The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I have such a hard time grasping where this profound idiocy stems from. Lavrov and Putin have orchestrated nuanced and well executed foreign policy maneuvers. Where from comes this crude stupidity? Russia has few enough friends left... and there isn't even anything gained by this statement.
You do have to wonder.

There is an unconfirmed report that Putin has handed control over to Nikolai Patrustev who was head of the FSV and now is Secretary of The Security Council of Russia. This handover of control is only for 2 - 3 days whilst Putin undergoes surgery for cancer. One wonders if Patrustev has come up with this story and told Larov to spread it.

Russia-Ukraine war: Putin to undergo cancer surgery, transfer power to 'outright villain': report - NZ Herald
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
I saw the TV segment where Lavrov said those words. It does not seem to be a prepared statement but something he said off the cuff in reply to a journalist that President Zelensky is Jewish.

But you would imagine that someone with his level of experience should know how to deal with this question. You can sidestep it, pretend you never heard it, you could say that Zelensky is not in full control and his government has Nazi sympathisers etc. But this reply is honestly one I never expected to hear from him.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Norway is planning the delivery of 20 M109 self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine.

This has not been officially confirmed in Norway.

However it is true that recently 20 Norwegian M109s were pulled out of storage and tested. No particular reason has been given for performing the testing, just that the testing was performed to "see if the equipment still works." When asked specifically if it's related to a potential shipment to Ukraine they declined to give an answer. Nyhet, Ukraina | Tunge våpen hentet ut av beredskapslagrene i Ofoten – vil ikke svare på om de skal til Ukraina (nettavisen.no)
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Not sure what's going on with Russia at the moment. They seem incapable of walking back statements without feeling they "lost" and the need to double down.

This matter that has nearly zero bearing on the conflict.

Accusing Israel of supporting Nazis gotta be the craziest thing I've heard coming out of the Kremlin in a while.

 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Not sure what's going on with Russia at the moment. They seem incapable of walking back statements without feeling they "lost" and the need to double down.

This matter that has nearly zero bearing on the conflict.

Accusing Israel of supporting Nazis gotta be the craziest thing I've heard coming out of the Kremlin in a while.

In the Russian "alternate reality" this makes sense -- those opposing Russia are often denoted Nazis, and those that criticize Russia publicly for pulling the Nazi card (as Israel did), would then naturally (from the Russian perspective) be seen as a Nazi as well. In Russia, this is "normal".

Russia is now starting to claim the Swedes are full of Nazis: Russia smears Swedish cultural giants as Nazis in propaganda posters (thelocal.se)

I strongly suspect it's linked to the Russian fear that Sweden is considering NATO membership.

The only positive thing about all this is that more and more people outside of Russia finally start to realize how Russia operates. This, together with Russian war crimes and other horrible atrocities in Ukraine, will hopefully open people's eyes to the realities of the current Russian regime.

"The West" must keep assisting Ukraine, and keep sanctioning Russia until Russia leaves Ukraine and stop attacking others. Russia has to change their ways, not "the West".

The main failure of "the West" was that Russia was not punished much harder earlier -- for committing war crimes in Grozny and Aleppo, and for invading Ukraine in 2014.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
This has not been officially confirmed in Norway.

However it is true that recently 20 Norwegian M109s were pulled out of storage and tested. No particular reason has been given for performing the testing, just that the testing was performed to "see if the equipment still works." When asked specifically if it's related to a potential shipment to Ukraine they declined to give an answer. Nyhet, Ukraina | Tunge våpen hentet ut av beredskapslagrene i Ofoten – vil ikke svare på om de skal til Ukraina (nettavisen.no)
Some (I read 45) ex-Belgian army M109s are in the hands of a company called FTS, which has been trying to sell them. I read (here?) that Belgium has tried to buy them back to give them to Ukraine, but it's stalled over the price FTS is asking.
 

Señor Pomidor

New Member
Unreliable off topic speculation
Inflation at the moment is not that bad and probably manageable. In the 1970s and1980s it was in double digits and the economies survived. There is bipartisan support for US military equipment support to Ukraine and that won't change because it's in the US national security interest and NATO's interest that Ukraine be fully supported until the Russian invasion is fully blunted and Russia removed from Ukrainian territory.
Hello,

This inflation may not be as manageable. This article by Zoltan Poszar, head of interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse explains the current financial situation, the lack of tools of central banks to deal with inflation and what are the possible turn outs.


