gf0012 said:
:idea: Chinese believe that the US , Japan and other western countries will never give enough chance to China to develope or become another power even super power.It is not beneficial for them. China need patience,because there are chinese in Taiwan.But the patience is based on owing power and strength.Also,recapturing Taiwan will make China more powerful and make the PLAN more active.
Fankly,I can not exactly explain why Chinese insist on the view that Taiwan is absolutely one part of China and must be recaptured by the central government.I think maybe the affection of the glorious and dam history of the so-called "The Middle Kingdom"is so powerful and force or motivate every chinese to fight for her integrity,her glory,her independence and her rising above.
Maybe I can give you a very famous poem.But I am rather sorry that I can not translate it into English because my poor English.
Maybe you can call someone for help:: :alian :alian :alian :help
满江红
怒发冲冠
凭栏处
潇潇雨歇
抬望眼
仰天长啸
壮怀激烈
三十功名尘与土
八千里路云和月
莫等闲
白了少年头
靖康耻
犹未雪
臣子恨
何时了
驾长车
踏破贺兰山缺
壮士饥餐胡虏肉
笑谈喝饮匈奴血
待从头
收拾旧山河
朝天阙。
North Korea VS South Korea
- Thread starter yutong chen
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With China`s economy booming right now with the help of American business`s they will prevent North Korea from trying anything that crazy, plus it would benefit China to stay on good terms with South Korea due to their input and money being pumped into China. North Korea has a impressive military with the exception of it`s outdated equipment, the kings on that battlefield will be artillery and the common ground pounder and with the aide of America South Korea will win, it will be bloody. China cannot afford this right now due to the far more advanced weapon systems that America has. Japan will be thrown into this also because they have no choice, it is bad enough that they have China close by, they do not need a very hostile Korea in the same area. Japan has a very impressive navy and air force and with North Korea`s missle test launches close by they are rethinking their countries pacifistic constitution which is bad for China and they have expressed this with uncle Kim Jong Ill.
(Old resurrected post, I know)
If anyone is going to suffer from the onslaught of North Korean artillery, it's going to be the civilian population of Seoul. Field Marshall Erich von Manstein reported in his memoirs that the Soviet artillery divisions, first seen in 1943, laid down the most ferocious artillery barages prior to engagements - the most intense the Wehrmacht had ever seen, and yet these were only divisions of approximately 1000 guns. If North Korean opens up with the firepower of several times that on Seoul, I wouldn't be surprised if the casualty rating would be upwards of several hundred thousand, even a million or more, with a city boasting a civilian population of over 10 million.
Most of South Korea's military, however, is scattered north of the city, and I'd imagine it would not take long for them to respond. Even if Seoul is fatally bombarded, I doubt it would cripple South Korea's ability to fight on, and I'm sure they've taken to great lengths to ensure their fighting capability in the event of an artillery barrage in this magnitude.
But I doubt an event like this will ever happen. For one, China won't allow it. Not only do they NOT want the United States any closer and influential than we already are, the last thing they want, at least in my opinion, is Japan rearming. Japan has the capability, the deep water ports, the economy, and the cultural background to support a very strong military (as it has done in the past), and if North Korea pushes their buttons one too many times, you can be darned sure they'll do so.
So long as little Kim Jong is comfortably at the top of the food chain in his country, however, I don't think he'll do too much to risk losing it. While a maniac, I don't think he's that stupid. He knows he can't fighting a prolonged war with any neighboring country. He also darned well knows for sure that, in the event they had to do so, China could also remove him from office as well.
If anyone is going to suffer from the onslaught of North Korean artillery, it's going to be the civilian population of Seoul. Field Marshall Erich von Manstein reported in his memoirs that the Soviet artillery divisions, first seen in 1943, laid down the most ferocious artillery barages prior to engagements - the most intense the Wehrmacht had ever seen, and yet these were only divisions of approximately 1000 guns. If North Korean opens up with the firepower of several times that on Seoul, I wouldn't be surprised if the casualty rating would be upwards of several hundred thousand, even a million or more, with a city boasting a civilian population of over 10 million.
Most of South Korea's military, however, is scattered north of the city, and I'd imagine it would not take long for them to respond. Even if Seoul is fatally bombarded, I doubt it would cripple South Korea's ability to fight on, and I'm sure they've taken to great lengths to ensure their fighting capability in the event of an artillery barrage in this magnitude.
But I doubt an event like this will ever happen. For one, China won't allow it. Not only do they NOT want the United States any closer and influential than we already are, the last thing they want, at least in my opinion, is Japan rearming. Japan has the capability, the deep water ports, the economy, and the cultural background to support a very strong military (as it has done in the past), and if North Korea pushes their buttons one too many times, you can be darned sure they'll do so.
So long as little Kim Jong is comfortably at the top of the food chain in his country, however, I don't think he'll do too much to risk losing it. While a maniac, I don't think he's that stupid. He knows he can't fighting a prolonged war with any neighboring country. He also darned well knows for sure that, in the event they had to do so, China could also remove him from office as well.
