North Korea "Conducts Nuke Test!"

alexsa

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JasonSkald said:
What is the outside world possibly going to sanction? AFAIK North Korea is already under heavy sanctions of just about everything except food aid.
You need to read up more.

The NK domesitc economy is currently being kept afloat by significant aid and investment from SK and China. Next to these two I believe japan also provide signficant investment and aid.

Until recently the NK econsomy was shrinking at a rapid rate. This decline has only been arrested throught investment. Without this finacial support the country would again slip into a rapid economic decline. Currently they have insufficient resoures to provide adequate power and cannot feed themselves (particularly after recent floods) and many rural areas survive at close to starvation level. NK relies on imports, cut the imports and things will get dicy for them.

For this to be effective China has to participate. If the option is a rearmed and more aggressive Japan (and perhaps Taiwan) if they allow NK to continue they are likely to think seriously about it. I don't think China will thank NK for this act.
 

alexsa

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Izzy1 said:
Sorry, but I don't think rational thought or history plays much part in the DPRK leadership's thought process!

They're desperate, the only thing they have left now is to either trade their nukes for better terms - or use them...
I doubt they have many to trade (depending on which source you look at they sufficient material for about a dozen weapons). Considering they have just tested their first unit it is not even certain that others wouel have completed production yet.

They have alwasy wanted one on one talks with the US on their terms and this seems to be the latest effort in achieving that end. It is a risky strategy and is likley to come back at them.

If they were to drop a nuclear weapon on another state (or even use conventional weapons) in an unprovoked attack I doubt China or Russia would do much to stop the likes of SK, Japan and the US taking action. However, if SK, Japan and the US launch any sort of preemptive attack then I suspect you wouel have problems wiht China and, maybe Russia.

Seal up their borders, freeze their assets. stop theirs ships and wait and see. Given the NK econmoic condition something will have to give.
 

merocaine

New Member
Wow the world just got a lot more interesting!
Now that the North Koreans know they work, do you think they'll detonate the ones they smuggled into South Korea and the US?
Scary thoughts dudes scary thoughts......
 

Izzy1

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I doubt they have many to trade (depending on which source you look at they sufficient material for about a dozen weapons). Considering they have just tested their first unit it is not even certain that others wouel have completed production yet.

I agree, they won't have many in numbers. But lets face it, when its comes to North Korea, whether they have 1 or a 100 nukes - its the unpredictability of the regime which is the factor.
 
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gf0012-aust

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alexsa said:
I don't think China will thank NK for this act.
agree completely. NorK has actually overplayed their hand IMV. the worrying thing for china is that they now realise that they don't actually have much control over NorK.

There are going to be some very strange political bedfellows emerging out of this .....
 

.pt

New Member
Also very interesting will be the Japanese reaction to this.
Now Japan has a real motive to start rearming, conventional weapons at least, and to really start investing in ABM weapons and technology.
Of course this side efect will be one more to add to China´s grievances to its Ally. They definitely don´t want Japan rearming, on their doorstep.
Merocaine, the nukes the NK is suposed to have smugled to SK and US, is there any confirmed news on that, or is it just suposition? If they have just tested their first nuke, and aparantly only have the stuff to build 10 weapons, or so, that would seem a bit forced...
Besides mini nukes are a lot harder to build than conventional ones.
.pt
 

riksavage

Banned Member
China's response

Reading the latest intelligence / information reports and having a reasonable understanding of China’s strategic motives I’m convinced the incumbent Chinese leaders are mightily p*ssed off with the North Korean leadership for conducting te test (if proved true).

It’s in China’s interests to see a Communist Government retained in North Korea who, whilst an international outcast, continue to dance to China’s drum beat. The last thing the PRC wants to see is a collapsed state leading to the eventual unification of North / South Korea along the lines of what happened with Germany, which maintains strong links to the US/West. Having a pro-Western, technologically advanced nation bordering the country is simply not acceptable. So, watch this space, China will be the ones most interested in reining in the Korean dictatorship.:D
 

RubiconNZ

The Wanderer
Heres some sound bytes about reactions from leaders courtesy of BBC News:

UK PRIME MINISTER TONY BLAIR
Tony Blair condemned North Korea's apparent first nuclear weapons test as a "completely irresponsible act".


