Second Cold War

[Vivendi]

No. I think that the USA and Russia will be on the verge of confrontation in the near future and through the 2020's. Call it Cold War 2. That will last until Russia's demographic issues and decreased reliance on fossil fuels pushes them aside.
-DA

What makes you think so? Soviet and communism is gone, Russia is embracing capitalism.

Why would Russia and the US be "on the verge of confrontation"?

The relationship is better than ever; Russian and NATO forces are training together; RUssia buys Mistral from France, etc.

Some people both in US and Russia lives "in the past" and they are IMHO the main reason we sometimes see friction between Russia and the US. Otherwise I don't see why Russia and US should clash?

 

[STURM]

Shortly after the Japanese and Turks will be the nations that we will be dealing with.-DA

I'm very curious to find out why you think so. Japan's main concern for the in the long run will continue to be a rising China and off course the Korean peninsular.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011520132829219646.html

Why would Russia and the US be "on the verge of confrontation"?

There is the matter of the proposed missile shield to be based in Poland, which has annoyed the Russians and understandbly so. And there is the possibility that trouble in Georgia will flare up again. Russia is also involved in a 'great game' in Central Asia against the U.S. and China for influence.

 

[Feanor]

No. I think that the USA and Russia will be on the verge of confrontation in the near future and through the 2020's. Call it Cold War 2. That will last until Russia's demographic issues and decreased reliance on fossil fuels pushes them aside. Shortly after the Japanese and Turks will be the nations that we will be dealing with.

-DA

I'm not sure why a NATO member, and a close US ally would be in a cold war against the US.

 

[DarthAmerica]

I'm not sure why a NATO member, and a close US ally would be in a cold war against the US.

In 1944 people wouldn't have been sure Germany, Italy and Japan would be close allies in 2011 either. Always remember, there are no allies, only common interest. When you understand that you'll understand why the conflicts I speak of are coming.

-DA

 

[Kirkzzy]

In 1944 people wouldn't have been sure Germany, Italy and Japan would be close allies in 2011 either. Always remember, there are no allies, only common interest. When you understand that you'll understand why the conflicts I speak of are coming.

-DA

umm.. the US has military based in Japan and Japan's main priorities atm are China and NK. On top of that, Japan itself is declining rapidly.. at the current rate they could not be able to challenge the US in this century. By the end of the century their population will be just 30 million... no way in hell they will take on the US.

As for Turkey.. as someone else pointed out, NATO. And lets just take into account "only common interest." I for one have not seen Turkey making any aggressive moves recently or trying to expand its influence, especially not against the US.

 

[DarthAmerica]

umm.. the US has military based in Japan and Japan's main priorities atm are China and NK. On top of that, Japan itself is declining rapidly.. at the current rate they could not be able to challenge the US in this century. By the end of the century their population will be just 30 million... no way in hell they will take on the US.

As for Turkey.. as someone else pointed out, NATO. And lets just take into account "only common interest." I for one have not seen Turkey making any aggressive moves recently or trying to expand its influence, especially not against the US.

You don't understand geopolitical imperatives and that alliances are not permanent. If you don't see Turkish influence increasing then you really need to look closer.

-DA

 

[StevoJH]

umm.. the US has military based in Japan and Japan's main priorities atm are China and NK. On top of that, Japan itself is declining rapidly.. at the current rate they could not be able to challenge the US in this century. By the end of the century their population will be just 30 million... no way in hell they will take on the US.

128 Million to 30 million in about 3 generations, short of a war or plague is that even possible?

 

[T.C.P]

If you look at the idea of a confrontation between the US and Turkey in the context of the next say 15-20 years then that is a bit absurd, but look beyond it say 30-40 years then DA could be right, alliances are never permanent, history at least teaces us that much.

Turkey's influence is growing at a huge pace, it will soon be if it is not already the governing superpower in the Mid-East, its influence is already very high in the Mediterranean and this will continue to grow.

