This French comentator in my opinion talk more realistically on how far Western economics sactions will bite Russia. So far the current sanctions only revive Russia own domestic consumptive products Industry. As Financial people I agree with his assesment there are ways for Russia to be still in International trade payment ecosystem, even SWIFT being cut out from them. It will cost them (just like it cost Iran), but there's ways to circumstate SWIFT ecosystem (thus USD dominated financial market system).
The Biden administration is reportedly considering sanctions that would strike at the heart of Russia's technology sector, hurting the production of phones, weapons and more.
Russia main foreign trade income coming from Oil and Gas (Energy), mineral commodities, and Defense Equipment. The last one that need access toward international semiconductors market. We know US have big leverage on that considering the biggest producers are their Asian allies (Taiwan and ROK), also because US companies still control considerable R&D and patents for latest semicunductors.
However China also understand this, thus they are now trying the hardest to be more self reliance on semiconductors. Also China hold largest supply on rare earth materials (which Russia also hold large reserve on that). Thus in long run both China and Russia can help each other on that.
All of this can push for two competing economics blocks in Global economy, and I can tell you many outside West actually find the idea is tolarable. This back to the question, if Russia can live without economic incentives from West, what kind of leverage thus West going to have against Russia ?
In the end, West and Russia have to answer, how much Ukraine really worth. I still see Russia if they can not regain their leverage with overall Ukraine, perhaps Eastern Ukraine control by friendlier to Russia politicians will be enough. After all Eastern Ukraine with their black sea coast and Industrial center are probably more worthed for Russia then Western and Central Ukraine. Perhaps they will call it Republic of UkroRuss.
West already open the Pandora box by allowing carving ex Yugoslavia by enthic lines. Moscow seems to think, I'll do the same in Ukraine.