The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[ngatimozart]

I have such a hard time grasping where this profound idiocy stems from. Lavrov and Putin have orchestrated nuanced and well executed foreign policy maneuvers. Where from comes this crude stupidity? Russia has few enough friends left... and there isn't even anything gained by this statement.

You do have to wonder.

There is an unconfirmed report that Putin has handed control over to Nikolai Patrustev who was head of the FSV and now is Secretary of The Security Council of Russia. This handover of control is only for 2 - 3 days whilst Putin undergoes surgery for cancer. One wonders if Patrustev has come up with this story and told Larov to spread it.

Russia-Ukraine war: Putin to undergo cancer surgery, transfer power to 'outright villain': report - NZ Herald

 

[koxinga]

I saw the TV segment where Lavrov said those words. It does not seem to be a prepared statement but something he said off the cuff in reply to a journalist that President Zelensky is Jewish.

But you would imagine that someone with his level of experience should know how to deal with this question. You can sidestep it, pretend you never heard it, you could say that Zelensky is not in full control and his government has Nazi sympathisers etc. But this reply is honestly one I never expected to hear from him.

 

[Vivendi]

Norway is planning the delivery of 20 M109 self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine.

Сообщают, что Норвегия передаст Украине.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Сообщают, что Норвегия передаст Украине 20 самоходных гаубиц M109A3GN калибра 155-мм/39 (фото; норвежская модернизация 1980-х гг. выпускавшихся в

vk.com

This has not been officially confirmed in Norway.

However it is true that recently 20 Norwegian M109s were pulled out of storage and tested. No particular reason has been given for performing the testing, just that the testing was performed to "see if the equipment still works." When asked specifically if it's related to a potential shipment to Ukraine they declined to give an answer. Nyhet, Ukraina | Tunge våpen hentet ut av beredskapslagrene i Ofoten – vil ikke svare på om de skal til Ukraina (nettavisen.no)

 

[koxinga]

Not sure what's going on with Russia at the moment. They seem incapable of walking back statements without feeling they "lost" and the need to double down.

This matter that has nearly zero bearing on the conflict.

Accusing Israel of supporting Nazis gotta be the craziest thing I've heard coming out of the Kremlin in a while.

Russia: Israel supports neo-Nazis in Ukraine after Lavrov-Hitler comment

The claim comes a day after Israeli leaders lambasted the Russian foreign minister for claiming Hitler had Jewish origins.

m.jpost.com

 

[Croc411]

It seems that nowadays the Kremlin's definition of a 'nazi' is: anyone who dares to oppose or even just criticize Russia.

Apparently, in Russian state TV they now resort to numerology to determine who is a nazi:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520184297059201025

 

[Vivendi]

Not sure what's going on with Russia at the moment. They seem incapable of walking back statements without feeling they "lost" and the need to double down.

This matter that has nearly zero bearing on the conflict.

Accusing Israel of supporting Nazis gotta be the craziest thing I've heard coming out of the Kremlin in a while.

Russia: Israel supports neo-Nazis in Ukraine after Lavrov-Hitler comment

The claim comes a day after Israeli leaders lambasted the Russian foreign minister for claiming Hitler had Jewish origins.

m.jpost.com

In the Russian "alternate reality" this makes sense -- those opposing Russia are often denoted Nazis, and those that criticize Russia publicly for pulling the Nazi card (as Israel did), would then naturally (from the Russian perspective) be seen as a Nazi as well. In Russia, this is "normal".

Russia is now starting to claim the Swedes are full of Nazis: Russia smears Swedish cultural giants as Nazis in propaganda posters (thelocal.se)

I strongly suspect it's linked to the Russian fear that Sweden is considering NATO membership.

The only positive thing about all this is that more and more people outside of Russia finally start to realize how Russia operates. This, together with Russian war crimes and other horrible atrocities in Ukraine, will hopefully open people's eyes to the realities of the current Russian regime.

"The West" must keep assisting Ukraine, and keep sanctioning Russia until Russia leaves Ukraine and stop attacking others. Russia has to change their ways, not "the West".

The main failure of "the West" was that Russia was not punished much harder earlier -- for committing war crimes in Grozny and Aleppo, and for invading Ukraine in 2014.

 

[swerve]

This has not been officially confirmed in Norway.

However it is true that recently 20 Norwegian M109s were pulled out of storage and tested. No particular reason has been given for performing the testing, just that the testing was performed to "see if the equipment still works." When asked specifically if it's related to a potential shipment to Ukraine they declined to give an answer. Nyhet, Ukraina | Tunge våpen hentet ut av beredskapslagrene i Ofoten – vil ikke svare på om de skal til Ukraina (nettavisen.no)

Some (I read 45) ex-Belgian army M109s are in the hands of a company called FTS, which has been trying to sell them. I read (here?) that Belgium has tried to buy them back to give them to Ukraine, but it's stalled over the price FTS is asking.