We have seen other financial experts such as Ray Dalio, expressing that we may end in period of stagflation. Actually, we could argue that we have already entered in stagflation since the US GDP shrank last quarter: U.S. Economy Shrank in First Quarter, but Underlying Measures Were Solid

Regarding the bipartisan support, I would not be so sure that the $33Bn bill is going to be passed in the parliament. There is a big part of the conservative half of the US that is not so gun-ho about the US involvement and support in the Ukrainian war. [Mod edit: Text deleted on unreliable source, given the speculative nature of your attempted discussion. You need to give clear disclaimers when what you post is so speculative, it might just be your imagination.

Any further attempts to derail this thread with an unsubstantiated discussion on American domestic politics, without regard for executive power (given that the Democrats control both the Senate & House), will lead either to a deletion of the post or a ban; or both.

Minimum levels of quality in posts is expected; shape up or get the boot.]
 
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StobieWan

Super Moderator
Staff member
We may be straying into politics here - I'd just remark that polling consistently indicates the majority of US voters from either side of the aisle supports aid to Ukraine. I also would remind folk that Tucker Carlson is a relatively low fidelity source shall we say..
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
We may be straying into politics here - I'd just remark that polling consistently indicates the majority of US voters from either side of the aisle supports aid to Ukraine. I also would remind folk that Tucker Carlson is a relatively low fidelity source shall we say..
….Indeed, but so is his audience which is quite large and they typically show up to vote. [Mod edit: Welcome back from your ban. Apologies for the heavy handed guidance.

Please note that you need to give clear disclaimers when what you post is speculative. Any further attempts to derail this thread with an unsubstantiated discussion on American domestic politics, without regard for executive power (given that the Democrats control both the Senate & House), will lead either to a deletion of the post or a ban; or both.
]
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 1 of 4: Putting a stop to posts so speculative, it is all just Russian imagination

We may be straying into politics here - I'd just remark that polling consistently indicates the majority of US voters from either side of the aisle supports aid to Ukraine. I also would remind folk that Tucker Carlson is a relatively low fidelity source shall we say..
1. For the needed context, on the point you make — the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 has moved smoothly through both houses of the US Congress; with the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act already passed in the Senate on 7 April 2022. It was introduced in the Senate by Senators John Cornyn (R-TX) and Ben Cardin (D-MD) with Senators Roger Wicker (R-MS) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) as original co-sponsors of the legislation.

2. Going forward, will ban anyone citing Tucker Carlson in this thread. It’s just speculative nonsense to cite Fox News (without sufficient disclaimers).
(a) The Kremlin prefers not to remember that the US sent 4.5 million tons of food to the Soviet Union in lend-lease aid. In both Russia and Belarus, the official history of the Great Patriotic War is rather silent about how Soviet soldiers ate cooked pork meat from American cans. The Russians are also not saying single word about WWII which started in 1939 by the German-Soviet attack on Poland.​
0BE5F047-48D0-4440-8C0D-1E27C053FDF9.jpeg
(b) Time is also not on the side of the Russians, as everyday they spend fighting in Ukraine, is another day for Ukraine’s supporters in the West to deliver more weapons to the Ukrainian Army. On the speculative side, I suspect that:​
(i) Israel's defence industries want to show that they are responding to Russian war crimes, and this impetus, rather than Lavrov's comments per se, is driving aid — I don’t believe it. Israel’s stance on the war in Ukraine is no better than Indonesia (limited to humanitarian assistance);​
(ii) in terms of 2 dimensions of time and space as critical success factors for Russian operational planning — the Russians seem not to be able to achieve their objectives (in terms of distance or ground gained or gaining the ground in a timely manner to allow movement of follow-on forces). Unless we see improved Russian integration and synchronization of mass in space and time, this effort by the Russians to advance may fail;​
FCE29BA6-F4D7-4A3C-A73F-CE3DD0084113.jpeg
(iii) some of the reported problems are not just propaganda — Ukraine's presidential office adviser Arestovych reads out excerpts from intercepted calls between Russian soldiers indicating dire conditions for the latter; and​
D5F478F0-FA01-481D-9EBF-192F9B5344F3.jpeg
(iv) an impact of the war in Ukraine, due to high loss ratios, will be the inability of the Russian armed forces to retain personnel and attract new eager talent. In the long term, the general characteristics (qualities) of a typical Russian soldier will decrease; and the number of contract personnel could decline due to the current attrition rate.​