 

[Vivendi]

It seems to me that Turkey is expected to remain a NATO ally at least for some time to come -- just look at the F-35 deal.

Turkey is tier 2 partner, gets a lot of F-35 work, and will by a large number of the most advanced fighter jet on the planet. Not likely the US would do that if the assumption was that Turkey could turn against the US in the near future.

As others have said, longer-term anything can happen.

 

[STURM]

I won't comment about a possible 'cold war' or a competition between Turkey and the U.S. in the near future because I feel that if we base such scenarios solely on certain current geo-political/threat assessments - the need of countries to expend and protect their areas of influence, the need to mantain access to energy supplies, as well as food supplies - half of all the countries in the world will be in conflict with their neighbours, and other countries, in the future!

As I see it, Turkey's main concern, now and in the near future is it's Kurdish 'problem'. The Greeks have to much pressing problems of their own at the moment to cause any problems for Turkey. Further afield, the Middle East is an area of vast importance forTurkey, economicly - but the thing to bear in is that most Arab states, despite sharing a common Islamic heritage with Turkey, still harbour deep suspicions of Turkey because of Turkey's Ottoman past, when it controlled practically the whole region. That's one reason Turkey cultivated a strong defence relationship with Israel beginning in the 1990's, because the Arabs were unwilling to do the same. Another area of extreme importance to Turkey is its backyard, the Caucasus, and gaining access to the oil there.

 

[DarthAmerica]

If you look at the idea of a confrontation between the US and Turkey in the context of the next say 15-20 years then that is a bit absurd, but look beyond it say 30-40 years then DA could be right, alliances are never permanent, history at least teaces us that much.

Turkey's influence is growing at a huge pace, it will soon be if it is not already the governing superpower in the Mid-East, its influence is already very high in the Mediterranean and this will continue to grow.

This is exactly the right time frame to use. Turkish influence is skyrocketing and between Turkey, Iran(which could in the next 10 years be a US ally again), and Saudi Arabia; there exist a lot of regional competition. Let's not forget that while perception of Turkey today is of a second tier power, just a century ago they ruled the Ottoman Empire! When you consider Turkish history, influence, regional strategic importance and US policy a confrontation several decades out is not inconcievable.

Some here need to understand that nations don't say, "hey, we sold you the F-35 and you're a NATO member so we'll never war." That's not how it works in the real world. F-35 is just a platform meant to be sold and NATO is an alliance structure that was built to defend against a threat that no longer exist.

-DA

 

[Feanor]

In 1944 people wouldn't have been sure Germany, Italy and Japan would be close allies in 2011 either. Always remember, there are no allies, only common interest. When you understand that you'll understand why the conflicts I speak of are coming.

-DA

I'm not so sure that Russia will necessarily succumb to demographic problems. They were in a straight up nose dive 10 years ago, now they're on a gentle descent, with a tendency for birthrates to increase. By 2020 they could well be in the positives again. The question is whether they can diversify from resource extraction (and they sure are trying). I do however agree that they are unlikely to compete with the US in the more distant future. I suspect they will either become an EU member, or a very close partner of the EU, in the long run to the extent that they will participate in joint EU operations, and defense programs, effectively exiting the global stage, and resigning themselves to be a regional power.

 

[Feanor]

This is exactly the right time frame to use. Turkish influence is skyrocketing and between Turkey, Iran(which could in the next 10 years be a US ally again), and Saudi Arabia; there exist a lot of regional competition. Let's not forget that while perception of Turkey today is of a second tier power, just a century ago they ruled the Ottoman Empire! When you consider Turkish history, influence, regional strategic importance and US policy a confrontation several decades out is not inconcievable.

A confrontation is quite conceivable, but a second cold war? We would need competing ideologies with global reach for starters. Second off no matter how successful Turkey becomes, it will hardly be the next USSR (i.e. a global super power with nuclear weapons, a gigantic military, and a web of alliances stretching into multiple continents). Unless you think Turkey will swallow up large chunks of the Middle East (again) I don't see this as being possible. They're just not that large of a country.