 

[Vivendi]

It seems Germany will send 7 Pzh 2000 to Ukraine: Arms deliveries: German government wants to deliver howitzers to Ukraine in 2000 - WELT

Finally.

 

[Señor Pomidor]

Inflation at the moment is not that bad and probably manageable. In the 1970s and1980s it was in double digits and the economies survived. There is bipartisan support for US military equipment support to Ukraine and that won't change because it's in the US national security interest and NATO's interest that Ukraine be fully supported until the Russian invasion is fully blunted and Russia removed from Ukrainian territory.

Hello,

This inflation may not be as manageable. This article by Zoltan Poszar, head of interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse explains the current financial situation, the lack of tools of central banks to deal with inflation and what are the possible turn outs.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502555449194946562

We have seen other financial experts such as Ray Dalio, expressing that we may end in period of stagflation. Actually, we could argue that we have already entered in stagflation since the US GDP shrank last quarter: U.S. Economy Shrank in First Quarter, but Underlying Measures Were Solid

Regarding the bipartisan support, I would not be so sure that the $33Bn bill is going to be passed in the parliament. There is a big part of the conservative half of the US that is not so gun-ho about the US involvement and support in the Ukrainian war. [Mod edit: Text deleted on unreliable source, given the speculative nature of your attempted discussion. You need to give clear disclaimers when what you post is so speculative, it might just be your imagination.

Any further attempts to derail this thread with an unsubstantiated discussion on American domestic politics, without regard for executive power (given that the Democrats control both the Senate & House), will lead either to a deletion of the post or a ban; or both.

Minimum levels of quality in posts is expected; shape up or get the boot.]

 

[StobieWan]

We may be straying into politics here - I'd just remark that polling consistently indicates the majority of US voters from either side of the aisle supports aid to Ukraine. I also would remind folk that Tucker Carlson is a relatively low fidelity source shall we say..

 

[John Fedup]

We may be straying into politics here - I'd just remark that polling consistently indicates the majority of US voters from either side of the aisle supports aid to Ukraine. I also would remind folk that Tucker Carlson is a relatively low fidelity source shall we say..

….Indeed, but so is his audience which is quite large and they typically show up to vote. [Mod edit: Welcome back from your ban. Apologies for the heavy handed guidance.

Please note that you need to give clear disclaimers when what you post is speculative. Any further attempts to derail this thread with an unsubstantiated discussion on American domestic politics, without regard for executive power (given that the Democrats control both the Senate & House), will lead either to a deletion of the post or a ban; or both. ]

 

[OPSSG]

Post 1 of 4: Putting a stop to posts so speculative, it is all just Russian imagination

We may be straying into politics here - I'd just remark that polling consistently indicates the majority of US voters from either side of the aisle supports aid to Ukraine. I also would remind folk that Tucker Carlson is a relatively low fidelity source shall we say..

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521452326304854017

1. For the needed context, on the point you make — the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 has moved smoothly through both houses of the US Congress; with the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act already passed in the Senate on 7 April 2022. It was introduced in the Senate by Senators John Cornyn (R-TX) and Ben Cardin (D-MD) with Senators Roger Wicker (R-MS) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) as original co-sponsors of the legislation.

2. Going forward, will ban anyone citing Tucker Carlson in this thread. It’s just speculative nonsense to cite Fox News (without sufficient disclaimers).

​

(a) The Kremlin prefers not to remember that the US sent 4.5 million tons of food to the Soviet Union in lend-lease aid. In both Russia and Belarus, the official history of the Great Patriotic War is rather silent about how Soviet soldiers ate cooked pork meat from American cans. The Russians are also not saying single word about WWII which started in 1939 by the German-Soviet attack on Poland.​

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(b) Time is also not on the side of the Russians, as everyday they spend fighting in Ukraine, is another day for Ukraine’s supporters in the West to deliver more weapons to the Ukrainian Army. On the speculative side, I suspect that:​

​

(i) Israel's defence industries want to show that they are responding to Russian war crimes, and this impetus, rather than Lavrov's comments per se, is driving aid — I don’t believe it. Israel’s stance on the war in Ukraine is no better than Indonesia (limited to humanitarian assistance);​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521541296988565505

​

(ii) in terms of 2 dimensions of time and space as critical success factors for Russian operational planning — the Russians seem not to be able to achieve their objectives (in terms of distance or ground gained or gaining the ground in a timely manner to allow movement of follow-on forces). Unless we see improved Russian integration and synchronization of mass in space and time, this effort by the Russians to advance may fail;​

