Guys I think a mountain is being made of a molehill here by Newsroom. Commentator Shane (who appears to have a linkage with the Army) has previously alluded to some LAV parts reaching end-of-life, needing replacement and IIRC can also be difficult to come by nowadays.
On the issue of sending "surplus" LAV's to Ukraine, my reading of the Newsroom article is it is referring to the remaining 8 that are still supposedly being offered for sale (not the original 30 - presumably negotiations were happening behind the scenes with Chile for 22 when the Ukraine war broke out in February 2022 and those 22 were therefore not available when politicians and media commentators started calling for them to be sent over).
IIRC these 30 "surplus" LAV's had been in storage for several years so presumably 22 had to be regenerated for sale to Chile? If so, that also means the remaining 8 would also need to be regenerated. This seems to align with what MinDef Henare is saying in the Newsroom article. (And pretty sure Reg talked about all this last year in the NZ Army thread when some of us were debating the surplus LAV situation).
So even if NZGovt were to change their minds and fund NZDF to regenerate the remaining 8 surplus LAV's for Ukraine (which with such a small number would be a symbolic move and not that practical in the wider scheme of internationally supplied armaments to Ukraine), it wouldn't end there for NZ or NZDF once they are shipped or flown over. Presumably NZDF would have to send over an Army support contingent (to Poland?), to maintain them (and train Ukraine personnel on how to operate them), which would be on-going for months/years. Spares and replacement parts would still have to be sent over which would probably mean cannibalising operational LAV's from NZ Army's Amoured Corps meaning training and readiness in NZ is impacted (let alone losing vital technical specialists and NCO's to Europe for months without an end date, that the Army is struggling to retain anyway/regenerate its combat and combined arms training programmes etc). Again this seems to align with what MinDef Henare is alluding to (in obviously alot less words in the Newsroom article).
Sure, could the NZGovt have said "stuff it" (and cancelled the sale to Chile) and send over 30 or so LAV's to Ukraine? Well there is much discussion on the Russian-Ukrainian War thread about the practicalities/impracticalities of Western Govts sending so many different types of kit. I suspect NZ doing it alone would mainly have been more symbolic and only somewhat practical, but also an uneconomic cost burden for such a small nation/Army as NZ (we must be one of the smallest nations offering support) as mentioned above.
BUT on the other hand if the Canadians had sent any surplus LAV III's (earlier-mid 2022 when this was being raised in NZ) or the USMC sent any surplus Strykers (and I'm not even sure if they have any surplus anyway?) and set up a logistics/support system ... which would allow NZ to "plug in" its 30 or so LAV's then sure that may have been more viable. But that never happened. And may also explain why NZDF were so hesitant to send LAV's last year.
As per the Newsroom article, NZ contributing funds to the UK to assist Ukraine to purchase SAM's for air defence seems to be a more practical priority for the Ukrainians and their infrastructure etc.
In terms of the remaining 8 surplus LAV's that are still supposedly for sale .... no-one (no other country) is going to buy a mere 8 of them. This or the next NZ Govt needs to be realistic by pulling them from the market and keeping them for attrition until the LAV's are finally replaced or upgraded.
(As the Ukraine war is reminding us (and many other nations), having fully functional attrition or stored capabilities in a necessity .... especially in these changing times as (non-democratic) country after country is now openly challenging the accepted rules based order that we have known since WW2).
Although as Chis is alluding to, to take 9 years (2024-2033) to acquire LAV replacements or upgrades is absurd. If spare parts is becoming more and more of an issue then surely unless their are significant upgrades (LAV6?) to keep ALL LAV's fully operational for another 10 years I would like to see the NZGovt explain how they will manage these issues or whether they intend to bring the replacement dates forward.
www.facebook.com
