Royal New Zealand Air Force

[Gibbo]

An interesting bit of info from one of the members on the Wings over New Zealand aviation forum, as follows:

“I had a really interesting conversation with someone today. Obviously I can't say who but I now have a very clear idea on what the future transport fleet will look like. No surprises really, but Treasury are going to determine what we end up ordering. They have put the brakes on what NZDF wants to do over the next few years (DCP) and essentially we can have 2 A400s or 2 KC-390s or 5 C-130Js... and whatever we get has to be delivered in 2022 (when the current Herc's structure is expected to turn into confetti). A 2 airframe fleet isn't going to work so that leaves just one contender... expect an announcement shortly.”

A400 for RNZAF | Wings Over New Zealand

I believe this member has a pretty good source and this is not just scuttlebutt thrown up on the inter webs by an armchair critic / internet commando.

If true, this is incredibly frustrating.

Yes saw this too and if true it is indeed frustrating but totally unsurprising. I'm thinking this might have at least an element of truth to it, as the statement '...has to be delivered in 2022...' is something that suggests the source has knowledge of something quite specific to the project that only an insider in the know is likely to be aware of. It is quite plausible Treasury have made this edict and only those 'around the project table' would be privvy to such a thing, it's not a statement some random scuttlebuttler is likely to pop out with.

So ok say it is true, the supposed options of 5 x C130J versus 2 x A400M or 2 x KC390 would possibly indicate the comparative prices (purchase; training; support & infrastructure costs) - which suggest the C130J purchase offers the least 'overhead' ...unsurprisingly the path of least resistance! Hopefully they'll be -30 stretched models.

In many ways it is the strategic component of the FAMC that offers the better scope for enhancing the transport capability,and by then we may well have a different Govt.

 

[beegee]

An interesting bit of info from one of the members on the Wings over New Zealand aviation forum, as follows:

“I had a really interesting conversation with someone today. Obviously I can't say who but I now have a very clear idea on what the future transport fleet will look like. No surprises really, but Treasury are going to determine what we end up ordering. They have put the brakes on what NZDF wants to do over the next few years (DCP) and essentially we can have 2 A400s or 2 KC-390s or 5 C-130Js... and whatever we get has to be delivered in 2022 (when the current Herc's structure is expected to turn into confetti). A 2 airframe fleet isn't going to work so that leaves just one contender... expect an announcement shortly.”

A400 for RNZAF | Wings Over New Zealand

I believe this member has a pretty good source and this is not just scuttlebutt thrown up on the inter webs by an armchair critic / internet commando.

If true, this is incredibly frustrating.

5 x C-130Js was always the hot favourite, but only 2 x KC-390s makes no sense to me. Embraer was marketing the KC-390 as a cheaper, lower life-cycle cost option compared to the C-130J. It's supposed to be cheaper than the other two. I'm a bit suspicious.

Brazilian aircraft takes on an American military icon

The estimated price for each KC-390 would range between $50 million to $55 million, according to a 2016 report from the Teal Group -- around $15 million less than the Hercules.

 

[Cadredave]

An interesting bit of info from one of the members on the Wings over New Zealand aviation forum, as follows:

“I had a really interesting conversation with someone today. Obviously I can't say who but I now have a very clear idea on what the future transport fleet will look like. No surprises really, but Treasury are going to determine what we end up ordering. They have put the brakes on what NZDF wants to do over the next few years (DCP) and essentially we can have 2 A400s or 2 KC-390s or 5 C-130Js... and whatever we get has to be delivered in 2022 (when the current Herc's structure is expected to turn into confetti). A 2 airframe fleet isn't going to work so that leaves just one contender... expect an announcement shortly.”

A400 for RNZAF | Wings Over New Zealand

I believe this member has a pretty good source and this is not just scuttlebutt thrown up on the inter webs by an armchair critic / internet commando.

If true, this is incredibly frustrating.