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(iii) some of the reported problems are not just propaganda — Ukraine's presidential office adviser Arestovych reads out excerpts from intercepted calls between Russian soldiers indicating dire conditions for the latter; and​

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(iv) an impact of the war in Ukraine, due to high loss ratios, will be the inability of the Russian armed forces to retain personnel and attract new eager talent. In the long term, the general characteristics (qualities) of a typical Russian soldier will decrease; and the number of contract personnel could decline due to the current attrition rate.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521534418208403460

3. Worth taking a look at the posts by @HN_Schlottman, to get a general idea of force ratios. Lots of smart people putting up data. In other news,Ukraine forces have also pushed into Staryi Slativ; about 40km North East of Kharkiv. Russian forces withdrew before they could be cut off in an isolated position. As a result, a chain of villages have become Ukrainian-controlled territory without the need for a fight.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 2 of 4: Putting a stop to posts so speculative, it is all just Russian imagination

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521478125485543424

4. We have seen this sort of argument before in 1941; surrender Europe to Hitler. This line of American reasoning is not even new — it was a minority, then; and it’s still a minority today. At the ballot box, the Democrats won the Presidency, control the Senate and the House. Until this fact changes, this is the will of the American people.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521598425984389120

5. Evidence of the Russians falling for decoys.

6. In recent news, it was reported that Germany intends to pay for delivery by Hensoldt of surveillance and counter battery-radars (Spexer and Cobra) to Ukraine, also Night Owl long range surveillance cameras (previously also exported to unspecified country within Scandinavia).

• SPEXER 360 is a lightweight, low power, X-band radar, that provides an affordable surveillance capability.
• COBRA is a German JV radar system for the accurate and rapid location of enemy guns, rocket launchers and mortars. It may also be used for the adjustment or registration of the fire of own artillery.

Total value of these systems destined for Ukraine is about €50 million.

 

[Twain]

Here's an article detailing what military aid Ukraine asked for and what they have received (or has been promised) By and large they got most of what they asked for with a few important exceptions

Aircraft- jets and helicopters
They got parts to repair 20, maybe, I see some posts out there by Poles joking that 2 more mig 29's went missing last night, our base security really sucks
would be surprised that if in the next month or two, more russian jets aren't provided or NATO starts training Ukrainian pilots on western aircraft or possibly both

Mid to long range SAMS
This seems to be a problem for NATO, there just don't seem to be enough Russian mid to long range sam systems available to them and you have to deal with training time for western systems. Not sure what the answer is here, NASAMS maybe? as I don't see them getting Patriots anytime soon.

Long range tactical missiles
I'm not sure what will happen here, NATO is concerned about Ukraine hitting too many targets inside Russia but long term Ukraine is going to need to be able to hit airfields, rail lines, supply depots etc deeper inside Russia

What Heavy Weapons the West Has (and Hasn’t) Sent Ukraine - New Lines Institute

A Ukrainian government website lists the heavy military equipment Kyiv has asked for, what’s been promised, and what’s been delivered.

newlinesinstitute.org

 

[Big Slick]

Inflation at the moment is not that bad and probably manageable. In the 1970s and1980s it was in double digits and the economies survived. There is bipartisan support for US military equipment support to Ukraine and that won't change because it's in the US national security interest and NATO's interest that Ukraine be fully supported until the Russian invasion is fully blunted and Russia removed from Ukrainian territory.

If you think United States inflation is not as severe as the 70’s or 80’s just apply the Consumer Price Index from those eras to todays economy and I think you will find it’s every bit of double digits. Better yet just buy something, anything and the extent of this inflation is apparent. You are correct that there is bipartisan support by the elected officials. I would speculate that the American peoples support for this conflict is not as strong as advertised. I would also speculate that many people do not see Ukraines plight as a vital American interest. American leadership and the media are not always a reflection of the sentiment of the American people.

 

[denix56]

Found an interesting info about how much one of the main volunteer organisations provided since 24.02:

«Для росії немає жодної цінності в людському житті». Олег Карпенко з «Повернись живим» — про ситуацію на фронті, потреби армії та героїзм українців

Олег Карпенко — колишній військовий та співробітник найбільшого українського фонду компетентної допомоги армії — «Повернись живим». На тлі повномасштабної війни, що триває вже понад два місяці, ми поговорили з ним про ситуацію на фронті, реорганізацію фонду та зростання фінансування, «палки в...

dou.ua

The total amount of donations during the last 2 months to this organisation is around $100M. They bought everything they can buy - transport, equipment, drones, medicine, laptops, printers, optics. They say that while the soliders, who were fighting before 24.02 had everything they need, the army tripled since that time and that is why they have to buy all this stuff.