I totally agree about the artillery, the North Koreans use Soviet style tactics and even the Germans dreaded that during WW2. It will really be interesting in the next couple of years to see how Japan starts building up it`s military arsenal, It`s my opinion that the U.S government is all smiles on that one.
Regardless, the PRC will stand to win in the long run if such a move is justified. for one thing, and in the long run, preventing/delaying the emergence of powerful unified Korea will serve well china's geopolitical interests, for all intents and purposes. Meanwhile,
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This will not affect chinese economic even the slightest. Some border regions might have slight problem due to NK refugees (althou not much), but China as general could only benefit from inflow of highly educated NK people, agreed to work for very low (even by Chinese standards) wage. Compare 1.3b Chinese population vs 23m of NK population... And you'll see how much problems will be NK refugees for China.
F-15 Eagle
New Member
Hey guys what would happen if North and South Korea sign a peace treaty, would that affect their defense spending at all? And what about the 25,000 U.S. troops in South Korea, will they stay in Korea?
mic of orion
New Member
South Korea with a relative ease, although in opening salvos Seoul might get hit by North Korean artillery. South Koreans would try to push North Korean Artillery out of the range, North Korean troops might start t surrender in large numbers if they see first opportunity.
I can safely say South Korea would win with relative ease despite North Korean hardware and personal superiority.
South Koreans have technological superiority as well as training and quality of personal, I'd say North Korea would fall with in 5-6 months of war.
Unless North Korea is helped by China, but I do not see that happening. As long US stays out of the conflict I see no reason for China to get involved.
I cannot imagine China wanting to incorporate, or even occupy, North Korea. The political consequences would be immensely damaging, the financial cost considerable, it would gain the enmity of S. Korea, with which is currently friendly - and for what? Access to ports does not need rule. Switzerland has unfettered access to the port of Rotterdam. China can get improved access to ports by spending money to improve transport links & ports in North Korea. Kim Jong-Il & his cronies would doubtless be happy to co-operate, in return for Chinese money.
Also, the North-East of China is not economically backward. It is (relatively) depressed, which is not the same thing. Thirty years ago, it was the richest & most industrialised part of China, & it still has a GDP per head, life expectancy, urbanisation rate, literacy, etc at or above the national average. What has changed is that it is in relative (compared to other parts of China) decline, & now has significant unemployment & pockets of new poverty as a result of the decline of some of its old heavy industries.
No it would not, even though it would go from a truce to a official peace treaty there will be a major mistrust for uncle Kim, let his past record stand.
The U.S would like nothing more than to pull our ground troops out, they are no longer needed. All the ROK government needs to say is leave and we will be gone.
Incognito129
Banned Member
Well back then it was called Manchuria. I think this is where the movie Manchurian candidate came from, due to Japan's false flag attack on them.
What is not said behind the scenes is the enormous leverage NK has over China. The one thing China cannot have is war, an excuse for the US military to intervene in the region. Right now the top echelon is itching for an excuse to wipe out the chinese military, and an NK provocation will give them the political leverage to do so. Im guessing that one of the reasons the North Korean regime is not willing to pursue economic reform like the Chinese is the leverage gained on them geopolitically.
Although the S.K. c&c is lacking, its ground forces are nevertheless one of the strongest in Asia. They have an enormous amount of experience from the Korean war and Vietnam war. Although NK artillery will pretty much wipe out Seoul, they will eventually get crushed.
If it comes down to war, it will be China + NK, Sk + US. Japan's ground troops are not the strongest by any stretch of the imagination, and with little offensive capability it rules out alot of Japanese involvement.
Why China? What possible reason could China have for joining in Kim Jong-Ils insane adventures? I can imagine China occupying border areas ("to restore order") after N. Korea is defeated but before S. Korean forces reach the far north, but clearly signalling as they do so that they do not wish to fight either the USA or S. Korea.
As you yourself point out, China does not want a war. S. Korea is a much better friend to China than N. Korea is, & a good & valued trading partner. Why support a regime you loathe, an expensive embarrassment, against an economically valuable country which you're on good terms with? The leverage N. Korea has is the threat to collapse, which it uses to extort Chinese aid, & the threat to to start a bloody & expensive (to China) war. If N. Korea actually did either, it would lose that leverage, & with it all Chinese support for its government.
China does not want US troops on its border, & does not want a powerful Korea next door. But a lightly armed united Korea with no US troops would be nice.
As for Japan: it could (& probably would) make an immense contribution to South Koreas war effort by actively defending its own airspace & waters, & thereby making S. Koreas resupply routes safe, & providing a secure base for US forces.
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Incognito129
Banned Member
US echelon will use it as an excuse to destroy and slowdown the growth of the chinese military. It doesn't matter if China wants to join or not, it will have to respond knowing US intentions. They have already repeatedly said they will send troops in the case of a 2nd Korean war, and recently for that matter.
Korean supply routes will become a US asset, we would never ask another country to protect something that vital.
Ok your perspective is kind of skewed regarding Asian politics, atleast from my POV. I doubt China loathes N.K. The economic value of either country is irrevelant.
You keep mentioning things that are completely irrevelant and to a degree childish.
