Middle East Defence & Security

[wild_Willie2]

If Iran says the strait is closed, which tanker captain will take the risk of crossing the strait, even if Iran appears to be "weak"? Iran just needs to appear to be a credible threat in order to cause a lot of economic pain. We saw what the Houthis could do with just a fraction of the area denial weapons that Iran has at its exposure. So if Iran says that the strait is " closed", no commercial captain in his right mind will try to cross it. The Lebanon campaign was only partially successful because Iran could not easily supply Hezbollah anymore because of the fall of Assad, but the dozen or so previous ground and air campaigns in Lebanon only led to constantly the same outcome as it will this time. A prolonged ceasefire in which both parties rearm. Assad only fell because 15 years of civil war left his army in tatters, not because of a prolonged bombing campaign. And lets not get started about Gaza, that peace of soil was bombed and shelled so many times over the last 40 years, with the only results being the breakout and massacre in 2023. Bombing campaigns do not bring fundamental changes, it can force countries to then negotiation table, but that's about it.

 

[Feanor]

We see a very weak response so far from Iran. They run out of rocket launchers and it also appears Irans navy is destroyed. You dont close the strait with rubber dinghys. Also large parts of the people in Iran absolute hate the regime. So lets see how things develop. And looking at the results Israel has pretty much destroyed all its enemies in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. None is able to pose a greater danger anymore. Thats why now Iran is ready to be taken down as endfight.

You can close the straight by firing missiles at any tanker that attempts to run it though... or by dumping piles of sea mines into it from any vessel you can get your hands on.

 

[Beltrami2005]

You can close the straight by firing missiles at any tanker that attempts to run it though... or by dumping piles of sea mines into it from any vessel you can get your hands on.

Sure they could do that, if they want to die. What we see so far look uncoordinated and chaotic. Irans response was weak. News come in that the Ayatollah is most likely dead. If true, thats great news and offers the Venezuela solution, there might be reasonable elements in the regime who want live.

Just confirmed..Chameinei has croaked out

Chameinei body found

 

[John Fedup]

Sure they could do that, if they want to die. What we see so far look uncoordinated and chaotic. Irans response was weak. News come in that the Ayatollah is most likely dead. If true, thats great news and offers the Venezuela solution, there might be reasonable elements in the regime who want live.

Just confirmed..Chameinei has croaked out

Chameinei body found

Will believe it when his body is shown, not some statement from the IOTUS. Certainly have no objection to his death though.

 

[35LMOS]

Will believe it when his body is shown, not some statement from the IOTUS. Certainly have no objection to his death though.

Iranian State Media claims he has, "passed."

https://www.axios.com/2026/02/28/iran-khamenei-killed-israel

 

[Ananda]

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, state media says

The US and Israel have launched a large scale attack on Iran, which President Trump says is an opportunity for Iranians to "take back their country".

www.bbc.com

The Iran State TV already announce Khameini death as martir.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

Nevertheless it is not mean change in regime will happen. Just like in Venezuela even Maduro being taken, no changes on regime that control, no matter what Venezuellan Diaspora in West claim regime changes soon.

Just like Iran, Khameini maybe gone, but his regime power still intact domestically. Parsi or Kurds diaspora jubilation in US and Euro does not mean it is the same within Iran. Too many believes on Diaspora believe is the same in real domestic.

 

[Beltrami2005]

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, state media says

The US and Israel have launched a large scale attack on Iran, which President Trump says is an opportunity for Iranians to "take back their country".

www.bbc.com

The Iran State TV already announce Khameini death as martir.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

Nevertheless it is not mean change in regime will happen. Just like in Venezuela even Maduro being taken, no changes on regime that control, no matter what Venezuellan Diaspora in West claim regime changes soon.

Just like Iran, Khameini maybe gone, but his regime power still intact domestically. Parsi or Kurds diaspora jubilation in US and Euro does not mean it is the same within Iran. Too many believes on Diaspora believe is the same in real domestic.

Lots of cheering in Tehran tho. Why you think we see so many people celebrating in Iran, that the Ayatollah is dead?

 

[Ananda]

Lots of cheering in Tehran tho. Why you think we see so many people celebrating in Iran, that the Ayatollah is dead?

I believe that if it is from reliable sources, not some Pahlevis diaspora or Israelis in social media that taken old video from other occasions and claim it is new one.