 

[surpreme]

The best guide for the Ukrainian conflict is the war in Syria. A numerically smaller Syrian army and its allies, supported by Russian air power and missile strikes managed to defeat a larger insurgent army backed by Turkey, and the gulf states. They did it slowly, in small bites. Very slowly at first, to the point most western analysts thought they were losing. I see the same process at work, with large force in Ukraine.

When the Russians intervened in Syria it was a month or two from collapse. Nobody really appreciates what they managed to do. They welded Hezbollah, the Iranians, the Iraqi militia, the Syrian army into an efficient war winning machine, and if the west were honest, they never gave them a chance. Now look at Russian forces they are moving slow, and the west think they are losing. Now you have same General who commanded in Syria in charge pay attention to their maneuvers I see repeat in the making. The only problem is the Ukraine are trained better and have good support from NATO. The effect of the economics of Russia will determined if it will work

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Footage of a Ukrainian Bayraktar strike taking out two Russian patrol boats.

Colonelcassad

Кадры поражения катеров ПС ФСБ с БПЛА "Байрактар" в районе острова Змеиный. Высказывается мнение, что это может быть один катер, сначала поврежденный, а затем добитый, когда он остановился.

t.me

Кадры наблюдения и поражения двух катеров.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Кадры наблюдения и поражения двух катеров типа "Раптор", ударным БПЛА Bayraktar TB2 ВСУ

vk.com

Russian Ka-52 lobbing unguided rockets, Nikolaev region, Pervomaysk.

Уголок Ситха

Работа Ка-52 в Первомайске. 03.05.2022 Денис Кулага.

t.me

Russian strikes, Odessa.

Военный Осведомитель

Очередные ракетные удары по украинским объектам на территории Одессы.

t.me

Oniks launches at Odessa.

Пуск высокоточных ракет «Оникс» берегового.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Пуск высокоточных ракет «Оникс» берегового ракетного комплекса "Бастион" по логистическому центру на военном аэродроме в Одессе, через который ос

vk.com

Fuel shortages are being reported in Nikolaev.

Рыбарь

Ситуация на заправках в Николаевской области. Хотя на Украину до сих пор идут составы с ГСМ по все еще не уничтоженным мостам, удары по нефтебазам привели к топливному голоду в регионах страны. Все горючее изымают ВСУ, а снабжение гражданских идет по остаточному принципу. #Николаев #Украина...

t.me

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk-Cherkasy.

Impacts in Dnepropetrovsk region, allegedly hitting rail infrastructure.

Рыбарь

Последствия ударов по Каменскому району Днепропетровской области. По словам главы администрации, ракеты повредили железнодорожную инфраструктуру. #Днепропетровск #Украина @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

Russian cruise missiles, Cherkasy region.

Telegram: Contact @greatrussia1

t.me

DNR 9th regiment in south-eastern Zaporozhye, riding a captured Humvee. They report using captured weapons.

9-й полк Народной милиции ДНР действует.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

9-й полк Народной милиции ДНР действует на Запорожском направлении, куда его перебросили после штурма Мариуполя.

vk.com

Russian National Guard, Melitopol'.

Военнослужащие ФСВНГ в Мелитополе. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Военнослужащие ФСВНГ в Мелитополе.

vk.com

Russian National Guard, Berdyansk.

Военнослужащие ФСВНГ в Бердянске. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Военнослужащие ФСВНГ в Бердянске.

vk.com

Russian National Guard during a press tour in Zaporozhskaya NPP, Energodar.

Российские военнослужащие охраняют иностранных.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Российские военнослужащие охраняют иностранных журналистов в ходе пресс-тура на территорию Запорожской АЭС в Энергодаре.

vk.com

Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strike in Kharkov, allegedly against a Ukrainian HQ.

ANNA-NEWS

Российские военные уничтожили штаб ВСУ в Харьковской области Обстрел велся высокоточными боеприпасом. Корректировал огонь расчет новейшего ударного беспилотника "Иноходец". @anna_news

t.me

Ukraine's 164th Radiotechnical brigade got hit by Russian forces. Some equipment destroyed, some apparently captured.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Армия России разгромила радиотехническую разведку ВСУ на Изюмском фронте На Харьковщине наши войска нанесли удар по 164-й бригаде радиотехразведки ПВО ВСУ. Захвачены уцелевшие машины. Большинство технических средств сильно морально устарели и вряд ли будут использоваться. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

На Харьковщине наши войска нанесли удар.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

На Харьковщине наши войска нанесли удар по 164-й бригаде радиотехразведки ПВО ВСУ.

vk.com

Russian National Guard digging in, Kharkov region. They appear to be setting up security positions for a nearby artillery element. If you will recall, Russian BTGs are light on infantry for duties like rear security for artillery formations. We also have an interesting story about the destruction of the BMP-2 and the evacuation of a wounded Russian service member using an APC. While the beginning is cut off, from context I believe the destroyed BMP-2 is Russian.