3. Worth taking a look at the posts by @HN_Schlottman, to get a general idea of force ratios. Lots of smart people putting up data. In other news,Ukraine forces have also pushed into Staryi Slativ; about 40km North East of Kharkiv. Russian forces withdrew before they could be cut off in an isolated position. As a result, a chain of villages have become Ukrainian-controlled territory without the need for a fight.
D365C4C6-9A31-44CA-A1E1-E966192E2F54.jpeg
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 2 of 4: Putting a stop to posts so speculative, it is all just Russian imagination

4. We have seen this sort of argument before in 1941; surrender Europe to Hitler. This line of American reasoning is not even new — it was a minority, then; and it’s still a minority today. At the ballot box, the Democrats won the Presidency, control the Senate and the House. Until this fact changes, this is the will of the American people.

5. Evidence of the Russians falling for decoys.

6. In recent news, it was reported that Germany intends to pay for delivery by Hensoldt of surveillance and counter battery-radars (Spexer and Cobra) to Ukraine, also Night Owl long range surveillance cameras (previously also exported to unspecified country within Scandinavia).
  • SPEXER 360 is a lightweight, low power, X-band radar, that provides an affordable surveillance capability.
  • COBRA is a German JV radar system for the accurate and rapid location of enemy guns, rocket launchers and mortars. It may also be used for the adjustment or registration of the fire of own artillery.
Total value of these systems destined for Ukraine is about €50 million.
 
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Twain

Active Member
Here's an article detailing what military aid Ukraine asked for and what they have received (or has been promised) By and large they got most of what they asked for with a few important exceptions

Aircraft- jets and helicopters
They got parts to repair 20, maybe, I see some posts out there by Poles joking that 2 more mig 29's went missing last night, our base security really sucks
would be surprised that if in the next month or two, more russian jets aren't provided or NATO starts training Ukrainian pilots on western aircraft or possibly both

Mid to long range SAMS
This seems to be a problem for NATO, there just don't seem to be enough Russian mid to long range sam systems available to them and you have to deal with training time for western systems. Not sure what the answer is here, NASAMS maybe? as I don't see them getting Patriots anytime soon.

Long range tactical missiles
I'm not sure what will happen here, NATO is concerned about Ukraine hitting too many targets inside Russia but long term Ukraine is going to need to be able to hit airfields, rail lines, supply depots etc deeper inside Russia

 

Big Slick

New Member
Inflation at the moment is not that bad and probably manageable. In the 1970s and1980s it was in double digits and the economies survived. There is bipartisan support for US military equipment support to Ukraine and that won't change because it's in the US national security interest and NATO's interest that Ukraine be fully supported until the Russian invasion is fully blunted and Russia removed from Ukrainian territory.
If you think United States inflation is not as severe as the 70’s or 80’s just apply the Consumer Price Index from those eras to todays economy and I think you will find it’s every bit of double digits. Better yet just buy something, anything and the extent of this inflation is apparent. You are correct that there is bipartisan support by the elected officials. I would speculate that the American peoples support for this conflict is not as strong as advertised. I would also speculate that many people do not see Ukraines plight as a vital American interest. American leadership and the media are not always a reflection of the sentiment of the American people.
 

denix56

Active Member
Found an interesting info about how much one of the main volunteer organisations provided since 24.02:

The total amount of donations during the last 2 months to this organisation is around $100M. They bought everything they can buy - transport, equipment, drones, medicine, laptops, printers, optics. They say that while the soliders, who were fighting before 24.02 had everything they need, the army tripled since that time and that is why they have to buy all this stuff.
 

surpreme

Member
The best guide for the Ukrainian conflict is the war in Syria. A numerically smaller Syrian army and its allies, supported by Russian air power and missile strikes managed to defeat a larger insurgent army backed by Turkey, and the gulf states. They did it slowly, in small bites. Very slowly at first, to the point most western analysts thought they were losing. I see the same process at work, with large force in Ukraine.

When the Russians intervened in Syria it was a month or two from collapse. Nobody really appreciates what they managed to do. They welded Hezbollah, the Iranians, the Iraqi militia, the Syrian army into an efficient war winning machine, and if the west were honest, they never gave them a chance. Now look at Russian forces they are moving slow, and the west think they are losing. Now you have same General who commanded in Syria in charge pay attention to their maneuvers I see repeat in the making. The only problem is the Ukraine are trained better and have good support from NATO. The effect of the economics of Russia will determined if it will work
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Footage of a Ukrainian Bayraktar strike taking out two Russian patrol boats.


