Over time seals and bilge pumps can deteriorate and vehicles have to be checked to ensure they can swim and stay afloat. A former M-113 commander [the same chap I mentioned in a previous post] explained to me the laborious checks which have to be performed before the vehicle enters the water.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
If it's BTR-4, I think the Indonesian marines used to test BTR-4 for trial and they didn't like it very much. One of the reason for it is that the vehicle is unstable in the water or something along that line (or maybe front or back heavy, I don't remember on top of my head)
And thats when the vehicle was preppped to go into water. I saw BTR-80s go into a lake during armed forces day shows, but pretty sure if they fell head first into the lake off of a bridge, they would be goners.
The amount of bloating is dependent upon how long the body has been immersed for. So if they haven't bloated to much then they won't have been in the water long. There are also the critters in the water like worms and that who attach themselves to the body or burrow into it. Not nice if the body has been in the water some time.
Two years ago a USMC AAV sank killing 9 marines. It was a specialised amphibious assault vehicle but the vehicle was in poor condition and should never have left the vehicle yard, let alone been onboard ship and taking marines down the ramp into the ocean. The poor buggers couldn't even get out and so drowned. So it happens even with a force that specialises in amphibious warfare.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
There seems to be an explosion in Berdyansk, very close to the place where several landing ships exploded in March.
Does anyone know what was exploded?
Does anyone know what was exploded?
Kasatka
Member
Regarding the shopping mall incident. A friend posted a plausible explanation. It looks like there is a big industrial complex very close to the shopping mall. From what I could gather with google translate, it looks like some sort of "machinery" fab. Makes sense for it to be targeted? You be the judge.
If the UA claim that what was used were Kh-22s, is to be believed, then it makes sense for those missiles to have missed (in this case, catastrophically so) and hit something else. The CEP for is of 200-300 meters by some sources, and 3.1 miles for others. Maybe somebody has a better number, but I think we can agree that it's very likely that an old version of the missile with old gyros could have been used.
I would be tempted to say with high confidence that what can be seen on the first frames of this video is a Kh-22 hitting, the place looks very similar to that factory I mentioned earlier:
Angle from the park to the north of the fab for location confirmation:
Hope this piques your interest.
If the UA claim that what was used were Kh-22s, is to be believed, then it makes sense for those missiles to have missed (in this case, catastrophically so) and hit something else. The CEP for is of 200-300 meters by some sources, and 3.1 miles for others. Maybe somebody has a better number, but I think we can agree that it's very likely that an old version of the missile with old gyros could have been used.
I would be tempted to say with high confidence that what can be seen on the first frames of this video is a Kh-22 hitting, the place looks very similar to that factory I mentioned earlier:
Angle from the park to the north of the fab for location confirmation:
Hope this piques your interest.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #3,827
Russian sources claim they hit the rail line behind the trade center and the explosion caught the trade center. Ukrainian sources claim there were two strikes, one hit the intended target and the other hit the trade center. We can see the fire burning behind the trade center, indicating what got hit.
Colonelcassad
ТЦ в Кременчуге. Вид с дрона. С воздухе можно заметить горящий объект за торговым центром. Согласно заявлению МО РФ, там находилась техника и боеприпасы, детонация которых и привела к пожару в ТЦ. В идеале, нужен панорамный вид сверху или спутниковые фотографии.
t.me
Colonelcassad
Вечером публиковался район второго прилета в Кременчуге. А вот и кадры удара подъехали. Видео ниже.
t.me
Повёрнутые на Z войне
Зеля там выкладывает "шокирующие кадры попадания в ТЦ" , на этом спутниковом снимке четко видно, что попали в ЖД за ТЦ, вопрос лишь в том, что на путях стояло, что задело взрывом даже торговый центр.
t.me
Video of a strike landing.
Colonelcassad
Видео удара в Кременчуге. Что именно там так сдетонировали пока не уточняют. По заявлениям МО РФ целями были иностранные вооружения и боеприпасы.
t.me
More footage of the strike and damage. Note how people in the two bottom videos are already fleeing and then we see the strike land. I think the strike they're running from is the first, and then we see the second land. The top video is of the damage to an industrial facility.
Colonelcassad
Видео прилетов по заводу в Кременчуге + видео воронки на территории завода. Это к вопросу о том, что "стреляли в ТЦ". Как и заявлялось - целью был завод. ТЦ стал жертвой вторичной детонации БК после ракетных ударов. Что конечно не помешало попыткам закатить истерику про "террористические удары".
t.me
So the initial account of "Russia hit a shopping center of no military value" was propaganda. What we have is a fairly careless strike against a probable military target, and civilians killed by collateral damage, which is exactly what we would expect from Russian strikes (and indeed have seen up to this point).
