The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Zmeiniy Island.

We have reports of major combat action at Zmeiniy Island. It appears Ukraine launched a strike using Bayraktars to take out the air defenses on Zmeiniy, Russian sources confirm losses of a Tor, a Strela-10, and a ZU-23-2 (also a small landing ship and a Coast Guard boat). This was followed by an Su-27 bombing strike on the island. After this things get murky. It appears Ukraine attempted a combine aerial and naval landing on the island, but this failed. Russian sources claimed downed Ukrainian jets (1 Su-24, 1 Su-27) and helos (3 Mi-8s), 2 or 3 (sources differ) Bayraktars, and there is footage of Ukrainian vessels heading away from the island, possibly due to an aborted landing. Russian sources also claim (unsubstantiated) a destroyed Ukrainian landing boat. The Russian story is that a Ukrainian boat and the helos actually made landfall and were then hit.


Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Odessa got hit, again.


Artillery exchanges continue on the Nikolaev-Kherson axis.


Russian flag was raised in Snegirevka, Nikolaev region. Note, this town is on the eastern outskirts of Nikolaev region, north-north-east of Kherson city.


Russian National Guard patrolling the beach in Kherson region.


Russian National Guard handing out St. George ribbons in Kherson region.


Turchak, the General Secretary of Russia's ruling United Russia party, in a recent visit to Kherson area together with head of the DNR Pushilin, stated that Russia is here to stay in Kherson. It appears Russia might be planning direct annexation of Kherson region. If this is true, it's likely that annexation of LDNR areas is also possible. He also states that Kherson is part of the "large family of Russia" and promises lower energy costs and transport costs due to Russian subsidies (internal pricing).


Ukrainian MiG-29 over Odessa with an air-to-air payload. Unclear if related to recent action at Zmeiniy.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk

We have a report of two rebel tankers taken POW by Ukraine being tortured. Reliability is uncertain, but... Warning graphic footage.


We have a report of two US fighters wounded near Zaporozhye area.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Ukrainian pontoon bridge in Kharkov region gets hit.


Explosions in Severnaya Saltovka, north-east of Kharkov, likely a Russian strike.


Destroyed Russian T-90M northern Kharkov region.


There is a report of a refugee column out of Volchansk heading to Kharkov being fired on by a Ukrainian checkpoint.


Alleged US Phoenix Ghost loitering munition went down in Kharkov region.


Ukrainian Tu-143 shot down, Kharkov region.


Russian Msta-S operating in Kharkov region. The artillerymen state these are new howitzers from 2019, meaning they are likely Msta-SM (2S19M2) or possible upgraded 2S19M1.


Volchansk in Kharkov area. LNR Troops of the Interior have taken over security duties in the area. The line between rebel forces, Russian irregulars, and Russian regulars, is starting to blur.


The Izyum Salient.

Russian SpN in action near Liman. Warning footage of corpses.


Russian TOS-1 strikes near Krasniy Liman.


Russian 2S7M in action near Izyum. They were previously reported operating near Kharkov. It's unclear whether they actually moved, this is a different 2S7 unit, or the initial reports were inaccurate.


Destroyed light armor in Borovaya, near Izyum. One is definitely a Ukrainian BTR-3, the other is a BMP-2 allegedly Ukrainian.


Ukrainian BTR-3s, one destroyed, one captured, near Izyum.


3 destroyed vehicles near Liman, two are BTR-80s with slat armor, and one is a T-72B3mod'16. All 3 are claimed as Ukrainian, though the latter very obviously isn't. Unclear on the BTR-80s.


Ukrainian T-64BV captured, Izyum Salient. Allegedly it had a tool kit with Nazi symbols.


A Ukrainian infiltrator team with anti-tank weapons and mines was allegedly taken out in the woods near Izyum.


Russian SpN operating near Liman.


Captured Ukrainian weapons, near Liman. Milan-2 ATGMs, Stingers, AT-4s, NLAWs, various AKs, and a Stugna-P.


