Red Sea and the Houthis threat

[Scott Elaurant]

6 modern frigates (3 FREMM, 3 modern MEKO A200EN light in service plus 1 launched December 2023), 6 antique frigates (built 1971-early 1980s).
4 modern Gowind & 3 antique corvettes.
4 mid-1980s Type 033 (improved Romeo) & 4 modern Type 209/1400

Plus an assortment of missile boats & so on. Should be able to do something useful if deployed.

4. I get a little nervous when we underestimate a party that has been at war for a long time.

Absolutely!

I share the view that it is reasonable to expect Egypt to shoulder the bulk of the defence burden in the Red Sea. Quite simply, Egypt get all the revenue from Suez Canal shipping use.

I have also come to question claims that Red Sea trade is vital to Australia's national interest. The bulk of Australia's trade is with Indo-Pacific countries. The combined total of all Australian imports from EU countries was >15% of the total in 2022. Exports from Australia to the EU were approximately 5% of Australian exports. Most grain and ore exports by bulk carrier went via the Cape of Good Hope (Cape size vessels). See

https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/australias-goods-and-services-by-top-15-partners-2022.pdf

I'm not saying protecting trade is not important to Australia; it obviously is. However compared to protecting trade routes to Australia's main Asian trading partners, protecting sea lanes to Europe via the Red Sea is a second order issue for us in economic terms.

 

[Redlands18]

U.S. and Royal Navy warships and jets repel major Houthi attack - Naval News
US and UK forces have repelled a major Houthi strike on commercial shipping, FA-18s from the Eisenhower as well as the DDGs USS Gravely, USS Laboon, USS Mason and HMS Diamond shot down 1 anti-ship ballistic missile, 2 anti-ship cruise missiles and 18 OWA UAVs on 10 Jan, this is the 26th Houthi attack since 19 Nov.

 

[Feanor]

U.S. and Royal Navy warships and jets repel major Houthi attack - Naval News
US and UK forces have repelled a major Houthi strike on commercial shipping, FA-18s from the Eisenhower as well as the DDGs USS Gravely, USS Laboon, USS Mason and HMS Diamond shot down 1 anti-ship ballistic missile, 2 anti-ship cruise missiles and 18 OWA UAVs on 10 Jan, this is the 26th Houthi attack since 19 Nov.

It appears the party has started. The US and UK have struck multiple (Russian sources report 12) Houthi targets inside Yemen. Yemen is responding with their own missile and UAV strikes, though no doubt far less damaging ones. Reportedly UK Typhoons are operating against Yemen out of Cyprus.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

⚔️Взрывы в Ходейде и Сане: корабли и самолеты США и Британии наносят удары по объектам поддерживаемых Ираном хуситов в Йемене Сана - столица Йемена, Ходейда - один из главных портов страна. Заявляется, что это ответ на атаки хуситов на корабли в Красном море и Аденском заливе: под ударом более...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Представитель Пентагона: США и Британия атаковали 10 целей в Йемене В Сети множество фейковых фото и видео, многие из которых старые. Публикуем те, что сейчас публикуют арабские каналы, сообщая, что эти кадры свежие. Хуситы заявляют, что нанесли удар по вражеским кораблям. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Атакованы более 12 целей: склады боеприпасов, центры подготовки, мест хранения и запуска ракет и системы ПВО Об этом СМИ заявили чиновники США. ▪️«Вооруженные силы Йемена отвечают силой, нанося удары по американо-британским военным кораблям в Красном море», - заявил член политического офиса...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

⚔️Ожидается, что президент США Джо Байден сделает заявление после ударов по объектам хуситов в Йемене, - The Times ▪️Премьер Британии Сунак одобрил воздушные удары по хуситам в Йемене ▪️Заявление иракских сил сопротивления: при нападении на Йемен мы атакуем американские военные базы всей мощью...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Хуситы публикуют видео пуска баллистических ракет по врагу ▪️Некоторые арабские СМИ заявили, что есть попадания по кораблю США. Но подтверждений этой информации нет. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Colonelcassad

Британские "Тайфуны" с авиабазы Акротири на Кипре наносившие удары по Йемену.

t.me

 

[Larry_L]

The coalition put out a joint statement on the response. Naturally it is a measured response, and will require several follow up strikes. Iran my yet step too heavily on someones toes requiring a strike as well.

Joint Statement from the Governments of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, United Kingdom, and the United States | The White House

Recognizing the broad consensus as expressed by 44 countries around the world on December 19, 2023, as well as the statement by the UN Security Council on December 1, 2023, condemning Houthi attacks against merchant and commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea, our governments issued a joint...

www.whitehouse.gov

Biden also had his say. Now he can let the military do their job, hopefully with minimal interference.