Kasatka
Member
Well, if you know your CEP is garbage and you go full V1 WW2 style on a civilian area... calling that "colateral" seems a little bleach, especially for modern standards. I would also take into account the usage of missiles with 1/2-1 kT (conventional RDX) warheads against a densely populated area. Thus I would argue that there's still some merit to that claim that "Russia hit a shopping center of no military value", though not in those specific terms.
I digress.. the usage of heavy arty against populated areas has already been discussed at-nauseam, and I'm really not a fan of it; neither the discussion or the topic.
What can be concluded IMO: It was not targeted for any specific psychological warfare or other military effect. Either the fab, or the rail (that I totally missed on the map!) being the intended target, proves this is just the good ol' Bear being the brute it's always been (because command knew about the risk, and they still went with it). It just happened to coincide with the timeframe of calibre cruise missile strikes on Kiev, which makes it look even worse.
I digress.. the usage of heavy arty against populated areas has already been discussed at-nauseam, and I'm really not a fan of it; neither the discussion or the topic.
What can be concluded IMO: It was not targeted for any specific psychological warfare or other military effect. Either the fab, or the rail (that I totally missed on the map!) being the intended target, proves this is just the good ol' Bear being the brute it's always been (because command knew about the risk, and they still went with it). It just happened to coincide with the timeframe of calibre cruise missile strikes on Kiev, which makes it look even worse.
Well, it serves little value to Russia to deliberately attack a shopping mall full of civilians using what little precision guided weapons (KH-22s are not the most precise and they are probably old soviet stock) they have left.
But it does not reduce their responsibilities and the wanton lack of care/total disregard of the possibility of collateral damage in the process.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #3,830
You're not wrong. But remember from nearly day one of the war Russia's line has been that Ukraine is hiding objects of military value near civilian infrastructure on purpose. Again, remember the shopping center in Kiev that had artillery hiding underneath. It's pretty thoroughly dishonest to yell as loud as possible about Russia striking a shopping mall with civilians with rockets, when really they struck another target, and one of probable military value. This is an example of why Ukrainian state narrative is not to be trusted. This doesn't lend Russia credibility or excuse them, but it certainly paints the other side in a certain light.
There have been some interesting claims from Moscow about the shopping centre e.g blaming the Ukraine suggesting the centre was known to be empty collateral damage suggests perhaps this was caused by secondary explosion the BBC did a fact check to state the first missile hit the shopping centre and next the factory apparently there is film footage Al-Jazeera and Reuters also state a missile hit the shopping centre and not collateral damage people are being killed here so we should remember this before hasty comments without substantion
Ananda
The Bunker Group
We have enough videos showing Ukrainian shelling civilians Target in Donetsk. We have enough videos shown Ukrainian using civilians facilities around their military equipment and fortification.
This's not an excuse to Russia, but saying Ukraine not doing the same thing is also not correct. Both ways on doing war basically making sure collateral damage is going to be high.
Also personally I'm so sick on Western media attitude on claiming Russian collateral damage as war crime. When what collateral damage US and allies doing in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan doing more damage then this war.
Collateral damage is just fact of war. US precision weapon has better CP then Russian ones in average. Does the US targeting bazzar in Iraq is collateral damage or war crime ?
This's not an excuse to Russia, but saying Ukraine not doing the same thing is also not correct. Both ways on doing war basically making sure collateral damage is going to be high.
Also personally I'm so sick on Western media attitude on claiming Russian collateral damage as war crime. When what collateral damage US and allies doing in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan doing more damage then this war.
Collateral damage is just fact of war. US precision weapon has better CP then Russian ones in average. Does the US targeting bazzar in Iraq is collateral damage or war crime ?
Kasatka
Member
On some deeper thought. I am willing to bet on the fact that the actual target was the factory. The fact that an overwhelmingly unprecise weapon was chosen, would indicate that the target was big, area-wide. If the rail had been the intended target, I would believe that a Kh-35/other type of more advanced cruise missile would have been more effective (higher probability of hitting) and efficient (less colateral).
This, again indicates two different situations: either 1) advanced cruise-missiles are really short on stock and the wrong tool was used for the job or 2) the fab was the intended target and the idea of using Kh-22s didn't seem unreasonable (although it was pretty disastrous). Bonus, 3) Command just doesn't give a damn, and whatever is available will be used before it is expended elsewhere.