Ukrainian BTR (70?) captured in the Izyum Salient, with weapons.


Assorted footage, Izyum.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
LDNR Front.

LNR forces in action, outskirts of Severodonetsk, near Purdovka.


Allegedly Ukrainian tank knocked out in Avdeevka.


Russian T-72B3mod'16 in action, LNR area. This is likely somewhere near Severodonetsk.


Chechen fighters near Voevodovka, LNR area. Kadyrov claims the town has fallen. In the video we can see what appear to be overrun Ukrainian positions, sporting a DP-27, a M2 .50cal, and a captured BMP-1. Warning footage of corpses.


Russian mercenaries operating in and around Popasnaya. Note the allegedly captured MT-12 Rapira AT-gun being used as artillery.


After several assaults by Russian mercenaries, Popasnaya has fallen.


The Energomashspetstal' factory in Kramatorsk has been hit pretty hard.


Alleged air defense intercepts over Alchevsk, context unclear.


Ukrainian Kozak armored car captured by the LNR 7th Brigade, near Rubezhnoe.


A DNR T-72A uparmored with K-1 tiles. Note, this is the first time I see rebel forces using the T-72A, and I suspect these are recent deliveries.


LNR sniper platoon cleaning weapons.


Mariupol'.

Rebel forces claim they're gaining ground inside Azovstal'. At this point the plan appears to be fairly clear. Russian and rebel forces will nip at the edges of Azovstal', keeping up pressure on the defenders, and continue heavy shelling. The idea is to wear down the defenders, and force them to burn through their resources.


Tank firing towards Azovstal'.


D-20s shelling Azovstal'. The label says Marines but neither the cannon nor the uniforms match. This is probably DNR 9th Regiment.


D-20s and Grads firing on Azovstal'. Note we have footage of Grads being used as direct-fire.


Ship artillery firing on Azovstal'.


Rebel fighters sweeping the areas around Azovstal'.


Rebel fighters near Azovstal'.


Ukrainian MRAP captured, possibly knocked out, in Mariupol'. Note this didn't happen recently, it's from the assault on the city.


Assorted footage, Mariupol'.


DNR 9th Regiment MBTs on the streets of Mariupol'.


Ukrainian land mines getting cleared off the roads around Mariupol'.


Civilians evacuated from Azovstal' have arrived at village Bezymennoe, DNR area. Allegedly ~500 have been evacuated.


DNR mobile observation post, near Azovstal'.


The West.

Damaged substations near L'vov.


There are reports that western sourced body armor was being sold on the side by corrupt officials in L'vov.


Russia.

It appears Kadyrov has set up a training conveyor in Gudermes for volunteers heading to fight in Ukraine. It appears that these volunteer fighters are being paid by both Kadyrov and by Russian MoD. It's unclear whether these fighters actually enlisting in the Russian military or if Kadyrov has essentially created an unofficial structure. The red striped undershirts seem to indicate affiliation with Russian troops of the interior, but this could be deceptive.


Russian National Guard returning to Tyumen' after a deployment to Ukraine.


Russian villages of Zhuravlevka and Nehoteevka have been hit by shelling again.


Russian security forces arrested extremists in Rostov region. They are allegedly tied to Ukraine.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Misc.

Russian mechanized column in combat, location unclear. The first thing that jumps out at me is their apparently unwillingness to close with their targets. They hang back, hide behind the armor, and throw a lot of firepower down range. The second thing that jumps out is the Soviet flag chevron on one of the soldiers.


Russian strikes, location and context unclear.


Allegedly a Ukrainian S-300 battery hit by a Smerch strike. Location unclear.


Destroyed and knocked out armored vehicles, allegedly Ukrainian. We have what I think is a BMP, literally ripped to pieces. Unclear whose. We have a Ukrainian T-64BV, knocked out. We also have 2 Kozak armored cars, destroyed, Ukrainian. Note the spool of wire on the front of the hood of the first. We've seen both of these destroyed vehicles, in the Izyum Salient, before. It's not however clear whether all this footage is from the same area. We lastly have a downed jet, possibly Su-25, unclear whose.


