Royal New Zealand Navy Discussions and Updates

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
The RN had their Tide class ships built in SK and outfitted in the UK. Can’t see the UK, Australia, or Canada allowing their IP for pointy end warships going out of house. Furthermore, a minimally kitted out T26 acquisition from one of the T26 projects from one of the 3 eyes will provide better long term value and eliminate all the hassles that will spring up going outside the “family”.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
In an earlier post I stated that the T26 may be too much ship for NZ and I have been asked to elaborate.

T26 will likely be one of the most effective vessel designs ever to go to sea but its a world away from what NZ and others are operating now.

The current and previous frigates have never sported a surface to surfare or long range anti air missile system. Nor have they had the electronic systems needed to support these weapon systems. To my understanding these three systems make up the bulk of the cost of the T26 in comparison to other more modest frigates such as the ANZAC. The senior navy may want and desire T26 but at what cost? The T26 is in the top percentile of cost and capability. For comparison the RCN had four equivalent vessels to the T26 in our Tribal class destroyers each with Mk 41 VLS for SM2 and two Sea King ASW helicopters. Now we are getting 15 platforms all with the ability that will replace our GP Halifax class frigates at an exponential price. A case could have been made for the RCN to follow the RN and buy fewer T26 and more T31 style vessels allowing for a balanced fleet of sixteen hulls, giving us the ability to simultaneously deploy two task groups. With so few hulls (2) the RNZN would IMHO be better served by three or four T31 style vessels. This approach would allow deployment to the ME, SCS or elsewhere while still having capacity to leave a vessel in home waters while the fourth is in refit.

Its not so much the physical size that is the issue because T31 or the Iver design are 6000 ton plus but the system load out that will make the pollies cringe. Can you honestly say that the NZG will publicly support the purchase of long range SSM and SAM systems on multiple hulls when even the limited few new P8s are not being supplied with an ASM?

The question that needs to be answered is what does NZ want its surface naval force to do? Seemlessly fit into a CBG or an Australian task group or provide real support to national interests in the SP and around the islands of your nation. Like Canada you are not an expeditionary military. And as such your equipment should reflect your needs not the needs of others. NATO has proven that with its standing naval forces that not every ship need be identical. Every participating nation brings a capability to the table. The RNZN needs hulls in the water to be in multiple places at the same time showing a presence and acting as the deterrent to aggression and lawlessness.

We can debate the whole process but what isnt likely to change is the well known political factor of doing as little as possible for defence. By the time an ANZAC replacement is announced and in the water I will be swimming, floating, with the fishes as I am closer to the end than I am to the beginning of life's journey.
So NZDF is not an expeditionary force? Hmm. The last time a war was fought on NZ soil was the NZ wars in the 19th Century (1840s - 1860/70s). Then lets see:
  1. Boer War
  2. WW1 NZ Expeditionary Force (NZEF)
  3. WW2 2nd NZEF
  4. Korean War
  5. Malaysian Emergency
  6. Konfrontasi - Indonesian Confrontation
  7. Vietnam War
  8. GW1
  9. Afghanistan.
Then there is the JATF (Joint Amphibious Task Force) that NZDF have.

Now lets get to the T-26. Wellington has already signalled that it's interested in it. yes our current crop of polies show little interest, but that is slowly changing, as the dragon to the north is showing her true colours in such a way that even a blind fulla can see the danger lurking.
OPSSG with all due respect I do not sit upon a hobby horse and have an opinion based upon a realistic observation. With regard to your questions;

1. No where did I say down spec. The specifications for the T31 are quite capable given the RN planned use of the vessel. The specifications allow for a vessel able to function and fight but not with long range anti air weapon systems such as SM2 thru 6 or Aster. A T31 type vessel would offer a more robust seakeeping vessel due to size plus an open architecture for ease of upgrade. Overall better than the current but with a relatively similar capability weapons and sensors.

2. A T31 type vessel like the current ANZACs would be more than capable of interacting seamlessly with a RAN, USN, RN or RCN task group because of common communications and systems. It just would play a different role than long range air defence. Still able to mount a credible response to immediate threats and and serve a purpose.

