Possible Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Lostfleet

New Member
You think it is easier to bring material and heavy equipment via the med-bosporus-black sea than right through mainland europe via the european road and railroad network?

Ahem, that's defenitely not the case.
Especially not with every cargo vessel in the black sea being a much easier target for russian forces than trains and convoys on the landway.
If we assume Russia will have some sort of air superiority dont you think all the major roads and railroad network would be bombed at the beginning stages of the war?

If the naval convoy is protected by western navies I think it can hold on to the Russian Air Force.

Of course the major obstacle at this naval convoy scenario is that the reaction of Turkey, if they close the straits or delay the approval of the passage of the convoy, then this will plan will not work.
 

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
And what makes you think that if western countries get involved in this they would send a convoy of ships which would fight it's way right through the black sea to Ukraine ports but wouldn't use their airforces to cover the land routes?

Your idea of using ships instead of trains and trucks inside of europe to move large amounts of supplies and heavy equipment is far away from reality.
 

Lostfleet

New Member
Destroying the existing land infrastructure inside Ukraine would be done at the beginning stages of the war and most possibly western forces will not have time to group and prevent this.

Yes they could bring all the supplies via land to the border but they will have harder time to transport the materials and supplies once they are in Ukranie. Moreover, once they bring them from the border, they will have the risk to expose the neighbouring country to be involved directly at war.

The seaway is dangerous but at least you have a chance to bring supplies directly to the center of Ukraine and have a less chance of spreading the war. (maybe)

Ok this was my last effort to get a higher end in this arguement, if I couldn't I am all yours :)
 

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
So bringing the material to Ukraine's sea border suddenly makes it easier to spread the supplies throughout the Ukraine than bringing the stuff to the land border?
Why?
You assume that the infrastructure in Ukraine is in bad shape anyway so there is not difference apart from the trucks and trains used to bring the material to Ukraine can also be used inside of Ukraine whereas ships cannot.

And I highly doubt that Russia is able to destroy the road network in Ukraine so that it prevents trucks from bringing in material in just a few days.

Not that a direct fight NATO vs Russian forces wouldn't end in a nuclear exchange anyway as soon as NATO is able to build up enough forces to roll over what Russia can put in their way on it's western border...
 

nevidimka

New Member
I very much doubt Slovakia would agree to using its land route to bring materials to Ukraine to fight Russia. It wouldn't want to anger Russia and it has much to lose economically by becoming the enemy of Russia. Also it would become a target for Russian SRBM strike.

Also when you talk about bringing in materials to Ukraine to help them fight, what kind of materials? NATO war machines? If Ukraine military didnt have enough money for training, how are they gonna handle NATO stuff? That would bring in foreign military units to directly be involved in Ukraine's defence effort wouldn't it? Another cause for Russia to make preemptive/payback strikes on whoever ( eastern Europe countries ) who want to get involved.

Plus I think NATO wont get involved due to the nuclear standoff. They wouldn't want to escalate a Russia-Ukraine war towards WW3, just like they stood by watching Georgia. After all Ukraine is not a NATO member yet, so there is no obligation to help Ukraine. but there may be help from NATO in the background.
 

Firn

Active Member
It is far easier for Russia to destroy the naval infrastructure needed to bring efficiently large amounts of heavy equipment on land than to cut the vast road network leading into the Ukraine. Open up google maps and take a look at the various maps. The Ukraine is compared to other nations extremely easy to supply by land from the northwest, west and southwest. It is also a very flat, open land, making it easy to bypass primary roads...
 

Beatmaster

New Member
So bringing the material to Ukraine's sea border suddenly makes it easier to spread the supplies throughout the Ukraine than bringing the stuff to the land border?
Why?
You assume that the infrastructure in Ukraine is in bad shape anyway so there is not difference apart from the trucks and trains used to bring the material to Ukraine can also be used inside of Ukraine whereas ships cannot.

And I highly doubt that Russia is able to destroy the road network in Ukraine so that it prevents trucks from bringing in material in just a few days.

Not that a direct fight NATO vs Russian forces wouldn't end in a nuclear exchange anyway as soon as NATO is able to build up enough forces to roll over what Russia can put in their way on it's western border...
If i read this topic correctly then its very unlikely for the russians to invade the Ukraine.
First of the diplomatic problems that will come of it and secondly there is no point doing this specially with the knowlegd that the economy for both sides will be hammered down due this conflict.
There are way's around war that are mutch easyer to do than making war.

