Russia-Georgia Conflict: News From the War zone
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Expansion, etc. Perhaps this article will make it easier to understand Russia's latest actions and her geopolitical/military position-
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20060710/cohen
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Not really. CSTO is pointing EAST and Russia is not about to be encircled by NATO. NATO is not looking for a fight with Russia. However Russia is keen to make sure its neighbours have no choice.
The integration of air defences and RRF is modelled after NATO - it being the premier defence alliance.
What Russia does is not a reaction to NATO - Russia is acting on its own. NATO is just sitting and watching Russian rethoric and antics and saying "oh, well, let them". Putin is making noises in order to look strong - selling snake oil to the Russians, making them ignore where they are heading - the aged and scarcely populated "Cold Saudi Arabia."
Cheers
There are alot analysts (including whole bunch of Western ones) out there who would strongly disagree with that "NATO is just sitting and watching" statement. Would you call NATO expanding right on Russia's borders "just sitting and watching"?
And how could Russia ever become the "Cold Saudi Arabia" as you put it? Is Russia uneducated, backwards and technologically incompetent?
I don't think so. Unlike Saudi Arabia Russia has a lot of industrial potential, and has many successful large scale industrial enterprises. The question is whether this potential will be realized or not.
EDIT: NATO expansion is a game designed to make sure Eastern Europe will not fall under Russian influence again.
EDIT: NATO expansion is a game designed to make sure Eastern Europe will not fall under Russian influence again.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Wrt the spike in rethorics? Yes. And what's the problem with NATO? Perhaps even Russia willbe a member of NATO some day.
It's about distribution of income, flow of knowledge and know-how, ToT, transfer of best practice.
Interconnected with depopulation and a raw materials export oriented economy, it has the potential to become a "Cold Saudi Arabia". The analogy relates to subsidies skewing or killing off global competitiveness; the funneling of resources, arms and oil and probably in the future grain, destroys the ability of internal producers to stand on own feet - this again interlinked to corruption. Thus the imbalances remain and Russia is not by the Russian people, but the concentration of power at the elite.
A "Cold Saudi Arabia".
Grand Danois
Entertainer
I'll agree, but Putins rethoric and how he seeks domestic legitimacy runs against realization of this potential. See explanation in my prev post.
Is it Russias to have?
Post modern Europe is about independent democratic states making independent decisions inside a European framework - without the use of violence.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Sorry, NATO have a plan for encircling Russia in Central Asia? Have any of them sought membership or are acceeding members? No! Some are PfP, but so are Russia and Belarus, IIRC (They had quite a hard time by the Russians when they did not recognize SO & ABK
).There was a base in Kirgizstan* - shut down now that Kandahar became active and after a US-Kirgyz fallout over - human rights!!! (Those dastardly double-standardsy Westerners
.)Playing the spectre of encirclement is for those who benefit - the Kremlin elite.
*Edit - I confused it with a base in Uzbekistan - which was closed down. Manaz AB is still a logistics centre. The only Western AB in Central Asia.
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Current Russian policies suggest not. The actions taken against foreign investors in joint ventures. the handing of control of businesses to cronies & government supporters, & now the military adventurism are all discouraging to both foreign & productive domestic investors. Concentration of economic power in big firms, closely linked to the government, with chief executives appointed for their political connections, is not a recipe for long-term economic success, & recent events have investors running for cover. Look at what's happened to the Russian stock market in the last month. I don't have data on capital flows, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's been a sudden big outflow.
Putin seems to have little understanding of economics or business, & to see both economics & diplomacy as zero sum games. Medvedev & Putin together are following the same course. Not good signs.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
IIRC, 21-25 bn USD in foreign capital exited Russia. Stock market down 30-40% this year...
EU delaying a partnership agreement.
The US shelving an agreement including development of the Russian nuclear industry...
This kind of money is not just money - it's the good kind of capital which are followed by know-how, technology, best practices. Much different from empty petrodollars. The kind of money needed to diversify the Russian economy.
E.g. Russian agriculture has great potential - it just needs the transfer of knowledge. However this is dicouraged by the fears that the Russian Govt will be tempted to control it by funneling the production into a government controlled consortium - like Rosoboron in the arms industry or Gazprom in the energy sector.
So Russia will have to import its grain - despite a potential to be a major exporter.
EU delaying a partnership agreement.
The US shelving an agreement including development of the Russian nuclear industry...
This kind of money is not just money - it's the good kind of capital which are followed by know-how, technology, best practices. Much different from empty petrodollars. The kind of money needed to diversify the Russian economy.
E.g. Russian agriculture has great potential - it just needs the transfer of knowledge. However this is dicouraged by the fears that the Russian Govt will be tempted to control it by funneling the production into a government controlled consortium - like Rosoboron in the arms industry or Gazprom in the energy sector.
So Russia will have to import its grain - despite a potential to be a major exporter.
Well, I just would like to point out that after WWII, Finland, Sweden, Yugoslavia and Austria were neutral, while sandwitched between NATO and the Soviet bloc- and they never been compelled to join NATO, up to this day. If those former Warsaw pact members stopped being paranoid about the "Russian threat" (I hope you all read that article by Mr. Cohen), we wouldn't have the "encirclement" issue now. In Russia, economy is a 2nd place after security- just like in NK.
