Royal New Zealand Air Force

[kiwipatriot69]

I agree,regards to Spains A400m and some C295 now and we should grab them slots soon as possible, before someone else does,given what happened with the C17 deal that we missed out on. Seeing how stretched we currently are, im sure we would find a use for them. :]

 

[kiwipatriot69]

Also wonder why they decided on a mix of Seasprites and NH90, maybe availability issues there, as 4 Nh90 would give significant lift and added deployment of stretcher bearers or personell the sprites cant.

 

[Gibbo]

Also wonder why they decided on a mix of Seasprites and NH90, maybe availability issues there, as 4 Nh90 would give significant lift and added deployment of stretcher bearers or personell the sprites cant.

With only 8 in the whole fleet sending 4 puts a lot of pressure on maintenance staff to keep half the fleet deployed. With the ADF sending some as well the need for 4 from NZ isn't quite so critical. There'll also be smaller jobs a Sprite can manage that doesn't need the NH90's size so the Sprites will certainly be kept busy.

To me the issue is more around AW109 availability - I would like to see a few additional AW109 along with a plan to deploy them in these scenarios to do the light rotary tasks.

 

[swerve]

I agree,regards to Spains A400m and some C295 now and we should grab them slots soon as possible, before someone else does,given what happened with the C17 deal that we missed out on. Seeing how stretched we currently are, im sure we would find a use for them. :]

The Spanish A400M slots have already gone. They're not there to be grabbed.

Because of the production delays, slots are short, & what the Spanish deferral has done is give Airbus the opportunity to meet delivery commitments to other customers. If they don't meet those commitments, they have to pay penalties.

The future slots now allotted to Spain are years away, & so far Spain isn't contractually allowed to give them to NZ or anyone else. The deferral has pushed the issue of how to reconcile the Spanish difficulty in paying for all its ordered A400M with its contractual obligation to do just that into the future. It hasn't freed the surplus Spanish A400M for sale. Yet.

 

[ngatimozart]

The deployment of NZDF aviation assets to Fiji on the Cyclone Winston HADR deployment is a set of firsts and lasts. It is the first operational deployment of the NH90 out of NZ and the last deployment of the SH2G(NZ) Seasprite before their apparent retirement in April. This is because the eight SH2G(I) Seasprites will become fully operational in April.

 

[hauritz]

The Spanish A400M slots have already gone. They're not there to be grabbed.

Because of the production delays, slots are short, & what the Spanish deferral has done is give Airbus the opportunity to meet delivery commitments to other customers. If they don't meet those commitments, they have to pay penalties.

The future slots now allotted to Spain are years away, & so far Spain isn't contractually allowed to give them to NZ or anyone else. The deferral has pushed the issue of how to reconcile the Spanish difficulty in paying for all its ordered A400M with its contractual obligation to do just that into the future. It hasn't freed the surplus Spanish A400M for sale. Yet.

There are other options to the A400M ... I quite like the look of the Kawasaki C-2.

 

[vonnoobie]

They should look at the Japanese C-2, idealy in conjunction with Australia but unlikely based on recent DWP.

In regards to the A400, While there are no slots open to be taken I recall Germany was planning to onsell 13 of there 53 orders, Do we know if they will be the most recent builds or ones from later in production?Time wise for NZ and to some extent cost wise (Usually cheaper buying equipment even unused brand new stuff then ordering it from scratch) would work out better then ordering any A400's directly from Airbus.

 

[rjtjrt]

........
In regards to the A400, While there are no slots open to be taken I recall Germany was planning to onsell 13 of there 53 orders, Do we know if they will be the most recent builds or ones from later in production?Time wise for NZ and to some extent cost wise (Usually cheaper buying equipment even unused brand new stuff then ordering it from scratch) would work out better then ordering any A400's directly from Airbus.

Is there a prospect that Airbus Military will act the same way with surplus A400 that Alena did re the C-27J that were at one stage surplus from USAF?
Alenia said they would refuse to support any of these aircraft in future if a non US nation bought them secondhand. Thus any new purchaser had to buy new from Alenia.