Statement from President Joe Biden on Coalition Strikes in Houthi-Controlled Areas in Yemen | The White House

Today, at my direction, U.S. military forces—together with the United Kingdom and with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands—successfully conducted strikes against a number of targets in Yemen used by Houthi rebels to endanger freedom of navigation in one of the world’s...

www.whitehouse.gov

 

[Feanor]

Alleged maps of the strikes on the Houthis. It remains to be seen where things go form here, but I can't imagine the Houthis will be willing to back down. While undoubtedly US strikes will be more effective then Saudi ones, the Houthis are used to living under hostile airstrikes. In some respects these strikes might be easier to weather since it's unlikely the US will be willing to intentionally target civilian infrastructure the way the Saudis did.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Карта нанесенных США и Британией авиаударов по Йемену.

t.me

 

[Vivendi]

Why are the Houthis attacking civilian ships? They say this is "to support Hamas". Is that the real reason? I wonder...

To me it seems this is a deliberate attempt at provoking the US and allies into doing exactly what they are doing now: bombing Yemen in a futile attempt to make the attacks on civilian ships stop. Also, I don't think the Houthis are doing this on their own initiative. Iran is the main suspect, but are they the only ones instigating this? Russia clearly have a strong interest in any kind of trouble that can draw attention and military resources away from Europe. This does not mean they are actively involved of course.

Where is China in all of this? Although China has support UN resolutions classifying the Houthis as a terrorist organization China has been remarkably silent regarding the Houthi attacks on civilian ships after the October 7 terrorist attack in Israel in spite of the increased costs also to China. Perhaps this is simply due to the Chinese principle of "non-interference". Or could there be something more nefarious at play? China (and Russia of course) abstained from a UN vote condemning the attacks. China, Russia abstain as UN Security Council adopts resolution condemning Houthi attacks - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East

Ships are now signaling "all Chinese crew" when passing Yemen, to avoid Houthi attacks. It will be interesting to see if this is effective in avoiding attacks. Ships Advertise Chinese Links to Avoid Houthi Attack in Red Sea - Bloomberg

 

[Feanor]

Why are the Houthis attacking civilian ships? They say this is "to support Hamas". Is that the real reason? I wonder...

To me it seems this is a deliberate attempt at provoking the US and allies into doing exactly what they are doing now: bombing Yemen in a futile attempt to make the attacks on civilian ships stop. Also, I don't think the Houthis are doing this on their own initiative. Iran is the main suspect, but are they the only ones instigating this? Russia clearly have a strong interest in any kind of trouble that can draw attention and military resources away from Europe. This does not mean they are actively involved of course.

Where is China in all of this? Although China has support UN resolutions classifying the Houthis as a terrorist organization China has been remarkably silent regarding the Houthi attacks on civilian ships after the October 7 terrorist attack in Israel in spite of the increased costs also to China. Perhaps this is simply due to the Chinese principle of "non-interference". Or could there be something more nefarious at play? China (and Russia of course) abstained from a UN vote condemning the attacks. China, Russia abstain as UN Security Council adopts resolution condemning Houthi attacks - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East

Ships are now signaling "all Chinese crew" when passing Yemen, to avoid Houthi attacks. It will be interesting to see if this is effective in avoiding attacks. Ships Advertise Chinese Links to Avoid Houthi Attack in Red Sea - Bloomberg

Rozhin thinks this is a classic strategy of indirect approach, with the intent being to drag the US & Co. into as many meaningless conflicts as possible forcing them to waste resources without accomplishing anything.

Colonelcassad

Йемен. Диспозиция. 1. Сейчас ход за хуситами. От того, куда и как они ударят, зависит следующий ход США. Не ударить они не могут, так как это будет выглядеть слабостью, поэтому они ударят. США не смогут не ответить, так как если они не ответят, это будет выглядеть слабостью. Поэтому США будут...

t.me

In the meantime oil prices are rising, and will likely continue to do so. Sure this all helps Russia, but give who the actors are, I think the player moving the pieces here is Iran. And of course they also benefit from high oil prices.

EDIT: It appears the Houthis have (predictably) attacked another civilian vessel, after the strikes.

Colonelcassad

Ожидаемо, но тем не менее. Несмотря на удары и угрозы США и Британии, хуситы снова атаковали торговое судно к юго-востоку от Адена. О конкретных повреждениях и типе использованного вооружения пока информации нет. 2-3 таких эпизода и США будут вынуждены либо продолжать атаки на Йемен, либо...

t.me

 

[T.C.P]

RAF strikes 1

RAF strikes 2

As Per BBC it was 4 Typhoons from Cyrpus with armed with Paveways.

 

[InterestedParty]

Every ship that avoids the Red Sea is depriving Egypt of the transit fees. I don't understand why Egypt seems to be standing back and letting US and UK forces to do the heavy lifting.
I also find it curious that after 7 years of Saudi bombing, munitions storage and radar sites are still functioning in Yemen.

 

[Feanor]

I also find it curious that after 7 years of Saudi bombing, munitions storage and radar sites are still functioning in Yemen.

Nothing curious about it. They were busy bombing other targets.

