Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

Stampede

Well-Known Member
Project SEA 2200 (JSS project) that will replace Choules (plus an additional ship), officially kicks of in 2025-26, not too far away, from the start of the project at least.

Why would the Government decide, or plan, to pull Choules out of service in the near future for a couple of years to add a hangar?

It doesn’t make sense (to me at least), to undertake such a major upgrade when Choules is possibly entering its last 10 or so years of its service life.
Fair question.
Depends on the time frame for the JSS project.
The time and cost to construct a hanger
Plus need.

My personal opinion is the more aviation you can get to sea the better.
Navy will have 36 Seahawks later this decade

I would speculate that HMAS Choules has potential space for a hanger to accommodate 2 to 3 aircraft and that such a structure would not be to problematic, expensive or time consuming to add.
The Brits intend to do the same on one of their Bay Class so I'd guess the engineering is feasible.

The JSS Project looks a very promising concept; but at this stage I cannot realistically see a commissioned JSS ship till the late 30's.

If anything I'd like the Brits to sell us another Bay Class to add to the fleet.

Cheers S
 

John Newman

The Bunker Group
Fair question.
Depends on the time frame for the JSS project.
.....

The JSS Project looks a very promising concept; but at this stage I cannot realistically see a commissioned JSS ship till the late 30's.
The JSS project is not a ‘promising concept’, it’s a ‘real’ project, with a ‘real’ budget allocation and a ‘real’ timeframe:


The PDF factsheet above is only six months old, you can clearly see the project timeframe, 2026-2034, and you can clearly see the budget allocation, $5.1b - $7.7b.

So how exactly does that mean a ship won’t be commissioned until the late 2030s?
 

alexsa

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The JSS project is not a ‘promising concept’, it’s a ‘real’ project, with a ‘real’ budget allocation and a ‘real’ timeframe:


The PDF factsheet above is only six months old, you can clearly see the project timeframe, 2026-2034, and you can clearly see the budget allocation, $5.1b - $7.7b.

So how exactly does that mean a ship won’t be commissioned until the late 2030s?
I hope it is done expeditiously but I don't think you will see Choules go until the second ship is ready. Choules is essential mid-life being taking into service in 2006 (in the RFA). The vessel offers quite a bit of capability and adding a hanger will have some value and would appear to be worth the investment. The RAN did have a 'tent' hanger for the vessel but I am not sure if that remains in service.
 

TScott

Member
Ok perhaps there is no shortage of physicists, and the federal government, state government, the US, Canada, UK are all merely deluded. That in Australia 45% of teachers teaching physics are unqualified to do so.

It takes a long time to create a physics graduate. Very few leave with just a graduate degree.
For example, the 2002 3rd year cohort of 66 students at Sydney uni, counted 2 degree graduates in that year. (Australian Physics Bachelors and Honours graduates in industry: Where are they? How ell prepared are they? Sharma and ) Typically less than 20% of graduates go into the workforce, 80% continue with further study.

View attachment 49281

Should be easy.
Thanks.

I never questioned the shortage of physics grads getting around, I questioned the scale at which you described it. I'm also not sure what point you are trying to make regarding teacher shortages vs advanced physics majors. Most professionals with those degrees aren't looking to teach high school physics..... If I apply the same theory to all teachers across every subject in Australia, we have a national crisis, as 90% of teachers don't hold specialised degree's in what they are teaching....

In regards to your second point, that's not really what you said, is it? You implied that Physics graduates of any description number about 50-100 between ALL universities for the last 20 YEARS to the point you could fit their names on an A4 sheet of paper.

Had you mentioned postgrad degree's it may have made more sense (even then, a gross overexageration), you're article even states that in 2005 there was 915 POSTGRAD students studying physics(not accounting for those studying Physics major undergrade courses). What size font are you using for this A4 sheet of paper?

Based on your article there's probably been 10,000+ undergrad and postgrad physics majors in the time frame you first described.
 

CJR

Active Member
"The entire number of physics graduates, annually from all universities in Australia is so small you could fit the last 20 years of graduates onto a single A4 page"
If ya make the font small enough you can fit (almost) anything on a single A4 page.
;)

But yeah, that does seem like some blatant hyperbole. Can't find up to date physics specific data (got figures for the 2000s that give about 400-450 physics grads BSc to PhD inclusive per year, with somewhere around 700-900 people doing 3rd year physics units per year for the same time period, of cause, some of those will not be doing physics majors but instead chem, eng, etc. with physics on the side) but looking at Department of Education, Skills and Employment Bachelor level graduations in natural or physical sciences in 2020 were 20,765 (of which 16,689 were Aussies and 4,076 overseas students)... That up from 14,223 in 2010. So, science grads, in general, have been trending up by 50% over the last decade
 

SavageDentures

New Member
Here is an interesting article on how Australia could dip its toe into the Nuclear Sub pond within the next few years- Forbes article
Everybody Wins If Australia Gets ‘New’ Los Angeles Class Subs ASAP by Craig Hooper Sep 20, 2021 . The upshot is we lease a couple of LA class attack subs that still have a few miles on the clock till we get our own new builds. Makes sense we we co-crew leased US subs to get our knowledge base up on Nukes.
PS Don't shoot the messenger !

