Russia - General Discussion.

[ngatimozart]

@Friendly Stranger If you think that the current regime in Russia is communist then you are very ill-informed. It is about as communist as Adolf Hitler was; in fact it's far closer to Hitler's Nazism than it is to any Marxist-Lenist ideology. The only thing that Putinism, for want of a better term, has in common with the Soviet Russian communist form of government, is its extensive use of security services to oppress the population, and restrictions on political, media, and personal freedoms to smother any form of opposition to the ruling clique.

We have rules here that we expect members to follow and politics is against the rules; we have little tolerance for it. The only exception that we have is when its discussed in relation to defence and defence procurement. We especially have zero tolerance for US politics because of its divisiveness and that is jumped on really quickly. This is an international defence thread and as such we have many nationalities active on here.

We don't appreciate blatant attempts at spreading anti Russian or anti Ukrainian material as you are doing with your posts. We have expectations of reasonable assessment and unbiased analysis. Yes it can be difficult, but nevertheless we are first and foremost a defence forum and we have banned posters for posting blatant propaganda before. Be advised that we have little tolerance for such activities.

 

[Karl Franz]

True, and that's the logical (business sense) thing to do. That's why it is still 50:50 on any possibility, and it's in the market being call billion euros bet on where it is going. Nobody knows in certain how it is going to work.

Let's say Russia going to follow through on being back as reliable suppliers for those commodities (big question on that), how far will Russian can hope Euro going to open supply on tech (another big question) ? Will EU going to let ASML to supply Rostec semiconductor ambition with their EUV even DUV Litography machine ? This's just an example on one point.

I don't think Euro will going to open more those that can be call dual tech purpose, which semiconductor can be fall on. Thus in the essence what limitations on business exchange going forward is the big question. If Euro hold something, will Russia also hold something back?

Its going to be interesting to see the game develop as you put it, there are undoubtedly many issues that will have to be ironed out and many compromises made. In the end I still believe we will reach some kind of understanding, to go the other way would be detrimental to both parties and we are still in early stages of this conflict, so the bill hasn't arrived yet. Once it does, and its magnitude is revealed, there would be a lot more people willing to compromise on both sides.

Qatar and Germany have signed a deal for energy which will replace Germany's reliance on Russia. Germany, Qatar sign energy partnership agreement | Oil and Gas News | Al Jazeera. The Europeans are also looking at increasing gas supply from Nigeria once Nigeria reopens the Trans Niger pipeline at the end of August after it has improved security in the Niger Delta EU looks to replace gas from Russia with Nigerian supplies | Reuters. Fertiliser and food can be sourced elsewhere as well, albeit as at cost. For example Australian grain producers would be wanting a more stable and secure market than their Chinese one.

There is undoubtedly going to be a lot of effort going into finding alternative sources, but it is highly questionable how far they get. As @Ananda and I have discussed, there simply isn't a way to replace Russian energy resources. The best they can do is realignment and basically allow Russia to become the main supplier to the fastest growing energy market in the world, which would be doing them a favor, something I'm sure they wouldn't want to do.

Even if some of the effort does produce results, it's going to take 2-3 years at the earliest, and even then it's only partially going to cover the loss of Russian resources. So Europe would basically have to pay a lot more for a lot less, while putting a pause on their economy for 2 years, during which high energy prices dampen the blow to Russian revenues until they're able to switch to other markets. This does not sound like a sound strategy to me.

In any case European energy dependence on Russia works in both ways. Just as Russians can influence European decision making by threatening supplies so can Europeans influence Russian policy by threatening their revenues. By cutting this connection Europe losses their best (and perhaps only) tool for influencing Russian decision making.

Russia is changing its economic focus from the west to the east with the INSTC Is the INSTC Russia’s new economic escape route? | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera. India is a very large market and it makes good economic sense for Russia to break into it. The new route also has significant advantages. This along with an increase of trade with the PRC would replace a significant amount of its trade with the west. It is also pushing into Africa at the moment. Russian FM Lavrov has just undertaken a trip through Africa drumming up support for Russia in its war against Ukraine and its opposition to the sanctions that the West have put on it. Lavrov denigrates West’s stance towards Africa on Ethiopia visit | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera. Many African nations have historical ties with Russia going back to the decolonisation and independence struggles during the second half of the 20th Century. It is noted that many African nations have remained neutral in the Russo - Ukrainian War.

The CCP/PRC has been pushing for the last few years to have the yuan recognised as a benchmark trading currency on par with the US$ and so far this has been rejected internationally. It also wants to establish an international banking and financial clearance system similar to SWIFT trading in yuan instead of US$ by passing both SWIFT and the US$ to avoid US sanctions on using the US$ and SWIFT. Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and some other nations would probably take advantage of this system which would remove their vulnerability to US and western sanctions. If this does succeed then US and western sanctions against Russia become impotent.

By forcing this realignment they're basically laying the foundation for future Russia-China alliance (even if Russians have to accept being the lesser/junior partner). This in my opinion could be considered a geopolitical mistake of the century (although it's still early) and would embolden both China and Russia to be even more assertive and less willing to compromise.

In any case whoever does make European foreign policy would, I imagine, put Russia as the top priority, it is a country that can do the most damage, but can also provide necessary resources to feed Europe's development and keep them an economic powerhouse. Anything else would be detrimental as there are no other good options.

 

[Ananda]

Why Oil Prices Could Spike Next Week | OilPrice.com

Crude prices have rallied toward the end of the week, and prices could rise further if OPEC+ fails to reassure the market

oilprice.com

Isolation complication? US finds it's hard to shun Russia

The Biden administration likes to say Russia is isolated internationally because of its invasion of Ukraine.

apnews.com

The first article talk about commodities market assesment of still upward momentum for Oil Prices hikes. Second article talk on how the realites of global Russian isolation that's being taunted by US and EU, so far shown only by collective west.

This two article I put together, because it is related on why Russia still matter on Global order. Nature of Russia big control on some commodities market especially related to Energy and Food production, make it much less incentives for other nations to isolate Russia. Practically much of the other world community so far ignored what Washington, London, or Brussels call to isolate Russia.

best they can do is realignment and basically allow Russia to become the main supplier to the fastest growing energy market in the world, which would be doing them a favor, something I'm sure they wouldn't want to do.

Euro leadership bureacracy in Brussels seems believe Russia will not find other market as significant as Euro zone. Frankly speaking when I talk with some commodities traders on this, they just laugh cause seems some in Brussels forget where the highest energy consumption coming from. So perhaps what you have put come to slow realisation to some of those euro bureaucrats and politicians.

There's much talk in Green Energy from Brussels as way too cut energy dependencies with Russia. Again the most ambitious scenarios for Green Energy as significant fossil fuels replacements projected even by same Bureaucrats before the war shown next decadeas fastest. As I have ranting in this thread before, those greenies should be really regreting their move to cut nuclear power plant. Like it or not Frenchie right now is in better place compared to others in Euro Zone on reducing dependencies toward fossil fuels.

This is why many in western market before call the politicians on slowing down and think more on better target strategy, before conducting this wide range hastily prepared trade war. Well, market people for most of times considered as money grabing capaitalists. Only when realities of the market mechanism hit them hard, those politicians then begin to hear the market more.

 

[John Fedup]

Its going to be interesting to see the game develop as you put it, there are undoubtedly many issues that will have to be ironed out and many compromises made. In the end I still believe we will reach some kind of understanding, to go the other way would be detrimental to both parties and we are still in early stages of this conflict, so the bill hasn't arrived yet. Once it does, and its magnitude is revealed, there would be a lot more people willing to compromise on both sides.



There is undoubtedly going to be a lot of effort going into finding alternative sources, but it is highly questionable how far they get. As @Ananda and I have discussed, there simply isn't a way to replace Russian energy resources. The best they can do is realignment and basically allow Russia to become the main supplier to the fastest growing energy market in the world, which would be doing them a favor, something I'm sure they wouldn't want to do.

Even if some of the effort does produce results, it's going to take 2-3 years at the earliest, and even then it's only partially going to cover the loss of Russian resources. So Europe would basically have to pay a lot more for a lot less, while putting a pause on their economy for 2 years, during which high energy prices dampen the blow to Russian revenues until they're able to switch to other markets. This does not sound like a sound strategy to me.

In any case European energy dependence on Russia works in both ways. Just as Russians can influence European decision making by threatening supplies so can Europeans influence Russian policy by threatening their revenues. By cutting this connection Europe losses their best (and perhaps only) tool for influencing Russian decision making.



By forcing this realignment they're basically laying the foundation for future Russia-China alliance (even if Russians have to accept being the lesser/junior partner). This in my opinion could be considered a geopolitical mistake of the century (although it's still early) and would embolden both China and Russia to be even more assertive and less willing to compromise.

In any case whoever does make European foreign policy would, I imagine, put Russia as the top priority, it is a country that can do the most damage, but can also provide necessary resources to feed Europe's development and keep them an economic powerhouse. Anything else would be detrimental as there are no other good options.

There are no “quick” solutions for European energy needs but increased Arctic production by both the US and Canada together with new NG tankers could be a solution together with SMR, especially the latter which will a green solution. Hard to say how the Russian Chinese partnership will pan out. Short term, not good for the West, long term I don’t see Russia wanting to be China’s $itch. As China builds up its nuclear arsenal along with better and more numerous missiles, Russia may have to bend the knee or more likely bend over. The only help Putin would get from the West is a pair of knee pads.

 

[seaspear]

Something like the oaths of allegiance to Hitler that the Wehrmacht had to take from 1935 onwards?

Well Feuhrer does translate as leader no coincidence lol just some similarities

 

[kato]

Well Feuhrer does translate as leader no coincidence lol just some similarities

Translations don't apply, especially not when the medium language is one as linguistically limited as English.

The title that party LDPR is seeking for Putin is "Правитель" (Pravitel). This basically means "government leader" or "government functionary" (and has done so since at least Tsarist times). The closest linguistic analogue - not translation - in English would probably be "governor" in the sense of "one who governs". The compound noun правительство (pravitel'stvo) just means "government" in a completely neutral manner in regular speech. "The Canadian government" - "Kanady pravitel'stvo" and such.

However Pravitel as a solitary title for a person was last used by the anti-bolshevik governments of the Soviet Civil War, effectively as title of the rulers of the White states set up in Russian territory. That's the juicy part.

 

[STURM]

Well Feuhrer does translate as leader no coincidence lol just some similarities

Germans have a laugh when I ask them with a straight face whether the German word for ''pilot'' is ''Flugzeugfuhrer''.

 

[kato]

Next thing people will discover that titles like 最高領導人 or رهبر انقلاب exist.

 

[Feanor]

Translations don't apply, especially not when the medium language is one as linguistically limited as English.

The title that party LDPR is seeking for Putin is "Правитель" (Pravitel). This basically means "government leader" or "government functionary" (and has done so since at least Tsarist times). The closest linguistic analogue - not translation - in English would probably be "governor" in the sense of "one who governs". The compound noun правительство (pravitel'stvo) just means "government" in a completely neutral manner in regular speech. "The Canadian government" - "Kanady pravitel'stvo" and such.

However Pravitel as a solitary title for a person was last used by the anti-bolshevik governments of the Soviet Civil War, effectively as title of the rulers of the White states set up in Russian territory. That's the juicy part.

I think the best translation would be "ruler". Also the LDPR are... certain kind of political party. With Zhirinovsky gone, they've gone down an unfortunate road.

 

[kato]

I think the best translation would be "ruler". Also the LDPR are... certain kind of political party. With Zhirinovsky gone, they've gone down an unfortunate road.

In German media they use "Herrscher" to translate it for the current initiative, which is fairly neutral - although it also implies that that nation's people isn't the sovereign in its country.

And it's not really like the LDPR were um... "sane" under Zhirinovsky either.

 

[Feanor]

In German media they use "Herrscher" to translate it for the current initiative, which is fairly neutral - although it also implies that that nation's people isn't the sovereign in its country.

And it's not really like the LDPR were um... "sane" under Zhirinovsky either.

No, but he was a deliberate clown, especially in his younger days, with a healthy dose of self-awareness. Now they're just the far-right wing of United Russia.

 

[Friendly Stranger]

@Friendly Stranger If you think that the current regime in Russia is communist then you are very ill-informed. It is about as communist as Adolf Hitler was; in fact it's far closer to Hitler's Nazism than it is to any Marxist-Lenist ideology. The only thing that Putinism, for want of a better term, has in common with the Soviet Russian communist form of government, is its extensive use of security services to oppress the population, and restrictions on political, media, and personal freedoms to smother any form of opposition to the ruling clique.

We have rules here that we expect members to follow and politics is against the rules; we have little tolerance for it. The only exception that we have is when its discussed in relation to defence and defence procurement. We especially have zero tolerance for US politics because of its divisiveness and that is jumped on really quickly. This is an international defence thread and as such we have many nationalities active on here.

We don't appreciate blatant attempts at spreading anti Russian or anti Ukrainian material as you are doing with your posts. We have expectations of reasonable assessment and unbiased analysis. Yes it can be difficult, but nevertheless we are first and foremost a defence forum and we have banned posters for posting blatant propaganda before. Be advised that we have little tolerance for such activities.

I posted legit articles link 1 link 2. It's all the truth about the situation in Ukraine and in Canada.

TEXT DELETED - POLITICAL RANT.

Friendly Stranger permanently banned for posting of political posts after being warned not to by a Moderator. His answer to the guidance in this post and a subsequent post that another Moderator unapproved has shown disrespect for both the Forum rules and Moderators. We do not tolerate politics, especially political rants which was all that this poster posted.

Ngatimozart

 

[Ananda]

How Russian Oil Is Making Its Way From Europe To Asia | OilPrice.com

Despite sanctions, Russia has been sending its oil to Asia by using ship-to-ship transfers in international waters around Europe

oilprice.com

Ship to Ship transfer (STS) has been done by Iranian for some time due to trade embargoes, and now spikes on STS around Euro waters. It is no secreet that most refineries outside collective west now getting more crudes from western embargoes suppliers like Iran, Venezuella and now Russia to ger better margin. With continues momentum of high price hydrocarbon, those margin now significant enough to cover the rises of transports and insurances.

Either way, Russian find new market to compensate the losses in their more traditional market in Euro Zone. Their hydrocarbon export now clossing in toward pre Februari 2022 (pre invation) level. So how G7 try to hinder Russian hydrocarbon revenue? They are so far can't done that let alone doing Biden ambition to cap Russian hydrocarbon revenue.

 

[Vivendi]

Over the last seven months Russian exports to China has grown by 48%. A lot of this is oil and gas. However, Russian oil in particular is sold at discount these days. At the same time import from China has increased by only 5%, whereas import from Europe, US, UK, Canada, Korea, Japan has dropped substantially. China’s New Vassal | Foreign Affairs


In Russia Western technology will be replaced by Chinese. The renminbi will become the de facto reserve currency in Russia (already surpassing the Euro on trading on the Moscow stock exchange).

Russia is becoming a vassal state of China faster than I believed possible a few months ago. This will have huge implications for Russia of course, but also for Europe and the US. Europe in particular should be concerned about having a nuclear armed Chinese vassal at their borders.

Also, India and Vietnam should pay close attention, it should be disconcerting to them that their main weapons supplier is becoming a Chinese vassal.

What should Europe do? Sacrificing Ukraine is definitely not an option, so sanctions on Russia should not be lifted. On the contrary Europe should increase the pressure -- more sanctions, increased weapons supplies to Ukraine, more training of Ukrainian soldiers. At the same time Europe should dangle a carrot in front of Russia: "leave Ukraine and we will lift sanctions immediately". Russia would then still have a choice:

1. Autonomy (and no empire), or
2. Chinese vassal (still no empire).

 

[ngatimozart]

Over the last seven months Russian exports to China has grown by 48%. A lot of this is oil and gas. However, Russian oil in particular is sold at discount these days. At the same time import from China has increased by only 5%, whereas import from Europe, US, UK, Canada, Korea, Japan has dropped substantially. China’s New Vassal | Foreign Affairs


In Russia Western technology will be replaced by Chinese. The renminbi will become the de facto reserve currency in Russia (already surpassing the Euro on trading on the Moscow stock exchange).

Russia is becoming a vassal state of China faster than I believed possible a few months ago. This will have huge implications for Russia of course, but also for Europe and the US.

Also, India and Vietnam should pay close attention, it should be disconcerting to them that their main weapons supplier is becoming a Chinese vassal.

What should Europe do? Sacrificing Ukraine is definitely not an option, so sanctions on Russia should not be lifted. On the contrary Europe should increase the pressure -- more sanctions, increased weapons supplies to Ukraine, more training of Ukrainian soldiers. At the same time Europe should dangle a carrot in front of Russia: "leave Ukraine and we will lift sanctions immediately". Russia would then still have a choice:

1. Autonomy (and no empire), or
2. Chinese vassal (still no empire).

I wouldn't necessarily say that Russia will become a vassal of the PRC because Russia still has much that the PRC requires and there is the slight matter of 6,600 Russian nukes compared to 345 PRC nukes. They are like a sailor and a pub; an arrangement of mutual convenience, usually until one has closed or the other has worn out their welcome. There are also ongoing issues within the PRC economy and the CCP that may change things as well. The amount of CCP whinging, bluster and PLA reaction over Pelosi's visit to Taiwan speaks to a concerted campaign to whip up nationalist fervour within the PRC and divert the populations attention away from ongoing domestic problems that are steadily getting worse because of Xi's policies, especially the Zero Covid one, and the level of corruption within the CCP.

China punished more than 600,000 officials in 2021 amid Xi Jinping's clampdown on corruption and misconduct

Last week, the Communist Party's top disciplinary agency vowed to show "no mercy" to those who "try to build political gangs."

www.insider.com

How China's Massive Corruption Crackdown Snares Entrepreneurs Across The Country

Chinese officials boast their campaign against "evil" has busted over 50,000 supposed criminal organizations, but experts warn it has served another function: consolidating power.

www.npr.org

If war broke out between them, Russia can do something better than the PRC can; Russia has far more depth of territory that it can trade in order to gain time than the PRC can. The PLA logistics would be long and Russian roads and rail in the east aren't the best or that plentiful. The Russian rail gauge is unique as well.

 

[Vivendi]

I wouldn't necessarily say that Russia will become a vassal of the PRC because Russia still has much that the PRC requires and there is the slight matter of 6,600 Russian nukes compared to 345 PRC nukes. They are like a sailor and a pub; an arrangement of mutual convenience, usually until one has closed or the other has worn out their welcome. There are also ongoing issues within the PRC economy and the CCP that may change things as well. The amount of CCP whinging, bluster and PLA reaction over Pelosi's visit to Taiwan speaks to a concerted campaign to whip up nationalist fervour within the PRC and divert the populations attention away from ongoing domestic problems that are steadily getting worse because of Xi's policies, especially the Zero Covid one, and the level of corruption within the CCP.

China punished more than 600,000 officials in 2021 amid Xi Jinping's clampdown on corruption and misconduct

Last week, the Communist Party's top disciplinary agency vowed to show "no mercy" to those who "try to build political gangs."

www.insider.com

How China's Massive Corruption Crackdown Snares Entrepreneurs Across The Country

Chinese officials boast their campaign against "evil" has busted over 50,000 supposed criminal organizations, but experts warn it has served another function: consolidating power.

www.npr.org

If war broke out between them, Russia can do something better than the PRC can; Russia has far more depth of territory that it can trade in order to gain time than the PRC can. The PLA logistics would be long and Russian roads and rail in the east aren't the best or that plentiful. The Russian rail gauge is unique as well.

It's true that Russia has substantial nuclear capabilities (although I question what their real nuclear capabilities are -- as the war in Ukraine has shown, real Russian military capabilities may be very different from those "on paper"). China is lagging but is rapidly expanding their nuclear capabilities. I believe China already has enough nukes as well as capabilities to deliver them, to create a situation sufficiently close to MAD to deter a first move, making a full scale war (that rapidly could escalate to nuclear exchange) something that both parties want to avoid.

It's also true that China is struggling at the moment. However they still have a huge economy, and they also have a lot of the technology that Russia cannot buy from "the West" anymore. Russia is not in a situation to say no to Chinese tech, providing China with increased control over e.g., Russian cyber infrastructure. Russian telecoms giant MegaFon eyes Chinese 5G equipment after Western suppliers pull out amid war in Ukraine | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)

"Vassal state" is perhaps too strong a word, but Chinese influence over Russia is bound to increase significantly both economically and technologically. Both are corrupt struggling economies however I still think China will be able to dominate Russia more and more. After becoming the pariah of "the West", what other options do Russia have?

 

[Ananda]

wouldn't necessarily say that Russia will become a vassal of the PRC because Russia still has much that the PRC requires and there is the slight matter of 6,600 Russian nukes compared to 345 PRC nukes. They are like a sailor and a pub; an arrangement of mutual convenience, usually until one has closed or the other has worn out their welcome.

Agree on the situation that Russia and Chinese relationship will increase significantly because collective west push them together. Vassal relationship will not happen, because if what Russia and China done in their relationship is more equal footings. This is relatively compared to US dominations to other collective west. However non US collective west will be very offended if their relationship toward US being talk as Vassal and Master relationship, even tough their dependency to US far bigger then Russia to China.

India's Russian revolution in oil: Why refiners are buying more Urals crude

Refiners have jumped on to the bandwagon of opportunistic buying of heavily discounted Urals crude, which could, ironically, make the country Europe's refining hub

www.business-standard.com

Besides Russia also balancing their relationship on oil business so far with India. It is business no matter what Western analysts call it. Doesn't mean India will become Russian master anytime soon.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Russian can practically afford to undercut even middle east oil at this moment, cause many of those oil are coming from their mature wells. Not from new wells that they are now working in Artic Circles. Mature wells means already reached economics efficiency costs, which (I have put in this thread before) able to run at USD 20 per barrel costs.

Cutting 30% discount from the market means Russian can still gain healthy margin. Can Middle East especially Saudi's fight Russian price ? off course they can. However why should they ? They don't have incentive to do it, as collective west will pay their Hydrocarbon on high market price to compensate Russian ones they are trying to reduce.

China will going to have advantage in Capital and some tech especially semiconductor that Russia will need (for some time in future). However asside from commodities reserve that Russia had in much more abundance then China, Russia still hold some advantage over China on several key tech like Aerospace (even tough China catching it up fast), as example.

Barometer for that can be seen on CR929 wide bodies airliner project. Russia and China already has their own regional and narrow bodies airliner each. This CR929 can be barometer if they can work it out as Airbus alternative. Both sides egos still become potential problem right now, however not much different then French and German egos on Aerospace projects.

In the end any deviation on their relationship now being getting rid off, thanks to collective west pressure toward both of them. So it's Western fantasy I believe to think they're going to deviate from each other now days. Few months ago probably, but now they need each other against collective west. They are probably closer to each other, more then ever (even during Stalin domineering position in communist world in the 50's).

 

[Vivendi]

However non US collective west will be very offended if their relationship toward US being talk as Vassal and Master relationship, even tough their dependency to US far bigger then Russia to China.

Other countries may have other experiences but Norway has during and after WW2 highly valued the strong alliance and friendship with the US. We share values like democracy, press freedom and rules based system. When Bush made the huge mistake of invading Iraq he asked for Norwegian support. Norway declined to participate. This was accepted by the US, and did not hurt the relationship between the US and Norway.

As you know, NATO is the main vessel for ensuring security in Europe and North America. NATO is based on democratic values, and countries, even the smallest, has veto rights within NATO. No doubt this sometimes frustrates what you call the "Master", but the US has remained in NATO in spite of this, and now NATO looks stronger than ever. Countries vote with their feet. Nobody forced Sweden and Finland to join the club, they looked at the pros and cons and decided that the pros clearly outweighs the cons.

As long as the US remains a democratic and free country I am convinced other Western countries will value and appreciate the alliance with the US, no matter how you prefer to describe it. Even the stubborn French value their strong alliance with the US.

 

[Ananda]

Well it is much unequal footing relationship then Russia and Chinese future relationship that you call vassal relationship. You can talk about democratic ideals etc, doesn't change it is inequalities on relationship within collective west.

US in the end even tough will take process and time, will going to push much of their will, especially on Geopolitical issue toward overall collective west grouping.

China and Russia are work with different agenda ideals toward each other. Thus it might be not within Western judgemental ideals, but who say it won't work for their mutual benefit.

 

[Vivendi]

Well it is much unequal footing relationship then Russia and Chinese future relationship that you call vassal relationship. You can talk about democratic ideals etc, doesn't change it is inequalities on relationship within collective west.

US in the end even tough will take process and time, will going to push much of their will, especially on Geopolitical issue toward overall collective west grouping.

Consider the relationship between Norway and China then. China punished Norway (as a country) severely after a small independent group of Norwegian gave the Nobel peace price to a Chinese dissident. The Norwegian government (right or wrong) in the end caved and made major concessions to have China lift sanctions. I cannot imagine a similar situation where the US would treat Norway like that.

The relationship between the US and Norway on the one hand, and China and Norway on the other, are like night and day. A relationship is governed by much more than the relative size of the two parties.