First off never believe a story when it's starts off "I had a very interesting conversation today" example I have close friends involved with the Army recovery vehicle project and guess what I/ we couldn't get jack s#@t information out of them any one on a project team won't be having an interesting conversation with anyone else except those involved with the project and or MoD reps...word gets out and your career will hit a huge brick wall. My take on this is that they were talking about the tactical part of FAMC only until the Minister releases it on MSM it's just a rumour.

CD

 

[Whiplash34]

First off never believe a story when it's starts off "I had a very interesting conversation today" example I have close friends involved with the Army recovery vehicle project and guess what I/ we couldn't get jack s#@t information out of them any one on a project team won't be having an interesting conversation with anyone else except those involved with the project and or MoD reps...word gets out and your career will hit a huge brick wall. My take on this is that they were talking about the tactical part of FAMC only until the Minister releases it on MSM it's just a rumour.

CD

Rgr that CD, agree on the whole....it’s almost akin to the phrase “hey, hold my beer...watch this...”, but I thought it worthy given the poster’s background, standing and previous sensible / reliable posts.

 

[Gibbo]

First off never believe a story when it's starts off "I had a very interesting conversation today" example I have close friends involved with the Army recovery vehicle project and guess what I/ we couldn't get jack s#@t information out of them any one on a project team won't be having an interesting conversation with anyone else except those involved with the project and or MoD reps...word gets out and your career will hit a huge brick wall. My take on this is that they were talking about the tactical part of FAMC only until the Minister releases it on MSM it's just a rumour.

CD

Yes good call CD! Very good point about blabbing, if you were on a project team looking at a many multi-million dollar core project such as FAMC & you told anyone outside the circle you'd deserve to have your employment terminated immediately.

Ok, think positive, think positive, think positive,...

 

[Cadredave]

Yes good call CD! Very good point about blabbing, if you were on a project team looking at a many multi-million dollar core project such as FAMC & you told anyone outside the circle you'd deserve to have your employment terminated immediately.

Ok, think positive, think positive, think positive,...

I believe they were talking in general terms and applying that to how treasury have behaved in the past, have a look at the Ministers last brief about how he approached cabinet and treasury about applying a new model for funding for the P-8 and spreading the cost of a project over a number of years instead of a whole upfront payment as occurred in the past...this project is to important in regards to our Asia Pacific reset & imho tied to future impacts of global warming. Minister has been setting the narrative for awhile now.

 

[Xthenaki]

Yes saw this too and if true it is indeed frustrating but totally unsurprising. I'm thinking this might have at least an element of truth to it, as the statement '...has to be delivered in 2022...' is something that suggests the source has knowledge of something quite specific to the project that only an insider in the know is likely to be aware of. It is quite plausible Treasury have made this edict and only those 'around the project table' would be privvy to such a thing, it's not a statement some random scuttlebuttler is likely to pop out with.

So ok say it is true, the supposed options of 5 x C130J versus 2 x A400M or 2 x KC390 would possibly indicate the comparative prices (purchase; training; support & infrastructure costs) - which suggest the C130J purchase offers the least 'overhead' ...unsurprisingly the path of least resistance! Hopefully they'll be -30 stretched models.

In many ways it is the strategic component of the FAMC that offers the better scope for enhancing the transport capability,and by then we may well have a different Govt.

Looking at positives for the C130J.
Aussie and the USA have them.
Lots of available parts and even used replacement aircraft (Later - may add to fleet)
The KC version offers many benefits and adds refuelling to our air force.
If five platforms are ordered they are new so we will have more aircraft available for use.
Other versions are available.
Easy transition into our Air force both in the air and at base.
A good start if the strategic replacement follows separately

 

[ngatimozart]

An interesting bit of info from one of the members on the Wings over New Zealand aviation forum, as follows:

“I had a really interesting conversation with someone today. Obviously I can't say who but I now have a very clear idea on what the future transport fleet will look like. No surprises really, but Treasury are going to determine what we end up ordering. They have put the brakes on what NZDF wants to do over the next few years (DCP) and essentially we can have 2 A400s or 2 KC-390s or 5 C-130Js... and whatever we get has to be delivered in 2022 (when the current Herc's structure is expected to turn into confetti). A 2 airframe fleet isn't going to work so that leaves just one contender... expect an announcement shortly.”

