Scotland already has a fisheries protection force with a couple of OPVs and the like. If they chose a fully independent armed forces as opposed to sustaining the current Union forces then the key indicator of capability will be finance. Scotland has 5 million people and a GDP of over $200 billion, very similar to Norway. It would also have grounds for a major territorial dispute with the rump UK over marine boundaries after the UK changed the border from Berwick to Barryburn (well inside Scotland). Independence is all about North Sea Oil and Scotland would be expected to need forces to secure their sovierntly.Scotland already has a fisheries protection force with a couple of OPVs and the like. If they chose a fully independent armed forces as opposed to sustaining the current Union forces then the key indicator of capability will be finance. Scotland has 5 million people and a GDP of over $200 billion, very similar to Norway. It would also have grounds for a major territorial dispute with the rump UK over marine boundaries after the UK changed the border from Berwick to Barryburn (well inside Scotland).
Independence is all about North Sea Oil and Scotland would be expected to need forces to secure their sovereignty. Also as a successor state it would be expected to be a member of NATO and make contributions to collective security. I would expect they would raise a reasonable small force including some tactical fighters and frigates.
The North Sea Oil question will be contentious because some of the fields will have to be shared with England.
I agree a military priority will be raising a force to protect/secure the oil rigs and associated infrastructure, a role which is currently carried out by RM/MCT assets. Alex Salmond is a huge fan of Norway (using the country as his primary role model now Ireland has gone south economically), so he could develop a parallel force and undertake joint operations with the Norwegians in the North Sea. What ever happens there will be a capability gap until the appropriate command, control, orbat and equipment is in place.
The first vote will be for independence, if the Scot's vote yes then the negotiations will begin in earnest. A second vote will be held on acceptance of any negotiated settlement. Both sides will play hard-ball particularly on debt redistribution.
It will be interesting to see if Scotland (pressure from the left/greens) opts for neutrality over NATO membership in the early years. Now the threat from the USSR is much depleted, they may opt to focus their efforts on resource protection and domestic counter terrorism and avoid overseas commitments other than UN peace keeping (follow the Irish model). In the early years Salmond will have to spend what ever he has on keeping domestic promises (free prescription charges, free University places, job creation etc.). Defence may take a back seat bar what is absolutely necessary to protect the country's natural resources. He would be wise to offset the loss of future RN contracts by ordering a batch of OPV's immediately to keep the Scottish shipyards going. All future RN work will go south for political reasons. Scotlands loss will be Newcastles gain.
Airforce wise the Scot's could demand a sqn of Typhoon be transferred or possibly even look at Gripen? Rotary and maritime surveillance (manned or unmanned) will need to be bought or transferred from the UK's inventory. He could leverage of UK/Canada fast air training until a more permanent solution is put in place, so sticking with Typhoon has merits, BAE could be engaged in a long term service contract.
How the armed forces is divided will be very contentious, easy for the Scottish Regiments with strong local ties, not so easy for RAF/Navy who have mixed nationality crews. They may have to vote on whether they want to join a new Scottish Defence Force or stay where they are. I suspect the Scottish government will offer financial incentives to encourage a switch to the new force and encourage families to relocate.
In addition to a new military the country will need to invest in a diplomatic service and domestic/overseas intelligence agency, which will also take time and money.