Officially, this new military force in Central Asia is going to be about 10,000 troops and is formed "to counter terrorism and NATO failure in neighboring Afghanistan".
Moscow eyes Afghanistan in fear
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JI13Ag02.html
Russia, Allies for Security in Central Asia
http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID={5C0B6EA8-5659-46A6-9DB5-AC43DF1059AC})&language=EN
CSTO to deploy troops and missile defense shield in Central Asia
http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=27032
CSTO are intended to form a new military structure in Central Asia
http://eng.gazeta.kz/art.asp?aid=117614
Let's also not forget that the most important spaceport is located in Kazakhstan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baikonur_Cosmodrome
Officially, this new military force in Central Asia is going to be about 10,000 troops and is formed "to counter terrorism and NATO failure in neighboring Afghanistan".
Moscow eyes Afghanistan in fear
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JI13Ag02.html
Russia, Allies for Security in Central Asia
http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID={5C0B6EA8-5659-46A6-9DB5-AC43DF1059AC})&language=EN
CSTO to deploy troops and missile defense shield in Central Asia
http://www.panarmenian.net/news/eng/?nid=27032
CSTO are intended to form a new military structure in Central Asia
http://eng.gazeta.kz/art.asp?aid=117614
Let's also not forget that the most important spaceport is located in Kazakhstan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baikonur_Cosmodrome
Grand Danois
Entertainer
The term Finlandization comes to mind.
Sweden was too strong and to difficult to attack - no land border. Sweden was also effectively an adjunct to NATO.
Yugoslavia was an adjunct to WARPAC and was heavily militarized - to keep Stalin away! And IIRC Churchill made a deal that Yugoslavia would not be a part of the Soviet sphere of influence - just like Greece (but not entirely sure).
Don't know how the situation wrt Austria.
Yes I read the Cohen piece; noted following:
To update on his piece I note that injection of cash into pre-natal care and an one-off incentive of 10,000 USD to families having a second child have raised fertility rates to 1.39 in 2007. This figure is of course also influenced by that the short population peak shortly before the dissolution of the Soviet Union are having their children now. A rule-of-thumb among demographers is that such incentives have a short-term effect of up to 0.20 on fertility rates. Also, life expectancy have increased slightly meaning that in 2007 the population only diminished by 3-400,000.
In about five years time the post-Soviet generations will have children, and boy, is this generation small. If present fertility rates are maintained, births in Russia will drop by c. 500,000 a year (actually more, it's 600,000, but I'm being conservative).
The question them becomes: Does Russia have the manpower to man its armed forces? Does it have the critial mass of engineers, size of market, size of economy, etc.?
"Will Russia have the virility?" as Mackinder would have phrased it.
Diversification, (and connectivity, basically what I have described before) is one of the enabling tools out of this crisis - and this tool comes from embracing the West.
What Cohen is saying is that Russia has the potential to fall apart and the West shouldn't rock the boat.
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Btw, what happened in Belarus? Moscow had to talk big in order to get Belarus to at least say it would consider recognizing SO & ABK. And now Belarus have feelers out in Brussels about joining EU?
I also forgot Albania- "the NK of Europe". Yugoslavia's Joseph Tito didn't want to be subservient to Joseph Stalin- it was "armed neutrality", Slavic style.
For Georgia, Finland's experience is something worth looking at!
This publication is very informative-
http://www.nemtsov.ru/docs/putin-itogi.pdf
But , for those who don't read Russian, this will do-
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21353
For Georgia, Finland's experience is something worth looking at!
This publication is very informative-
http://www.nemtsov.ru/docs/putin-itogi.pdf
But , for those who don't read Russian, this will do-
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21353
Grand Danois
Entertainer
Sorry, NATO have a plan for encircling Russia in Central Asia? Have any of them sought membership or are acceeding members? No! Some are PfP, but so are Russia and Belarus, IIRC (They had quite a hard time by the Russians when they did not recognize SO & ABK
There was a base in Kirgizstan* - shut down now that Kandahar became active and after a US-Kirgyz fallout over - human rights!!! (Those dastardly double-standardsy Westerners
Playing the spectre of encirclement is for those who benefit - the Kremlin elite.
*Edit - I confused it with a base in Uzbekistan - which was closed down. Manaz AB is still a logistics centre. The only Western AB in Central Asia.
I'm sorry, you cant use this argument any longer. No matter how pretty it looks on paper.
When Nato started taking in and considering states far detached from Atlantic, its already clear what its mindset is. Once if Nato takes in Georgia and Ukraine, its focus will shift to Central Asian states to pull them away from Russia and encircle Russia. This will happen in 1 way or another.
You say neither of this states requested NATO membership, but so wasnt Georgia b4 Saakashvilli, and Ukraine b4 Yushenko. Both coming in under US sponsored " colour revolutions".
Grand Danois
Entertainer
You see it that way. That's the problem.
And yes, Ukraine and Georgia has informally asked to join.
Sorry-you and the Russians are the one looking at it the wrong way. Using WARPAC thinking on NATO. NATO is voluntary organisation-countries are not forced to join, and there is no master plan to force anyone to join, or to encircle anyone else. What Putin does not like is that countries around Russias Western Frontiers would rather join NATO than be friendly with a country that forced them to be part of the Eastern Bloc for half a century.
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