This is the only important fact. US can control China today, but it needs political support. In this 21st century you cannot simply use propaganda and then start a war. What US commanders are desperately seeking is just that, a way in. With massive amounts of exported Russian technology to China, its giving China a way to modernize their military which the commanders here are growing increasingly wary of.
You are going to fight PLA on Chinese turf? It'll make Iraq look like a cake walk.
Ok... fair enough How much assets do you suppose the US can en mass in the starting stages? Is there any assets in Guam to be able to sustain operations in the short term? Are you just going to charge the DMZ with only units based in SK?
The best PLA units are in position to stage operations in a get go. Supplies are already stored in Sheng Yang MR. 38th GA and 40th GA are the best equiped in PLA and guess where they are based. Plus there isn't a DMZ to charge for PLA. By the time US start breaking through the DMZ, PLA might have already handed them a fait accompli with possiblely a regime change plus de-nuked NK.
Do you work for the state department or Beijing? Would you like to share something we don't already know?
Until then Chinese POV vis a vis NK is out of your gasp.
Try reading this.
http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,4255/type,1/
Unless you think you are in a better position to make an analysis of Chinese-NK relations... Please do correct me.
Childish... need I say more?
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DefConGuru
New Member
I'm surprised this discussion wasn't closed earlier.
Childish? Oh dear. Perhaps you'd like to reconsider that.
It's clear that you believe in a zero sum world. Sorry pal, it don't work like that. The USA can not gain from a war with China. China might suffer more, but the USA would be grievously harmed. So why do you think the USA would start such a war? Your idea that the US military would attack China in the event of war breaking out between the Koreas* is based on what evidence? Do you envisage the US president ordering US forces to launch an unprovoked attack on China, or US commanders acting on their own initiative? What do you think would be the consequences of such a blatant breach of international law by the USA?
What knowledge or experience of NE Asia & its politics do you have?
Let us consider some of your statements in detail: "Korean supply routes will become a US asset, we would never ask another country to protect something that vital." Hmm. So the USA would assume military control of Japan? Really? The Japanese would be told to knuckle under, ground their air force, tie up their ships, & leave it all to Uncle Sam? If not, what do you actually mean?
What "control" do you think the USA can exert on China? What do you mean by control?
Why do you consider economics irrelevant? Have you ever studied history, & the sources of rivalry & hostility between states?
*You state that China would act because it is aware that the USA would act, which clearly implies that you believe that if China did not join the war, the USA would attack it. If not, your premise is false.
Can you point to Chinese statements about their actions in the case of a Korean war which support what you say about their intentions?
It's veered into politics, but only those directly relevant to the main topic, so I don't think it's far enough off course to close. Yet.
But I may have to drag it back on topic soon, despite having helped to derail it. The things we do to ourselves . . .
1st they would just occupy it, then have troops indefinetely stationed there, than give NK "authonomy". This process may take many years- and the ROK will be glad to be settled with lesser evil, since they won't have to absorb all the costs associated with "reunification". It's not even comparable with E/W German one- the West Germany was an economic giant of Europe, while S. Korea only recently emerged as one of the "E.Asian tigers", at the end of the East-West Cold War, & under the US security umbrella at that! I would rather compare them with North & South Vietnam- both share common language & culture, but still have many differences going back centuries. There is still an ancient wall separating them!
BTW, this map shows China territorial ebbing across her history. IMO, the larger military advantages are outflanking Russia, ROK & Japan by getting direct contol of half of Korean peninsula. BTW, there is already at least 2M of ethnic Koreans in China.
Incognito129
Banned Member
I dont care if you are offended. You are completely naive to the situation, proof is in what you said.
What do zero sum games have to do with this? Its obvious you are some chinese guy by the way you staunchly state a war with China will hurt the US? I dont think so.
Like I said there are political barriers, but once a 2nd Korean war breaks out it will not be a far reach to eliminate the Chinese threat. Im sure you are concerned and would love to alleviate the fears of China being hurt, but either case the US echelon are dying to attack the Chinese. Look at it this way. 9/11 happened, Al Qaeda was responsible yet we went after Iraq.
What you dont understand is South Korea, apparently has already taken economic steps to unify the country. South Korea will gain control, and since the US is an ally and huge trading partner is gains a valuable ally in the region along with Japan.
I meant what I wrote. The US military does not rely on others for the protect of supply lines EVER. You being chinese, Im sure you dont understand that. US has never been friendly to countries that hold natural resources that the US requires.
Military control. We already have economic control.
The economics of war come after the war, your perceived importance of chinese factories is misplaced when the real money that the US is interested is access to the Chinese market. I think your communist propaganda has gotten to your head, China is not all that powerful.
What kind of nonsensical reply is this. I said if China joins the war, we will attack China. Try to use some logic.
Sure, google the north east project. There was also a recent statement saying Chinese troops will be sent into N.K. if it destabilizes.
Are you trying to tell USA - China war will not hurt USA? Common, get real. USA already had it in Korea and Vietnam wars. I doubt USA will make yet another mistake and begin war against strong opponent. While USA politicans openly state the need to "stop" chinese military and economic development (and that can be only zero-sum game) - still open conflict is not in the USA interests. Becouse the cant win. Simply as that.
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