 

[RegR]

Is there a prospect that Airbus Military will act the same way with surplus A400 that Alena did re the C-27J that were at one stage surplus from USAF?
Alenia said they would refuse to support any of these aircraft in future if a non US nation bought them secondhand. Thus any new purchaser had to buy new from Alenia.

I don't think Airbus would do that, they have enough problems and A400 does not have a glowing reputation as it is. Would actually be in their favour to get them out and working, especially with non-euro countries, to prove their product and gain some traction.

Which is why I cannot understand Spains position, they either want to get rid of some completely to save costs, on sell to re-coup costs or delay to defer costs and not being 100% sure yet I do not see the logic in giving up their slots which at the moment could be valuable bargaining chips in their own right unless Airbus has paid/wiped as financial incentive.

 

[swerve]

Spain's position is completely logical when you consider all the facts.

The Spanish air force badly needs the A400Ms it's confirmed (just over half) & it needs them soon. So it is taking them.

The contract between Airbus & the original purchasers - including Spain - makes it very difficult to sell on the rest immediately. So Spain can't cash in the surplus (for now) aircraft.

The Spanish economy is now growing well, so there is a prospect of them becoming affordable later.

The air force would like those other aircraft, if the financial situation improves enough. It will have a use for them.

Airbus is happy to defer delivery of them, because of its production delays. It needs delivery slots in the near future to meet contracted for deliveries to existing customers.

So Spain & Airbus have made a mutually convenient arrangement. Spain is released from some of its contractual obligations (to take & pay for aircraft it's ordered, on schedule) in exchange for relinquishing slots to Airbus for deliveries that it might otherwise incur late delivery penalties on. The AF hopes it'll get the aircraft eventually, & for the finance ministry the problem has gone away for the time being.

 

[swerve]

... I recall Germany was planning to onsell 13 of there 53 orders, Do we know if they will be the most recent builds or ones from later in production?...

Later. Germany's Transalls are wearing out. It needs some of those A400M yesterday.

There are contract problems with selling them on. It may be that the German threat to enforce late delivery penalties may be a bargaining chip to get Airbus consent to sell on the 13 - but that only works if they're later ones. Difficult to sue for late delivery of aircraft you (very publicly) don't want.

 

[ngatimozart]

There is no real need to panic about getting early production slots for any RNZAF A400Ms if the NZG decides to go down that path. If they decide to go to a two tier fixed wing platform system then they can acquire, say the C295s earlier and have them embedded before bringing the A400M in. That also starts to take the pressure off the current C130s keeping their hours down, hence increasing their time in service. Though I agree that it will be cutting it fine. That's just one scenario.

 

[recce.k1]

Well folks I would imagine that none of this (the A400 situation) would give the NZG/NZDF much confidence in the product (and despite Airbus' public relations campaign in the NZ media last year)!

With the production delays resulting in the European air forces desperate to have early production slot A400's into service and Airbus wanting to avoid penalties etc, this won't (likely) produce anything meaningful for the NZG/NZDF in terms of gaining access to early production slots in the short term.

Recall the public discussions back in late 2014 was that the NZG/NZDF required a heavy lifter as soon as practically possible (which I read as within 2-3 years) to fulfil 757 strategic airlift deficiencies (in particular Antarctic support) hence the NZG chatter about a hastened C-17 purchase.

It also seems if the NZG were to commit to an A400 purchase "soon", unless something happens with some of these later production slots (as discussed in posts above) releasing some A400's earlier, it could potentially be up to another 10 years before the A400 reaches FOC with the NZDF etc. Which I thought was a "no-no" in terms of what was being said in public just over a year ago in relation to the delays of introducing a new and unproven helo design, the NH90, into NZDF service and avoiding repeating that again with the new and unproven A400 etc).

Whilst the upgraded C-130H's could potentially soldier on for another 10 years (mitigating some NZDF airlift headaches), again NZG/NZDF will still have a heavy airlift capability deficiency for the next several years (which for the Government/policy/NZDF outputs maybe somewhat "problematic" to say the least, for it is already thus so now)!