Как спецназ Росгвардии работает в связке.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Как спецназ Росгвардии работает в связке с артиллерией на фронте в Харьковской области.

vk.com

Izyum Salient.

Combat action in the Izyum Salient. Ukrainian forces appear to be fighting out of the building complex with the multiple garages. We can see a Ukrainian T-64 get knocked out, the crew bailing out. There's a BMP-2 (BRM-1?) parked with rear doors open, not clear what the status is. We can also see a destroyed cistern truck, possibly military.

Кадры ожесточенных боев на изюмском направлении,.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Кадры ожесточенных боев на изюмском направлении, снятые с БЛА

vk.com

TOS-1A firing, Izyum Salient.

Оперативные сводки

Видео работы ТОС-1А «Солнцепек» по укрепрайонам ВСУ в Изюмском районе. @opersvodki

t.me

Destroyed vehicles/equipment near Liman. We have a BTR-80 and ZU-23-2, allegedly Ukrainian, and an army truck most likely Ukrainian.

Битая и трофейная техника ВСУ на Лиманском.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Битая и трофейная техника ВСУ на Лиманском направлении.

vk.com

Damaged Ukrainian T-64B1M captured near Liman.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Украинский танк Т-64 захвачен в ходе наступления на Лиманском направлении В боекомплекте у танка довольно редкие зажигательные пули МДЗ-М. После попадания они самовоспламеняются и поджигают небронированную технику. Хорошее приобретение. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Украинский танк Т-64БМ "Булат" захвачен.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Украинский танк Т-64БМ "Булат" захвачен в ходе наступления на Лиманском направлении В боекомплекте у танка довольно редкие зажигательные

vk.com

Destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV, near Liman, crew KIA. Warning footage of corpses.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Русский спецназ уничтожил украинский Т-64 с экипажем Группировка "О" продолжает крушить врага на Лиманском направлении. В этот раз спецназ уничтожил танк Т-64, также ликвидировав его экипаж. Судя по татуировкам, некоторые боевики были нацистами. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Уничтоженный вместе с экипажем украинский.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Уничтоженный вместе с экипажем украинский Т-64БВ на Лиманском направлении.

vk.com

Ukrainian Valkiriya UAV went down near Liman, likely technical issues.

Повёрнутые на Z войне

Российским войскам в качестве трофея достался украинский БПЛА ASU-1 «Валькирия», который вёл разведку вблизи Лимана, ДНР.

t.me

The Slavyansk-Liman bridge is badly damaged. This further complicates the retreat path for Ukrainian forces around Liman. Some sources claim Ukraine blew the bridge, raising the ugly question of how they plan to evacuate the forces still on that side of the river.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Группировка ВСУ в Лимане отрезана от снабжения С уничтожением на оккупированной части ДНР моста Славянск - Красный Лиман атакуемая войсками России и ДНР группировка ВСУ не только оказывается отрезанной от пополнения живой силой, боеприпасами и техникой, у неё также значительно снижается...

t.me

ВСУ взорвали мост между Славянском и Лиманом. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

ВСУ взорвали мост между Славянском и Лиманом.

vk.com

Captured Ukrainian weapons, the Izyum Salient. Some allegedly came from a weapons cache.

Трофеи ВС РФ на изюмском направлении... | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Трофеи ВС РФ на изюмском направлении. В наличии: FGM-148 Javelin, Panzerfaust-3, NLAW, РПГ-75 и выстрел к ПТРК «Скиф». Бронежилеты Ospre

vk.com

В ходе разведывательно-поисковых мероприятий.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

В ходе разведывательно-поисковых мероприятий военнослужащие Росгвардии обнаружили схрон с вооружением диверсионно-разведывательной группы ВСУ в И

vk.com

A Russian Cossack volunteer formation has shown up in Ukraine riding BMP-2s. Note two of them are new BMP-2Ms with the Berezhok turret. Two are regular BMP-2s. This unit is probably in the Izyum Salient, based on the Tornado-U guntruck in the background. I think it's the same one from before. The appearance of 2 LNR regiments, 202nd and 204th, and now irregular volunteers, is not a good sign. It's a sign that Russia is short on manpower. Moreover the use of volunteers is in large part a clever trick by Russian authorities. It allows them to quote low casualties from the MoD, since volunteer fighters in irregular formations aren't officially enlisted.