Allegedly a downed Bayraktar TB-2 in Ukraine. Location unclear.


Russian Ka-52 night strike. Note the use of ATGMs instead of the rocket pods.


Georgian fighters in Ukraine, get hit by something (mortar?) and one of them is wounded. Location unclear.


Russian or rebel forces using AGS-17s for indirect fire.


Russian military train operating somewhere in Ukraine.


Ukrainian soldier with a PRSL-1 American RPG-7 clone.


Ukrainian National Guard soldier firing an M32 grenade launcher. Location and context unclear.


There are reports that Ukraine plans to use it's Mistral MANPADS on pickup trucks for mobile air defense.


Ukraine's 1st Vinnitsya Rifles Btln from the 79th Brigade reports large casualties. Apparently out of 110 service members, the group on the video is all that's left of the 3rd company which got surrounded and had to fight their way out. The speaker claims they were up against tanks, artillery, and air power, and only got 2 grenades and their rifles to fight with. They also show off poor quality of body armor, falling apart at the seams. They claim they got civilian walkie-talkies as their only radios, and no NVGs or thermals.

He also says when they arrived they weren't given information on where they were or what their mission was, then immediately came under artillery and mortar fires. Other units around them withdrew, and they were left behind.


Ukrainian fighters declare they don't intend to take any prisoners.


VDV recon team in Ukraine, I suspect the footage is staged based on some of the shots.


Ukrainian Su-25, low altitude fly-by. Location and context unclear.


Russian artillery column in Ukraine, note the air cover.


Ukraine's 2S22 Bogdana howitzer is apparently heading into combat.


NATO/EU.

Ukrainian service members traveling westward to train on the M777 howitzers they will be receiving.


Some of the Polish T-72M1s supplied to Ukraine came upgraded with a new FCS.


Ukrainian forces have apparently taken delivery of Brimstones, location unclear.


Germany won't supply the Gepard AAA for the time being to Ukraine, due to difficulties sourcing ammo.

 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Ukrainian Air Force is still in the fight at day 70+

1. The Ukrainian Air Force seems to be concentrating operations around the Odessa and Donetsk regions. In the last 24 hours, unverified sources have mentioned that:

● Ukrainian Mig-29s and Su-27s have seen action in the South.​
● Ukrainian Su-25s have seen action in the East.​

Feanor said:
Russian sources also claim (unsubstantiated) a destroyed Ukrainian landing boat. The Russian story is that a Ukrainian boat and the helos actually made landfall and were then hit.
2. Any Russian claim of Ukraine attempting a landing on Snake Island (aka Zmeiniy Island) is motivated by the Russian losses there. It is tactically illogical as Ukraine can’t resupply the island even if they land, as they don’t have a navy anymore — Ukrainians are not that stupid. The volume of Russian misinformation seems to be increasing; but the quality and thought put into these lies seem to be decreasing.

3. @Feanor, this is pure Russian propaganda bullsh!f and even you must know that it is motivated to hide the loss of a Russian landing craft. It’s a good try by their propaganda department — will work on Russian fanboys but not the rest of us here.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Ukrainian Air Force is still in the fight at day 70+

1. The Ukrainian Air Force seems to be concentrating operations around the Odessa and Donetsk regions. In the last 24 hours, unverified sources have mentioned that:

● Ukrainian Mig-29s and Su-27s have seen action in the South.​
● Ukrainian Su-25s have seen action in the East.​


2. Any Russian claim of Ukraine attempting a landing on Snake Island (aka Zmeiniy Island) is motivated by the Russian losses there. It is tactically illogical as Ukraine can’t resupply the island even if they land, as they don’t have a navy anymore — Ukrainians are not that stupid. The volume of Russian misinformation seems to be increasing; but the quality and thought put into these lies seem to be decreasing.

