The Royal Navy Discussions and Updates

[Musashi_kenshin]

The economic benefit of the build could force the MOD's hands if the government see a benefit, which they probably would.

I can't rule it out, just as I can't rule out Keir Starmer ripping off a mask after the election and saying "haha, I was Jeremy Corbyn all along, I'm selling all the military's equipment for scrap!"

Let's look at the actual situation right now. Rishi Sunak is currently weak. He doesn't have the political capital to waste on trying to make Grant Shapps transfer a Type 26 to Norway with nothing for the MoD. Shapps will be looking to his position post-election and will want to be on the Shadow Cabinet, assuming he keeps his seat. If he gives a Type 26 to Norway for nothing, his position with Tory members will probably go down - it will be easy for his opponents to paint him as weak.

A deal with Norway isn't going to win Sunak the election - it won't even help him hold on to seats. In those circumstances I don't think the Navy has any reason to just limply give up a ship it really needs.

Take a look at Navylookout's recent entry on escort availability. It's bad, with ships repeatedly breaking down for the only reason that they're old. Even ships that have been in refit aren't immune to needing to be laid up - see HMS Somerset. There is no scope to redirect ships under build because the Navy already is having to cancel or defer operations due to a lack of ships. Imagine what it will be like by 2028.

Norway has limited options if it wants a high end frigate reasonably soon. You can't just say "oh, we realise we need this really high-spec frigate in five years, just give us some of yours please because Russia". Even if the F110-class was regarded as being adequate, they're being built until 2029 - and the ships they're replacing are even older the the Type 23s, so I don't see Spain giving them a ship early. Is anyone other than Navantia and BAE reasonably in this competition? Another generic MEKO isn't a likely candidate.

Therefore it's fairly certain in my mind Norway will just go with what they think is the best design and price, so long as they can get ships reasonably early in the 2030s onwards.

The best case scenario for Norway would be getting a Type 26 out of the current build queue with a pay-off for the MoD to make up for the delay, whether extra paid refits or money being given for the Type 32. However, the cost of more life-extension work wouldn't be cheap, which is why I think these rumours are at most considering options rather than real plans.

This discussion has all come about from BAE lobbying. It obviously helps their business case if they can offer frigates in a stupidly quick time - BAE couldn't care if the Royal Navy was laid up for the next decade due to ship unavailability so long as they get orders. There is zero evidence they have any political support for delaying frigate orders to the RN.

If there is a follow on to Type 31's then the disruption to numbers from any delay would be relatively minimal.

First, that requires money the Treasury so far has refused to provide. Second, the Type 31 is completely different from the Type 26, and no work on the Type 32 has been conducted. Even if authorisation was given for a Type 31 with Mk41 VLS system inserted at the start, that won't make up for less or late Type 26s.

As for extra capacity, if BAE want to invest more they can. I suppose they could use the existing build hall to construct Type 26s for Norway whilst the new factory would be used for the ships going to the RN. But that doesn't get Norway to a Type 26 ready for 2029.

 

[StobieWan]

Well, the deal won't really be a vote winner for either Labour or Conservative as all of the ship building is happening in Scotland. And in a sense, I'm sure it would "prove" to the SNP that the yards would be viable post independence and who wants that ?

I'm sure we can have a chat with the Norwegians and iron something out however.

 

[John Fedup]

Well, the deal won't really be a vote winner for either Labour or Conservative as all of the ship building is happening in Scotland. And in a sense, I'm sure it would "prove" to the SNP that the yards would be viable post independence and who wants that ?

I'm sure we can have a chat with the Norwegians and iron something out however.

If CSC was faster off the mark I am sure junior would have offered the first RCN build to Norway as deficit reduction but follow on vessels would be difficult.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Well, the deal won't really be a vote winner for either Labour or Conservative as all of the ship building is happening in Scotland. And in a sense, I'm sure it would "prove" to the SNP that the yards would be viable post independence and who wants that ?

I think that the next (Labour) government would be quite happy for more ship orders in Scotland because they probably wouldn't be signed until after the next general election, and therefore would be able to take credit for them. Certainly it wouldn't hurt their chances to get back to power in the devolved Scottish government in 2026. The SNP are on the ropes with little way off.

I'm sure we can have a chat with the Norwegians and iron something out however.

Absolutely. It's just about expectation management. BAE would like to sell ships already being built for the RN to Norway because it would almost guarantee the contract, assuming the budget for the RNN is approved by their parliament. They put the idea out there, lean on HMG and beg for help because otherwise the UK shipbuilding industry will fail, etc.

If we just explain to Norway that we can't give them ships from batch 1 because they're desperately needed in the RN, I'm sure they'd understand. We might be able to give them ship 5.

If CSC was faster off the mark I am sure junior would have offered the first RCN build to Norway as deficit reduction but follow on vessels would be difficult.

Finally, a benefit of starting construction late!

 

[StobieWan]

I think that the next (Labour) government would be quite happy for more ship orders in Scotland because they probably wouldn't be signed until after the next general election, and therefore would be able to take credit for them. Certainly it wouldn't hurt their chances to get back to power in the devolved Scottish government in 2026. The SNP are on the ropes with little way off.



Absolutely. It's just about expectation management. BAE would like to sell ships already being built for the RN to Norway because it would almost guarantee the contract, assuming the budget for the RNN is approved by their parliament. They put the idea out there, lean on HMG and beg for help because otherwise the UK shipbuilding industry will fail, etc.

If we just explain to Norway that we can't give them ships from batch 1 because they're desperately needed in the RN, I'm sure they'd understand. We might be able to give them ship 5.



Finally, a benefit of starting construction late!

The SNP thing, I must admit, I'd forgotten we'd moved away from the frankly incredible moment where the Scottish Conservative party had driven Labour into 3rd place in Scotland to the current situation where ...ah, well, let's summarise for the non-UK audience and say that the waters around them have grown.


Of course, we're not here to discuss politics except where it touches the possible effects on defence but is true to say that a newly elected Scottish Labour government would likely welcome fresh orders from basically out of the blue, well, understatement I also suspect that an English Parliament may well be inclined to look favourably on matters as well.

 

[spoz]

It is of course a UK Parliament. Unlike Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, England does not have its own devolved Parliament. So Scottish, Welsh and Irish MPs get to vote on the purely English issues the Parliament sometimes consider.

 

[SD67]

Written answers in Parliament 5 days ago

https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2024-04-24/23413

"His Majesty's Government and the Royal Navy are working jointly with BAE Systems on options to support Norway's future Frigate Programme."

Personal take - everyone wants it to happen. Norway is just about the closest ally we have, and in the front line vis a vis Russia. If it's boat 4 (2029 if BAE get their skates on) by then the RN will have an ASW fleet arguably better than they have today, when considered in the round (availability, capability), and it's not as if the boat is going to the other side of the planet.

The new build hall will be a game changer and Sir Simon Lister has talked about subbing out more fabrication work if needed to accelerate.