The bean counters never will care about performance. Its just $$$$. IMHO the state of western hardware as a result of rampant technology upgrading has lessoned its effectiveness. A read of current French experience in north central africa over the past number of years will expand on this very issue. New gear isnt standing up as well as the less technical older gear in the roughness of the region. I wont even mention the F35 as it is a perfect example of this.

I may live in a benign area devoid of the threats that you and many others on DT face daily but I am not so naive to believe that NZ GOTD will stump up for even a bare bones T26 FFBNW the missles. h

The replacement of the ANZACs will in all likelihood be a SK built version of a vessel similar in capabilities as the current ANZACs but on a larger hull. If I am wrong so what. I have nothing but an opinion. Hell I dont even think Junior will outfit the CSC fleet when they start commissioning if he is still around.
You do sit astride and ride a hobby horse. You've had this habit for a long time of proposing platforms that don't meet NZ requirements and don't take into account NZs culture, history, geopolitical, geographical and geostrategic conditions.

Yes I may like the OMT F370, but compared to the T-26 it doesn't stand a chance, and the T-31 as presented wouldn't be a good investment for NZ. The T-26 would be a far better fit with the RAN, RN, USN & RCN than the T-31 would ever be, especially in an area that has submarines and AShM capable platforms breeding like rabbits.

Canada is a continental nation, NZ isn't it being an island maritime nation 920 nm from its nearest neighbour, which itself is an island, albeit a continental sized one. You can't seem to understand that. I live in a country that's about 1,200 miles long and about 200 miles wide at its widest point. It has the 2nd roughest piece of water in the world (Cook Strait) that splits it in the middle which is about 30 miles wide at its narrowest point. The North Island is split diagonally by volcanoes one of which (Taupo) is a supervolcano and one of the most dangerous on the planet. The South Island is split longitudinally by a mountain range, the Southern Alps, formed by plate tectonics. The South Island is seperated from Stewart island by the 3rd roughest piece of water in the world, Foveaux Strait. Apart from some small sub Antarctic islands the next stop below NZ is Antarctica about 2100 nm south. We don't have a super power next door with a large rich population, to which we can pile our export goods into trucks and trains and just drive over the border. 99.5% of everything that we export and import has to be shipped by sea and the vast majority of that through seas within reach of the the dragon to the north and inhabited by the aforementioned submarines and AShM capable platforms breeding like rabbits.
 

Nighthawk.NZ

Well-Known Member
This probably been posted before, but it puts some things into perspective ...


This is just New Zealand's Search and Rescue area superimposed over Europe. Kind of brings the size of it into perspective.

New Zealand's Economic Zone on the other hand



As ngatimozart says

We don't have any borders neighboring us, especially a border to the current super-power of the planet. We are an island nation, we have vast oceans and seas surrounding us. Our land mass is only 268,021 km² divided into two main islands and a variety of smaller. We have a population of 4.9 million... and a GDP of roughly 206 Billion USD (and rising).

Our nearest ally is 2000 KM's away across and ocean/sea. We have a resource-rich southern ocean to the south we need to protect, we have island nations to the north that rely on us.

We have to ship all our imports and exports, and 90% of them transit through the South China Sea... And China is on the move and slowly blocking both Aussie and NZ off from the US, and Canada

Due to this we have to be able to stand on our own and be able to protect that the best we can, the thing is we aren't ever going to match any force that has the ability to project an invading force. But having decent naval assets is part of that. And unfortunately, successive governments have failed on this.

Being "Island Nation" surrounded by sea we need to have naval and patroling assets that can hold there own in the time of need. Both standard patrol and some decent offense fighting power, the T-26 would be a start to getting this. At present we don't have that.
 

Novascotiaboy

Active Member
Top marks for the history an geography lesson Ngati but you were a contributor of personnel and resources to other peoples problems most notably as a member of the Commonwealth of former English colonies. Canada participated in the same.

Your history in the last half century is marred by political idealism that has left the military in a precarious position of having but the bare minimum of people and equipment.

Just because I have an opinion that differs from others concerning platforms vs numbers so what. The gang mentality of those who participate here is child like.

