The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[OPSSG]

Chechen fighters digging in at Rubezhnoe. Those positions look a tad too pretty and not deep enough for my liking. I'd focus more effort on digging deep and less effort on obviously fake branches stuck into the top.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Actors, not soldiers: Agreed, it needs to be just a bit deeper but these Chechen boys look too clean to have been digging. Looks like these trenches were dug by an excavator and not by hand.

Not using terrain to your advantage: The Chechens don’t seem to use the lay of land to set up their fighting positions — which I see as a command failure — the design of the defence needs to be planned out during a commander’s recce.

Mistakes galore: I don’t see pre-dug machine gun positions or an obstacle plan to channel the enemy. Ideally, with any overhead cover, you need support beams and at least 2 to 4 layers of sandbags (to prevent penetration by air burst shell splinters. The Chechen boys will wish they dug as deep as I once did, when they are bracketed by Ukrainian artillery.

Point of comparison: In my active NS days, our command trench was deep enough that it had small stairs; and over 1,000 sandbags for the overhead cover. All approaches had wire obstacles, with sentries, covering security forces and so on.

300 more Chechen volunteers heading to Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Learn by dying: They need to send more, as these war tourists are getting killed or injured in day 49 of Putin’s 3 day war.

More mistakes: Effective suppression is required as long as an RPG gunner is in a hot position.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513629682339618834

 

[Twain]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514185460305825794

Now Sweden will apply for NATO membership as Finland opens debate

The assault on Ukraine sparked a dramatic U-turn in public and political opinion in Finland and neighbouring Sweden regarding their long-held policies of military non-alignment.

www.dailymail.co.uk

This is happening faster than I thought it would. Now what does Putin do? He started a war to keep NATO away from Russian borders (among may other supposed reasons) Now he is going to have 2 additional members of NATO on his border. The list of things that Putin miscalculated is getting longer and longer, Hard to call his decision anything other than a complete disaster.

 

[Vivendi]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514185460305825794

Now Sweden will apply for NATO membership as Finland opens debate

The assault on Ukraine sparked a dramatic U-turn in public and political opinion in Finland and neighbouring Sweden regarding their long-held policies of military non-alignment.

www.dailymail.co.uk

This is happening faster than I thought it would. Now what does Putin do? He started a war to keep NATO away from Russian borders (among may other supposed reasons) Now he is going to have 2 additional members of NATO on his border. The list of things that Putin miscalculated is getting longer and longer, Hard to call his decision anything other than a complete disaster.

Just to clarify -- Sweden and Finland have not yet made a formal decision to join. One Swedish newspaper claimed today (based on anonymous sources) that the Swedish PM has decided that Sweden should join NATO, but she refuted this during the press conference today, instead saying that Sweden will have a "serious process" to consider pros and cons before making a decision.

Nevertheless, as I mentioned in a previous post, it's highly likely that Finland will join and it will happen quite fast. And if Finland joins, it very likely that Sweden will decide that they cannot remain the only country in Northern Europe outside of NATO, and therefore will decide that they also have to join.

Finnish decision is expected "within weeks" -- it is not clear when the Swedish decision will be made, but probably also quite soon. Sweden is preparing an analysis report that will be used as a foundation to make a decision, and this report will be ready "not later than 31st of May", however the Swedish PM made it clear that it may be ready sooner.

Marin: Finskt beslut om Nato inom några veckor

Finlands beslut om Nato väntas inom kort, enligt statsminister Sanna Marin. – Jag tror att det kommer ske snabbt – inom veckor, inte månader, säger hon vid en pressträff på onsdagen. Samtidigt meddelar Magdalena Andersson att Sveriges säkerhetspolitiska analys kan vara klar tidigare än beräknat.

www.svt.se

They talked about the various risks posed by Russia during the coming period to try to influence in particular Finland's decision making process including cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns.

One example possible attempt at disinformation is a video recently published, showing K-300P Bastion systems heading towards Finland: Militärexpert avvisar video som påstås visa tunga ryska vapen på väg mot Finland: "Ser ut att handla om informationspåverkan" – Inrikes – svenska.yle.fi

There are also reports of cyberattacks, and a Russian airplane violating Finnish airspace recently. Finland Hit by Cyber Attack, Airspace Breach as NATO Bid Weighed - Bloomberg

What Russia seem not to comprehend is that things like this will just strengthen Finnish resolve and make it more, not less, likely that they will decide to join NATO.

Edit: One of Finlands responses to the Russian "disinformation war": Jake Adelstein/中本哲史 on Twitter: "https://t.co/KbCtuspUtY" / Twitter
This one is also trending in Finland right now:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513826302582833154

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Israel too has refrained from shipping Ukraine weapons and they depend on US military more than any other nation in the world.

