The Future of NATO

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
given the fact that other nations within the EU are alot more capable and spend much less.
Much less is a relative thing. Greece has been actively cutting down and is closing in on the 3% mark. That's the same mark the UK was at 5 years ago, starting from the same position at the end of the Cold War (UK is currently at 2.7-2.9%). The "standard" for EU member states is about half that at 1.4% to 1.5%.

a relative small nation [...] other nations within the EU are alot more capable
Greece is, regarding both its size and its per-capita GDP, pretty much the posterboy for EU average. There are four other EU member countries in the size class of Greece, and the Greeks are outperforming all of them considerably.

No one expects Greece to field and fund a military comparable to one of the big four. But due to their situation and history they do field one that's effectively one level above their weight class.
 

Astute

New Member
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In this thread i have read the replies regarding the future of nato, but could nato be on the brink of being called into action, everyone i suspect as been watching the developing crisis surrounding Iran,its continuing development of weapons grade uranium and the threat of an attack against Turkey and other surrounding countries,im sure any attack against Turkey would trigger nato action, would nato react ,

Also could the internal problems in Syria spread and escalate with the US sending a carrier to the eastern med and russia sending its own carrier and escorts to visit its basicaly abandoned navy base in Syria prompt a stand off between the old cold war adversaries , Russia did say it had planned the visit in 2010 before the current unrest but do you think it could be a counter move to the US deployment , also with the Russian announcement of possible targeting the European missile sheild locations and actavating its own air defence network are there signs of another cold war brewing ,Could it be that Russia,Iran have seen the reduction in European members Defence budgets and cuts with in there armed forces and on top of that the continuing economical mess in the US and Europe may have weakned Nato,and come to the conclusion that they now fancy there chances.

I would like to hear your thoughts.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The basically abandoned base has been seeing increased activity for about 3 years now with regular visits from BSF, Baltic Flett, and NF taskforces. I think Russia is definitely keeping a close eye on the situation in Syria. However I doubt they will militarily interfere in case of a NATO action. More likely protect the base, or worst case scenario evacuate it.

There is likely to be a detachment of Marines on board.
 

Beatmaster

New Member
In this thread i have read the replies regarding the future of nato, but could nato be on the brink of being called into action, everyone i suspect as been watching the developing crisis surrounding Iran,its continuing development of weapons grade uranium and the threat of an attack against Turkey and other surrounding countries,im sure any attack against Turkey would trigger nato action, would nato react ,

Also could the internal problems in Syria spread and escalate with the US sending a carrier to the eastern med and russia sending its own carrier and escorts to visit its basicaly abandoned navy base in Syria prompt a stand off between the old cold war adversaries , Russia did say it had planned the visit in 2010 before the current unrest but do you think it could be a counter move to the US deployment , also with the Russian announcement of possible targeting the European missile sheild locations and actavating its own air defence network are there signs of another cold war brewing ,Could it be that Russia,Iran have seen the reduction in European members Defence budgets and cuts with in there armed forces and on top of that the continuing economical mess in the US and Europe may have weakned Nato,and come to the conclusion that they now fancy there chances.

I would like to hear your thoughts.
I personally believe that the threat from Iran to Turkey is just sabre ratteling.
Iran would be able to strike Turkey and would be able to deliver a serious blow.
However with the huge amount of US and Nato bases in the region and specificly in Turkey itself it would be a incredible stupid action by Iran which if it does carry trough with the threat give both Israel, Saudi Arabia a perfect reason to jump in.
Not to mention the US and NATO that would have little trouble to bomb Iran back to the stone age.
Keep in mind the middle east has the highest consentration of western troops on the planet, infact with the amount of bases and allies in the region is probably the best defended region in the world.
Israel, Afganistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Quatar and United Emirates is packed with US and NATO bases.
Not to mention the US Carrier groups in the region and the massive NATO support that will come down on Iran.

I am not sure but i believe that Iran has better odds in attacking Israel then attacking Nato directly by hitting turkey this because If Iran would attack Israel then the US and several others will jump in however i do not believe that the whole NATO will come into action, however if it attacks Turkey then its not only Israel and the US that will come knocking at their doors but it will involve NATO as well not to mention the " friendly" nations around Iran that would be outraged...
Still it does not matter either way Iran has 0 % in getting any victory as they are both in defense and offence seriously outnumbered and outmatched. And it would lose the support from Russia and China ( not saying that they supporting Iran in terms of allies but they have been known to close a eye now and then) well this wil change the moment Iran goes hostile.

The only real risk that might come from this war is:

A: Conventional Missiles that Iran has they could target large cities, bases and strategic positions
B: Rebels funded by Iran and "other" rebels like taliban might see this possible new war as a way to achieve their goals and create havoc.
Keep in mind the Taliban for example is still active and are still able to use IED's and hit and run attacks which will claim ALOT of lifes this same applies for rebel groups like hezzbollah and many others in that region if they would come into action.
Not to mention the fact that some of those rebel groups are pretty well trained and armed not to mentio the fact that they are battle proven and ready.
So a spark might lead to a serious wild fire.
C: Possible dirty bombs or a small nuke that Iran might have (None really knows)
D: That the war itself will make the whole region collapse and trigger anarchy and local warlords might try to grab their moment of power, as the whole region from Egypt to Yemen to Pakistan all the way up to Azerbijan is very unstable, so despite what everyone says but noone really knows what this might do to the region and what the long term effects good be.
E: Last option is that Iran manages to have the region turn against the west (dunnot believe this ever would happen but i cannot rule it out either)

So as i said i am not sure but i think this scenario is really real, and for the future of NATO this will be a serious factor to consider however its in both Irans and NATO's intrest to keep talking to eachother and due the economic crisis in the EU and in the world the long term effects of a war between Iran and the "rest" would have a really nasty bite (economic wise)
Nato and the US know Iran has zero options (Warwise) so they will not fear a serious action by Iran, However Iran knows this perfectly well and might exploit this till NATO has no other option then give the green light to open fire and for now it seems Iran is able to walk between the lines and keep sabre rattling without crossing the point of no return.
The only real worry Iran should have his Israel at this point as Israel is known to be able to execute a precision strike against their nuke program.
Keep in mind Israel did this 2 times succesfully in the past against Syria and Iraq i believe??? (Not sure)
And to be honest Israel can and will act if they got enough reason and it seems that this reason becomes more justified by the day....
 
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