A400 for RNZAF | Wings Over New Zealand

I believe this member has a pretty good source and this is not just scuttlebutt thrown up on the inter webs by an armchair critic / internet commando.

If true, this is incredibly frustrating.

That particular poster on WONZ is a high quality poster and he would've given it considerable thought before he posted that post. I treat anything that he posts as quite reliable. However his source maybe a different story and that is something that we can't evaluate.

The MOD / NZDF procurement team are very professional now and I think it highly unlikely that one or more of the team would leak any details of the projects at all. I admit that it's possible, but still unlikely. There could be a leak at the Treasury end, or someone is playing political games.

Therefore I would treat the contents of the post with great caution until the DCP is released AND the tactical air mobility capability platform is announced.

 

[Gibbo]

I believe they were talking in general terms and applying that to how treasury have behaved in the past, have a look at the Ministers last brief about how he approached cabinet and treasury about applying a new model for funding for the P-8 and spreading the cost of a project over a number of years instead of a whole upfront payment as occurred in the past...this project is to important in regards to our Asia Pacific reset & imho tied to future impacts of global warming. Minister has been setting the narrative for awhile now.

Yes there's been positive talk on the new model of procurement so hopefully Treasury are indeed on board going forward. You're certainly right about the importance of this project...I guess after decades of cost-cutting & capability downgrades it's hard to have a naturally positive outlook.

 

[Gibbo]

Looking at positives for the C130J.
Aussie and the USA have them.
Lots of available parts and even used replacement aircraft (Later - may add to fleet)
The KC version offers many benefits and adds refuelling to our air force.
If five platforms are ordered they are new so we will have more aircraft available for use.
Other versions are available.
Easy transition into our Air force both in the air and at base.
A good start if the strategic replacement follows separately

Yep text book stuff a C130J purchase, arguably the real opportunity lies with the strategic component which is a separate piece of work to the C130H replacement and has a later required date.

 

[t68]

And with any luck the C130H maybe offloaded to Canada, after all they only just had a MLU done not long ago

 

[Novascotiaboy]

We may buy used subs, used offshore supply boats, used fighters but our seventeen Hercules were purchased new about ten years ago. All J30s.

The discussion has taken place on the benefits of a second round of Hercules for the RNZAF and it truly is the least risk option with seamless crew transition and an existing bank of knowledge and ground equipment to work with.

2022 isnt very far away. If C130J is the choice lets hope at least some if not all are the J30 stretched model with a few extra features such as those proposed in the dedicated SOF model.

 

[t68]

We may buy used subs, used offshore supply boats, used fighters but our seventeen Hercules were purchased new about ten years ago. All J30s.

The discussion has taken place on the benefits of a second round of Hercules for the RNZAF and it truly is the least risk option with seamless crew transition and an existing bank of knowledge and ground equipment to work with.

2022 isnt very far away. If C130J is the choice lets hope at least some if not all are the J30 stretched model with a few extra features such as those proposed in the dedicated SOF model.

I was under the impression that the H's were converted to tanker's and SAR, which are being replaced with C295. wasn't sure what they did with the tankers, is this outdated info?

 

[Novascotiaboy]

The KC130H models fly from Winnipeg and are 30 years old or so. The C130J30s fry from Trenton alonside the C17 and Polaris. The first of the new C295W are due late this year from all reports.

 

[Stampede]

Do we know for sure if a NH90 will fit inside without significant dis-assembly?

