Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

John Newman

The Bunker Group
A big open question (maybe the soon to be announced DSU and an eventual update of the NSP will provide some answers?), my question is:

“After spending many 10s of billions of dollars setting up an SSN manufacturing industry, how do we sustain it between the production of the original eight AUKUS SSNs and their eventual replacement class?”

Roll the clock back to the Attack class and the plan was to produce 12 x Attack boats.

Assuming the Attack boats had an approx 30 year service life, it would have been possible to produce four batches of ‘three’ with an approx 24mth drumbeat, possibly stretch it a little between each evolved batch, and by the time the 12th boat was completed you started on boat ‘13’ which would become the replacement for boat ‘1’ of the first batch.

This same approach doesn’t work with 8 x AUKUS SSNs, 24mth drumbeat doesn’t work, a 36mth drumbeat doesn’t work, you’d have to stretch it to ‘at least’ a 48mth drumbeat or so, that would be rather expensive and stupid to say the least.

The US of course produce large classes of SSNs, with SSBN construction sprinkled in between.

The UK just manages to do it by producing SSNs followed by SSBNs, and repeat that process as necessary.

Back here in Oz, how do we sustain that very very expensive infrastructure and workforce? After only eight boats, how?

As we and the UK will be jointly producing the AUKUS class clearly the production process has to be reasonably ‘aligned’ with each other, they of course have the luxury of starting on SSBNs as their ‘gap filler’.

One thing I didn’t mention is the service life of the AUKUS boats, from what I understand the PWR3 reactor has a 30 year service, give or take.

What are some possible solutions?

We could produce more than eight SSNs (let’s not forget the previous Morrison LNP Government used the words ‘at least eight’ subs).

Would it be viable to add a ninth or even a tenth boat? Would that allow for sustainment of the industry?

Can we ‘link’ into the UK supply chain? Can we produce sections or modules for future UK SSBNs to fill the gap?

And/or in those ‘lean’ years, can we plug into the US SSN and SSBN supply chain?


I’m all for SSNs for the RAN, and I’m all for as much local manufacture and ultimately assembly as is possible, but how do we sustain the manufacture process? How do we avoid a future SSN ‘Valley of Death’ situation?

How???
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Assuming a 36 month drum beat with offset production of sections for the UK to cover the nuclear sections they sell us. With the US and UK production contraints i imaging Australia will be involved in the supply chain for the US and UK well before any steel is cut for the AUKUS SSNs.
 
Based on the "Artist impression" released (can't find another source for it though) this suggests a completely new waterfront for the SSN yard including a large sychrolift.

Accepting that this is early renderings, are they trying to depict a drydock or sub pens on the right (north) side?

New artist impressions released by the federal government show the new shipyard wrapping around the Mutton Cove Conservation Reserve.

Ref: Osborne shipyard to triple in size for AUKUS nuclear submarines (March 20, 2023)
 

John Newman

The Bunker Group
Assuming a 36 month drum beat with offset production of sections for the UK to cover the nuclear sections they sell us. With the US and UK production contraints i imaging Australia will be involved in the supply chain for the US and UK well before any steel is cut for the AUKUS SSNs.
A 24mth drumbeat delivers eight boats over a period of 14 years (year 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14) - 16 years short of a 30 year service life replacement cycle.

A 36mth drumbeat delivers eight boats over a period of 21 years (year 0, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21) - 9 years short of a 30 year service life replacement cycle.

A lot of blank years to fill to ensure we retain a stable skilled and expensive workforce.

The thing I really don’t like about a 36mth drumbeat is that it is still way short of a 30 year ‘turnover’ period between one class to the next, it’s almost like a Government sponsored/paid ‘go slow’, getting paid to be unproductive.

It’s a $hitload of extra taxpayer dollars required to produce the same amount of boats had the drumbeat been 24mths.

Still lots of questions, not many answers.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
36 months gives 24 years unless you are discounted the build time for the first of class. You will also have an extended build time between batches, let alone classes as the new design is brough into production, then certified and brought into service. Over such an extended period its more likely to be 5 years 3, 3, 3, 5, 3,3,3,5 etc. which is twenty eight years for eight and thirty three for nine, i.e. the replacement for boat 1. Also when introducing a new class it pays to have some fat in the current fleet to account for delays in the new boats or the need to speed up production.

Just imajine if the ANZACs or Colins were as flimsy as the Armadales? We would literally only have the Hobarts left.
 

SD67

Member
I suspect the key will be integration with the UK supply chain. The MOD here have announced Barrow is scaling up from 10,000 to 17,000 but that may be challenging in practice. The town is a hell hole and difficult to get to. If the first two Adelaide builds go well who knows Osborne may well be supplying modules to Barrow before long. It would make sense to have 19 units of a certain module built in one place.
In the UK BAE Barrow have already been subbing considerable work out on boats 5 to 7, Cammell Laird in Merseyside building large non pressre components as below :

Another point - the SSBNs are both a blessing and a curse. If there's any slippage at all at Barrow the SSBNs will always take precedence. Again - not beyond the realms of possibility that Adelaide would be called upon
 
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Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
I suspect the key will be integration with the UK supply chain. The MOD here have announced Barrow is scaling up from 10,000 to 17,000 but that may be challenging in practice. The town is a hell hole and difficult to get to.
Not sure I'd agree that BAE won't be able to increase the size of the workforce at Barrow, so long as they pay a fair wage I think they'll hit the numbers.