Israel, the one major US ally that does not need either tens of thousands of American troops on its soil or a defensive treaty, is the one most dependent on the US military. Okay.

 

[John Fedup]

Israel, the one major US ally that does not need either tens of thousands of American troops on its soil or a defensive treaty, is the one most dependent on the US military. Okay.

The US military or defence treaty, no need, the US Treasury department is another matter though.

 

[vonnoobie]

Israel, the one major US ally that does not need either tens of thousands of American troops on its soil or a defensive treaty, is the one most dependent on the US military. Okay.

Well to an extent they are seeing as the US currently provides Israel $3.8 billion a year in direct military aid...

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Well to an extent they are seeing as the US currently provides Israel $3.8 billion a year in direct military aid...

Which is less than what most US allies get in less direct ways, such as expensive deployments and infrastructure.

And speaking of which, the US and Ukraine should work to create WRSA on Ukrainian soil.
Israel's aid is described as a way to obtain QME - Qualitative Military Edge, meaning it's military only, and we know the terms which are 100% spending on American products, plus a set amount for joint developments.
Ukraine should receive a similarly structured aid. Joint development and low risk (corruption risk, that is) aid.
This can allow Ukraine to stand quickly on its feet military-wise, while pulling it away from any foreign investor like China, while de-escalating with Russia should Ukraine opt for temporary neutrality.

 

[Vivendi]

Today the Finnish government published the "Government Report on changes in the security environment": Government report on changes in the security environment - Valto (valtioneuvosto.fi)

Link to the full, unclassified report (English version): Government report on changes in the security environment (valtioneuvosto.fi)

From chapter 2:

The war started by Russia jeopardises the security and stability of the whole of Europe. Russia’s declared goal is to change the European security order. The demands presented by Russia in December 2021 were similar to those it has presented earlier. Russia demands that NATO and the United States refrain from further NATO enlargement, establishment of military bases in the former Soviet territory and deployment of weapons systems in NATO member countries that joined NATO after 1997. Russia’s demands that seek to restrict the freedom of sovereign states in their choices in foreign and security policy cannot be accepted.

On 24 February 2022, at the orders of President Putin, Russia launched a direct military offensive against Ukraine. The offensive blatantly violates international law. Russia’s actions violate the United Nations Charter, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Helsinki Final Act, the OSCE Paris Charter and the Budapest Document of 1994. Russia is committed to all these documents. The aggression violates Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and poses a serious threat to international peace and security.

Russia was preparing for a large-scale use of military force against Ukraine last year by concentrating and deploying troops, materiel and equipment, and conducting exercises and using other means of military pressure. Preparations for military aggression were preceded by the illegal annexation of Crimea and the use of clandestine military force in Southeast Ukraine for several years, as well as hybrid influence activities. Russia has targeted cyber operations at Ukraine for a long time, including the use of spyware, disruptions in the electricity grid and denial-of-service attacks. Russia also paved the way for its invasion by means of sustained information campaigns against Ukraine and the West. The aim was to shape public opinion through threat scenarios and historico-political narrative. Russia did not achieve its objectives with these means and launched a full-scale military offensive against Ukraine on several fronts.

During the parliamentary reading of the report, the Government will give more detailed information and assessments to Parliament, which cannot be included in the public report.

Interesting read!

 

[Twain]

Just to clarify -- Sweden and Finland have not yet made a formal decision to join. One Swedish newspaper claimed today (based on anonymous sources) that the Swedish PM has decided that Sweden should join NATO, but she refuted this during the press conference today, instead saying that Sweden will have a "serious process" to consider pros and cons before making a decision.

Nevertheless, as I mentioned in a previous post, it's highly likely that Finland will join and it will happen quite fast. And if Finland joins, it very likely that Sweden will decide that they cannot remain the only country in Northern Europe outside of NATO, and therefore will decide that they also have to join.

Finnish decision is expected "within weeks" -- it is not clear when the Swedish decision will be made, but probably also quite soon. Sweden is preparing an analysis report that will be used as a foundation to make a decision, and this report will be ready "not later than 31st of May", however the Swedish PM made it clear that it may be ready sooner.

Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson's goal is for Sweden to join NATO in June this year - the party leadership has decided, S sources for SvD state.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514320844775907328

 

[Feanor]

Guys this thread is for the Russo-Ukrainian war discussion. For general discussion of Russian relations with the West, or the US-Israeli relationship, please take it to the appropriate thread.