3. @Feanor, this is pure Russian propaganda bullsh!f and even you must know that it is motivated to hide the loss of a Russian landing craft. It’s a good try by their propaganda department — will work on Russian fanboys but not the rest of us here.
Several points. First off, Russia isn't hiding the loss of the landing craft. Nor is it possible to hide, the destruction is on camera. Second off, I'm not sold that Ukraine really can't resupply the island. It's a very small island, and a landing force could in theory be resupplied by air and by small boats. Third off, Russian sources are claiming the destruction of a very specific and rare Ukrainian landing boat, the Stanislav. It should be easy to disprove if untrue. I suggest we keep an eye out for the landing boat in question (one of only two of the type). Fouth-off, it's not clear what the purpose of the landing might have been. It could have been a fast raid intended to capture high value POWs, or destroy something that may have survived the strike. It's really not clear. Fourth off, Russia's claim is that the Mi-8s were landing troops when they went down. Meaning the wreckage should be on the island. That will serve as another data point that would allow us to confirm the facts.

On the subject of Ukrainian stupidity or lack thereof. I don't believe Ukraine is any better at planning these operations then Russia, quite possible much worse. I believe that what we have is a classic proxy war. The intel, much of the recon, and the planning, come from foreign advisors. I suspect that Russia outclasses Ukraine in C4ISR on a scale comparable to how NATO outclasses Russia.

Last but not least, I have not seen any increase in the volume of Russian misniformation. If you have a way to quantify this metric, let me know, I'll be interested to see what you're referring to. My assessment of the incident at Zmeiniy is that Ukraine launched a strike. Russia took significant damage. The rest so far is a claim by Russia substantiated only by the satellite images of Ukrainian vessels apparently moving away from Zmeiniy. I've logged the entire claim chain here because the sources are multiple and somewhat contradictory. Further information will show which if any of Russia's claims are true.
 

Twain

Active Member
Allegedly a downed Bayraktar TB-2 in Ukraine. Location unclear.


looks like Reissued footage of the bayraktar, It was shot down, On April 27, almost 2 weeks ago.

Number 6 on the list of bayraktars

Look at the 35 second mark of the video and compare to



IIRC these pictures have been re-used multiple times now
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Learning from and replying to Feanor

1. The past 6 days has seen Ukrainian forces execute a limited counteroffensive north and northeast of Kharkiv that has produced significant results.

Several points. First off, Russia isn't hiding the loss of the landing craft. Nor is it possible to hide, the destruction is on camera.
2. Which makes it stupid to try. IMHO. I am sure more information with greater context will eventually emerge.

Second off, I'm not sold that Ukraine really can't resupply the island. It's a very small island, and a landing force could in theory be resupplied by air and by small boats.
3. You do you; and it’s not easy to keep track of who is doing what. Unless shown proof, I don’t usually start with the assumption that any party — Russian or Ukrainian is tactically illogical, all the time. Ukraine maintained a small trip wire force at the start of the war and it no longer serves the same purpose. To risk a landing? I don’t see it.

Third off, Russian sources are claiming the destruction of a very specific and rare Ukrainian landing boat, the Stanislav. It should be easy to disprove if untrue. I suggest we keep an eye out for the landing boat in question (one of only two of the type).
4. If it is a Russian claim, you are better suited to find the proof. Ukrainian sources are not going to be of much help. Let us keep a look out for more context.

Fouth-off, it's not clear what the purpose of the landing might have been. It could have been a fast raid intended to capture high value POWs, or destroy something that may have survived the strike. It's really not clear.
5. That is why I don’t buy the Russian story — it’s tactically unsound.

Fifth off, Russia's claim is that the Mi-8s were landing troops when they went down. Meaning the wreckage should be on the island. That will serve as another data point that would allow us to confirm the facts.
6. Thank you for explaining. Appreciate your regular updates.

On the subject of Ukrainian stupidity or lack thereof. I don't believe Ukraine is any better at planning these operations then Russia, quite possible much worse. I believe that what we have is a classic proxy war. The intel, much of the recon, and the planning, come from foreign advisors. I suspect that Russia outclasses Ukraine in C4ISR on a scale comparable to how NATO outclasses Russia.
7. No doubt.