WHITE HOUSE SPOKESMAN TONY SNOW
"A North Korean nuclear test would constitute a provocative act, in defiance of the will of the international community and of our call to refrain from actions that would aggravate tensions in northeast Asia... We expect the Security Council to take immediate actions to respond to this unprovoked act."


JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER SHINZO ABE
"North Korea's nuclear weapons test can never be pardonable. But we should collect and analyze more intelligence on the matter in a cool-headed manner."


CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTRY
"[North Korea] has ignored the widespread opposition of the international community and conducted a nuclear test brazenly on 9 October... The Chinese government is firmly opposed to this... The Chinese side strongly demands the North Korean side abide by its pledges on denuclearisation and to stop any action that would worsen the situation".


SOUTH KOREAN SPOKESMAN YOON TAE-YOUNG
"Our government will sternly deal with this in accordance with the principle that it will not tolerate North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons... North Korea's behaviour is a grave threat to peace and stability, not only in the Korean peninsula but also in Northeast Asia... Our military, based on the South Korea-US alliance, is fully ready for any provocation by North Korea."


AUSTRALIAN PRIME MINISTER JOHN HOWARD
Australia will "advocate a UN Security Council regime against [North Korea] which includes targeted financial and travel sanctions, other trade restrictions and/or aviation
 

RubiconNZ

The Wanderer
US Confirm NK Nuclear Test

Alright off fox news:
U.S. Official: North Korea Tested Nuclear Weapon

Monday , October 09, 2006

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea completed a successful test of a nuclear weapon late Sunday night, a senior Bush administration official confirmed to FOX News.

The official said, however, that initial readings from South Korea reported only a 3.58-magnitude seismic reaction, which is smaller than what would be expected from the 4-kiloton explosion the Axis of Evil nation sought. To put the bomb's capabilities in context, a 20-kiloton explosion could conceivably kill 200,000 people.

"North Korea may not have got what they wanted," the official said.

• Raw Data: North Korean Statement on Alleged Nuke Test

The U.S. Geological Survey, however, said it detected a 4.2-magnitude tremor at 10:35 p.m. EDT, which could mean the device was potentially deadlier than initially believed. Australia also said there was seismic confirmation that North Korea conducted a nuclear test.

"It was a success from their perspective in that they achieved a nuclear yield, though that is not very difficult," the official said. "It's within their technical capabilities."

U.S. officials told FOX News' Bret Baier that they were warned by allies in advance of the test. China reportedly received a 20-minute heads up and immediately notified officials in the U.S., Japan and South Korea.

The test is North Korea's first-ever detonation of an atomic device, but the nation as long claimed to have nuclear capabilities.

• Related Story: South Korean Stocks Plunge After Reported North Korea Nuclear Test

White House press secretary Tony Snow said that the White House is not officially confirming that there was a nuclear test.

Snow said the U.S. had spoken to the Chinese and had contact with the South Koreans. If they confirm that the seismic event was a nuclear test, John Bolton will call for an emergency session of the U.N. Security Council, Snow said.

Bush administration officials say they will push for an "extremely strong U.N. resolution against North Korea that would make it illegal to transfer missile and missile-related items, materials, goods and technology for North Korean weapons of mass destruction programs."

U.S. officials say the White House will seek "much stronger punitive measures" on general trade with North Korea, although they do not believe the country's oil supplies will be targeted.

The test sparked condemnation from regional powers who said that, if confirmed, would be a serious threat to regional stability.

The North's official Korean Central News Agency said the underground test was performed successfully "with indigenous wisdom and technology 100 percent," and that no radiation leaked from that test site.

"It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the (Korean People's Army) and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defense capability," KCNA said. "It will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the area around it."

Japan's top government spokesman said a reported North Korean test would post a serious threat to the stability in the region and a provocation.