On the otherhand if russia do invade this country than the diplomatic situation will be chaotic. and it will be a major issue for the neightbours and regional stability.
As some of the posters have said the EU will just try to act by diplomatic resolutions to punish Russia this is probably true.
But at the same time the neightbours will ask EU and VS for protection just incase the Russian invasion goes further than the Ukraine.
My point here is that sooner or later the EU must step into the battle, because the EU would not like Russia so close to its borders and lets do not forget that many EU members fear that Russia is trying to rebuild the USSR by regaining control of the country's that turned there backs to Russia after the USSR colaps many years ago.
So as other already said there are so many factors that could trigger a huge domino effect.
So even if Russia is not doing anything the situation will be explosive.
A 3th world war? naaahh both EU/VS and Russia will be not that stupid because there is not point/winner just losers.
But a regional problem of epic proportion? yes so as far i can think.
Anyway the situation at hand is difficult enough to solve by just deplomatic talks but it will be almost impossible to solve by war.
And i hope that Russia is not that stupid because if it really comes down to just a escalating war? then the EU/NATO and his ally's will step in if they are forced to, in this case we will have a 3th Wwar of a epic size resulting of many deathsoldiers on both sides, and who is gonna win? i really do not know but one thing is for sure it is not going to be pretty for both sides and totally useless.

And besides this Russia will not like EU to stap in because defeating Ukraine is a little task for Russia and its huge army but fighting NATO is a hole new level of war concidering that NATO is not an baby army but a well armed and very well funded warmachine it will take some time for NATO to get this machine rolling but when its finally rolling than there is no stopping it by conventional means specially with US backing NATO.

And in this case all involving country's have already lost.....
But this is mostly Theoretic and unlike to happen at least let hope that this is not going to happen.
 
Last edited:

John Sansom

New Member
The assumptions in these posts--all of which I respect--is that somebody has pulled the trigger and hostilities have started. My original assumption is that Russia may have felt itself pushed into a corner by developing tensions and is concsidering a blockade response.

If so, it would be a whole lot easier to blockade one of the most famous of the world's natural chokepoints by shutting down the Black Sea end of the Bosphorous. That's why the Slovakia supply route option seems to be the most acceptable.

In truth, though, neither route looks to be particularly promising. Still, it's not simply a question of three countries trying to sort out a whole bunch of unfriendliness. NATO would certainly not ignore the likelihood of war to the east, and non-NATO members of the UN would start making their opinions felt strongly enough to discourage both sides from taking things too far.

Now I'm really babbling.:lul
 

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
All of you are right.

I just discussed about the best way to support Ukraine with material and equipment.

That it is more than unlikely that the EU or NATO would do this is defenitely clear to me.
I just tried to counter the idea of using the black sea to support Ukraine in case someone out of the west wanted to do this.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
It wouldn't want to anger Russia and it has much to lose economically by becoming the enemy of Russia. Also it would become a target for Russian SRBM strike.
Lest we forget - Slovakia is a NATO member. A SRBM on Bratislava means an ICBM on Moscow, at least in theory.
 

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
That's the whole problem with the idea of Ukraine getting support by anybody.
It's neighbours won't help them (actively) be it because NATO doesn't want to start a nuclear war over the fate of Ukraine or because the other neighbours don't want to be at odds with Russia.

@Kato
I would think that NATO wouldn't target Moscow.
Maybe a smaller less important town to begin with. ;)
Not that it would matter if we would start to walk this road...
I expect that I would defenitely eat some nukes right away if WWIII starts. Being close to HDW looks not very attractive when the mushroom clouds start to appear. :D
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Lest we forget - Slovakia is a NATO member. A SRBM on Bratislava means an ICBM on Moscow, at least in theory.
Moscow BMD (A-135) was meant to handle iirc 200 independent targets. ;) So targetting Moscow with "an" ICBM isn't saying much.
 

SkolZkiy

New Member
If Ru invade Ukraine and as you say NATO willsupply Ukraine then according to current war doctrine of Russia it will be automatically WW3 which will start from Mass Missile Nuclear Attack of EU and US and of cause response of US (and may be EU (8 nuc-subs of UK and France)).
and the question - Will US and EU take care about Ukraine and start WW3 for this country?? I doubt
 

SkolZkiy

New Member
Moscow BMD (A-135) was meant to handle iirc 200 independent targets. ;) So targetting Moscow with "an" ICBM isn't saying much.
Feanor if you don't know then I'll say to you - ANY POSSIBLE THREAT (SRBM, MRBM, ICBM) launched from enemy territory and POSSIBLY may be NUCLEAR would be responsed automatically - this is the new doctrine.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Actually the Russian doctrine as of 2000 includes an explicit first use policy on nuclear weapons. ;)

Anyways I think we all understand that the Ukranian army would topple like a house of cards in a real war against Russia.
 
Top