I guess it'll be interesting to see if any alternative heavy air lift options come into fruition in the short term depending on for example the USG's intentions on C-17 mothballing/reactivation, although perhaps there is a degree of uncertainty depending on the outcome of the next US Presidential election result?

 

[Todjaeger]

Whilst the upgraded C-130H's could potentially soldier on for another 10 years (mitigating some NZDF airlift headaches), again NZG/NZDF will still have a heavy airlift capability deficiency for the next several years (which for the Government/policy/NZDF outputs maybe somewhat "problematic" to say the least, for it is already thus so now)!

If memory serves (and I admit it might not...) only perhaps two of the SLEP'd C-130H's could serve until ~2025-ish. The ones most recently completed, basically. The others would hit their 10 year extension mark circa 2022. And there is basically no way that RNZAF airlift could suffice with a pair of C-130's, even with a pair of B757's also in service. Too few aircraft, for too great a demand IMO.

A 2nd tier airlifter could extend the time frame (or at least provide breathing room) for A400M to be brought into service. However, unless my numbers are significantly off, the RNZAF has about six years to get some sort of replacement for the C-130H's to start entering service. Given the amount of time needed for contracts to be signed, production completed, and support to be stood up for a new aircraft, that is not a significant amount of time. Whatever it is does not need to reach full replacement in six years, but at least some examples of a replacement do need to enter service.

 

[RegR]

There is no real need to panic about getting early production slots for any RNZAF A400Ms if the NZG decides to go down that path. If they decide to go to a two tier fixed wing platform system then they can acquire, say the C295s earlier and have them embedded before bringing the A400M in. That also starts to take the pressure off the current C130s keeping their hours down, hence increasing their time in service. Though I agree that it will be cutting it fine. That's just one scenario.

That's what you think they would be doing by now but no. These deficiancies with the current C130 fleet have been known for a very long time now, you could say the seed was planted way back when the andovers where retired without replacement and 40 Sqn had to take up the slack or when it was identified that we infact need 8 C130s to cover all tasks, to the actual timeframe (the true constant) ie we buy this at x, gives us y LOT therefore replace @z dependant.

It is already known the ageing frames are under pressure, inadequate and costs are rising and yet for some reason we still are waiting for a report to identify as much. The RAAF is actually easier to follow and gauge than our own airforce which for some reason is it seems to halt in place even when the problems, deficiancies and issues are known 5-10 years earlier, meanwhile said problem, deficiancy, issue is now so bad it actually stops entire tasks or diminishes ops to the point of dangerous and the thing is even if we do act 'soon' (which seems to be anywhere from 6 months - 2 years for us) we still have a lengthy aqquisition, build and IIS before we get anywhere near FOC to look forward to and all the while problems are just becoming worse. Now I know you can't rush these things but you also cannot keep on waiting for something magical to happen either.

I think it is a no brainer that we require a smaller lifter as this has already been identified to take over the tasks that even the current C130/B757 are overkill and inefficient for and it has already been identified the current C130 does not meet all our lift needs in itself and availability is an issue so a larger lift model is required anyway (only making the overkill inefficiency bigger) therefore IMO the smaller lifter should be somewhat a seperate project and infact already aqquired by now leaving us to still replace the 5 C130 and 2 B757 as per.

This would not only boost numbers but increase availability, releive pressure, save hours, provide options and tailor more efficiently to task and if introduced sooner rather than later cover the change over period and inevitable downtime with the new replacements somewhat better.

Hopefully for a proven and comparatively simple type such as C295 it could also follow in the T6 footsteps and be up and running in a relatively shorter timeframe as well (compared to say a A400 anyway).

 

[RegR]

Well folks I would imagine that none of this (the A400 situation) would give the NZG/NZDF much confidence in the product (and despite Airbus' public relations campaign in the NZ media last year)!

With the production delays resulting in the European air forces desperate to have early production slot A400's into service and Airbus wanting to avoid penalties etc, this won't (likely) produce anything meaningful for the NZG/NZDF in terms of gaining access to early production slots in the short term.