Continue to live in your dream world that two T26 or more will get purchased at $3 billion each. The same refrain from 30 years ago will ring loud from the ill informed population.

Im done here.

Too many old salts living with their memories and past glories.
 

StobieWan

Super Moderator
Staff member
The RN had their Tide class ships built in SK and outfitted in the UK. Can’t see the UK, Australia, or Canada allowing their IP for pointy end warships going out of house. Furthermore, a minimally kitted out T26 acquisition from one of the T26 projects from one of the 3 eyes will provide better long term value and eliminate all the hassles that will spring up going outside the “family”.

I'm reading between the lines but I get the impression that the SK build didn't go as smoothly as some commentators (myself included) would have thought - certainly one comment I've heard was that it'd have been better for them to be floated out and not fitted out to anything like the degree they were as certainly the first in class needed a lot of rework for various reasons (power distribution, cabling standards etc)

Complex warship construction on the other hand, that's always going to be something reserved for domestic yards if they exist.

I find the comments about T31 not meeting requirements for the Anzac replacements interesting as I'd leaned that way myself, seeing the Type 31 as a large and roomy replacement, with many systems of a similar spec to the Anzac rebuilds with plenty of room for improvements in spec if needed.

Now, don't get me wrong, I'd love to grab the hat trick on common wealth builds and get NZ on board with Type 26 but it does seem relatively high end for what they'd be replacing ?

I guess we'll know soon enough, out of service dates for the current fleet both land in the 2020's so they're going to have to hit "add to cart" sometime in the next couple of years, allowing for construction, fit out, work up etc.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
@StobieWan ...yes, I have read some negative comments regarding quality on the Tide class build. Still, the pricing very aggressive and I think the RN is reasonably satisfied. If NZ were to consider the T31 over the T26, I think they would have to be UK sourced. The other possibility is whatever the USN decides on for their frigate. IMHO, the T26’s ASW features make it an good choice for the Asia Pacific region given the huge proliferation of new submarine entries.
 

alexsa

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Top marks for the history an geography lesson Ngati but you were a contributor of personnel and resources to other peoples problems most notably as a member of the Commonwealth of former English colonies. Canada participated in the same.

Your history in the last half century is marred by political idealism that has left the military in a precarious position of having but the bare minimum of people and equipment.

Just because I have an opinion that differs from others concerning platforms vs numbers so what. The gang mentality of those who participate here is child like.

Continue to live in your dream world that two T26 or more will get purchased at $3 billion each. The same refrain from 30 years ago will ring loud from the ill informed population.

Im done here.

Too many old salts living with their memories and past glories.
No, you are being asked to justify some of the claims you make to support your myopic focus on a particular solution. The context of the environment where the RAN and RNZN will have to operate is an entirely reasonable item to consider and does point to the need to have a more capable platform .... not a cost driven platform that may not necessarily have the capability that will be required. You are being churlish because this does not gel with the case you keep making.

You still have not justified the price tag of 3 billion dollars per unit for the T26 when even the cost of the first three RN vessels is much less than that ..... and these costs appear to include sunk costs for the production run of 8.

I was impressed when Australia selected the Hunter as it broke with the previous habit of buying a platform based on cost. This is compromised thinking as evident from the cost to upgrade the ANZAC from a fitted for but not with status to one where the vessel can defend itself.

So ....... since it is a central pillar of your case ..... justify the 3 billion!!!
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I don’t know where nova’s 3billion cost comes from. The CSC budget (from a couple of years ago was 60 billion of which 55% was for the ships themselves so roughly 2 billion CDN per ship)
 

StobieWan

Super Moderator
Staff member
Continue to live in your dream world that two T26 or more will get purchased at $3 billion each. The same refrain from 30 years ago will ring loud from the ill informed population.

Show your working - and is that USD, AUD or Kiwi beer vouchers ?

If you can come up with a line of reasoning that states they're going to cost $3bn each in whatever currency you're working in, and where you got that figure from, I'd be happy to discuss it but so far, you've been very short on actual numbers.