 

[Kirkzzy]

128 Million to 30 million in about 3 generations, short of a war or plague is that even possible?

[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_future_population"]List of countries by past and future population - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

Fileopulation of Japan since 1872.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Sorry for the wikipedia

Population decline worsening | The Japan Times Online

2. Population of Japan 1870-2100 (this link doesn't predict the worse scenario, and is fairly optimistic)

I think I've proven my point, its gonna get real low unless they do something fast. And they are going to have to rely on another country for protection (the US) if their population keeps declining at the rate it is at the moment.

Although I think if we are talking about next cold war/superpowers vying for power then we need to look at the potential super powers. We got China, Russia, Brazil and India as the main contenders. What we have to do is work out their current relation to the US, what influence they are trying to gain at the moment and how this will affect the future and how the US (and the west) will react to this.

 

[DarthAmerica]

List of countries by past and future population - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Fileopulation of Japan since 1872.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Sorry for the wikipedia

Population decline worsening | The Japan Times Online

2. Population of Japan 1870-2100 (this link doesn't predict the worse scenario, and is fairly optimistic)

I think I've proven my point, its gonna get real low unless they do something fast. And they are going to have to rely on another country for protection (the US) if their population keeps declining at the rate it is at the moment.

Although I think if we are talking about next cold war/superpowers vying for power then we need to look at the potential super powers. We got China, Russia, Brazil and India as the main contenders. What we have to do is work out their current relation to the US, what influence they are trying to gain at the moment and how this will affect the future and how the US (and the west) will react to this.

Outside of unpredictable cases niether China, Russia, Brazil and India are not long term sustainable threat outside of their immediate regions beyond 2020-2030. Either too fractious, geographically disadvantaged or bad demographics +/-.

-DA

-DA

 

[Vivendi]

Some here need to understand that nations don't say, "hey, we sold you the F-35 and you're a NATO member so we'll never war." That's not how it works in the real world. F-35 is just a platform meant to be sold and NATO is an alliance structure that was built to defend against a threat that no longer exist.

-DA

The F-35 is not just "any platform" it will be the most advanced stealth fighter on this planet once it get's ready and I doubt it will be sold to any country that asks for it. What is more important however is that Turkey is not just "any customer" of F-35 but they are a partner.

Why would the US keep Turkey as a partner in the biggest and most important defence R&D project in it's history (with the possible exception of the Manhattan project) if the US believed that Turkey was about to break out of the relationship with NATO in general and the US in particular?

That's why I think the Pentagon and the White House believes that Turkey will not do that in the short-to-medium term. Longer term, anything can happen of course.

As for NATO; sure it was built to handle the cold war which is now over however NATO has been quite busy redefining it's role since then.

The fact that NATO is currently involved in several operations globally, the fact that no member has left yet, the fact that more countries have expressed a strong interest to join, and the fact that many of it's members are still cutting defence budgets is telling me that NATO has been able to redefine it's role and is therefore viable. Those countries would not be cutting their defence budgets so much if NATO is about to disappear. Also, that in itself is a strong motiviation for most if not all NATO members to stick to the alliance. Many countries in the alliance would need to boost their defence budgets considerably to maintain a credible deterrence without the backing of NATO.

To me the biggest threat to the US and NATO is China -- however China may end up like the USSR. The problem is that we don't know if that will happen in 10 years, 20 years or 100 years... And until that happens China will keep growing and keep building her military capabilities.

 

[DarthAmerica]

The F-35 is not just "any platform" it will be the most advanced stealth fighter on this planet once it get's ready and I doubt it will be sold to any country that asks for it. What is more important however is that Turkey is not just "any customer" of F-35 but they are a partner.

Why would the US keep Turkey as a partner in the biggest and most important defence R&D project in it's history (with the possible exception of the Manhattan project) if the US believed that Turkey was about to break out of the relationship with NATO in general and the US in particular?

