Russia - General Discussion.

[denix56]

Who has the most to lose by getting caught doing this? Don’t think Russia would be very high on the list so maybe Russia is suspect number one. Frankly it doesn’t seem to be in anyone’s interest but maybe I’m missing something.

I have read that there is a possible gain for Russia. They have blamed Siemens for the badly repaired turbines calling it a cause of the reduced amount of supplied gas. In court Siemens will definitely beat Russia resulting in the multibillion suits against Gazprom for breaking contracts and damage to the reputation of Siemens (and maybe something else).

The accident with the pipes probably makes this dispute useless as they can’t start sending gas when there is a hole.

 

[John Fedup]

In my opinion it's in the interests of the US. Mutual trade is the biggest argument for the EU to be willing to mend fences with Russia. Also the US sells LNG and has been pushing for US LNG as an alternative to Russian pipelines for quite some time. The US would benefit from North Stream 1&2 being taken off the table permanently or at least semi-permanently.

Maybe but does the US have the NG terminal capacity
to export what the EU needs? The US would have to contract a NG tanker fleet as well.

 

[Feanor]

All discussion of the recent explosions on the North Stream pipelines belongs in this thread. However, tread carefully. This is still a defense forum and this conversation needs to be focused around the geostrategic issues, not a pure political discussion. The conversation needs to be focused on facts, and a clear distinction should be made between facts and opinions.

 

[Feanor]

Maybe but does the US have the NG terminal capacity
to export what the EU needs? The US would have to contract a NG tanker fleet as well.

I'd like to elaborate my stance on this.

I think that in principle the US benefits from this situation. Part of it is an economic benefit in the form of the ability to take an additional portion of the European market. Is the US ready to do this? I don't know. The other part is the political benefit. Ultimately an economic relationship between Russia and the EU is mutually beneficial, arguably more beneficial for Russia then the EU. Driving them further apart is politically beneficial and puts Russia into a significantly worse position in the medium term. With winter and fuel shortages the temptation to reopen trade with Russia will be strong. If it can't be done for objective reasons that helps. If you can blame Russia for it on top of everything, it would be even better.

However... there is no evidence. In principle, based on the overall behavior of the actors, and the situation so far, I think Russia is the likeliest suspect here. Russia even has a dedicated structure in the military would be perfect for carrying out an attack like this (GUGI). But again, no evidence so far. This just happened, so evidence is pending and I suspect more information will surface. I'm suspending judgement on who is responsible. But regardless of responsibility, I think the US benefits.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Who has the most to lose by getting caught doing this? Don’t think Russia would be very high on the list so maybe Russia is suspect number one. Frankly it doesn’t seem to be in anyone’s interest but maybe I’m missing something.

The "who has most to win/lose from X?" is an important question but not always applicable - not even governments should be expected to act entirely logically or for their actual best interests, at all times.
Who has the most to lose from a Russian-Ukrainian war? Russia and Ukraine. Who has the most to win from it? Neither of them.

Someone elsewhere noted the sabotage was at a depth of 70m, and this makes it easily accessible to civilian divers.
I'm raising the possibility of disgruntled Europeans or a false flag by rogue Russian assets to create a "This is it. They crossed the line!" moment.
I put $5 on each option.
I've seen speculations it's Europeans, the USA, and even Iran and North Korea.


Back on topic, on things that are far less mysterious. JPost (OSINT picked it up and spread it) forwarded a Ukrainian report on Russia's alleged targeting of Uman with 10 Iranian drones that were reportedly shot down by Ukraine.
Uman is a significant pilgrimage site for orthodox Jews, particularly during holidays like the Jewish new year (Rosh Hashanah) which was only a few days ago. Orthodox Jews of certain sects are known to disregard orders of governments wherever they are, placing religious rituals first as part of their world view (as long as there is conflict between the two), so naturally they disregarded Ukrainian calls to avoid pilgrimage during the war.

One quite reliable way for me to gauge the truthfulness of reports regarding Israeli foreign policy is how extensively they are covered in Israeli media. For example strikes in Syria are sometimes truly done by Israel, sometimes not, and usually when it's not Israel, the reports are mysteriously lacking and usually very far in the back pages.
Same goes here. Report only exists in one news site I found and even there overshadowed by local news.
Take it as you wish.
BUT, if it was true, then Russia would essentially be giving up yet another one of its pressure points on Israel, which still leaves it at an advantage but a relatively small one now.
Source:

Russia aims Iranian made drones at hasidic Jews in Uman - report

Ukraine's military has reportedly shot down more than ten drones all aimed in the direction of Uman, where hasidic Jews are celebrating Rosh Hashanah.