Now, program costs for the UK Type 26 are a matter of record, although they do need some picking through to explain but to even get close to $3bn New Zealand dollars, well, I can't see it. Total program costs listed as of late 2019 appear to be 3.7bn GBP, which even if you do a very simple minded 3.7/8 approach, then use a conversion rate of .49 dollars to the pound, still gets you to a third of the figure you've quoted.


Show me the workings please ?
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I'm reading between the lines but I get the impression that the SK build didn't go as smoothly as some commentators (myself included) would have thought - certainly one comment I've heard was that it'd have been better for them to be floated out and not fitted out to anything like the degree they were as certainly the first in class needed a lot of rework for various reasons (power distribution, cabling standards etc)

Complex warship construction on the other hand, that's always going to be something reserved for domestic yards if they exist.

I find the comments about T31 not meeting requirements for the Anzac replacements interesting as I'd leaned that way myself, seeing the Type 31 as a large and roomy replacement, with many systems of a similar spec to the Anzac rebuilds with plenty of room for improvements in spec if needed.

Now, don't get me wrong, I'd love to grab the hat trick on common wealth builds and get NZ on board with Type 26 but it does seem relatively high end for what they'd be replacing ?

I guess we'll know soon enough, out of service dates for the current fleet both land in the 2020's so they're going to have to hit "add to cart" sometime in the next couple of years, allowing for construction, fit out, work up etc.
@StobieWan I learned a lot towards the OMT F370 of which the T-31 is a derivative, but my view of the RN variant as never favourable. My opinion was that if we went down that road, we'd be better off acquiring a licence from OMT and working from there.

With the T-26, now that the RAN & RCN are building it and adapting the base design for themselves, it does make sense for us to go down the same route and the RCN CSC does have some features that would appeal to the RNZN. The T-31 / OMT F370 was never designed from the keel up as a pure ASW frigate, although there are provisions in the design of machinery spaces to raft the machinery. The T-26 is and it has a large production run as well, RAN (9 + 3*), RCN (15), RN (5) (*possible Hobart DDG replacements), so it makes sense for NZ to give the T-26 very serious consideration. Wellington has also learned the lesson that 2 frigates just doesn't work and is a false economy, although it might have to be taught to Treasury with a sledge hammer and some thunder flashes.

The reason that the current ANZAC frigates don't have SSMs is mostly cost based along with the argument that the Seasprite helos have the Penguin AShM. Unfortunately the trusty Seasprite has to get well within the enemy ships SAM umbrella before it can launch said Penguin. Scratch one Seasprite and the frigates only carry one. Also there are stability issue with the mounting of 8 Harpoon missiles along with the modern AESA radars etc, as the RAN have found out. The current plan is to replace both the frigates in the 2030s.
 

Nighthawk.NZ

Well-Known Member
Wellington has also learned the lesson that 2 frigates just doesn't work and is a false economy, although it might have to be taught to Treasury with a sledge hammer and some thunder flashes.
One would hope... but the actual bean counters don't think that far ahead... or do they dun dun dunnnnnn lol o_O

The reason that the current ANZAC frigates don't have SSMs is mostly cost based along with the argument that the Seasprite helos have the Penguin AShM. Unfortunately the trusty Seasprite has to get well within the enemy ships SAM umbrella before it can launch said Penguin. Scratch one Seasprite and the frigates only carry one.
The Penguin is only a short to medium range missile on a good day. And really only good against lightly armed vessels.

Also there are stability issue with the mounting of 8 Harpoon missiles along with the modern AESA radars etc, as the RAN have found out. The current plan is to replace both the frigates in the 2030s.
(I read somewhere... and can not find the document now ...) I am pretty sure they are still "fitted for, but not with" and the weight considerations for adding them were all part of modernization program so they can still be added (if ever needed) and the weight of adding them shouldn't be too much of an issue etc...
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
One would hope... but the actual bean counters don't think that far ahead... or do they dun dun dunnnnnn lol o_O

The Penguin is only a short to medium range missile on a good day. And really only good against lightly armed vessels.