Everybody Wins If Australia Gets ‘New’ Los Angeles Class Subs ASAP
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
Here is an interesting article on how Australia could dip its toe into the Nuclear Sub pond within the next few years- Forbes article
Everybody Wins If Australia Gets ‘New’ Los Angeles Class Subs ASAP by Craig Hooper Sep 20, 2021 . The upshot is we lease a couple of LA class attack subs that still have a few miles on the clock till we get our own new builds. Makes sense we we co-crew leased US subs to get our knowledge base up on Nukes.
PS Don't shoot the messenger !

Everybody Wins If Australia Gets ‘New’ Los Angeles Class Subs ASAP
We need to be patient and wait to see what the TF comes out with, if Dutton can be believed then they are running moths ahead of schedule, we may even get an announcement this year. There are still about 26 LAs in commission the youngest of which is the same age as HMAS Collins, so any LAs we got would have seen their 35th Birthday and in need of a refit.
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
Marcus Hellyer still believes that the Hunters are only getting 32 VLS as stated in his latest ASPI article - I’d like to know if he has access to recently updated info, or relying on old information.

ASPI 11May22 RAN Facing Aging Capabilities
Probably guessing like the rest of us and 32 Cells is probably as good a guess as any. At this stage if you were to run a betting book on how many Cells the Hunters were getting, then 32 would be favourite.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
I never questioned the shortage of physics grads getting around, I questioned the scale at which you described it. I'm also not sure what point you are trying to make regarding teacher shortages vs advanced physics majors. Most professionals with those degrees aren't looking to teach high school physics..... If I apply the same theory to all teachers across every subject in Australia, we have a national crisis, as 90% of teachers don't hold specialised degree's in what they are teaching....

In regards to your second point, that's not really what you said, is it? You implied that Physics graduates of any description number about 50-100 between ALL universities for the last 20 YEARS to the point you could fit their names on an A4 sheet of paper.

Had you mentioned postgrad degree's it may have made more sense (even then, a gross over exageration), you're article even states that in 2005 there was 915 POSTGRAD students studying physics(not accounting for those studying Physics major undergrad courses). What size font are you using for this A4 sheet of paper?
I was being a tad flippant. But my point is very real.
  • There are more doctoral graduates in physics per year than undergraduate that leave for the workforce. Its probably one of the only fields where that is the case. So if the RAN is targeting people, they will be targeting PhD graduates. Mostly internationals with no citizenship and mostly from China, Iran, India, etc. Trundle along to the next Australian Institute of Physics conference and this is clearly evident. Local students, and the type intending to work with defence aren't thick on the ground. Most of the defence doctorial or below related projects are ex-ADF people retraining. Most of these aren't looking to get back into uniform and into a metal box with a reactor.
  • The post graduate numbers are further inflated by those studying the physics retaining course at UNSW (and elsewhere). Which is a graduate certificate (0.5 year) for high school teachers with non physics backgrounds. It is very much watered down taking units only for teachers, nuclear science isn't mentioned. Handbook
  • Attracting any people to the submariner force has always been difficult. Even doubling the size of the conventional forces was seen by many well informed experts as a very challenging stretch goal.
  • Talented engineering and physics graduates can easily walk into high paying jobs in a dozens fields. Engineering, Teaching. But also actuarial, big data, intelligence, semiconductors, quantum computing, network design and administration, etc. You will be competing with alphabet, AWS, etc. As well as passion project areas like astronomy and particle physics or solar. Nuclear doesn't offer those opportunities in this country.
  • Nuclear is a very specific split from Engineering/Physics. Most Australian engineering courses are extremely weak on chemistry and material science. Particularly those that mostly feed civil engineering which tends to be by far the biggest field of engineering in Australia. But it also falls out of the field of chemistry, with it only at best playing a background. This makes sense, why hog curriculum time with something that doesn't exist in Australia. Those that do go into it, are often planning to move overseas.
No, I don't think $30k is going to solve the problem. Sure its a start.
This idea that the RAN will quickly flooded with nuclear qualified submariners is, perhaps, ambitious. Particularly given the issues existing submariners face in creation, retention etc.
I have concerns as the Collins age, about what that does to retention. The transition between Collins and the SSN is also going to be problematic.

Its fixable. But without the people, these subs are going nowhere. IMO I think people in senior places are still sceptical about nuclear subs.