www.jpost.com

Israel further escalates tensions with Russia following the annexation vote with a condemnation of it and announcement it will not recognize any changes of territory, in what may be a retaliation for drafting Jewish citizens of Russia after blocking their escape from the country.
Although Israel may not be at liberty to donate weapons worth billions of dollars to Ukraine due to its own preparations for what is described as the most extensive threat Israel has faced in decades, and in some aspects even since its foundation, it can, and is speculated to, provide intelligence to Ukraine on Iranian drones - what makes the tick, and what might trigger them not ticking quite so well anymore.
Source:

Israel rejects annexation votes in occupied Ukraine as Russian proxies claim victory

Jerusalem says it backs Ukraine's territorial integrity while Moscow officials assert massive support in captured lands for joining Russia; West has denounced 'sham' votes

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[swerve]

The gas leaks are far from Russian control teritories but close to Polish ones.

About 250 km from Kaliningrad. No distance at all for a Russian submarine.

Right, Russia need to send some submarine for that. Other can swim to those pipes. Anything is possible, "nonsense" is only for those who think everything is always Russian fault.

Swim? Carrying all the gear (including explosives) needed, dive to the pipeline, plant the explosives, then swim back. How many people can swim 100km & do all that half-way? And that's from Bornholm: from Poland it'd be a 200 km round trip. Possible? Hardly.

Anything is possible, "nonsense" is only for those who think everynothing is always Russian fault.

FTFY

 

[seaspear]

The pipeline is according to Danish energy minister Dan Jorgenson where the ruptures occurred were at a depth 70 to 90 meters below sea level ,it might be interesting for when a closeup inspection can be done for the determination of cause

 

[Ananda]

Swim? Carrying all the gear (including explosives) needed, dive to the pipeline, plant the explosives, then swim back. How many people can swim 100km & do all that half-way? And that's from Bornholm: from Poland it'd be a 200 km round trip. Possible? Hardly.

Can you understand sarcastic remark ? The point is there are others that can be have more benefits toward the demise of nordstream, that have better access to that area.

FTFY

Well, personally I don't close my mind toward potential Russian involvement toward sabotaging Nordstream line. However I also shown the fact for Russia the Nordsteam still beneficial potentially.

Nor like some that jump the wagon on blaming everything to Russia, even without solid evidence yet.

 

[swerve]

But you're going way over the top in suggesting that Poland might blow holes in a 49% W. European-owned pipeline in the Baltic, causing a hazard to shipping. Whatever the failings of its government (& it has many) Poland is not a gangster state. But Russia is.

 

[Ananda]

you're going way over the top in suggesting that Poland might blow holes in a 49% W. European-owned pipeline in the Baltic, causing a hazard to shipping.

Why ? I Just put what FT shown that Poland has benefits if Nordstream line demises, as they are working on other competing lines.

This just shown rediculous accusition for some, can make sense to others. As this moments no solid effidence blaming one side to others. This means everyones can be a suspects. So perhaps the accusations or suggestion of blame toward Russia is also over the top at this moment.

Again no solid effidence now, just simply bias blaming games at this moments. Again anyone can still be a suspect at this moment. "If" this turn out to be real sabotage.

 

[STURM]

When taking into consideration all this talk of a very desperate Putin who is allegedly considering a nuclear option; this act of sabotage [if indeed it is sabotage] is a very worrying development. Is this a sign of things to come? Will we reach a stage where nukes start flying?

At least during the Cold War there was dialogue; assurances were given and compromises were made - diplomacy was at work.

 

[STURM]

About 250 km from Kaliningrad. No distance at all for a Russian submarine.

Not far at all for a sub carrying a mini sub but are there subs based at Kaliningrad? What find intriguing was the mention from Norway if the presence of UASs not too long ago.

 

[SolarWind]

As I cannot imagine any sane person in their right mind wanting to engage in industrial terrorism, this seems likely Kremlin's demonstration of capability and resolve for those who will discern, an attempt to sow discord within NATO for those who won't and is within their asynchronous warfare ideas.

 

[koxinga]

Let's list the facts:

1) two events consistent with explosions detected by seismic sensors on Monday, 26 Sep by Swedish National Seismic Network (SNSN).
a) 2:03 a.m local time
b) 7:04 p.m local time

Swedish Seismologists Detected Explosions In The Area Close To Nord Stream Pipelines | اخبار 360 | 2022

The Swedish National Seismic Network (SNSN) said Tuesday that it detected two explosions on Monday near the area of the Nord Stream pipelines.

www.news360.dk

2) three leaks were subsequently detected, two along Nord Stream 1 and one on Nord Stream 2

Scandinavian seismic stations register explosions near pipelines, raising fears of sabotage

A series of unusual leaks on two natural gas pipelines running from Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany have triggered concerns about sabotage.

www.pbs.org

Any definitive evidence pointing to one party? I mean really definitive, like the explosive used can be proven by chemical analysis that it belongs to one party and is planted by said party. No, for now.