 

[John Fedup]

Today the Finnish government published the "Government Report on changes in the security environment": Government report on changes in the security environment - Valto (valtioneuvosto.fi)

Link to the full, unclassified report (English version): Government report on changes in the security environment (valtioneuvosto.fi)

From chapter 2:


During the parliamentary reading of the report, the Government will give more detailed information and assessments to Parliament, which cannot be included in the public report.

Interesting read!

Had a quick glance and it is a very comprehensive document. Many of the points really do support a NATO membership. Can’t help but think Finland joining will be sufficient for Sweden to join, a necessary message to Putin’s tragic $hitshow.

edit

@Feanor. Posted before your message. Move to Russia and the West thread at your convenience.

 

[hauritz]

You have to wonder how Russia will react if Finland and/or Sweden join NATO.
I can't really think of what they could do. There is that period between when they announce their intention to join, up to when they are accepted, during which time they technically aren't under NATO protection. Perhaps they might try some sort of military action then.

 

[Twain]

Newly announced military aid

Czechia:
20+ RM-70 Vampire MRLs
20+ 152mm ShKH vz. 77 DANA SPGs

US: -
16 Mi-17 helicopters -
18 155mm howitzers -
300 or 3000 Switchblade LMs -
2 AN/MPQ-64 radars -
10 AN/TPQ-36 radars -
200 M113 APCs -
100 HMMWVs

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514323803467403269

I'm not sure how much help the M113/s will be other than in enhanced mobility. Not on this list but announced, unmanned coastal defence systems, I'd like to know what exactly what they are. In regard to the switchblades, it's wasn't announced if it is the 300 or 600 and the amount is unclear, 30 systems consisting of 10 suicide drones each or 300 systems for 3000 drones.

Apparently there is so much military equipment headed to/through Poland that the railyards are getting congested.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513952295284793348

Edit: Full list of the next installment of US aid

 

[T.C.P]

Newly announced military aid

Czechia:
20+ RM-70 Vampire MRLs
20+ 152mm ShKH vz. 77 DANA SPGs

US: -
16 Mi-17 helicopters -
18 155mm howitzers -
300 or 3000 Switchblade LMs -
2 AN/MPQ-64 radars -
10 AN/TPQ-36 radars -
200 M113 APCs -
100 HMMWVs

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514323803467403269

I'm not sure how much help the M113/s will be other than in enhanced mobility. Not on this list but announced, unmanned coastal defence systems, I'd like to know what exactly what they are. In regard to the switchblades, it's wasn't announced if it is the 300 or 600 and the amount is unclear, 30 systems consisting of 10 suicide drones each or 300 systems for 3000 drones.

Apparently there is so much military equipment headed to/through Poland that the railyards are getting congested.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1513952295284793348

Edit: Full list of the next installment of US aid

View attachment 49106

Genuine Question, Why can't Russia use their satellites to track the heavy equipment coming into Ukraine and just bomb them when they cross into the Ukranian border? They have long range missiles, what capability are the Russians lacking, that prevent them from doing this?

 

[wild_Willie2]

Russian long range missles are only suited for hitting static, preplanned targets. Not a moving vehicle. They would need to guide weapons in via a datalink or laser and this would mean getting a spotter overhead. As it is most likely that NATO AWACS are monitoring the battlespace from just outsider the border, getting strike aircraft to western Ukraine without exposing them to SAM or even fighter intercepts is quite risky for minimal returns as the new equipment will be transporter via different means and routes in order to minimise losses if a strike should accur. Also, Ukraine is big and the ukranians should know exactly when a satelite will be overhead. They would Just need to park the transport trucks under some trees at fixed times to avoid having them spotted by EO satelites

 

[tonnyc]

Also, Ukraine is big and the ukranians should know exactly when a satelite will be overhead. They would Just need to park the transport trucks under some trees at fixed times to avoid having them spotted by EO satelites

While this is not impossible, it's also very tedious. Due to the orbital mechanics involved, a spy satellite doesn't pass overhead once a day at a leisurely pace taking a careful look at everything below. Rather, they pass overhead anywhere between once to four times an hour, each time lasting only a few minutes. The exact frequency and duration varies depending on the orbit chosen. Generally, the lower the orbit, it will pass faster and more often.

This means that rather than stopping once a day for about an hour, we are looking at stopping at potentially every fifteen minutes, waiting 2-3 minutes, and go again. Not impossible, but extremely tedious.