China, the North's closest ally, said Beijing "resolutely opposes" the North Korean nuclear test and hopes Pyongyang will return to disarmament talks.

U.S. and South Korean officials could not immediately confirm that an actual test had occurred.

The U.N. Security Council was expected to discuss the reported North Korean test Monday, and the United States and Japan are likely to press for a resolution imposing additional sanctions on Pyongyang. The council last week issued a statement condemning plans for a test.

A resolution adopted in July after a series of North Korean missile launches imposed limited sanctions on North Korea and demanded the country rejoin international nuclear talks -- a demand the North immediately rejected.

Also, South Korea's Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon was expected later Monday to be nominated as the next secretary-general of the United Nations by the Security Council. Ban has said he would use the post, which he would assume after Kofi Annan's term expires at the end of the year, to press for a resolution of the North Korean nuclear standoff.

The North has refused for a year to attend international talks aimed at persuading it to abandon its nuclear ambitions. The country pulled out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 2003 after U.S. officials accused it of a secret nuclear program, allegedly violating an earlier nuclear pact between Washington and Pyongyang.

The North is believed to have enough radioactive material for about a half-dozen bombs, using plutonium from its main nuclear reactor located at Yongbyon, north of the capital Pyongyang.

The North also has active missile programs, but it isn't believed to have an atomic bomb design small and light enough to be mounted on a long-range rocket that could strike targets as far as the U.S.

If confirmed, the North would be the ninth country in the world known to have nuclear weapons. The other countries are the United States, Russia, France, China, Britain, India, Pakistan and Israel.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun was holding an emergency meeting Monday of top security officials, and Seoul was consulting with allies on intelligence about the reported test, presidential spokesman Yoon Tae-young said.

South Korea's Defense Ministry said the alert level of the military had been raised in response to the claimed nuclear test.

The test came amid intense diplomatic efforts aimed at heading off the move.

Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, arrived Monday in Seoul for meetings with President Roh Moo-hyun that had been intended to address strains in relations between Japan and South Korea over territorial and historical disputes, but was overshadowed by news of the nuclear test.

"We must collect and analyze information to determine whether North Korea actually conducted the test," Abe told reporters upon his arrival.

On Sunday in Beijing, Abe and Chinese President Hu Jintao had pledged to work together to avert a North Korean test.

Fwah watch this space indeed, if confirmation was needed there it is...
 

swerve

Super Moderator
StephenBierce said:
Anybody know if the detonation can be construed legally as a breach of the 1953 Cease-Fire? The DPRK has already said publically that they intend to use their nukes pre-emptively. Has the Korean War resumed?
Of course it can't! A test of a nuclear explosive device (not even a usable weapon, probably), underground, far from the DMZ. Nothing to do with the ceasefire terms.

No, the Korean war has not resumed. The Dear Leader & his cronies are trying to blackmail the world into giving them more aid, is all. Their idea of diplomacy.
 

alexsa

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swerve said:
Of course it can't! A test of a nuclear explosive device (not even a usable weapon, probably), underground, far from the DMZ. Nothing to do with the ceasefire terms.

No, the Korean war has not resumed. The Dear Leader & his cronies are trying to blackmail the world into giving them more aid, is all. Their idea of diplomacy.
Judging by the response from China it wouel appear NK really have over stepped the mark. China have never used language as strong as that reported.

The response from NK over the next few days will be interesting. China will lean on them very hard by the sound of it. It may have been one ultimatetum too far for NK.
 