Russian Ka-52 lobbing unguided rockets, Nikolaev region, Pervomaysk.


Russian strikes, Odessa.


Oniks launches at Odessa.


Fuel shortages are being reported in Nikolaev.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk-Cherkasy.

Impacts in Dnepropetrovsk region, allegedly hitting rail infrastructure.


Russian cruise missiles, Cherkasy region.


DNR 9th regiment in south-eastern Zaporozhye, riding a captured Humvee. They report using captured weapons.


Russian National Guard, Melitopol'.


Russian National Guard, Berdyansk.


Russian National Guard during a press tour in Zaporozhskaya NPP, Energodar.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strike in Kharkov, allegedly against a Ukrainian HQ.


Ukraine's 164th Radiotechnical brigade got hit by Russian forces. Some equipment destroyed, some apparently captured.


Russian National Guard digging in, Kharkov region. They appear to be setting up security positions for a nearby artillery element. If you will recall, Russian BTGs are light on infantry for duties like rear security for artillery formations. We also have an interesting story about the destruction of the BMP-2 and the evacuation of a wounded Russian service member using an APC. While the beginning is cut off, from context I believe the destroyed BMP-2 is Russian.


Izyum Salient.

Combat action in the Izyum Salient. Ukrainian forces appear to be fighting out of the building complex with the multiple garages. We can see a Ukrainian T-64 get knocked out, the crew bailing out. There's a BMP-2 (BRM-1?) parked with rear doors open, not clear what the status is. We can also see a destroyed cistern truck, possibly military.


TOS-1A firing, Izyum Salient.


Destroyed vehicles/equipment near Liman. We have a BTR-80 and ZU-23-2, allegedly Ukrainian, and an army truck most likely Ukrainian.


Damaged Ukrainian T-64B1M captured near Liman.


Destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV, near Liman, crew KIA. Warning footage of corpses.


Ukrainian Valkiriya UAV went down near Liman, likely technical issues.


The Slavyansk-Liman bridge is badly damaged. This further complicates the retreat path for Ukrainian forces around Liman. Some sources claim Ukraine blew the bridge, raising the ugly question of how they plan to evacuate the forces still on that side of the river.


Captured Ukrainian weapons, the Izyum Salient. Some allegedly came from a weapons cache.


A Russian Cossack volunteer formation has shown up in Ukraine riding BMP-2s. Note two of them are new BMP-2Ms with the Berezhok turret. Two are regular BMP-2s. This unit is probably in the Izyum Salient, based on the Tornado-U guntruck in the background. I think it's the same one from before. The appearance of 2 LNR regiments, 202nd and 204th, and now irregular volunteers, is not a good sign. It's a sign that Russia is short on manpower. Moreover the use of volunteers is in large part a clever trick by Russian authorities. It allows them to quote low casualties from the MoD, since volunteer fighters in irregular formations aren't officially enlisted.


A BTR-82AT flying a DNR flag in Kharkov region. I think it's highly likely that this is also in the Izyum Salient. I suspect this could be a rebel unit getting Russian equipment. BTR-82ATs are the most modern BTR Russia currently produces, and it's likely some came straight from the factory and were handed over to the rebels.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
LDNR Front.

Interesting footage of a combat episode out of Popasnaya, where apparently 4 Russian mercenaries took 8 Ukrainian soldiers prisoner. While not implausible in principle, this incident, if true and not staged, is not at all indicative of the fighting in Popasnaya where well entrenched Ukrainian forces have inflicted serious casualties on rebel units and even allegedly Russian mercenaries. The full 22 minute video is in the second link.


DNR D-30s from Sparta btln firing near Avdeevka. Note both Sparta and Somali are relatively elite rebel units that were involved in the offensive at Mariupol'.


We have info on a new unit of the LNR, a "6th Cossack Regiment" operating apparently 2S5s, a rare weapon for this war. I suspect this entire formation may be a new unit formed from Russian volunteers and equipped by Russia.


Somali btln apparently captured a BMD-2 near Avdeevka.


Reports that the morgues at Rubezhnoe are overflowing due to the continuing fighting. Some of the morgues don't have electricity. The claim is that it's due to Ukrainian shelling, no confirmation whether civilians or Russian/rebel service members are the main occupants.