 

[QEDdeq]

Russian long range missiles are only suited for hitting static, preplanned targets. Not a moving vehicle. They would need to guide weapons in via a datalink or laser and this would mean getting a spotter overhead. As it is most likely that NATO AWACS are monitoring the battlespace from just outsider the border, getting strike aircraft to western Ukraine without exposing them to SAM or even fighter intercepts is quite risky for minimal returns as the new equipment will be transporter via different means and routes in order to minimise losses if a strike should occur. Also, Ukraine is big and the Ukrainians should know exactly when a satellite will be overhead. They would Just need to park the transport trucks under some trees at fixed times to avoid having them spotted by EO satellites

Russia could bomb the rail line and rail bridges ahead and behind the train thus forcing the train to stop in the middle of the field. Then bomb the static target. Or bomb the train during loading/unloading. There are ways to do it if they would think creatively.

However, I think the main reason why Russia is not doing this is because they have no intention to launch the offensive in Donbas. Their (in)actions do not corroborate with an intention of launching a massive attack. If this was true they would show more intense testing of enemy positions and more aerial bombing, interdiction of supply lines and so on. In my view they simply move units around to use that as a pressure point in the negotiations. What Russians wanted from the get go was Mariupol and eliminating its capacity to interdict land, air and sea links with Crimea in case of a major war. Mariupol as a NATO base could have served very well as a counterweight to Crimea, blocking the Russian movement until Crimea would fall. So, with this primary objective achieved and with Lugansk oblast captured almost entirely the Russians could just sit and look threatening until Ukraine is willing to concede.

 

[Pentaprism]

Russia could bomb the rail line and rail bridges ahead and behind the train thus forcing the train to stop in the middle of the field. Then bomb the static target. Or bomb the train during loading/unloading. There are ways to do it if they would think creatively.

However, I think the main reason why Russia is not doing this is because they have no intention to launch the offensive in Donbas. Their (in)actions do not corroborate with an intention of launching a massive attack. If this was true they would show more intense testing of enemy positions and more aerial bombing, interdiction of supply lines and so on. In my view they simply move units around to use that as a pressure point in the negotiations. What Russians wanted from the get go was Mariupol and eliminating its capacity to interdict land, air and sea links with Crimea in case of a major war. Mariupol as a NATO base could have served very well as a counterweight to Crimea, blocking the Russian movement until Crimea would fall. So, with this primary objective achieved and with Lugansk oblast captured almost entirely the Russians could just sit and look threatening until Ukraine is willing to concede.

Interesting, I was also wondering why they don't just take out some Bridges. If the aim is some sort of frozen conflict then at least that will slow down the destruction a bit. But if they continue to allow Ukraine to import Arms surely at some point Ukraine will get strong enough to force them out?

Hard to see a good exit strategy for Putin as this point.

Meanwhile Russia has claimed to have destroyed one of the donated S-300 systems.

Russian forces destroy foreign supplies of missile systems in Ukraine

MOSCOW - Russia's armed forces have destroyed air defense equipment supplied to Ukraine by a European country, the Russian Defense Ministry said Monday.

www.chinadaily.com.cn

 

[CJR]

Ukraine claims it's hit the Russian missile cruiser Moskva with antiship missiles. For instance:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514348608346337287

There seems to be confirmation from a Russian news agency (though always risk of a hacked twitter profile or misreporting) that Moskva is on fire and abandoned:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514378082660069379

If so, that's the largest naval ship lost in combat since WW2...

 

[cdxbow]

Ukraine claims it's hit the Russian missile cruiser Moskva with antiship missiles. For instance:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514348608346337287

There seems to be confirmation from a Russian news agency (though always risk of a hacked twitter profile or misreporting) that Moskva is on fire and abandoned:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514378082660069379

If so, that's the largest naval ship lost in combat since WW2...

Those big missiles lined up on the deck must make these ships very vulnerable to just about any sort of attack. The Ukrainians had claimed some hours earlier to have hit it with Neptune missiles and damaged it. Telegram: Contact @novaya_europe Alleged translation -

'The head of the Odessa region administration Maxim Marchenko said in a telegram channel that the Russian cruiser was hit by Neptune missiles. According to Marchenko, "Moscow" suffered "very serious damage."

Adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Alexei Arestovich said that a fire broke out on the cruiser. He said there were 510 people on board.

Both Arestovich and Marchenko clarified that the cruiser "Moscow" participated in the capture of the island of Snake. According to them, the Ukrainian border guards told the crew of this particular cruiser: "Russian warship, go *****".

About the cruiser "Moscow"

This is a missile cruiser, which became the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the main ship of the 1164 project "Atlant". It was built in Nikolaev and launched in 1979, it is said on the website of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. RIA Novosti in 2020 wrote that the crew of "Moscow" is 500 people. '

What will be revealed as the truth, when the fog of war lifts?