Royal New Zealand Navy Discussions and Updates

[MrConservative]

And we will also be down to single Anzac again in 2027-2018 for around 12 months as TM and TK will both go into a further life extension due to them being pushed out for another 5-6 years of service under the current Governments so called "Enhanced Strategic Project" plan that went to Cabinet last year.

.... the plan is to give them a further major refit to get them to the later revised date of replacements circa 2035. They will not be relevant in a combat sense post 2030. I doubt very much any sort of combat systems upgrade will happen, that it will be more just a keep them going for a few more years.

The strategic risk to having 0 or just 1 Frigates available between early 2018 to late 2022 they might get away with. However, the strategic environment and consequences I fear will become even more pronounced later in this decade and into the following. They will not get away with it a second time.

Just going back to this topic from the other day regarding a further curtailment of RNZN frigate combat capability that has been forecast and no again no mitigation of it has been signalled. This is not a hypothetical, this will need a solution.

For a nation to be so risk adverse with respect to Covid 19 it is paradoxical that in terms of the known and increasingly worsening geo-strategic deterioration in the Indo-Pacific region, that such a fundamental and wide ranging threat to our sea-lines of communication and the potentially drastic economic damage to New Zealand"s sovereignty, is not already been publicly high-lighted and canvased.

New Zealand is to use a cricketing phrase heading into a "corridor of uncertainty" and we will be right in the middle of it in the later half of it this decade!

What are the options?

Order the Frigates now? Not going to happen because the government has chosen to push the frigate project out to the mid 2030's because they do not want to spend the money - the very reason why this issue has arisen in the first pace. Also they would have to had started this process 2 years ago in 2019 to get the first vessel in the water and commissioned by 2027.

My gut feeling, which is drawn from a wide range of media sources, articles, research essays, and discussions with insightful individuals is that the RNZN will need have available at least 2 frigates at directed level of capability even if it is at the gentlest vignette we could expect - an "expanded grey zone" scenario.

So where do we find, to lease or buy, a couple of "Hail Mary Class" surface combatants to lease or buy in 7-8 years time to get us through the corridor of uncertainty until when the government wants to replace the Anzacs a further 7-8 years after that?

To use another cricket analogy ... the RNZN is going to be like poor old Mike Gatting's lot in the 86 Windies tour facing a pace attack of the likes of Holding, Marshal, Garner and Patterson, if it does not start to get its head around this.

 

[ngatimozart]

The JMSDF have just launched their second 30FFM, the first of class Mogami. We could possibly order 2 of those, even if just the hulls and machinery with us doing the fitting out here.

Japan’s MHI launches ‘Mogami’ 「もがみ」first-in-class 30FFM Frigate for the JMSDF - Naval News

Japanese shipbuilder Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) in Nagasaki launched today "Mogami", the first-in-class 30FFM, a next generation frigate for the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF).

www.navalnews.com

 

[MrConservative]

The JMSDF have just launched their second 30FFM, the first of class Mogami. We could possibly order 2 of those, even if just the hulls and machinery with us doing the fitting out here.

Japan’s MHI launches ‘Mogami’ 「もがみ」first-in-class 30FFM Frigate for the JMSDF - Naval News

Japanese shipbuilder Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) in Nagasaki launched today "Mogami", the first-in-class 30FFM, a next generation frigate for the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF).

www.navalnews.com

No. Because they have shifted the Anzac replacement out due to not wanting to spend the money and putting priority on the cheaper two sealift ships to come first.

So the solution is not going to be new frigates in this time frame as it is not even possible - that is the issue - zero chance of that happening - thinking caps on for a solution that is not new Frigates.

 

[Nighthawk.NZ]

it's a great example of what can be achieved with interoperability between our forces.
Looks like it was a good exercise for both navies.
Hopefully we see much more in future.

I don't see anything new as such??? ... okay a new vessel... but doing nothing new between the two navies, HMNZS Endeavour did the same thing all the time with the RAN, and the RAN considered Endeavour like their 3rd Tanker at times.

So I am sure ... positive, that you will see more... ;-)

 

[Redlands18]

I don't see anything new as such??? ... okay a new vessel... but doing nothing new between the two navies, HMNZS Endeavour did the same thing all the time with the RAN, and the RAN considered Endeavour like their 3rd Tanker at times.