Allegedly captured 2S7 and 2S1s after repairs, in rebel hands. Why allegedly? No Z markings. This could be a composite Ukrainian column.


Russian investigators in Schastye, LNR area.


Rebel reservist snipers, with Mosin rifles.


Mariupol'.

Azovstal' is getting hit again.


A rare T-64A was captured in Mariupol' near the Il'yich factory. It's a tank from a monument that apparently Ukrainian forces managed to get running again.


Destroyed/captured Ukrainian vehicles around Azovstal'. We see a BTR-80, a BTR-3, and a technical.


Russian troops near Azovstal'. The first two groups, one riding an artillery recon vehicle, the other with the BTR-82A are Marines from the 810th Marine Bde. The BMD-based vehicle is used for their 2S9 SP mortars. The last group with the MT-LB are unknown, but they have shiny new uniforms and shiny new rifles (AK-12s).


The West.

Explosions in L'vov. Note, the city is a major hub for military aid to Ukraine, and it's quite likely Russia is attempting to disrupt that aid.


Russian cruise missiles flying over L'vov region.


Power substation burns in L'vov. Allegedly two were hit.


Explosions in the near Carpathians, Ukraine.


Substation near the Beskid tunnel was hit. This power substation supports the railroad in this area.


Ukraine has increased security around the Beskid tunnel, a key railway to the EU.


There are unconfirmed reports of trains being delayed in L'vov region. Note, trains are the main form of transport for many people and much cargo. This could not only disrupt the flow of military goods, but also prevent refugees from evacuating.


Russia.

Air defenses firing, Belgorod, Russia.


The recent bridge destroyed in Kursk region was apparently taken out by explosives on two of the bridge supports. It appears Ukraine is using a mix of infiltrator teams and UAVs.


Misc.


Russian strikes, location and context unclear.


Low altitude Su-24M strike, Russian. It's allegedly bombing a Ukrainian fortified position. Location unclear.


Russian National Guard Tigr-M after a grenade launcher impact. No word of if RPG or an AGS.


Ukrainian Varta armored car captured near Kreschennaya, a city I can't find on the map....


Captured Ukrainian weapons and munitions, note the M2 .50 cal and the SPG-9 ammo.


Russian security forces raiding homes in Ukraine, location and context unclear. Based on previous cases this is probably Kherson or southern Zaporozhye region.


Alleged US fighters Ukraine, under fire. Location and context unclear.


Russian EW helos with the Rychag system, Ukraine.


Ukrainian Mi-8s operating at a low altitude, location and context unclear.


Russian Niobiy radar, operating in Ukraine.


Russian National Guard, Ukraine. Location and context unclear.


NATO/EU.

The US has already delivered 70+ M777 howitzers to Ukraine.


Cargo trains with aid from Poland arriving in Ukraine.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The best guide for the Ukrainian conflict is the war in Syria. A numerically smaller Syrian army and its allies, supported by Russian air power and missile strikes managed to defeat a larger insurgent army backed by Turkey, and the gulf states. They did it slowly, in small bites. Very slowly at first, to the point most western analysts thought they were losing. I see the same process at work, with large force in Ukraine.

When the Russians intervened in Syria it was a month or two from collapse. Nobody really appreciates what they managed to do. They welded Hezbollah, the Iranians, the Iraqi militia, the Syrian army into an efficient war winning machine, and if the west were honest, they never gave them a chance. Now look at Russian forces they are moving slow, and the west think they are losing. Now you have same General who commanded in Syria in charge pay attention to their maneuvers I see repeat in the making. The only problem is the Ukraine are trained better and have good support from NATO. The effect of the economics of Russia will determined if it will work
This isn't even close to accurate as a comparison. Ukraine is a state military not a collection of loose militias. Russia doesn't have even a fraction of the international legitimacy here that it did in Syria. The west and co. were divided and had competing priorities and conflicting objectives (Kurds vs Turks vs SAA vs others). Here the west is relatively united, has a functioning state apparatus, with it's mobilization systems and infrastructure in place, to fight.

In Syria, Russia could take all the time they wanted. Even a total defeat wouldn't be catastrophic, or even all that costly. Here even a slow victory is terrible for Russia. There are honestly so many differences, I can't even list them all. The only real unifying factor is that Russia and the West are on opposite sides in each conflict (even this is only partially true, remember in Syria almost everyone was united against ISIS).
 
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