(I read somewhere... and can not find the document now ...) I am pretty sure they are still "fitted for, but not with" and the weight considerations for adding them were all part of modernization program so they can still be added (if ever needed) and the weight of adding them shouldn't be too much of an issue etc...
I have wondered for a long time if there is a strong anti defence bias in Treasury; you know a cabal of left wing peaceniks or something like that Auckland peace action group. Well if they are FFBNW the govt would be too stingy to buy them. If perchance they did, we'd be better off going with the NSM rather than the Harpoon which is now obsolete.
 

Nighthawk.NZ

Well-Known Member
If perchance they did, we'd be better off going with the NSM rather than the Harpoon which is now obsolete.
Totally agree. but you know bean counters that's newish tech and that costs more... If we ever did decide to put a ship bourne AShM it would be Harpoon, and we would probably be the only country that operates them... just sayin... lol
 

Novascotiaboy

Active Member
Stobiewan using the 55% figure for the actual vessels as noted by John Fedup the cost per T26 CSC variant works out to NZ$2.57 Billion. Add in infrastructure costs to accommodate these vessels in Devonport or a new naval base and you are very nearly $3 billion per ship.

As has been recently noted by various DT Mods the NZ Gov is averse to spending $$$$$$ on defence.

So I say again that as much as a T26 purchase would be a good thing three or four T31 "type" would be more cost effective even if each of these vessels cost NZ$1 billion each which is double the published cost of a UK T31.

Over and over again on DT in the various threads it is continually noted how effective submarines today are. As a result unless the T26 is 100% silent then a submarine still has the advantage. Look how many times during exercises that Allied Navy SSKs "killed" a US carrier. Surfacing off their side unaware by the carrier and unseen by her escorts. I know from personal talks with old RCN O boat crews that they regularly pulled this off.

So for the 99.97% of the time that these new frigates will be in service a T31 type, less than T26, will be sufficient for taskings by the NZ government.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Two billion CDN is more like 2.34 billion NZ. Until one of each type gets built (and by that I mean T31 and each 3eye T26), price discussions aren’t pretty error prone at the moment and fortunately NZ has the time to study what is best. This will be a 35-40 year investment so future capability for serious upgrades will be important. Also, I don’t think it is unrealistic to assume a NZ T31 variant could be more expensive than a UK T31.
 

shadow99

Member
So for the 99.97% of the time that these new frigates will be in service a T31 type,
That's quite the crystal ball you have there.

Look how many times during exercises that Allied Navy SSKs "killed" a US carrier. Surfacing off their side unaware by the carrier and unseen by her escorts
I don't understand your logic Novascotiaboy. With the difficulty of tracking submarines, you recomend a type 31 ship over a type 26?

Picture yourself in the open ocean and when things go sideways would you really rather be standing on a type 31 or type 26?

My prediction is Things will go sideways much sooner than later, and bringing the best capability to the table is of utmost importance. Give our sailors,(which are our children and grand children going in harms way), the absolute best we can!
 
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Nighthawk.NZ

Well-Known Member
Please define what is too much ship... ??? and how is it too much ship...??? or are you just talking cost which is a totally different subject.
My overall point is that until the GOTD comes up with the cash the chance of T26 IMHO is zip.
Cash is King. Money over Bitches.
So overall you are just talking about cash, and the price tag of said vessels, and as I said that is a totally different subject.

I don't think anyone here is denying the vessels are in the upper echelon price tag, but you haven't put up a decent argument why they are too much ship for NZ and why the gubberment shouldn't even consider them.

NZ can afford them, but yes we agree that the gubberment may not want to pay that much but things and attitudes are slowly changing here in NZ towards defence...
 

StobieWan

Super Moderator
Staff member
Stobiewan using the 55% figure for the actual vessels as noted by John Fedup the cost per T26 CSC variant works out to NZ$2.57 Billion. Add in infrastructure costs to accommodate these vessels in Devonport or a new naval base and you are very nearly $3 billion per ship.

So for the 99.97% of the time that these new frigates will be in service a T31 type, less than T26, will be sufficient for taskings by the NZ government.
That's pretty much the same calculation the RN made in building the Type 21's- relatively cheap, fairly nicely built frigates intended for low end combat. And hey, 99% of the time they *were* fine.

Unfortunately, the other 1% of the time, sailors died.