Jokes aside, Saudi incompetence is legendary, but also consider that Iran has been shipping in weapons and equipment almost nonstop. Munition sites in particular, when situated under ground, or in the mountains, are a rather hard target to identify.

 

[Ananda]

don't understand why Egypt seems to be standing back and letting US and UK forces to do the heavy lifting.

Instead being risk to be picture domestically helping Israel cause on Gaza war ? Like it or not, many middle east street already buy Houthis reasoning on attacking shipping as attack on Israel and their western backers.

Weather the target lately questionable on really targeting Israel bound shipping, but as the emotion already run high in Arab Streets, they want to support anyone that they perceive take arms against Israel and backers. Turn out at this moments Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis that perceive doing that by Arab streets.

That's main reason I see, why no Arab governments want to enter the sea fights against houthis. They simply want to avoid risk of triggering another Arab Spring/ Arab Spring #2.



Something that bit ironic in my opinion, the houthi line of control now mostly on the area that used to be North Yemen. While the Saudi/UAE back government in the area that used to be South Yemen. The bit ironic was North Yemen that use to be Pro Saudi and support by West during cold war. How political stance changes.

 

[koxinga]

I am still waiting to see the Houthis respond to two consecutive days of attack. So far, it has been a damp squib on their much vaunted missiles and drones.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I am still waiting to see the Houthis respond to two consecutive days of attack. So far, it has been a damp squib on their much vaunted missiles and drones.

It's a bit more than just tit (lol) for tat. Iran wants to be able to influence vast areas of importance to the west and thus create asymmetrical deterrence. But it is also aware that abusing these capabilities would bring upon it retaliation that would nullify said capabilities that Iran needs for a rainy day. It also always risks the west taking a different stance and targeting Iran directly.
If I were the Iranian leadership - I'd test the waters here and there, back off when someone retaliates, then wait until they fall asleep.

2 logical paths I can think of for the Houthis:

1. Minor, mostly symbolic retaliation to save face, then back off for a while.
2. Calibrate on the escalation threshold and keep attacking with a lower intensity to delegitimize western retaliation.

 

[swerve]

Nothing curious about it. They were busy bombing other targets.

Jokes aside, Saudi incompetence is legendary, but also consider that Iran has been shipping in weapons and equipment almost nonstop. Munition sites in particular, when situated under ground, or in the mountains, are a rather hard target to identify.

The Saudis should have been able to cut off the Houthis from external supplies. They had the hardware to blockade the short stretch of coast the Houthis held & close the airspace, & all the Houthis land borders were friendly to the Saudis.

Being too incompetent to do that definitely qualifies as legendary.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Instead being risk to be picture domestically helping Israel cause on Gaza war ? Like it or not, many middle east street already buy Houthis reasoning on attacking shipping as attack on Israel and their western backers.

Oh hey, if it isn't the consequences of their actions...
Now we probably get the most tangible piece of evidence of the middle eastern regimes' destructive policy actually costing them billions of dollars annually and their own sovereignty (aside from the constant wars but those are government-driven actions, not people-driven).
Between the 40's and 70's they pushed the line that Jews must be annihilated. Then they pushed the line that Israel must be destroyed and a Palestine be formed in its ashes.
And now they can't even protect themselves against a de facto naval blockade because the overly radicalized population can no longer be de-radicalized in any reasonable amount of time.

I wonder what other aspects of national development they locked themselves out of, just to appease an increasingly self-hostile population.

 

[Ananda]

hey, if it isn't the consequences of their actions...

No for this one, they don't want to get involved on Israel build mess.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

No for this one, they don't want to get involved on Israel build mess.

Ahh yes the good old Israel-Houthi war of 1970 and invasion of Socotra, bringing up tensions from the past.
I really have no idea how to frame this whole "death to America, death to Israel, a curse upon the Jews, victory to Islam" thing as anything but an entirely Houthi invention.

And yes, countries that incur some economical or strategic harm usually do in fact act in their interests regardless of whomst-ever they deem responsible.

 

[Ananda]

yes the good old Israel-Houthi war of 1970 and invasion of Socotra, bringing up tensions from the past.

Why the past ? It is related to present Gaza and West Bank Mess, simple as that. At least Israel should count lucky that those Arabs governments only staying in the fences. This include not going to involve against Houthis operation in red sea.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Why the past ? It is related to present Gaza and West Bank Mess, simple as that. At least Israel should count lucky that those Arabs governments only staying in the fences. This include not going to involve against Houthis operation in red sea.

I fail to see the connection between the Houthi issue and the war in Gaza. What is it, really? They wish to gain something financially? Politically? Militarily?

And what Arab governments specifically, and what exactly would not sitting on the fence look like?

 

[Feanor]

I fail to see the connection between the Houthi issue and the war in Gaza. What is it, really? They wish to gain something financially? Politically? Militarily?

And what Arab governments specifically, and what exactly would not sitting on the fence look like?

The connection was made by the Houthis themselves when they declared which ships they would attack. They didn't attack ships at random...