So I am sure ... positive, that you will see more... ;-)

Let’s remember the HMNZS Aotearoa could sail from Devonport refuel half the RANs East Coast fleet and be docked back in Devonport in the time Sirius sailed from Stirling to Sydney.

 

[ngatimozart]

No. Because they have shifted the Anzac replacement out due to not wanting to spend the money and putting priority on the cheaper two sealift ships to come first.

So the solution is not going to be new frigates in this time frame as it is not even possible - that is the issue - zero chance of that happening - thinking caps on for a solution that is not new Frigates.

Pommy Type 23? Which will be a real pain in arse because they have the 4.5in guns and Tigerfish torpedoes.

 

[Hone C]

Pommy Type 23? Which will be a real pain in arse because they have the 4.5in guns and Tigerfish torpedoes.

Type 23 fits the timeframe but will be a pain in the arse as suggested. The RAN will have ANZAC class frigates retiring from 2024 IIRC, which is probably a better option.

Or if right outside the box, dust off the PAM for cutting out operations?

 

[Mikeymike]

Type 23 fits the timeframe but will be a pain in the arse as suggested. The RAN will have ANZAC class frigates retiring from 2024 IIRC, which is probably a better option.

Or if right outside the box, dust off the PAM for cutting out operations?

Considering the first Hunter class isn't due to be commissioned until 2031 I don't think a RAN Anzac will be available before then. Not sure what other countries are thinking of getting rid of any class that would still have enough life left for it to be worthwhile.

The Adelaide's would've been good and provided some capability that NZ doesn't have (SM2) but they have been picked up by Chile already.

 

[Redlands18]

The days of reasonably low use Warships with some life in them coming out out of Europe during and just after the Cold War are all but over. There are no more deals to be had on used Type 12/21/22/23 from the UK or Van Speijks, Kortenaars, Doormans from the Netherlands.

 

[John Fedup]

The days of reasonably low use Warships with some life in them coming out out of Europe during and just after the Cold War are all but over. There are no more deals to be had on used Type 12/21/22/23 from the UK or Van Speijks, Kortenaars, Doormans from the Netherlands.

Agree and that is largely due to vessels being used well after there best before date because most Western governments are overburdened with debt which has been made even worse by COVID. Many replacement programs are too small and slow.

 

[Albedo]

The days of reasonably low use Warships with some life in them coming out out of Europe during and just after the Cold War are all but over. There are no more deals to be had on used Type 12/21/22/23 from the UK or Van Speijks, Kortenaars, Doormans from the Netherlands.

Well for low use warships that a navy can't wait to get rid of there are the first 4 LCS although its doubtful anyone would want to touch them with a 10-foot pole. Presumably too short legs for the RNZN anyways.

 

[Nighthawk.NZ]

Well for low use warships that a navy can't wait to get rid of there are the first 4 LCS although its doubtful anyone would want to touch them with a 10-foot pole. Presumably too short legs for the RNZN anyways.

I would not touch them ... there is a reason they low use and its because gearbox problems... and many other issues. They were classed as prototypes and have all the bugs of a prototype which the slowly have sorted out on the next batch. and as you said the range only 3500nmi is not that great. The IPV's have that issue of only 3000nmi. (which is one of the reasons they were not fit for service not the seaworthiness)

 

[John Fedup]

I would not touch them ... there is a reason they low use and its because gearbox problems... and many other issues. They were classed as prototypes and have all the bugs of a prototype which the slowly have sorted out on the next batch. and as you said the range only 3500nmi is not that great. The IPV's have that issue of only 3000nmi. (which is one of the reasons they were not fit for service not the seaworthiness)

I am sure not all the issues with the propulsion systems have been sorted for LCS even on the new builds. As mentioned, the first four ships are being retired early because they are prototypes. I would argue follow on builds are as well. Horrible waste of resources in these financially challenging times.