Добровольческий казачий отряд «Дон» имени.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Добровольческий казачий отряд «Дон» имени архистратига Михаила во главе с атаманом Николаем Дьяконовым приступил к выполнению боевых задач в рамках

vk.com

A BTR-82AT flying a DNR flag in Kharkov region. I think it's highly likely that this is also in the Izyum Salient. I suspect this could be a rebel unit getting Russian equipment. BTR-82ATs are the most modern BTR Russia currently produces, and it's likely some came straight from the factory and were handed over to the rebels.

БТР-82АТ с флагом ДНР где-то в Харьковской.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

БТР-82АТ с флагом ДНР где-то в Харьковской области.

vk.com

 

[Feanor]

LDNR Front.

Interesting footage of a combat episode out of Popasnaya, where apparently 4 Russian mercenaries took 8 Ukrainian soldiers prisoner. While not implausible in principle, this incident, if true and not staged, is not at all indicative of the fighting in Popasnaya where well entrenched Ukrainian forces have inflicted serious casualties on rebel units and even allegedly Russian mercenaries. The full 22 minute video is in the second link.

Работа «ЧВК Вагнера» в Попасной.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Работа «ЧВК Вагнера» в Попасной 4 Vs 8 Итог пленение восьмерых солдат противника.

vk.com

Бои в Попасной.

Бои в Попасной На видео показана работа штурмовиков ЧВК Вагнер. В самой Попасной продвижение по-прежнему достаточно медленное. С начала штурма обе стороны понесли тут существенные потери. Противник всеми силами вцепился в Попасную, так как ее потеря откроет для наших войск возможности…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

DNR D-30s from Sparta btln firing near Avdeevka. Note both Sparta and Somali are relatively elite rebel units that were involved in the offensive at Mariupol'.

Гаубицы Д-30 Народной милиции ДНР работают.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Гаубицы Д-30 Народной милиции ДНР работают по позициям 25-й отдельной воздушно-десантной бригады ВСУ в районе Авдеевки.

vk.com

We have info on a new unit of the LNR, a "6th Cossack Regiment" operating apparently 2S5s, a rare weapon for this war. I suspect this entire formation may be a new unit formed from Russian volunteers and equipped by Russia.

Репортаж корреспондента Anna news из Попасной... | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Репортаж корреспондента Anna news из Попасной.

vk.com

Somali btln apparently captured a BMD-2 near Avdeevka.

WarGonzo

Авдеевский котёл. Батальон «Сомали» трофеит технику ВСУ Батальон «Сомали» Народной милиции ДНР с боем взял очередную единицу украинской бронетехники. На этот раз – боевую машину десанта. Правда, чтобы она снова отправилась на фронт, но уже на нашей стороне, - придётся хорошо поработать...

t.me

Отдельный штурмовой батальон «Сомали» НМ.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Отдельный штурмовой батальон «Сомали» НМ ДНР в качестве трофея взял боевую машину десанта БМД-2 25-й отдельной воздушно-десантной бригады ВСУ в рай

vk.com

Reports that the morgues at Rubezhnoe are overflowing due to the continuing fighting. Some of the morgues don't have electricity. The claim is that it's due to Ukrainian shelling, no confirmation whether civilians or Russian/rebel service members are the main occupants.

Южный Плацдарм

В Рубежном морги переполнены В связи с постоянными обстрелами со стороны ВФУ, в городе не успевают хоронить погибших. Морги переполнены, в некоторых нет электричества.

t.me

Allegedly captured 2S7 and 2S1s after repairs, in rebel hands. Why allegedly? No Z markings. This could be a composite Ukrainian column.

Стройной колонной на техническое обслуживание.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Стройной колонной на техническое обслуживание едут трофейные 2С1 «Гвоздика» и 2С7 «Пион», после прохождения обслуживания САУ встанут в строй и пр

vk.com

Russian investigators in Schastye, LNR area.

Сотрудники Следственного комитета России.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Сотрудники Следственного комитета России работают на территории населенного пункта Счастье в ЛНР. Следователи СК РФ опросили более тысячи жителей г

vk.com

Rebel reservist snipers, with Mosin rifles.

Донецкие резервисты-снайперы, снаряжëнные.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Донецкие резервисты-снайперы, снаряжëнные благодаря усилиям волонтёров. Каждый день работают на одном из "горячих" направлений.

vk.com

Mariupol'.

Azovstal' is getting hit again.

Военный Осведомитель

Крупное задымление со стороны "Азовстали" в Мариуполе.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Сегодняшние удары по "Азовстали". Работали авиация и артиллерия. Дроны выявляют движение нациков по промзоне, после чего начинаются удары. Противнику наносятся потери, остальных загоняют в подвалы.

t.me

На Азовстали продолжили нанесение ударов.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

На Азовстали продолжили нанесение ударов по украинским позициям.

vk.com

A rare T-64A was captured in Mariupol' near the Il'yich factory. It's a tank from a monument that apparently Ukrainian forces managed to get running again.