Recall the public discussions back in late 2014 was that the NZG/NZDF required a heavy lifter as soon as practically possible (which I read as within 2-3 years) to fulfil 757 strategic airlift deficiencies (in particular Antarctic support) hence the NZG chatter about a hastened C-17 purchase.

It also seems if the NZG were to commit to an A400 purchase "soon", unless something happens with some of these later production slots (as discussed in posts above) releasing some A400's earlier, it could potentially be up to another 10 years before the A400 reaches FOC with the NZDF etc. Which I thought was a "no-no" in terms of what was being said in public just over a year ago in relation to the delays of introducing a new and unproven helo design, the NH90, into NZDF service and avoiding repeating that again with the new and unproven A400 etc).

Whilst the upgraded C-130H's could potentially soldier on for another 10 years (mitigating some NZDF airlift headaches), again NZG/NZDF will still have a heavy airlift capability deficiency for the next several years (which for the Government/policy/NZDF outputs maybe somewhat "problematic" to say the least, for it is already thus so now)!

I guess it'll be interesting to see if any alternative heavy air lift options come into fruition in the short term depending on for example the USG's intentions on C-17 mothballing/reactivation, although perhaps there is a degree of uncertainty depending on the outcome of the next US Presidential election result?

TBH all our current viable options have some kind of 'issue' clause attached in some way or another be it time frame, maturity, suitability or availability along with the usuals such as costs, numbers etc so no one seems to stand out glaringly ahead just yet.

I actually don't see the B757 antarctic problem as even an issue anyway as it was just a nice to have option we tried, a politician had a scare (welcome to the military) and now it's a big deal. Worst case we just stop using the boeings to go south and revert back to what we have been doing since day dot, C130. We have other options in the US antarctic program on our back doorstep and to be brutally honest we should not be basing our military on a civilian project, again nice to have but...

I think Airbus would make an effort to see a non-euro country flying their military flagship, and whilst not large we have a knack for making things work so even if that means working a deal with say Germany or Spain for some of their (later) slots so as to not jump the queue as end of the day the frames still being paid for an balancing the books, regardless direct or middleman. Production speed is a company issue they need to solve to overcome delays and they have a big incentive to do so. Whilst they do need to catch up they also still need to make sales to make a profit so there are always options in buisness, just depends who with.

Whilst the C17s could be placed into storage that still does not mean they could be available for foreign use as it would be still easier to give to their reserves and be on short notice standby for quick recall rather than halfway around the world serving another nation. No doubt they would be the oldest earlier models anyway with the highest airpoints so would we actually want them? Could cost us even more than they already would in the long run anyway and we could end up back facing at least some of our current issues.

Either way at this stage I think we are going to be facing some hard decisions and possibly taking at least some chances (again) in order to replace the transport fleet adequately, nature of the beast, or we may just status quo with some new build Js and roll with the punches....

 

[swerve]

I think Airbus would make an effort to see a non-euro country flying their military flagship .

First delivery to Malaysia was a year ago, & it now has two. If you count Turkey as 'non-euro', there are two non-European countries flying five A400M.

 

[RegR]

First delivery to Malaysia was a year ago, & it now has two. If you count Turkey as 'non-euro', there are two non-European countries flying five A400M.

Yes I mean more to give it a bigger mix and exposure as it is essentially seen as a euro consourtium project. Even they consider Malaysia as their 'only' non euro customer so far.

All looks better to rival the US influence.

 

[Goknub]

The KC-390 is another aircraft NZ should keep an eye on. Being jet powered would be useful for long range flights and it looks somewhat ruggedized. Essentially a mini-C17. It's still in development so safer not to jump in just yet but worth a look as a C130 replacement.

 

[John Fedup]

The KC-390 is another aircraft NZ should keep an eye on. Being jet powered would be useful for long range flights and it looks somewhat ruggedized. Essentially a mini-C17. It's still in development so safer not to jump in just yet but worth a look as a C130 replacement.

Agreed, it looks to be an interesting alternative and Boeing will likely be involved in future marketing efforts.