Just think it might be a bit too 'green' for NZ (ie: small numbers & unproven over time)

Yes I've been to the Air show and no I'm not an expert.
What I can say is that the C-2 looks bloody impressive. Not just on paper but internally it's deceptively big.
4m wide internal cargo area and tall enough to kick a football.This is excellent usable and flexible space
I can see the appeal of the Hercules on many levels but it is last century's plane internally.
I'm not sure it's future proofed for the vehicles / helicopters it will carry in the decades ahead.
I can appreciate many ingredients will form the decision but for myself the NZ transport arm needs a different mix to the current 2 x Boeing 757 and 5 x C-130 Hercules.
I'd look at all planes having a ramp and suggest 4 x C-2 with 5 x C-27J.
Charter Air NZ to do some of the long range cargo / personal / VIP stuff.
This should be doable but I understand the time frame is not friendly


Regards S

 

[kiwipatriot69]

Yes I've been to the Air show and no I'm not an expert.
What I can say is that the C-2 looks bloody impressive. Not just on paper but internally it's deceptively big.
4m wide internal cargo area and tall enough to kick a football.This is excellent usable and flexible space
I can see the appeal of the Hercules on many levels but it is last century's plane internally.
I'm not sure it's future proofed for the vehicles / helicopters it will carry in the decades ahead.
I can appreciate many ingredients will form the decision but for myself the NZ transport arm needs a different mix to the current 2 x Boeing 757 and 5 x C-130 Hercules.
I'd look at all planes having a ramp and suggest 4 x C-2 with 5 x C-27J.
Charter Air NZ to do some of the long range cargo / personal / VIP stuff.
This should be doable but I understand the time frame is not friendly


Regards S

I would be curious though, has C2 or A400 been tested in Antarctic conditions, yes I'm well aware that's not the only takings it will do.

 

[MrConservative]

I would be curious though, has C2 or A400 been tested in Antarctic conditions, yes I'm well aware that's not the only takings it will do.

The C-2 has been ice and snow tested in Hokkaido, which is seriously cold in the winter.

 

[Kiwigov]

Yes I've been to the Air show and no I'm not an expert.
What I can say is that the C-2 looks bloody impressive.
I'd look at all planes having a ramp and suggest 4 x C-2 with 5 x C-27J.
Charter Air NZ to do some of the long range cargo / personal / VIP stuff.
This should be doable but I understand the time frame is not friendly

Interesting aspect is whether the FAMC decision implicitly recognises the trade and geopolitical dimension of a purchase, as it seems the P-8 decision (partially?) recognised (notwithstanding inter-op advantages with friends and allies). This could lend weight to a C-2 purchase, especially given the apparent payload/range/pricing advantages over the C-130J*. Sure the RNZAF would prefer a known quantity, but a view could be that they adapted well to the new technology of the NH-90 and A-109, and will be expected to adapt to the step-change of the P-8A.

Also, NZ could extract a very favourable maintenance and support deal out of Kawasaki, being a lead export customer. KHI would have a very strong incentive to make sure the RNZAF C-2s had the highest possible availability and lower cost per flight hour.

So one could imaging, as you suggest, 3-4 C-2 and a mix of 3-4 C-295s (to keep the European's on-side), especially as a couple of the C-295 could be kitted with maritime surveillance tech. Which is a proven capacity of that type, unlike the C-27.

*Basing this entirely on the NZ Herald graphic from 2017, so reliant on the research skills of the MSM

 

[ngatimozart]

Interesting aspect is whether the FAMC decision implicitly recognises the trade and geopolitical dimension of a purchase, as it seems the P-8 decision (partially?) recognised (notwithstanding inter-op advantages with friends and allies). This could lend weight to a C-2 purchase, especially given the apparent payload/range/pricing advantages over the C-130J*. Sure the RNZAF would prefer a known quantity, but a view could be that they adapted well to the new technology of the NH-90 and A-109, and will be expected to adapt to the step-change of the P-8A.

Also, NZ could extract a very favourable maintenance and support deal out of Kawasaki, being a lead export customer. KHI would have a very strong incentive to make sure the RNZAF C-2s had the highest possible availability and lower cost per flight hour.

So one could imaging, as you suggest, 3-4 C-2 and a mix of 3-4 C-295s (to keep the European's on-side), especially as a couple of the C-295 could be kitted with maritime surveillance tech. Which is a proven capacity of that type, unlike the C-27.