.pt

New Member
Does anyone truly believe that this time the UN will impose harsh sanctions against DPRK?
Reading the article about NK current situation, it seems this year will be another disaster in terms of crops, so it will push their already difficult situation, to perhaps a critical one. Would that be the main reason behind this test as Swerve says, or just some more show of force? If critical aid is stoped, what will hapen? Even china is angry with them, and might not be willing to same levels of suport. Perhaps an internal coup to replace kim as the leader, but not a regime change?
.pt
 
i dont think china and south korea will stop sending aid to north korea. the test was done to show that they have a workable bomb. now that everyone knows this, the north koreans hope to have a better bargaining position. we will see how it plays out.
 

alexsa

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.pt said:
Does anyone truly believe that this time the UN will impose harsh sanctions against DPRK?
Reading the article about NK current situation, it seems this year will be another disaster in terms of crops, so it will push their already difficult situation, to perhaps a critical one. Would that be the main reason behind this test as Swerve says, or just some more show of force? If critical aid is stoped, what will hapen? Even china is angry with them, and might not be willing to same levels of suport. Perhaps an internal coup to replace kim as the leader, but not a regime change?
.pt
There is some suggestion that Kim is under a level of control from military hard liners anad has to play ball with them to a degree. I doubt we will see and internal coup as the systems is based on a personality cult.

In so far as sanctions are concnered I think harsh sanctions will be imposed BUT I suspect China will have to force a solution if it is to keep NK in the communist fold. This will not be easy and the next month or so should prove interesting.
 

alexsa

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radiosilence said:
i dont think china and south korea will stop sending aid to north korea. the test was done to show that they have a workable bomb. now that everyone knows this, the north koreans hope to have a better bargaining position. we will see how it plays out.
I don't agree. China will have to be seen to do something. As noted above I think they will be forced to find a soluton, one I doubt will be palatable to NK. the proble for China is that NK have just proved tha China has no contol over them and as a result they need to reexert it.
 

Izzy1

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Agreed.

I do honestly believe that China (with the quiet backing of Japan, Russia and South Korea) will push for a change of leadership in Pyongyang.

As already stated on here earlier, it is in China's interests to calm matters and this episode as gf said, only goes to underline that the Dear Leader is far from under their control.
 

merocaine

New Member
i dont think china and south korea will stop sending aid to north korea. the test was done to show that they have a workable bomb. now that everyone knows this, the north koreans hope to have a better bargaining position. we will see how it plays out.
I agree, so now its been confirmed, they have a workable bomb. There position has been strenghtened Vis a V the the rest of the region. Increased dialogue is going to be the most lightly result.

What is interesting is Chinas role in this
1. They have a lot less infulence of North Korea than we thought.

2. They gave tact approval.

Japan arent going to start a nuclear arms race.

Nothing substantive has changed, except we now know that they have a working bomb, rather than just working under that assumption.
 

alexsa

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merocaine said:
I agree, so now its been confirmed, they have a workable bomb. There position has been strenghtened Vis a V the the rest of the region. Increased dialogue is going to be the most lightly result.

What is interesting is Chinas role in this
1. They have a lot less infulence of North Korea than we thought.

2. They gave tact approval.

Japan arent going to start a nuclear arms race.

Nothing substantive has changed, except we now know that they have a working bomb, rather than just working under that assumption.
On what do you base this! China will not have given tacit approval, their response seems to prove that.

Japan will very likley strenghern its military but may not go after the bomb.

The NK barganing ability will be in tatters if China stop aid (By the SK have already done so). China will not be happy with this and I think NK are now in a worse position than ever.
 

merocaine

New Member
On what do you base this! China will not have given tacit approval, their response seems to prove that.
In the month before the test Kim had travelled in his personal train to China twice (more than he has in the last 10 years) for face to face talks, so China has known for a while there was going to be a test.
So as I said there two possiblites

1. China gave tact approval for the test.

2. China has a lot less influence over North Korea than the West Japan Korea thought.

Thier Response proves nothing.
 

contedicavour

New Member
Now that NK has gone all the way towards proving to the world that it has nuclear weapons, I would even speculate that China might try to run a coup d'état to overthrow the current dictator and replace him with a general more in tune with China's government.
SK and the US would be only too happy to play along.
Without Chinese economic (and military) aid NK is done for. If that is added to a boycott including border control by Chinese authorities, then NK is likely to collapse.
What remains interesting to see is Russia's reaction. For the moment it is the mildest and there are chances Putin may try to broker a deal and reinforce Russia's growing power.

cheers
 
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