Should the 2nd batch of Hunters be the AWD variant? 3 of each is not enough(eg Hobarts) but 4 of each seems ok.
Cost is getting ridiculous.
(8) Tier 1 > ASW 2034/36/38/40 to AWD 2042/44/46/48 (replacing Hobarts)
(12) Tier 2 > GPF 2030/32/34/36/37/39/40/42/43/45/46/48 (Boosted to 18 month drumbeat after the first 4)
Keep a larger fleet of GPFs in our region and let the Tier 1s travel the globe.
In regards to BAE, I think working with any yard requires an open check book. BAE are no different. They are all expensive. Mitsubishi will have the same themes as well.
I will also point out that the cost explosion on the Hunters was self inflicted. We did this to ourselves with the large number of changes to the baseline T26. I suspect if we had stayed with the T26 and followed the methodology now applied to the upgraded Mogami (no changes), then we would be seeing the Hunter hull not far behind Glasgow and for a much lower price. Food for thought.
I think we will get the six ASW configured Hunters come what may. The cut steel date for the first three is Jun 2024 (done), 2026 and then 2028. So the first unit from the second batch will not commence until 2030 on this cadence, with a contract for the second batch unlikely before 2028. One would hope this contact will have a noticable reduction in per hull pricing from the first batch.
The IIP said that a project to replace the Hobarts needs to have commenced by 2027 at the latest. So we will not see this before that timeframe. If it is to follow the ASW Hunters, then 2036 is the earliest a build slot will be available in Osborne, so a selection is unlikely before say 2030.
I would be of the view, that unless there are profound problems with the construction phase of the Hunters, that becomes unresolvable, the AAW verstion of the Hunter will be in the box seat. We will know how to make it, and it will be low risk. It will be good enough.
If we have learnt anything from the last several ship projects, it is that a new hull design is immensely expensive, high risk and time consuming to bring into production. Overseas builds have learnt the same thing, with the era of bespoke exquisit designs fading in popularity. Everybody has been burnt badly, nobody wants to go though this again.
The clear message from the USN is that they will keep building evolved ABs, and Virginias for a long time. I don't think the Brits will ever fund a type 83, they can't afford it and the T42 has spent most of its life alongside resolving build problems. I think they will instead modify the T26 hull as a cheaper low cost AAW solution (i.e follow us).
The Japanese will not build any more ASEVs (they are hideously expensive with an orphan class of radar), and instead go back to updated Mayas based on spy6. I doubt the the Japanese DDX will ever stand up, they will instead stay with Mayas and continually improved Mogamis.