*Basing this entirely on the NZ Herald graphic from 2017, so reliant on the research skills of the MSM

C-2 as a strategic airlifter because it isn't really designed to be a tactical airlifter and acquiring it would be a good geopolitical move. The C-130J as the tactical airlifter because of it's ability to lift a good sized load over a long range which is very important in the NZ context and is the reason why airlifters such as the C295 & C-27J don't cut the mustard in the NZ context.

Geopolitically, defence and security wise the US is far more important to us than the Euros are, and we (and Australia) have to be Asia focused, not looking back at times gone by to the poms and Europe. The poms shafted both Australia & NZ in 1941 / 42 with the Singapore debacle, amongst other things, and again in 1972 when they joined the EEC. The only thing that the Euros have that we are interested in is a trade deal and TBH, like a US trade deal, it could be more trouble than it's worth. The Euros and poms (stand fast France) don't have a permanent military presence in the Indo Pacific, and their military presence is a rather nebulous drifting in and out. France has it's Pacific territories in the South Pacific where it has a permanent military presence.

 

[Whiplash34]

C-2 as a strategic airlifter because it isn't really designed to be a tactical airlifter and acquiring it would be a good geopolitical move. The C-130J as the tactical airlifter because of it's ability to lift a good sized load over a long range which is very important in the NZ context and is the reason why airlifters such as the C295 & C-27J don't cut the mustard in the NZ context.

Geopolitically, defence and security wise the US is far more important to us than the Euros are, and we (and Australia) have to be Asia focused, not looking back at times gone by to the poms and Europe. The poms shafted both Australia & NZ in 1941 / 42 with the Singapore debacle, amongst other things, and again in 1972 when they joined the EEC. The only thing that the Euros have that we are interested in is a trade deal and TBH, like a US trade deal, it could be more trouble than it's worth. The Euros and poms (stand fast France) don't have a permanent military presence in the Indo Pacific, and their military presence is a rather nebulous drifting in and out. France has it's Pacific territories in the South Pacific where it has a permanent military presence.

Great post, absolutely spot on.

The more I look at the C-2, the more I think this would be a great acquisition for NZ’s strategic lift capability. It really is the closest thing to a C17 you can probably get right now albeit downsized / mini version of.

I think it’s only real limitation would be around rough runways. But if it’s moving big loads, quickly, to anywhere with a decent runway or Antarctica, it would be gold.

If KHI can come to the party (read locked in) for a comprehensive / long term maintenance and parts contract...it may well be worth the squeeze for NZ being the lead export customer.

If the C-2 IS chosen, then the only logical choice for tactical is the C130J. A400M being excluded due to price vs. number of airframes ratio and on the expected budget available.

As pointed out by Ngati, although the C295 and C27J are great aircraft, I think their range, or lack thereof, precludes them from being genuinely considered for the tactical role. To clarify, if it was any of the roles that fall under tactical lift WITHIN NZ....then yes they can do it sweet as....BUT, if it’s a HADR role to a Pacific Island (with a meaningful load) to a rough strip....I do not think they are the airframes to do it. Again, I’m talking in respect of the C-2 being chosen. (Yes, I know / not forgetting the C295W has additional ASW capability.....but I don’t think that’s the way forward there. UAVs working with the P8’s is, IMHO, the way forward)

If the A400M is chosen for strategic, then yeah, maybe the smaller lift airframes....BUT you would need 3-4 A400M’s at least to make this viable....and the signs don’t look good around funding for that particular wish-list.

I’m still a big fan of NZ getting their mitts on a couple of CH47’s. It’s pie in the sky, I know, but for any of those local HADR missions, or moving smaller loads around the country, they would take a bit of load off the fixed wings assets and provide a bit of flexibility with getting into and out of places that aircraft can’t land. Side question...can a CH47 fit / land on an ANZAC frigate or HMNZS Aotearoa ...? (Thinking a Kaikoura earthquake type scenario with some vessels parked off the coast providing aid etc etc) I’m also picturing CH47’s moving 105mm artillery by sling load.....!!!....getting carried away now! I’ll stop now.