But I've made my argument. I had it out face to face with the presidents of Engineers Australia and the Australian Institute of Physics and politicians. Problems are usually worse now, not better. People move on but legacies and fall out continue. Many people don't see or don't understand the issue.

The RAN/ADF has had some terrible education and training failures.

Skills shortage is a real thing particularly at trade levels. This came out yesterday from the ABC.
 

Rock the kasbah

Active Member
I was being a tad flippant. But my point is very real.
  • There are more doctoral graduates in physics per year than undergraduate that leave for the workforce. Its probably one of the only fields where that is the case. So if the RAN is targeting people, they will be targeting PhD graduates. Mostly internationals with no citizenship and mostly from China, Iran, India, etc. Trundle along to the next Australian Institute of Physics conference and this is clearly evident. Local students, and the type intending to work with defence aren't thick on the ground. Most of the defence doctorial or below related projects are ex-ADF people retraining. Most of these aren't looking to get back into uniform and into a metal box with a reactor.
  • The post graduate numbers are further inflated by those studying the physics retaining course at UNSW (and elsewhere). Which is a graduate certificate (0.5 year) for high school teachers with non physics backgrounds. It is very much watered down taking units only for teachers, nuclear science isn't mentioned. Handbook
  • Attracting any people to the submariner force has always been difficult. Even doubling the size of the conventional forces was seen by many well informed experts as a very challenging stretch goal.
  • Talented engineering and physics graduates can easily walk into high paying jobs in a dozens fields. Engineering, Teaching. But also actuarial, big data, intelligence, semiconductors, quantum computing, network design and administration, etc. You will be competing with alphabet, AWS, etc. As well as passion project areas like astronomy and particle physics or solar. Nuclear doesn't offer those opportunities in this country.
  • Nuclear is a very specific split from Engineering/Physics. Most Australian engineering courses are extremely weak on chemistry and material science. Particularly those that mostly feed civil engineering which tends to be by far the biggest field of engineering in Australia. But it also falls out of the field of chemistry, with it only at best playing a background. This makes sense, why hog curriculum time with something that doesn't exist in Australia. Those that do go into it, are often planning to move overseas.
No, I don't think $30k is going to solve the problem. Sure its a start.
This idea that the RAN will quickly flooded with nuclear qualified submariners is, perhaps, ambitious. Particularly given the issues existing submariners face in creation, retention etc.
I have concerns as the Collins age, about what that does to retention. The transition between Collins and the SSN is also going to be problematic.

Its fixable. But without the people, these subs are going nowhere. IMO I think people in senior places are still sceptical about nuclear subs.

But I've made my argument. I had it out face to face with the presidents of Engineers Australia and the Australian Institute of Physics and politicians. Problems are usually worse now, not better. People move on but legacies and fall out continue. Many people don't see or don't understand the issue.

The RAN/ADF has had some terrible education and training failures.

Skills shortage is a real thing particularly at trade levels. This came out yesterday from the ABC.
I had just finished reading your conversation
And saw this xl uav? Story
I wonder if our nukes may be unmanned
 

John Newman

The Bunker Group
I wonder if our nukes may be unmanned
Unmanned nuclear submarines wondering around the oceans all on their own? Seriously?

That’s a disaster waiting to happen.

What happens if something goes wrong and an unfriendly neighbour gets there first and takes possession of a nuclear reactor filled with weapons grade material?

No, never, never in a million years.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Xavier on Day 1 Indo Pacific 2022. Both US and UK shown Virginia and Astute models. However according to Xavier none of them willing to talk officialy to media yet. Thus in here still no comfirmation on potential RAN Nuclear Submarine choices.

While RAN Chief also talk on discussion with NG and French. However seems it is more on finding sollutions on previous attack class project. At least that's what I got on the interview.
 

aussienscale

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro

Xavier on Day 1 Indo Pacific 2022. Both US and UK shown Virginia and Astute models. However according to Xavier none of them willing to talk officialy to media yet. Thus in here still no comfirmation on potential RAN Nuclear Submarine choices.

While RAN Chief also talk on discussion with NG and French. However seems it is more on finding sollutions on previous attack class project. At least that's what I got on the interview.
Just finished watching, a few interesting things in there:

Firstly that the LOTE program for the Collins Class boats will be done in the timeframe of an FCD, so 2 years for each boat ! Would be interesting to see what we are actually doing for the LOTE ?

I know a lot of that would be what we would normally do and replace during a normal FCD, but 2 years (planned) is pretty good going !

Secondly, where the hell did Speartooth come from :oops: did I miss something or did they keep that one nice and quiet or what !! impressive they are at prototype stage !!