Besides overall middle east analyst already said, hunderds come to street is nothing, thousands is spectacle, hundreds thousands can be something, and Millions in street, then it is serious. Pahlevi regime and his supporters being kick out and become diaspora as tens of millions go to street, chase them, and change the Army stands. No signs of that.

 

[koxinga]

The groups with power in Iran comes from two blocks with guns, the regular armed forces (e.g Artesh) and the IRGC.

Protestors and external losers (e.g Pahlavi) can do nothing at the moment and Trump's America has little interest in a ground campaign. They want quick wins and headlines, not body bags.

The situation will evolve but if anyone is taking action to seize the government, it will be from those groups.

 

[Beltrami2005]

I believe that if it is from reliable sources, not some Pahlevis diaspora or Israelis in social media that taken old video from other occasions and claim it is new one.

Besides overall middle east analyst already said, hunderds come to street is nothing, thousands is spectacle, hundreds thousands can be something, and Millions in street, then it is serious. Pahlevi regime and his supporters being kick out and become diaspora as tens of millions go to street, chase them, and change the Army stands. No signs of that.

Hard cope lol. The regime is breaking apart. The entire leadership is dead including the not so supreme leader. We see chaotic and very limited counter strikes, which shows there is no intact command structure left.

What happens now is simple, there obvious are people very high in command in Iran who deliver Israel and USA information where the targets are, otherwise such precission strikes would be impossible. Those assets will form a new government simply because all the hostile elements get neutralized. The regime has so many enemies inside Iran, that it simply cant function anymore.

 

[Ananda]

The situation will evolve but if anyone is taking action to seize the government, it will be from those groups

Exactly, few hundreds or even tens thousands protestors still unsufficient against an long term entrached regime. It has been proven on last protests. Has to be significant changes on Armed Forces and IRGC or one of them to create significant challanges to the Regime.

Just like Venezuella, the regime uncontested domestically, and they are less entranched compare to Iranian Regime. I watch all those diaspora channels, making X, Redit, Insta, Youtube and FB video from Iranian restaurants in LA or Euro or dancing in their neighbourhood, and claimimg this is genuine Iranian domestic movement.

Like the analysts put, if Tens Millions goes to streets, make national blockades, then perhaps cam drove change stances in Armed Forces like in 70's that drove Pahlevis and supporters become diaspora until now. Sporadic protests already happen in Iran for years, and it does not change much that matter on the ground.

 

[Ananda]

Hard cope lol. The regime is breaking apart. The entire leadership is dead including the not so supreme leader. We see chaotic and very limited counter strikes, which shows there is no intact command structure left.

You continue show yourself talking on ranting, and can not be considered provide any serious discusion in this forum. Perhaps you should talk more in X. You have talking the regime breake apart for long time. Just like in Russian-Ukraine war more on opinions but not with solid evidances. Unless you only can say 'trust me bro', social media ranting.

Add:

https://x.com/i/status/2027690352111718694

This kind of thing, only handfull of people, and mostly done in Kurdish neighbourhood, does not shown evidence of lot off organise opposition movement.



If something like this happen continously for months like in 70's, then there's evidence something serious going to happen to change Armed Forces stance with the regime. Like in Venezuella, Iran regimes still hold strong on their Armed Forces. Few days protest recently also not means anything yet.

 

[Beltrami2005]

You continue show yourself talking on ranting, and can not be considered provide any serious discusion in this forum. Perhaps you should talk more in X. You have talking the regime breake apart for long time. Just like in Russian-Ukraine war more on opinions but not with solid evidances. Unless you only can say 'trust me bro', social media ranting.

Add:

https://x.com/i/status/2027690352111718694

This kind of thing, only handfull of people, and mostly done in Kurdish neighbourhood, does not shown evidence of lot off organise opposition movement.

View attachment 54372

If something like this happen continously for months like in 70's, then there's evidence something serious going to happen to change Armed Forces stance with the regime. Like in Venezuella, Iran regimes still hold strong on their Armed Forces. Few days protest recently also not means anything yet.

People are nothing but organic matter amigo. Venezuela by now is a american proxy simply because the regime sold out Maduro and now cashs in with the US and does evrything as ordered.

Same will happen in Iran.

How you think 160 spaniards took controle over the Inka empire?

Take the elite out and funnel the masses into your channel. The entire leadership is dead. The ones alive are the ones who sold Khameinei to the americans

Your naive thinking is amusing in that regard. You seriously believe the bio matter that follows the orders to be sentinent on its own...