Милитарист

ВСУ предположительно вернули в строй редкий танк Т-64А, стоявший на постаменте у «Азовстали» и захваченный российскими силами

t.me

Украинские военные использовали памятник.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Украинские военные использовали памятник для прорыва с территории меткомбината имени Ильича в Мариуполе. На территории завода "Азовмаш" на

vk.com

Destroyed/captured Ukrainian vehicles around Azovstal'. We see a BTR-80, a BTR-3, and a technical.

Бронетехника полка «Азов», уничтоженная.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Бронетехника полка «Азов», уничтоженная у промзоны «Азовстали».

vk.com

Russian troops near Azovstal'. The first two groups, one riding an artillery recon vehicle, the other with the BTR-82A are Marines from the 810th Marine Bde. The BMD-based vehicle is used for their 2S9 SP mortars. The last group with the MT-LB are unknown, but they have shiny new uniforms and shiny new rifles (AK-12s).

Морские пехотинцы ВМФ РФ в районе металлургического.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Морские пехотинцы ВМФ РФ в районе металлургического комбината "Азовсталь" в Мариуполе.

vk.com

The West.

Explosions in L'vov. Note, the city is a major hub for military aid to Ukraine, and it's quite likely Russia is attempting to disrupt that aid.

Повёрнутые на Z войне

Момент взрыва во Львове. Сообщают о частичном отключении электричества

t.me

ZERGULIO

Еще видео прилета во Львове. Это не топливо, судя по предыдущему видео, там явно разрывы боеприпасов. Не тут ли сгружали полученное с 15 самолетов с базы США "Раммштайн"? @ssigny

t.me

Colonelcassad

Не замыленные видео ударов по Львову.

t.me

ZERGULIO

Прилет по Львову, но это не склад боеприпасов, тот был в плотной застройке, тут что-то другое.

t.me

Russian cruise missiles flying over L'vov region.

Военный Осведомитель

Пролет крылатой ракеты Х-101 над Львовом

t.me

Z Правда Шурави.

Пролет одной из ракет над Львовом.

t.me

Power substation burns in L'vov. Allegedly two were hit.

ZERGULIO

Фото пожара на подстанциях во Львове после ракетного удара.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Мэр Львова также опубликовал фото пожара с места удара. По словам украинских источников, половина города осталась без света и интернета.

t.me

Explosions in the near Carpathians, Ukraine.

Telegram: Contact @greatrussia1

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Удар нанесён по горному району Закарпатья, цель удара полыхает, поднимается столб дыма Власти обещают позже назвать масштабы разрушений t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Substation near the Beskid tunnel was hit. This power substation supports the railroad in this area.

338

UPD: Воловец, электроподстанция. Крупная ж/д станция сразу после Бескидского тоннеля перед перевалом на Прикарпатье. Хоть УЗ сообщает о прогнозируемых задержках поездов до 2 часов, в силу сложности рельефа (серьезные перепады высот) ждать придется еще дольше. И о движении грузовых поездов до...

t.me

Ukraine has increased security around the Beskid tunnel, a key railway to the EU.

ВСУ усилили охрану Бескидского тоннеля ПВО.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

ВСУ усилили охрану Бескидского тоннеля ПВО и военными, чтобы сохранить транзит военной техники из Европы. Тоннель, расположенный на границ

vk.com

There are unconfirmed reports of trains being delayed in L'vov region. Note, trains are the main form of transport for many people and much cargo. This could not only disrupt the flow of military goods, but also prevent refugees from evacuating.

Рыбарь

Сегодня ВС РФ наконец-то нанесли хороший удар по тяговым подстанциям во Львове. Выведены из строя как подстанции переменного, так и постоянного тока. Мы неоднократно публиковали списки координат для точечного огневого поражения, который позволит предотвратить жертвы среди мирного населения...

t.me

Russia.

Air defenses firing, Belgorod, Russia.

Украина.ру

В Белгородской области снова работает ПВО. Видео — @sashakots

t.me

The recent bridge destroyed in Kursk region was apparently taken out by explosives on two of the bridge supports. It appears Ukraine is using a mix of infiltrator teams and UAVs.

По данным канала Shot, причиной обрушения.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

По данным канала Shot, причиной обрушения железнодорожного моста в Курской области послужил взрыв двух несущих опор. Под каждую из них было заложен

vk.com

Misc.

Russian strikes, location and context unclear.

Андрей Vышинский

"Иноходец" наблюдает за поражением очередного объекта укроВермахта.

t.me

Low altitude Su-24M strike, Russian. It's allegedly bombing a Ukrainian fortified position. Location unclear.