And finally the OCIUS USV's look like some potential as well, sounds like some good backing there to, the fact that Thales has miniaturised their towed sonar arrays speaks volumes for them to go through that development path. Other potential uses as well, they said they have 4 operating out of Broome on Border Force "Applications"


Not bad for day one
 

Rock the kasbah

Active Member
Unmanned nuclear submarines wondering around the oceans all on their own? Seriously?

That’s a disaster waiting to happen.

What happens if something goes wrong and an unfriendly neighbour gets there first and takes possession of a nuclear reactor filled with weapons grade material?

No, never, never in a million years.
I did not mean loose nuclear stuff cruising all on there own.
What about if the crew was based in Oz and just video gaming like what happens with the aerial drone pilots out of Vegas?
Those things wouldn't have to surface for how long?
I have no idea but it does make one think
 

DDG38

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I did not mean loose nuclear stuff cruising all on there own.
What about if the crew was based in Oz and just video gaming like what happens with the aerial drone pilots out of Vegas?
Those things wouldn't have to surface for how long?
I have no idea but it does make one think
Go back and read through this thread WRT discussions about the problems of long range communications with submarines. Data links and AI aren't even remotely close to being there yet. Vastly more complicated than a video game, even for drone pilots.
 

oldsig127

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I did not mean loose nuclear stuff cruising all on there own.
What about if the crew was based in Oz and just video gaming like what happens with the aerial drone pilots out of Vegas?
Those things wouldn't have to surface for how long?
I have no idea but it does make one think
I think you underestimate the difficulty of communicating with the drone without latency issues....or outright losses of signal, even when things are operating to design.

oldsig
 

Going Boeing

Well-Known Member
Firstly that the LOTE program for the Collins Class boats will be done in the timeframe of an FCD, so 2 years for each boat ! Would be interesting to see what we are actually doing for the LOTE ?
The following has been published in a few articles:
Collins boats upgraded under the planned Life-of-Type Extension (LOTE) program will be fitted with German MTU 4000-series diesel engines, Jeumont and Schneider combined systems with a permanent magnet AC motor, and Wartsila Euroatlas power conversion and distribution systems. The MTU diesels will replace the original Swedish Hedemora diesel engines. These components were planned to be installed on the Attack class.

I also read that the batteries will be replaced/upgraded and, as part of package B, they are looking at replacing the periscopes with optronic masts.

Australian Defence Collins Class LOTE

Australian Defence Penske MTU4000
 
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I did not mean loose nuclear stuff cruising all on there own.
What about if the crew was based in Oz and just video gaming like what happens with the aerial drone pilots out of Vegas?
Those things wouldn't have to surface for how long?
I have no idea but it does make one think
I agree with @John Newman, no rational nation will have weapons grade plutonium out there unattended and unsecured from the broad range of potential threats.

I find the seeming rush of UUV JV’s and projects and Australia’s interest in them fantastic. Not every vessel needs to be ultra long range or armed. These options become a force multiplier for their sensory suites, expedited build times, lower cost meaning Australia can look at increased volume, and unmanned nature.

They will become a distraction and complication for potential adversaries as a potential nearby UUV may or may not present a threat. There potential for volume compliments our massive region. In no way to replace SSN but to compliment through their sweep, hydrographic data, sonar potential, fire support and intelligence gathering.

“Quantity has a quality all of its own”.
 

Stampede

Well-Known Member
The JSS project is not a ‘promising concept’, it’s a ‘real’ project, with a ‘real’ budget allocation and a ‘real’ timeframe:


The PDF factsheet above is only six months old, you can clearly see the project timeframe, 2026-2034, and you can clearly see the budget allocation, $5.1b - $7.7b.

So how exactly does that mean a ship won’t be commissioned until the late 2030s?
Short answer, gut feeling.
Excuse the negativity.

Like any long term project, a lot can happen.

I very much like the JSS concept and as such can see these flexible ships as a good fit for the ADF.
I also like the fact we are building capacity to construct ships of such a size within Australia.

However a lot needs to happen.

I take these are to be built in the new yard at Henderson WA.

Work on this yard will start shortly with completion in 2028.
To build these big ships, this needs to go as planned!


In the black and white of the Plan, the JSS project is from 2026 to 34.
Past history of ship building suggests this is a best case scenario!!!!

Add in the demands of the Submarine and Hunter build, plus the Arafura Class, Survey, MCM and other smaller maritime defence projects then you are really ramping up a lot of work.
This will be a big national challenge
Are we ready for this rate of effort.

So if we have the yard and the work force,how long does it take to build a big ship, starting in the late 20's and get it in the water, trialed and tested and then commissioned.

2034?

I hope I'm wrong, but I cannot realistically see it happening.
Hence late 30's


Regards S

PS - Like ALEXA I hope HMAS Choules is replaced with the second JSS ship, not the first.
If so, HMAS Choules will be in service for many years to come and as such suggest we should capitalize on her potential.
 
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