Now that the leadership got destroyed its important to further neutralize the launch pads and marine infrastructure. The effect is already visible, since less and less rockets are launched by Iran and its defense appears very limited and erratic.

Btw im suprised how retarded the Ayatollah was. They really believed he is save at day because so far evry attack happened at night.

On a sidenote it feels absolute great to see all those anti west hellholes croak out. We allowed them to exist far too long which led to the situation we have now.

 

[koxinga]

People are nothing but organic matter amigo. Venezuela by now is a american proxy simply because the regime sold out Maduro and now cashs in with the US and does evrything as ordered.

Same will happen in Iran.

How you think 160 spaniards took controle over the Inka empire?

Take the elite out and funnel the masses into your channel. The entire leadership is dead. The ones alive are the ones who sold Khameinei to the americans

Your naive thinking is amusing in that regard. You seriously believe the bio matter that follows the orders to be sentinent on its own...

Now that the leadership got destroyed its important to further neutralize the launch pads and marine infrastructure. The effect is already visible, since less and less rockets are launched by Iran and its defense appears very limited and erratic.

Btw im suprised how retarded the Ayatollah was. They really believed he is save at day because so far evry attack happened at night.

On a sidenote it feels absolute great to see all those anti west hellholes croak out. We allowed them to exist far too long which led to the situation we have now.

@Beltrami2005 - much of what you have posted so far are low quality with shallow commentary along the lines of:

(TDLR) "Putin / Russia sucks, Orban / Hungary sucks, Iran sucks, their race and culture sucks and they can all die for all I care, and YEAH, demoracy wins!"

Here, we strive for informed, well sourced observations as well commentary that can be fact checked or at least logical. If it sucks, why? Who replaces them? what are the local, international and regional consequences?

Second, we WILL disagree on the politics or have different biases, but called people biomass and organic matter is disrespectful.

As a Spaniard, you could offer some observations on how your great country have consistently not met NATO contribution targets Why Spain is not meeting NATO spending targets

To better engaged, you can consider the following reading materials:

• Theory of International Politics, Kenneth Waltz - this is the basis of most modern neoclassic realism that drives and underpins global politics in the last 70 years
• The Tragedy of Great Power Politics - currently, IR has shifted more towards offensive realism as postulated by John Mearsheimer
• Books on System Theory (Weltman (1973) - which describes the interplay of different components in geopolitics
• Books on the Peace of Westphalian - the peace that was negotiated at the end of the 30 year war is fundamental in the establishment of modern state structures and. concepts of sovereignty

 

[Beltrami2005]

@Beltrami2005 - much of what you have posted so far are low quality with shallow commentary along the lines of:

(TDLR) "Putin / Russia sucks, Orban / Hungary sucks, Iran sucks, their race and culture sucks and they can all die for all I care, and YEAH, demoracy wins!"

Here, we strive for informed, well sourced observations as well commentary that can be fact checked or at least logical. If it sucks, why? Who replaces them? what are the local, international and regional consequences?

Second, we WILL disagree on the politics or have different biases, but called people biomass and organic matter is disrespectful.

As a Spaniard, you could offer some observations on how your great country have consistently not met NATO contribution targets Why Spain is not meeting NATO spending targets

To better engaged, you can consider the following reading materials:

• Theory of International Politics, Kenneth Waltz - this is the basis of most modern neoclassic realism that drives and underpins global politics in the last 70 years
• The Tragedy of Great Power Politics - currently, IR has shifted more towards offensive realism as postulated by John Mearsheimer
• Books on System Theory (Weltman (1973) - which describes the interplay of different components in geopolitics
• Books on the Peace of Westphalian - the peace that was negotiated at the end of the 30 year war is fundamental in the establishment of modern state structures and. concepts of sovereignty

The first three books you mentioned are not worth reading because they are the very fundament of the failed politics in the last 80 years.

We depended far too much on diplomacy and other nonsense. Because of that conflicts smolder and never concluded. Look at Gaza for example which remained a conflict for decades because it was never concluded. Or how Iran was allowed to fester as cancerous tumor in the region for decades.

It was high time to move back to methods that always worked. When you win a war you have to completly break the enemy.

Thutmoses III and Amenhotep II completly wiped out Meggido to the point it couldnt resist anymore. Alexander the Great did same with Thebes.

Caesar showed no mercy to the Gauls. We spanish won Mexico by completly oblitering Tenochtitlan even after the Mexica surrendered.

