Snake Island is being pictures of Ukraine big success, Russia fall back from Kiev as Routed, and Ukraine routed in Donbass as smart strategic repossitioning.

However those propaganda seems not satisfying the doubt in the west anymore. Thus I do sense of all fronts, The South against Kherson seems what Ukraine try to sell toward their supporters in the West. However those big counter offensive in the South so far only getting possitioning changes. The Ukranian got some gain in south side of the front while Russia gain something else in central side of the front.

Seems many in the Western population still not realise (or being hide), the defining war is in Donbas. If Ukraine lost Donbas, they are not only loosing big part of their equipment but also big part of their most season army. That will open Russia potential offensive on other front including South. Everything will depend on Donbas.

Western pundits rightly put this war is war of attrition. What they are shown more is how good Ukraine create attrition toward Russian sources. However not talking on how the Attrition costs toward Ukraine it self.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Hey, guys, love the forum, been reading for some time. I would like to thank to all who contribute with interesting discussions and information.
I have been following the war for some time and I would like to share with you few observations/questions.

As the war has progressed I have begun to notice a tactic the Russian forces have been using as of late, so I am interested in what the experts here in the forum think about it.

The tactic is best described as Sun Tzu's "golden bridge".
I first noticed this at Lyman as the Russians were bypassing the Ukrainians that were still fighting at the city and took the forested area to the West, creating the cauldron, but instead of closing the escape routes and cutting off the Ukrainians, they continued applying pressure from three sides while leaving the western part open for them to pull out.

Similar things have happened in both Zolote and Lysychansk/Severodonetsk pockets. Here also as the escape route for Ukrainians began to shrink, instead of concentrating forces to close off the cauldron, the Russians continued applying heavy pressure across the entire section of the front.
This can partially be explained by the desire to tie down Ukrainians at the front keeping them there to prevent their escape but the pressure applied was far too intensive than was necessary while the pressure at the closing point of the cauldron was too insufficient to cut off the escape route.

As such a deduction imposes itself. Russians are purposely leaving escape routes open while applying heavy pressure and threatening encirclement waiting for the Ukrainians to retreat.

This tactic has, of course, its benefits and downsides.

Downsides:
  1. A portion of the enemy forces retreats to fight another day (how big of a portion can vary greatly)
  2. Enemy can claim an organised/tactical retreat (truthfully/falsely)
  3. Risky maneuver as one/both sides of flanking force can be attacked from several directions and get cut off themselves
Benefits:
  1. Enemy gives up advantageous terrain (prepared defense positions, urban environment, etc.)
  2. Significant losses to the retreating enemy (especially in the equipment department)
  3. Time/losses minimization (avoiding bloody fights such as at Mariupol)
Hoping my observations can start some interesting discussions. I have few others, as well as questions I would like to ask regarding performances of various equipment during the war, but this is enough for now to not take too much of your time.
I don't think this was intentional. I think Russia genuinely tried to cut off and encircle for destruction Ukrainian forces defending Severodonets-Lisichansk first, and Zolotoe-Gorksoe afterwards. Both failed to do what they were aiming for. Pro-Russian sources were reporting, likely from internal sources, that Ukrainian POWs are imminent. Yet they never materialized. I think this was another failure. Russia can advance but not fast enough to do this. I think Russia can demolish Ukrainian forces, but primarily through superior and overwhelming firepower.
 
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