That's why I think the Pentagon and the White House believes that Turkey will not do that in the short-to-medium term. Longer term, anything can happen of course.

As for NATO; sure it was built to handle the cold war which is now over however NATO has been quite busy redefining it's role since then.

The fact that NATO is currently involved in several operations globally, the fact that no member has left yet, the fact that more countries have expressed a strong interest to join, and the fact that many of it's members are still cutting defence budgets is telling me that NATO has been able to redefine it's role and is therefore viable. Those countries would not be cutting their defence budgets so much if NATO is about to disappear. Also, that in itself is a strong motiviation for most if not all NATO members to stick to the alliance. Many countries in the alliance would need to boost their defence budgets considerably to maintain a credible deterrence without the backing of NATO.

To me the biggest threat to the US and NATO is China -- however China may end up like the USSR. The problem is that we don't know if that will happen in 10 years, 20 years or 100 years... And until that happens China will keep growing and keep building her military capabilities.

You need to reference history a bit. Specifically Oxcart, F-14 and Sun Tzu. I don't like to be coy so I'll explain a little...

1. Oxcart would be more representative of a "most advanced" stealth platform. It's development was in COMPLETE secret and not shared. F-35 is not that. It's technological break through is as a result of the integration of avionics and the ease in which it can be produced, maintained and at reasonable cost such that others besides the USA can afford to operate it and within the existing alliance framework.

2. F-14 would be representative of an advanced type that went to a nation that only a few years later turned on the west. Always remember; "There are allies, only common interest." Always think of NATO in that context. F-35 in threat nation hands at some point in the future would not be unprecedented.

3. Finally, Sun Tzu said; "To lift an autumn hair is no sign of great strength;*to see sun and moon is no sign of sharp sight; to hear the noise of thunder is no sign of a quick ear." China is strong only in the context of their primary threat. The Chinese population and Taiwan. With regard to meaningful strategic blue water adventures, they are not the strongest regionally. Nor are they even within decades of becoming so. Even more than carriers Admirals are HARD to develop. Most regional navies facing China are autumn hares. Seeing them defeated is not sharp sighted. But defeated how? In a tactical engagement? Okay. Enter the alliance framework, Japanese or Australians and China is not so tough to contain. Economically, for all practical purposes, the Chinese economic strength is based on making "iPods". iPods the majority of their population can't afford to buy. iPods that could be manufactured in dozens of other nations with excess labor. Then China can not protect goods imported or exported. So while Chinas growth gives the illusion of strength, you have to take a detailed objective look at the foundation of that strength. Then you'll understand why they don't fit into the Second Cold War scenario.

-DA

 

[Feanor]

Turkey fits the scenario of a Cold War even less. They're simply not a major enough power to fill those shoes.

 

[DarthAmerica]

Turkey fits the scenario of a Cold War even less. They're simply not a major enough power to fill those shoes.

That ignores the history of the Ottoman Empire, current Turkish growth and future Turkish ambitions. They are certainly on a more solid foundation than China over the long term.

-DA

 

[STURM]

That ignores the history of the Ottoman Empire, current Turkish growth and future Turkish ambitions. They are certainly on a more solid foundation than China over the long term.

-DA

Darth, not tryng to be arguementative but quite a few countries have an 'imperialistic' past and have current ambitions. What they might not have - and I'm aware that the timeline you're looking at is at least 25 years from now - is the the industrial base and the economy, to really be a big player, to really influence events.

I live in South East Asia, and as far as I'm concerned, the countries to watch out for, the countries that will really be ''players'' are India and China. Yes, we can say that the Chinese economy is a bubble that will eventually burst or that the vast majority of China's 1 billion can't afford an I Phone or a Blackberry, nonetheless the country is moving at a very rapid pace. In 1945 who would have predicted that Germany, the U.S. and Italy would one day, be allies? who would have predicted, 2 decades ago, that one day the chinese economy would come close to overtaking the U.S. economy and that the chinese military would have mpre power projection cpabilities than many 1st World European countries?