Israel showed in Gaza that the old ways work. And USA will show it in Iran as well.

So while you send me books from losers who never saw actual battle, let me give you a list of books worth reading:

de bello gallico - Julius Caesar

the war annals of Thutmoses III

Letters of Hernán Cortés


Those are experts who actually concluded wars and conflicts. Not some laughable professers who never hold a weapon in their life and teach the failed diplomacy of the last 80 years.

 

[Feanor]

Hard cope lol. The regime is breaking apart. The entire leadership is dead including the not so supreme leader. We see chaotic and very limited counter strikes, which shows there is no intact command structure left.

What happens now is simple, there obvious are people very high in command in Iran who deliver Israel and USA information where the targets are, otherwise such precission strikes would be impossible. Those assets will form a new government simply because all the hostile elements get neutralized. The regime has so many enemies inside Iran, that it simply cant function anymore.

You say the counterstrikes are limited. How do the current strikes compare in volume and target selection to the last time the US and Israel decided to pummel Iran?

You claim the entire leadsrship is dead. Do you have any evidence to support this maximalist claim?

 

[Ananda]

Your naive thinking is amusing in that regard. You seriously believe the bio matter that follows the orders to be sentinent on its own...

Now that the leadership got destroyed its important to further neutralize the launch pads and marine infrastructure. The effect is already visible, since less and less rockets are launched by Iran and its defense appears very limited and erratic.

NAIVE ?? You clearly delusional with 'social media' thinking and not reality logics. Human being whereever they come for, are working on the situation environment. Something that simply not comprehend by your nonsense logic. As for your Inka reference, take another real look on recent finding why they are collapsing.

Again where the prove the leadership already destroyed ? The country still running and provide their own coordinate response.You simply can not differentiate the reality with your social media fantasy mindset. You are digressing from talking on grass root rebelion (and since has no prove on that), now talking Iran will be US slave like Venezuella. Clearly delusional since both of them still not following US as slave. US still not control Venezuella oil infrastructure in reality, so also not going to get that on Iran.

Unless they put boots on the ground and getting involve on another Iraq. Something Netanyahu wants, but clearly not US Congress. Or do you not understand to get into war, Trump nees Congress approval ??

 

[Beltrami2005]

You say the counterstrikes are limited. How do the current strikes compare in volume and target selection to the last time the US and Israel decided to pummel Iran?

You claim the entire leadsrship is dead. Do you have any evidence to support this maximalisy claim?

Yes

Ayatollah is dead, defense minister is dead, leader of the army is dead.

Here is the list:

1. Aziz Nasirzadeh, Minister of Defence and Armed Forces Logistics

Nasirzadeh was a key figure in Tehran's defence establishment.

2. Mohammad Shirazi, Chief of Military Bureau of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei

He was eliminated in the attack. He has been with the Bureau since 1989, reported the Times Of Israel.

As per the IDF, Shirazi was responsible for “the liaison between the senior commanders of the armed forces and the leader, and was a central figure in the top ranks of the Iranian terror regime, the Times of Israel report added.

3. Ali Samkhani, Supreme Leader's Advisor for Security Affairs and Secretary of the Defense Council

He was a former IRGC Navy chief and Iranian army chief. He was also among the top advisers to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

4. Hossein Jabal Amelian, Chairman of the SPND

Hossein Jabal-Amelian, as per IDF, was responsible for “developing advanced technologies and weapons for the regime” and advanced “projects for years in the fields of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons,” reported

5. Mohammad Pakpour, Chief of the IRGC

Mohammad Pakpour was responsible for missile and drone attacks on Israel, supporting Iran's proxy groups, and “effectively commanded the violent suppression of Iranian protesters during the internal protests last month,” the report added.

6. Reza Mozafari-Nia, former chairman of SPND

Reza Mozafari-Nia “advanced efforts to develop nuclear weapons,” reported The Times of Israel.

7. Salah Asadi, Head of Intelligence of Khatem Alanbieh Command

He was a senior intelligence officer of Iran's armed forces' general staff.

The grand price of course is the unsupreme leader.

As for the counter strikes, they are a shadow of what happened last June.

• Degraded Retaliation: The rate and scale of Iran's recent missile barrages against Israel suggest that efforts to destroy launch pads and stockpiles are having an effect. Iran is reportedly struggling to coordinate large-scale salvos, firing only 2–4 missiles per barrage in some areas.

We should note, that Iran isnt a country able for coordinated tactics. