Russia - General Discussion.

Rock the kasbah said:

Russian Preparations for Possible Large Scale Attack on Ukraine — Conflict Intelligence Team

citeam.org citeam.org

I found this link in an article at defence one

www.defenseone.com

Today's D Brief: US troops leave Ukraine; WH's warning; Monitors pull out of E. Ukraine; Lockheed's stepback; And a bit more.

www.defenseone.com www.defenseone.com

It's getting awfully tight over there, the world does not need a disgruntled uni student with a gun ( vis a vis WW1 ) right now
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This is very interesting, since if you go to the main website citeam.org, this article doesn't appear, yet it's clearly part of the website. I'm glad to see they've gone back to publishing large pieces. They've done good OSINT work in the past, and hopefully will do so again.
 
Norwegian Foreign Minister and Defence Minister said today that they believe there is a risk Russia may invade Ukraine very soon. As a response, Norway is sending additional 50-60 soldiers to Lithuania, as part of a NATO dispatchment. Norwegian soldiers will not be sent to Ukraine, since Ukraine is not a NATO member.

They also make it clear that they have not increased military readiness in the far North.

Ukraina-krisen: Norge sender soldater til Litauen – NRK Urix – Utenriksnyheter og -dokumentarer

My general comment: 50-60 soldiers is rather insignificant, so this is more about showing solidarity, and sending signals to NATO member Lithuania, but also to Russia, about NATO unity and resolve.

OT: It is sad to see that the Norwegian army is so reduced that this is what we can offer at this stage. Norway is of course not the only country in Europe being in such a dire situation. Although there are many important differences between NATO countries and non-aligned Finland, I suspect we could still learn a thing or two from Finland when it comes to building a credible defense without going bankrupt!
 
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Vivendi said:
My general comment: 50-60 soldiers is rather insignificant, so this is more about showing solidarity, and sending signals to NATO member Lithuania, but also to Russia, about NATO unity and resolve.
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Indeed it's political, to demonstrate resolve and solidarity. The Russians however need no convincing about the fact that NATO will defend its territory if required. .
 
cdxbow said:
An interesting view Has Putin united Europe? | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au) Most of Mr Putin's posturing of late has seemed counter productive, certainly in the view of this writer. Similar to the push back against the PRC as it notched up it's belligerence. Threatening your neighbours has a price.
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Yep and the other thing it's doing is uniting Ukrainians. They all mightn't like the current govt and some have Russian as their first language, but they are Ukrainian first and foremost and are taking up arms to defend the country against Putin and Russia.

Ukrainians Find Common Purpose in Opposing Russia - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
 
cdxbow said:
Threatening your neighbours has a price.
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It also has benefits if done properly; if one knows how far to push; if part of a long term coordinated plan/strategy and if it leads to the intended results.

Putin plays the long game. He has patience; knows fully well the deep divisions within NATO and understands his enemies better than they do him.
I really doubt if anything which has happened so far has not gone according to his original plan.

Like everyone here I have no idea how all this will eventually play out but Putin has said he does not want war; his Foreign Minster has urged him to continue with diplomacy and some Russian troops have pulled back. During a joint conference with Putin the German Chancellor spoke of certain Russian demands appearing to be reasonable and worthy of further discussion. This is diplomacy at work.

On the other hand Biden has just spoken about the high death toll in the Ukraine if Russia invades and about consequences for Russia. same thing with other NATO/Western leaders who keep saying the same thing over and over and over again.; something the Russians have heard multiple times and something they are already very aware off.
 
For those who missed, there was a speech from Biden regarding the situation. Among all the things mentioned earlier, he stated that the sanctions they have prepared will also cost US - the energy prices will rise.
I wonder whether this message is actually addressed to US citizens or to Putin (we will hit your gas / oil industry hard and we are ready to pay).

 
denix56 said:
I wonder whether this message is actually addressed to US citizens or to Putin (we will hit your gas / oil industry hard and we are ready to pay).
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It's probably addressed to the U.S. voter. Putin has heard the same message over and over again and he knows fully the consequences of an invasion of the Ukraine.
 
Media reports of Ukrainian rebel accusations of Ukrainian government forces mortar attacks against the rebel forces. Ukraine rebels accuse govt forces of mortar attacks - report | Reuters A Kiwi reporter in a live cross from Kiev to the Newshub 6pm (NZDT - GMT / UTC+13) News bulletin said that in the last half hour she had heard reports of the claims. She went on to say that if the reports of the claims are true then it's what the UK / US call a false flag operation where Putin has fired on his own forces and will be the excuse used for an invasion of the Ukraine. She went on to say that it was the same method and excuse used in Georgia in 2008.

EDIT: Live cross during Newshub 6pm (NZDT - GMT / UTC+13) News bulletin, TV3 NZ 17/2/2022.

 
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ngatimozart said:
Media reports of Ukrainian rebel accusations of Ukrainian government forces mortar attacks against the rebel forces. Ukraine rebels accuse govt forces of mortar attacks - report | Reuters A Kiwi reporter in a live cross from Kiev to the Newshub 6pm (NZDT - GMT / UTC+13) News bulletin said that in the last half hour she had heard reports of the claims. She went on to say that if the reports of the claims are true then it's what the UK / US call a false flag operation where Putin has fired on his own forces and will be the excuse used for an invasion of the Ukraine. She went on to say that it was the same method and excuse used in Georgia in 2008.
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The last part makes me suspect the entire story. There was no "excuse" in Georgia. Saakashvili launched a full on attack on South Ossetia that went on for days before Russia intervened. The whole situation reached a fever pitch that ended in the massive artillery bombardment of Tshinval, in which ~1500 of the towns ~30 000 residents lost their lives. The Russian peacekeeping compound was attacked directly by Georgian troops. By the time Russian moved in, most of Tshinval was under Georgian control.

And while we're at it, mortar attacks from government forces (and from rebel forces) and artillery exchanges, occur all the time. Reports of this are not out of the ordinary and in no way amount to a sufficient excuse for an attack.

EDIT: There appears to be some disagreement between NATO and Hungary regarding deploying NATO forces to Hungary. Hungary doesn't want them but NATO says they're deploying anyway.
 
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Feanor said:
The last part makes me suspect the entire story. There was no "excuse" in Georgia. Saakashvili launched a full on attack on South Ossetia that went on for days before Russia intervened. The whole situation reached a fever pitch that ended in the massive artillery bombardment of Tshinval, in which ~1500 of the towns ~30 000 residents lost their lives. The Russian peacekeeping compound was attacked directly by Georgian troops. By the time Russian moved in, most of Tshinval was under Georgian control.
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The Russians were slow in intervening because they were unprepared according to this article: The August War, Ten Years On: A Retrospective on the Russo-Georgian War - War on the Rocks Saakashvili’s decision to open hostilities beat Putin who had intended to invade and undertake a spot of regime changing later. Saakashvili’s gambit failed spectacularly and now he's a wanted man in his own country, had his Ukrainian citizenship revoked and kicked out of there and moved to Poland. Most recently he is in prison in Georgia, with his lawyers in Court in Tbilisi arguing for a personal physician and an "empathy" counsellor to be allowed to visit him in the prison. The judge ordered the penitentiary to adequately treat Mikheil Saakashvili, but did not ask for the admission of the personal physician and the "Empathy" council (mtavari.tv) .
And while we're at it, mortar attacks from government forces (and from rebel forces) and artillery exchanges, occur all the time. Reports of this are not out of the ordinary and in no way amount to a sufficient excuse for an attack.

EDIT: There appears to be some disagreement between NATO and Hungary regarding deploying NATO forces to Hungary. Hungary doesn't want them but NATO says they're deploying anyway.
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Orban could be sulking at the moment. The European Court of Justice has denied Hungary and Poland's appeal against the EU sanctions imposed against them because of their instituting laws that are in conflict with basic EU human rights law. EU top court dismisses Hungary-Poland rule-of-law challenge | News | DW | 16.02.2022. He will not be a happy authoritarian dictator type chappy.
 
Interesting comments by this individual. Irrespective what one's personal opinions are on this crisis I believe there is substance in what he said. The reasons which led to the present crisis didn't occur overnight; it was a combination of things which accumulated; way before troubles in 2014 over the Crimea and 2008 over Georgia.

www.aljazeera.com

Latest Ukraine updates: US warns Russia preparing for invasion

Ukraine news from February 17: Russian deputy foreign minister says claims it plans to invade are 'baseless'.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com

Glenn Diesen, a professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway and editor at the Russia in Global Affairs journal, says Russia will keep the “military pressure high” amid the crisis despite announcing a pullback of some forces.

“This is the only reason there is diplomacy to begin with,” Diesen told Al Jazeera from Oslo.

“Keep in mind that Russia has attempted [to forge] a mutually acceptable pan-European security agreement for the past 30 years, but its demands for security guarantees have … been ignored by the West simply because Russia was too weak and NATO could act unilaterally in Europe.

“So because diplomacy must be backed by military pressure, we can expect that the Russian military will scale back a little bit but the pressure will nonetheless be maintained so diplomacy can continue.”
 
STURM said:
Glenn Diesen, a professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway and editor at the Russia in Global Affairs journal, says Russia will keep the “military pressure high” amid the crisis despite announcing a pullback of some forces.

“This is the only reason there is diplomacy to begin with,” Diesen told Al Jazeera from Oslo.

“Keep in mind that Russia has attempted [to forge] a mutually acceptable pan-European security agreement for the past 30 years, but its demands for security guarantees have … been ignored by the West simply because Russia was too weak and NATO could act unilaterally in Europe.

“So because diplomacy must be backed by military pressure, we can expect that the Russian military will scale back a little bit but the pressure will nonetheless be maintained so diplomacy can continue.”
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Glenn Diesen is extremely controversial in Norway, many consider him to be highly biased and representing Russian interests.

TV 2 has spoken to a number of academics and Russian experts in Norway and Sweden, who are shocked that Professor Diesen contributes on what they believe is a Russian propaganda platform and about the content of his articles. Among these is Aage Borchgrevink, who is an adviser to the Norwegian Helsinki Committee. He believes Diesen presents a "sauce of erroneous claims that is very close to the main lines of what we associate with Russian propaganda". The award-winning Swedish journalist and editor Patrik Oksanen, for his part, claims that Diesen has lost its scientific relevance. FREQUENT GUEST A review by TV 2 shows that Diesen has written at least 15 articles for RT's website in the last nine months. In addition, he is a frequent guest on the channel's debate programs.
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Sier og skriver det Russland helst vil høre – Norges Forsvarsforening (forsvarsforeningen.no)

A well known and highly respected expert on Russia, Kjell Dragnes commented on an op-ed written by Diesen and Arne Treholt (Treholt was in 1985 convicted to 20 years in prison for spying for Russia):
Although they dutifully write: "We will not uncritically accept Russian views", that is exactly what they are doing. And that with very special arguments, which were taken straight out of the propaganda channel Russia Today or a handbook for the web brigades or Russian influencers in troll factories - innocently called "Internet Research Agency".
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Russland med front mot Norge | Kjell Dragnes (aftenposten.no)

I notice that once more, you quote a source that many people consider highly controversial and highly biased. In this case a person writing extensively for RT.
 
That may be so but are you suggesting that everything he said was totally inaccurate? I don't care much forr RT and I'm not pro Russian anymore than I'm pro NATO but quite obviously Russia is driven to act because of a series of events and actions over the past few decades which it perceived are contrary to its strategic interests. Right or wrong that has led to where we today ...

Also, if I posted excerpts from a pro NATO writer or someone who is biased would you see fit to point this out to me?
 
STURM said:
That may be so but are you suggesting that everything he said was totally inaccurate?
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Good propaganda is a mix of truth, half-truth and outright lies. Of course not everything by Diesen or other RT writers is totally inaccurate. Instead of reading RT and trying to figure out what is truth, what is half-truth and what is a lie, I prefer to avoid RT and by implication, also people writing extensively for RT.

Also, if I posted excerpts from a pro NATO writer or someone who is biased would you see fit to point this out to me?
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I think that perhaps the closest to RT in for instance the US, could be Fox News. If I noticed that you posted an op-ed from Fox News then yes I would make a comment about it.
 
ngatimozart said:
The Russians were slow in intervening because they were unprepared according to this article: The August War, Ten Years On: A Retrospective on the Russo-Georgian War - War on the Rocks Saakashvili’s decision to open hostilities beat Putin who had intended to invade and undertake a spot of regime changing later. Saakashvili’s gambit failed spectacularly and now he's a wanted man in his own country, had his Ukrainian citizenship revoked and kicked out of there and moved to Poland. Most recently he is in prison in Georgia, with his lawyers in Court in Tbilisi arguing for a personal physician and an "empathy" counsellor to be allowed to visit him in the prison. The judge ordered the penitentiary to adequately treat Mikheil Saakashvili, but did not ask for the admission of the personal physician and the "Empathy" council (mtavari.tv) .
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Other then repeated claims, I don't see any evidence in there that Putin intended to invade Georgia in general. I suspect that, had Georgia not moved against South Ossetia, there would be no Russian troops entering the region. Intent is notoriously hard to prove, but what few objective indicators exist, in this scenario, point in the opposite directions. The author himself notes that Russian troops were returning to garrisons following Caucus-2008 exercises. That doesn't indicate a preparation for invasion, provoked or otherwise. I think regime change was probably being considered as Russian troops took Gori, but it appears that diplomatic efforts prevented this. If the goal was regime change from the beginning, it's unclear why this would have worked.
 
Vivendi said:
If I noticed that you posted an op-ed from Fox News then yes I would make a comment about it.
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No offence but that would be silly as it depends entirely on the actual contents. I usually wouldn'tt touch Fox News with a barge pole, especially when it comes to Middle East coverage but this doesn't mean that everything it writes is lacking in substance and facts.
 
STURM said:
No offence but that would be silly as it depends entirely on the actual contents. I usually wouldn'tt touch Fox News with a barge pole, especially when it comes to Middle East coverage but this doesn't mean that everything it writes is lacking in substance and facts.
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I prefer to say "lazy" instead of "silly". Processing an op-ed from Fox News or RT would require me to examine the basic assumptions, logical constructs, and in general think a lot more than what I normally do, and that requires quite a lot of energy.
You could of course argue that being so lazy is silly, and I will not argue against that (perhaps because I am too lazy? :))
 
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