Кадры объективного контроля нанесения.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Кадры объективного контроля нанесения авиационного удара экипажем самолета Су-24М по замаскированным укрепленным позициям ВСУ Бомбометан

vk.com

Russian National Guard Tigr-M after a grenade launcher impact. No word of if RPG or an AGS.

Военный Осведомитель

Осведомлён - значит вооружён. По вопросам сотрудничества/рекламы - @dontig

t.me

Бронеавтомобиль СБМ ВПК-233136 «Тигр» ФСВНГ.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Бронеавтомобиль СБМ ВПК-233136 «Тигр» ФСВНГ после встречи с гранатометом противника

vk.com

Ukrainian Varta armored car captured near Kreschennaya, a city I can't find on the map....

Трофейная "Варта", в г. Крещенная | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Трофейная "Варта", в г. Крещенная

vk.com

Captured Ukrainian weapons and munitions, note the M2 .50 cal and the SPG-9 ammo.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Любопытный трофей группировки "О" на Донбассе: американский крупнокалиберный пулемёт M2 Пулемёт M2 принят в эксплуатацию армией США ещё в 1933 г., прошёл 20 войн, но до сих пор используется. Также на кадрах выстрелы от СПГ-9 Копьё - разработанный в конце 50-х в СССР станковый...

t.me

Russian security forces raiding homes in Ukraine, location and context unclear. Based on previous cases this is probably Kherson or southern Zaporozhye region.

Канал специального назначения

Военнослужащие подразделения СпН Росгвардии во время адресных мероприятий, на территории находящейся под контролем России.

t.me

Alleged US fighters Ukraine, under fire. Location and context unclear.

Повёрнутые на Z войне

Амерские наемники. Пока ещё живые и даже весёлые.

t.me

Russian EW helos with the Rychag system, Ukraine.

Вертолётный комплекс радиоэлектронного подавления.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Вертолётный комплекс радиоэлектронного подавления Ми-8МТПР-1 с установленной на борту станцией активных помех «Рычаг-АВ» в зоне проведения СВО.

vk.com

Ukrainian Mi-8s operating at a low altitude, location and context unclear.

Апрельские полёты на малых высотах украинских.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Апрельские полёты на малых высотах украинских Ми-8

vk.com

Russian Niobiy radar, operating in Ukraine.

Кадры работы радиолокационной станции Ниобий,.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Кадры работы радиолокационной станции Ниобий, помогающей обнаружить вражескую авиацию

vk.com

Russian National Guard, Ukraine. Location and context unclear.

Бойцы ФСВНГ в салоне бронеавтомобиля СБМ.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

Бойцы ФСВНГ в салоне бронеавтомобиля СБМ ВПК-233136 «Тигр»

vk.com

NATO/EU.

The US has already delivered 70+ M777 howitzers to Ukraine.

Военный Осведомитель

Пентагон - уже более 70 гаубиц М777 доставлено на Украину, также завершается процесс обучения расчетов.

t.me

Cargo trains with aid from Poland arriving in Ukraine.

На Украину продолжают прибывать поезда.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

На Украину продолжают прибывать поезда из Польши Владелец польской сети постаматов InPost Рафал Бжоска рассказал о прибытии на Украину 4

vk.com

 

[Feanor]

The best guide for the Ukrainian conflict is the war in Syria. A numerically smaller Syrian army and its allies, supported by Russian air power and missile strikes managed to defeat a larger insurgent army backed by Turkey, and the gulf states. They did it slowly, in small bites. Very slowly at first, to the point most western analysts thought they were losing. I see the same process at work, with large force in Ukraine.

When the Russians intervened in Syria it was a month or two from collapse. Nobody really appreciates what they managed to do. They welded Hezbollah, the Iranians, the Iraqi militia, the Syrian army into an efficient war winning machine, and if the west were honest, they never gave them a chance. Now look at Russian forces they are moving slow, and the west think they are losing. Now you have same General who commanded in Syria in charge pay attention to their maneuvers I see repeat in the making. The only problem is the Ukraine are trained better and have good support from NATO. The effect of the economics of Russia will determined if it will work

This isn't even close to accurate as a comparison. Ukraine is a state military not a collection of loose militias. Russia doesn't have even a fraction of the international legitimacy here that it did in Syria. The west and co. were divided and had competing priorities and conflicting objectives (Kurds vs Turks vs SAA vs others). Here the west is relatively united, has a functioning state apparatus, with it's mobilization systems and infrastructure in place, to fight.

In Syria, Russia could take all the time they wanted. Even a total defeat wouldn't be catastrophic, or even all that costly. Here even a slow victory is terrible for Russia. There are honestly so many differences, I can't even list them all. The only real unifying factor is that Russia and the West are on opposite sides in each conflict (even this is only partially true, remember in Syria almost everyone was united against ISIS).