 

[MrConservative]

The Thetis Class are scheduled to be replaced later this decade .... not ideal, but as I noted previously it may have to be a used "Hail Mary Class" to fill a gap for a few short years. (And anything selected will cost us more in the end through not being methodical and frankly acting like a normal country when it comes to defence asset replacement in both required numbers, capability and sticking to proper asset lifecycles). Beggars cannot be choosers and unfortunately because of their strategic and fiscal negligence at the political level and the dollars before sense in some areas of our political advisory bureaucracy it will very may well be the situation the NZ Govt will find itself in. The "Grey Zone" strategic disruption which is the the best case scenario is not going away, and nothing that the well intentioned political, media, academic and diplomatic classes in Wellington can do anything about, try as they might - as all they can offer is the smug soothing words of procrastination and prevarication.

Simply put one would have to be completely ignorant, not just incompetent, to not notice the glaring obvious signs that all is not well in the world, in the Indo-Pacific in particular, to come up with a naval acquisition programme that pushes back a planned Frigate replacement programme and brings fully forward a HADR orientated sealift replacement, and in fleet numbers that were even too small in the golden haze of the PostCold War era. I really hope that this message gets through in the next and arguably most critical DWP in our lifetimes. Sadly I have no confidence, in the people both elected and selected to discover for themselves their intellectual dishonesty.

 

[alexsa]

Pommy Type 23? Which will be a real pain in arse because they have the 4.5in guns and Tigerfish torpedoes.

Just a clarification, Tigerfish is a discontinued heavyweight torpedo replaced by Spearfish. I think you mean Stingray. It is not a bad weapon but, as you not, not in the current RNZN inventory.

 

[Rob c]

Just a clarification, Tigerfish is a discontinued heavyweight torpedo replaced by Spearfish. I think you mean Stingray. It is not a bad weapon but, as you not, not in the current RNZN inventory.

I think that the RN uses the same launch platform for the stingray as is used for the MK 46 and 54, if so no need to take on the stingray.

 

[t68]

Type 23 fits the timeframe but will be a pain in the arse as suggested. The RAN will have ANZAC class frigates retiring from 2024 IIRC, which is probably a better option.

Or if right outside the box, dust off the PAM for cutting out operations?

Not really, the NZGov just spent a considerable amount of coin to move from US based armaments to Brit defeats the purpose, would it really be a step in the right direction even as a stop gap. I honestly don't think so as they would have to stockpile weapons before hand over

 

[ngatimozart]

Not really, the NZGov just spent a considerable amount of coin to move from US based armaments to Brit defeats the purpose, would it really be a step in the right direction even as a stop gap. I honestly don't think so as they would have to stockpile weapons before hand over

They have only bought Sea Ceptor. That's one weapons system. They are acquiring the Mk-54 LWT to replace their MK-46 LWT. Unlike the RAN which is operating 2 completely different types of LWT. The ESSM Blk II hasn't even been fielded yet, whereas Sea Ceptor is already in service. So I think that you are stretching things somewhat far based on a single sample.

 

[t68]

They have only bought Sea Ceptor. That's one weapons system. They are acquiring the Mk-54 LWT to replace their MK-46 LWT. Unlike the RAN which is operating 2 completely different types of LWT. The ESSM Blk II hasn't even been fielded yet, whereas Sea Ceptor is already in service. So I think that you are stretching things somewhat far based on a single sample.

The point I was making they have removed the primary launcher from MK41 to the Brit CAMM, I’m not say one is better than the other but for a potential stop gap like what was being suggested. NZG is risk adverse it won’t stock pile incompatible weapons than what is currently used.

Do you see the RNZN next new build frigates using MK41 or stick with CAMM?

 

[Hone C]

Not really, the NZGov just spent a considerable amount of coin to move from US based armaments to Brit defeats the purpose, would it really be a step in the right direction even as a stop gap. I honestly don't think so as they would have to stockpile weapons before hand over

Point acknowledged reference primary launcher, although I do see Mk 41being a serious possibility on the, eventual, frigate replacement.

To be honest, I was thinking more in terms of hull commonality and maintenance cost. The type 23 were only designed with an 18 year hull life. Despite the LIFEX some of them have received, the older ones due to leave RN service in the 2020's may be too worn out to be of much use. The RNZN has experienced that before; tales of wire brushes through hulls come to mind.

Having said that, rumours are swirling about the 'early retirement' of four Type 23 as part of the Integrated Review to be released this month. There may be the prospects for a stop gap solution. We will see.