It's not a convenient town to get to if you live far away, but the town itself and areas nearby (Lake District) aren't terrible places to live. State schools all rated "Good" by Ofsted (not an easy achievement) so could attract families or convince young couples to stay. You can also get to Barrow in about an hour from Lancaster and Kendall by car, not an unreasonable journey.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
A 24mth drumbeat delivers eight boats over a period of 14 years (year 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14) - 16 years short of a 30 year service life replacement cycle.

A 36mth drumbeat delivers eight boats over a period of 21 years (year 0, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21) - 9 years short of a 30 year service life replacement cycle.

A lot of blank years to fill to ensure we retain a stable skilled and expensive workforce.

The thing I really don’t like about a 36mth drumbeat is that it is still way short of a 30 year ‘turnover’ period between one class to the next, it’s almost like a Government sponsored/paid ‘go slow’, getting paid to be unproductive.

It’s a $hitload of extra taxpayer dollars required to produce the same amount of boats had the drumbeat been 24mths.

Still lots of questions, not many answers.
Perhaps the UK and Australia should consider a SSGN build to keep the skilled workforce intact. Dreadnought would be a good starting point for an AUKUS SSGN.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
From 2001 to 2021 only four Astute class submarines have been completed to active duty with one now presently on sea trials , with a new larger class is the 36 months drumbeat optimistic?
 

Wombat000

Active Member
I feel that the era of ‘valleys of death’ shipbuilding inertia has past.

Supposedly there is already building momentum around a continuous ship building program, which coincidentally we haven’t heard much of recently.
- Perhaps that’s to be mentioned specifically in the upcoming Defence Review, or it’s considered a sealed deal in principle already?

Re the Subs, I feel that we will be building subsequent iterations in lockstep with the other AUKUS partners, the synergies of combined efforts and economies of scale motivating factors, tripartite alliances n’all.

Of course, we can only speculate logics so far in the future.
Seems awfully stupid and narrow minded to go to such efforts just for ~ 8 boats.
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
From 2001 to 2021 only four Astute class submarines have been completed to active duty with one now presently on sea trials , with a new larger class is the 36 months drumbeat optimistic?
The UK keeps the drumbeat deliberately slow or they would keep running into a Valley of Death. They have a fleet of only 11 Subs, they need to make the transition from building SSNs to SSBNs and then back to SSNs as smooth as possible. They need to ensure they have at least 1 Sub under construction at all times.
 

SD67

Member
Not sure I'd agree that BAE won't be able to increase the size of the workforce at Barrow, so long as they pay a fair wage I think they'll hit the numbers.

It's not a convenient town to get to if you live far away, but the town itself and areas nearby (Lake District) aren't terrible places to live. State schools all rated "Good" by Ofsted (not an easy achievement) so could attract families or convince young couples to stay. You can also get to Barrow in about an hour from Lancaster and Kendall by car, not an unreasonable journey.
Yes the "relocate to the Lake district" is the draw for manager level people but for welders and sparkies not so much unless you've just inherited a million
Lancaster to Barrow is 1 hr ish by current rail services so in practice a total 3+ hr commute each day. The station in Barrow is 20 mins power walk from the site. Cabs are limited.
Ofsted "Good" means well you know your kid won't get stabbed.
Sorry to be negative but I had these conversations
 

StobieWan

Super Moderator
Staff member
Just had a look and properties in Barrow seem to run down to some fairly reasonable prices - I'm seeing 3 bed terraces for about 180K which is about £140 cheaper than my area for instance. Yes, the lakes, super expensive, bring a couple of million to guarantee satisfaction but BIF doesn't look half bad at a glance ?
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
A 24mth drumbeat delivers eight boats over a period of 14 years (year 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14) - 16 years short of a 30 year service life replacement cycle.

A 36mth drumbeat delivers eight boats over a period of 21 years (year 0, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21) - 9 years short of a 30 year service life replacement cycle.

A lot of blank years to fill to ensure we retain a stable skilled and expensive workforce.

The thing I really don’t like about a 36mth drumbeat is that it is still way short of a 30 year ‘turnover’ period between one class to the next, it’s almost like a Government sponsored/paid ‘go slow’, getting paid to be unproductive.

It’s a $hitload of extra taxpayer dollars required to produce the same amount of boats had the drumbeat been 24mths.

Still lots of questions, not many answers.
It also strikes me that ongoing production of SSNs is entirely different to ongoing production of conventional vessels. In the case of something like the Hunter class the plan is to replace the ships around halfway through their hull life saving the expense of a midlife refit.

That isn’t practical for Australia’s new submarines considering the expensive and complex decommissioning process involved with nuclear powered vessels. You would want to keep these boats in service as long as you can.

Of course you also need to consider the enormous timeframes involved here. It is quite possible that AUKUS class will be Australia’s last class of nuclear powered manned submarine. Making predictions on what will replace them going into the 2060s is nigh on impossible. Could be looking at fusion powered vessels by that time.
 
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