And I still don't get where you're pulling this figure of 3Bn a ship, I'm taking my costs from the UK construction program which already is well advanced. It's the nearest thing you've got for a spec and a build cost.
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
So overall you are just talking about cash, and the price tag of said vessels, and as I said that is a totally different subject.

I don't think anyone here is denying the vessels are in the upper echelon price tag, but you haven't put up a decent argument why they are too much ship for NZ and why the gubberment shouldn't even consider them.

NZ can afford them, but yes we agree that the gubberment may not want to pay that much but things and attitudes are slowly changing here in NZ towards defence...
Going from the Anzac to a T26 would be a major step up in capability for NZ, introducing new capabilities in a much larger Hull yes. Now only if NZ had 3 very close Allies that would already have been operating the T26 for several years who would be more than happy to help with that transition.
Oh well.
 

Black Jack Shellac

Active Member
...And I still don't get where you're pulling this figure of 3Bn a ship, I'm taking my costs from the UK construction program which already is well advanced. It's the nearest thing you've got for a spec and a build cost.
This is from a previous post on the RCN thread (post #1877). It is based on the Canadian Parliamentary Budget Office, which is an independent government watchdog. Bottom line is the T26 is $1.24 B USD in today's dollars for the 9th ship built on the production line. Excluding VAT, Export duties, Weapons, inflation, etc.....

Pricing a warship is like asking how long is a piece of string, there is no correct answer. The final cost will depend on not just the cost, it will depend on (as stated above) inflation, VAT, duties, weapons loadout, spares, and whatever else is required as well on where in the build sequence it is built and how much of the learning curve the building country is willing to absorb.

I am not going to get into whether NZ should get the T26 or not, NZ can decide that for themselves. However, I would say that there are advantages to getting the T26 with respect to commonality, since RN, RAN and RCN are all getting it. That said, whatever the USN gets for the FFG(x) would likely be a cheaper option, have just as much commonality and be quicker to procure (I think the waiting list on the T26 might be quite long considering the build queue).

Repost below:

I wanted to try and unravel how much the PBO (from link in post 1875 RCN thread) actually thinks the build cost for the CSC will be. This was not really necessary as they list the individual build cost on page 19 as $1.9B Canadian in 2019 dollars. This is not the true cost however. The budget includes HST of 15% (so they are charging themselves 15% more and then giving the extra money back to themselves, government efficiency at work). So the actual cost is $1.65B. This is in CAD, since most references are in USD, the conversion is $1.24B USD (using 75 cents US:100 CAD). For comparison, the Burke is estimated to cost $2B USD each.

The $69.8B total cost is broken down to $5.3B preproduction cost, $53.2B production cost and $11.4B post production (spares, ammunition, etc). So how does $1.9B each inflate up to $53.2B for 15 ships? First off, that is the 9th ship cost, not the first ship cost, and there is an assumed 77.5% learning curve, meaning every doubling of the number of ships the cost is reduced by 77.5%. So the cost for the individual ships is:

1 4.26B
2 3.30B
3 2.85B
4 2.56B
5 2.36B
6 2.21B
7 2.08B
8 1.98B
9 1.90B
10 1.83B
11 1.76B
12 1.71B
13 1.66B
14 1.62B
15 1.57B

On top of this, they are not reporting in 2019 dollars, they are reporting in then year dollars. This would not typically be done by any business and most people do not understand it. It is done by the govt so that they do not have to adjust spending bills every year for inflation. Inflation is assumed to be 1.1% above the CPI inflation of 2.1% for 3.2% total. The 1.1% is a military shipbuilding premium based on historic costs.

The PBO assumes the first ship will start in 2024 and be delivered in ~2025, with the last ship delivered in 2043; a 20 year program (I had to guess on the first delivery date and had to use 2025 to reproduce their numbers). once the inflation is added to the 2019 cost, the total cost comes out to $53.2B

So govt math makes 1.24B USD (comparative cost) turn into 3.55B CAD. They post this and everyone in Canada says "why don't we just buy a Burke, it would be only 2B for a way better ship". But if you do the same math on the Burke you actually get 5.73B each.
 
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