Middle East Defence & Security

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
CENTCOM: “The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”

So my question above remains.

Also, the US is to block traffic that Iran wouldn't, effectively reducing the number to zero.

Edit: going to fill up the tank on the way to the store in a bit here, lol.
I don't think thats correct. If I'm reading this right, a Chinese tanker heading to and from a Saudi port would theoretically be allowed passage by both sides.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ Yes, of course. I now mean a Chinese vessel carrying Iranian oil since the CENtCOM changed the context of the previous assumption. We will see what happens.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
CENTCOM: “The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”

So my question above remains.

Also, the US is to block traffic that Iran wouldn't, effectively reducing the number to zero.

Edit: going to fill up the tank on the way to the store in a bit here, lol.
Went to Costco today for beer and the pump lineup for gas sucked so I went home and enjoyed the beer.
 

SamB

Member
Oh they are neither incompetent nor naive.

Inflation is exactly what they need.
High energy prices is exactly what they need.
Global recession is exactly the objective.

Nothing is better if your debt is uncontrollable. The covid pandemic didn't teach you anything?

Those people are not stupid, they are evil.
That's very different.
The crisis is not a consequence, it is the goal.
Rescission is the fastest way for any government to lose power. Economic misery almost always leads to political turnover, social unrest, and the rise of populist movements that elites actually fear because they lose control of the narrative.

Inflation is a double edged sword for debt. It’s true that inflation "inflates away" the value of old debt, but it also makes new borrowing incredibly expensive. Trump would know this better than us.

Bondholders quickly demand higher interest rates to compensate for inflation, which can actually make a government's total debt burden less manageable in the long run. High energy prices don't just hurt households; they crush the industries that the "elites" rely on for profit. When manufacturing and trade slow down due to energy costs, corporate margins shrink and tax revenues fall, leaving the government with even less money to manage that "uncontrollable debt".

Most economists argue that the global economy is too vast and chaotic for any small group to perfectly "goal" a specific crisis. External shocks like the war in Ukraine or supply chain shifts are often cited as the real drivers that caught leaders off guard; Five reasons why your power bills are sky high–and how we can help bring them down | Climate Council.

It often feels like they are "evil" because the consequences of their mistakes are so devastating for regular people, while they remain insulated from the winter bills and grocery prices they've helped create. The "evil" or "incompetent" view isn't just about people it's about a system that has run out of roads. It could be debt, money or resources that bring the whole thing down.

"Collapse is considered a breakup of institutions and entire socio-economies says Wolfram Elsner is Professor of Economics (retired). Collapse has accompanied socio-economic history, but seems to have become more topical again in recent decades."

Whether viewed as a cautionary tale from the past or a looming shadow over our future, the study of collapse serves as a vital reminder: the systems we depend on are only as resilient as the foundations we choose to protect.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
As to my question yesterday, Chinese explicitly state that they are intending to keep buying Iranian oil:



Their Ministry of Foreign Affairs made a similar statement. We will see what happens. Today, only one oil-related vessel (at least with transponders on, though over the past few weeks these numbers are mostly confirmed by the satellite-obsessed guys)) passed through the strait, Chinese from UAE:



US Energy Secretary anticipates traffic normalization in the coming weeks:



His anticipation is probably related to this:



Trump gave Iran another two weeks (he really likes a fortnight) today to make a deal, but went “soft”, without civilization and the like, just bad consequences or whatever he said. Reports also indicated today that the deal the Americans were offering in Islamabad to Iran is freeze on any enrichment for 20 years, while Iran insisted on 5. I guess the common conclusion is no enrichment period is off the table. Some expressed outrage about that, including Senator Graham, FDD, this guy:



He also has a strategy to achieve his goal::




Israel, via its ambassador to Italy, strongly condemns the reality and says it is hard to prove whether it is AI or real in the comments to the post:



The photo used for the cover:



To his credit, he didn’t play the antisemite card. Others did though. A little on that and the opposing views, as well the cover itself, can be read here:


Some photos stick through time, like the Terror of War (aka The Napalm Girl), The Tank Man, etc because they capture only a moment in history but depict an entire period.


Edit: Of note, Wright’s “in the coming weeks” is too late for the seeding season in North America.
 
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Meriv90

Active Member
They are trying to Blame shifting because they fired for the N° time on Italian UN mission

Italy summons Israeli ambassador after shots fired at UN in Lebanon | Reuters

Israel policies, were able to eclipse the Neo-ottoman politics from Turkey(that historically for us italians are kinda more dangerous since we share the same sphere of influence, and viceversa for them), sometimes i catch myself thinking positively of Ankara...and i realize how ridiculous is the situation.
 

Ikimieli

New Member
The one thing i am wondering. Why would they not do what they do now ?

There is no country that is ready to build any other infrastructure than Fossil Fuels.

They will pay whatever price you ask from them and never look other options.

The only thing that will change is that they whine more, but they will pay whatever you ask after you are in a position to dictate the market.

So why not do it ?

There is absolutely no downside in it. No one will even attempt to build any other infrastructure no matter what you do so that option is out of the table. The demand on Fossil Fuels will only go up no matter what you do so what you do can not alter the rise of demand. It can only alter the available supply, which you are able to control.

You can whine all you want that what you do is this and that. But you will never start to seek other options than Fossil Fuel. So who is the one to blame ? The one who asks you now more, or the one who always pays whatever they ask, and never even think of other options ?

So what if gallon of fuel will cost you 20 dollar. Would you not pay it ? You will. And then you will double down on it, and buy your son a combustion engine too.

And then if you have a famine because of the fuel price, you will still do nothing, and only action you take is whine about it and pay what they ask.

So why exactly should they not be doing this, if the whole world will eat from their hand no matter what they do ?

1. Sanction all other parties that sell oil.

2. Conquer any other places that produce oil.

3. If you cannot conquer a place that produce and sell oil, then destroy their oil infrastructure, blockade them and make them destroy all other regional infrastructure from your competitors that also sell oil.

Check. You control now all of the oil market and the rest of the world, even those places that do not produce oil, will only answer on starting to build more fossil fuel infrastructure for you. The demand only grows and you are the one dictating the market.

In a way, they are not the cause in this. But you, consumers are.

You have exactly two options in your mind:

1. Pay what they ask.
2. First whine, and then pay what they ask.
 
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