Last but not least, I have not seen any increase in the volume of Russian misniformation. If you have a way to quantify this metric, let me know, I'll be interested to see what you're referring to. My assessment of the incident at Zmeiniy is that Ukraine launched a strike. Russia took significant damage. The rest so far is a claim by Russia substantiated only by the satellite images of Ukrainian vessels apparently moving away from Zmeiniy. I've logged the entire claim chain here because the sources are multiple and somewhat contradictory. Further information will show which if any of Russia's claims are true.
8. So you are saying Russian misinformation is normally this high. Got it.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Unless shown proof, I don’t usually assume that any party — Russian or Ukrainian is tactically illogical all the time. Ukraine maintained a small trip wire force at the start of the war and it no longer serves the same purpose. To risk a landing? I don’t see it.
I don't believe it was a tripwire force. I don't believe it was a strictly military force at all. It was a Coast Guard force likely doing regular law enforcement/border patrol duties. Ukraine's Zmeiniy Island station in it's prewar capacity should not necessarily be viewed solely through the prism of conflict with Russia. It likely had more to do with smuggling issues around the Romanian border.

If it is a Russian claim, you are better suited to find the proof. Ukrainian sources are not going to me of much help.
Two things would work here. A picture of the Stanislav still afloat after the date of the alleged distruction would disprove it. A photo of the wreckage would prove it.

So you are saying Russian misinformation is normally this high. Got it.
It's been pretty high this entire conflict. To the point where official statements are mostly best left ignored. The Zmeiniy Island action is pretty major both the part confirmed by footage from the Ukrainian side and the part claimed by Russia. It's also part of an evolving pattern of struggle over the sea lanes around Odessa. This is the only reason I chose to provide the Russian claims in this case. The scale of Russian claims is such that any footage decent footage of the tiny island would pretty much automatically prove or disprove Russia's claims. The debris field from 3 destroyed Mi-8s alone would be huge.
 

T.C.P

Active Member
I don't believe it was a tripwire force. I don't believe it was a strictly military force at all. It was a Coast Guard force likely doing regular law enforcement/border patrol duties. Ukraine's Zmeiniy Island station in it's prewar capacity should not necessarily be viewed solely through the prism of conflict with Russia. It likely had more to do with smuggling issues around the Romanian border.



Two things would work here. A picture of the Stanislav still afloat after the date of the alleged distruction would disprove it. A photo of the wreckage would prove it.



It's been pretty high this entire conflict. To the point where official statements are mostly best left ignored. The Zmeiniy Island action is pretty major both the part confirmed by footage from the Ukrainian side and the part claimed by Russia. It's also part of an evolving pattern of struggle over the sea lanes around Odessa. This is the only reason I chose to provide the Russian claims in this case. The scale of Russian claims is such that any footage decent footage of the tiny island would pretty much automatically prove or disprove Russia's claims. The debris field from 3 destroyed Mi-8s alone would be huge.
This video just got released og an Mi-8 being taken down while unloading/loading soldiers. Ignore the horrible editing and music. The claim on the video is that it is a Russian Mi-8 being struck by Ukraine.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/ukvv9x
 

Twain

Active Member
Update.

Zmeiniy Island.

We have reports of major combat action at Zmeiniy Island. It appears Ukraine launched a strike using Bayraktars to take out the air defenses on Zmeiniy, Russian sources confirm losses of a Tor, a Strela-10, and a ZU-23-2 (also a small landing ship and a Coast Guard boat). This was followed by an Su-27 bombing strike on the island. After this things get murky. It appears Ukraine attempted a combine aerial and naval landing on the island, but this failed. Russian sources claimed downed Ukrainian jets (1 Su-24, 1 Su-27) and helos (3 Mi-8s), 2 or 3 (sources differ) Bayraktars, and there is footage of Ukrainian vessels heading away from the island, possibly due to an aborted landing. Russian sources also claim (unsubstantiated) a destroyed Ukrainian landing boat. The Russian story is that a Ukrainian boat and the helos actually made landfall and were then hit.