Beyond that, we are just playing whodunit based on who is likely to gain or lose.

Speculations
Russia (state directed), Russia (non-state, private actors), non Russian (false flag).
Technical errors -> low chance, due to the near simultaneous timing and gas pipelines don't randomly exploded.

 

[Vivendi]

US security alert announced yesterday, advising US citiziens to leave Russia immediately: Embassy urges U.S. citizens to leave Russia immediately (ny1.com)

Bulgaria, Poland, Estonia, Romania advise their citizens to leave Russia immediately:

Bulgarian Foreign Ministry Advises Against Travel to Russia & Calls on Bulgarian Citizens to Return Immediately - SchengenVisaInfo.com
Bulgaria, Poland, Estonia advise citizens get out Russia as soon (euroweeklynews.com)
Romania reiterates advice for citizens to avoid travel to Russia | Reuters

Latvia declares state of emergency in border regions:
Latvia declares state of emergency in regions bordering Russia - Baltic News Network - News from Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia (bnn-news.com)

 

[InterestedParty]

Since the pipelines appear to be adjacent at certain points, according to the above map, wouldn't it make more sense to sabotage them there, rather than where they are furthest apart?

 

[seaspear]

If a type of explosive was found to have been used and identified proving a state had exclusive use of such may also have to be proved

 

[kato]

The gas leaks are far from Russian control teritories but close to Polish ones.

The leaks are nowhere near Polish territorial waters. They occured in international waters within the Danish EEZ east of the island of Bornholm. Hence also why the situation on-site is handled by the Danish Armed Forces.

Russia has plenty of submarines that can travel from Russian territory to the region -- actually Russian subs regularly visit this region.

Russia barely has any operational submarines in the Baltic Sea at all (one, usually) - and any subs visiting from other Fleets have to pass through the Belt and are therefore subsequently under close surveillance for the remainder of their stay in the Baltic.

In addition it should be noted that
a) Virtually the entire Baltic Sea is covered by coordinated fixed sonar networks of multiple militaries.
b) NATO, since February, has standing patrols (ships) both in the immediate area as well as just outside any Russian territorial waters in the Baltic Sea.

Russia could have set up a way to destroy the pipelines when they were laid down.

Actually, none of the pipelines were built, assembled or laid in/by Russia. As in there was little opportunity to install any such devices. One of the nine ships involved in the laying was operated by a Russian company (the rest by Swiss and Italian companies), and that's the entire Russian involvement in the laying of those pipelines. Offhand that was for a sector south of Finland, the ship was also only capable of shallow water laying anyway.

Hypothetically the US could have done this to make it harder for a desperate Europe to turn back to Russian gas this winter.

If we speak hypothetically: I can think of at least two more countries outside Europe with sufficient capability for such an operation and a possible interest in keeping the European gas market in turmoil, both of which have also fairly recently deployed units of their navies into the Baltic Sea.

 

[Feanor]

The leaks are nowhere near Polish territorial waters. They occured in international waters within the Danish EEZ east of the island of Bornholm. Hence also why the situation on-site is handled by the Danish Armed Forces.


Russia barely has any operational submarines in the Baltic Sea at all (one, usually) - and any subs visiting from other Fleets have to pass through the Belt and are therefore subsequently under close surveillance for the remainder of their stay in the Baltic.

In addition it should be noted that
a) Virtually the entire Baltic Sea is covered by coordinated fixed sonar networks of multiple militaries.
b) NATO, since February, has standing patrols (ships) both in the immediate area as well as just outside any Russian territorial waters in the Baltic Sea.


Actually, none of the pipelines were built, assembled or laid in/by Russia. As in there was little opportunity to install any such devices. One of the nine ships involved in the laying was operated by a Russian company (the rest by Swiss and Italian companies), and that's the entire Russian involvement in the laying of those pipelines. Offhand that was for a sector south of Finland, the ship was also only capable of shallow water laying anyway.

Thank you for correcting. I was not aware of this.

If we speak hypothetically: I can think of at least two more countries outside Europe with sufficient capability for such an operation and a possible interest in keeping the European gas market in turmoil, both of which have also fairly recently deployed units of their navies into the Baltic Sea.

Speaking of course hypothetically (wouldn't want to thank anyone in my twitter for doing this... ) who are the other two countries with sufficient capabilities?

 

[kato]

Speaking of course hypothetically who are the other two countries with sufficient capabilities?

Speaking purely in the sense of capacity for and proficiency with specialized operations, having the nominal capability to properly use and deploy UUVs within those, being notionally able to build the required connections in theater to conduct such an operation clandestinely with a fairly good chance of success, and having had the opportunity to produce recent detailed imagery of the seabed in the area.

Outside the USA for non-European actors that would be China and Iran.