This, again indicates two different situations: either 1) advanced cruise-missiles are really short on stock and the wrong tool was used for the job or 2) the fab was the intended target and the idea of using Kh-22s didn't seem unreasonable (although it was pretty disastrous). Bonus, 3) Command just doesn't give a damn, and whatever is available will be used before it is expended elsewhere.
I've read some estimates of Russia using around 2000 missiles in this war if Russia had only hit military targets I think this war would of been over it seems like they don't care what they hit perhaps it's a case of making claims of success to show to the president they are effective
Ananda
The Bunker Group
СМОТРИ
⚡️Я даже не буду гадать, на что надеется Зеленский. Это абсолютно не важно, что он думает, на что он надеется. Не он принимает решения. Принимают решения в Вашингтоне — Лавров ▶️ @smotri_media
t.me
I don't speak Russian, so check bit through online translation. Basically Lavrov say at this point no need to talk to Zelensky, since all decision made by Washington.
This shown how Moscow want settlement with Washington, and they at this stage basically already don't care with Zelensky.
If no Western supplies that continue coming, this War yes already over, and Ukraine armed forces basically collapse. Ukraine already loosing most their ex USSR inventory, already loosing their MIC, so most Russian missiles are Targeting on destroying their existing inventory and most importantly their MIC.
Kasatka
Member
In warfare you don't fight with the army you wish you had, you fight with the one you have. Paraphrasing some quote here.
That aside, the AS-4 can per-desgn be used in the A/G role, although clearly not it's primary. It's simply not as precise, as I guess one can infer from this sad demonstration. This does not negate it's usefulness against area-wide targets (thus my hypothesis).
Call it propaganda if you will, but these types of acts that reek of utter ineptitude (the one that Feonor always likes to allude, about the shopping center in Kiev, seems a reasonable exception and there might be others that some are most likely willing to post in response to this) are playing in Ukraine's favor to: 1) convince Europe and the rest to get their act together 2) send more and better weapons and equipment 3) extend the conflict to bleed Russia's strength (we'll see how that works out..), geopolitical grasp and soft-power.
Yes, just as it happened to the US with their own conflicts in the middle-east; although differently as they did manage to convince most of the world that their war was "just", not only in wording but making most of their allies participate. I find it rather amusing that we are comparing this, but here we are. In those terms, colateral by precision weapons seems much more excusable than, colateral by dumbfire of grad rockets, smerch and.. well, now this.
In my view, the defending side should be excused of such "propaganda" tactics, especially if it's existence is hanging on a thread. The fact that they where hiding stuff in a shopping mall while Kiev was being virtually besieged in March sounds more like an act out of desperation than anything really tactically sound to me.
Then, as Ananda said, without western supplies this war would be over very soon, although I would not exclude the conflict taking another turn into the low intensity warfare kind'a train-wreck if that'd happened. I believe that Europe and USA helping out, is also to avoid serious security black hole in a hypothetic "occupide" unstable Ukraine that could bring very negative consequences to the entire region.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #3,838
I haven't seen an actual strike on the shopping mall. One theory being presented by pro-Russian sources is that the secondary explosions from the munitions they hit damaged the shopping center. Another possibility is that the missiles are old. The missile itself is from the '60s. To the best of my knowledge it was in production through the 80's. If production didn't resume in the past 20 years, then the "youngest" missiles are over 30 years old. Using AShMs as LACMs inherently is atypical and could render the targeting less effective. It's still not entirely clear, let's see what else comes out.
What I would like to see is Russian Intel if any that showed the perceived target was actually being used for military purposes. If it was then it is merely Russian forces using crap weapons with little regard to civilian casualties IMO but if no such Intel exists then it was potentially a pointless attack and thus possibly a war crime.
Kasatka
Member
Just found this. Most likely shows that the impact point was either at the train track intersection behind the mall, where that "bridge thing" is or closer to the mall. Either way, the size of the warhead could definitely make the mall blow up without direct impact.
I'm very skeptical at this time that the Kh-22 would actually have been targeted at the mall per-se, since I'd expect it to miss it. Also, a kinzhal/iskander could have done the job much better like in the previous iteration of Russia vs shopping mall.
Well I think this kinda wraps this up. There's two impacts. I thought the second explosion might have been the so called "secondary explosion".
Either both Kh-22s were really off target, and instead of hitting the train station got way out there, or the target was that factory and they missed by less. Anyway, this is real bad press, and I really wouldn't blame Ukraine for capitalizing on it.