Looks like there may have been a helicopter shot down, a russian helicopter according to this

 

Exonian

New Member
This video just got released og an Mi-8 being taken down while unloading/loading soldiers. Ignore the horrible editing and music. The claim on the video is that it is a Russian Mi-8 being struck by Ukraine.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/ukvv9x
If Russia was preparing some kind of 9 May Victory parade on Snake Island this might have spoilt their party.

I wonder how much capability Ukraine has of striking other Victory parades? Whether there is a military justification for doing so, and whether the benefits of doing so might be negated by revenge attacks.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
President Zelenskyy restates his invitation to German Chancellor Scholz to visit Ukraine.
The invitation by Zelenskyy was explicitly to both Chancellor Scholz and President Steinmeier, more importantly - i.e. an attempt to calm the waves after the recent Ukrainian public insult to Germany.

Scholz has so far not acknowledged the invitation, and it is highly doubtable (as in: will not happen, see below) that he or Steinmeier would visit Kyev tomorrow to support some odd one-off Ukrainian "counter-celebrations" to Russia-only celebrations. There have been some statements in the direction that due to the Ukrainian kowtow "at some point" Foreign Minister Baerbock could visit Kyev - definitely not tomorrow either though.

Scholz will be holding a speech on TV this evening for May 8th celebrations, i.e. the actual VE-Day, after an online conference with G7 heads of states and heads of governments this afternoon. His calendar for tomorrow has holding a speech at a conference of the German Federation of Unions DGB in the early afternoon (Steinmeier will speak there today or its opening) and - after a press conference - formally receiving President Macron with military honours in the evening for his re-election inaugural visit. President Steinmeier will hold talks with the Belgian Prime Minister de Croo at the presidential seat Bellevue Palace tomorrow in the afternoon.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine is successful in targeting Russian sea and air reinforcements with their TB2. It’s released on their official channel too. The Ukrainian Navy says 2 Raptor-class patrol boats were hit on 7 May 2022, not one. The editing makes it difficult to discern.

The helicopter is Russian, an Mi-8AMTSh, and a Wagner chat later said the island has been abandoned by Russian forces. At least 8 Russians can be seen on the ground in this video. The helicopter 3 crew and can carry up to 24 passengers, so I think we can safely assume at least 11 Russians were landed before they were hit by the TB2 strike.

Mike and fiends have done the geo-location of the TB2 and air strikes by the 2 Su-27s. The Mi-8AMTSh helicopter that was shot down by the TB2 on Snake Island is not likely to be Ukrainian.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
For me the obvious question is where is the Russian counter UAS capability and why hasn't it been deployed with AD systems capable of detecting and engaging low to medium level targets with a low RCS and IR signature? It's not as if the Russians don't have such systems and are not expecting Ukrainian UAS activity in the area.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
It's not as if the Russians don't have such systems and are not expecting Ukrainian UAS activity in the area.
IMHO, classic case of collection plan failure — resulting in Russian failure to process, exploit, analyse and integrate intelligence on Ukrainian courses of action against Russian activities on Snake Island.

This is speculative but as I see it, the fact that they sent a Mi-8AMTSh (that was destroyed), shows that the Russians reacted but their reaction was based on a misunderstanding of ECA B. The Russians knew Snake Island was under attack but they had no asset providing over watch on the island at landing. That I see as a planning failure.

More broadly, in this war, the Russians are failing to win the recce, counter recce fight —which means they fail to understand Ukraine’s most likely and most dangerous courses of action.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
On the other hand the Russians (EDIT: Russian leaning groups) are claiming it was a Ukrainian chopper. Maybe some more experienced members here can take an educated guess? Does the blast fit in the profile of the ammunition normally found on Baryaktars?
It's Russian. It's a helo from the 487th Helo rgt.

 
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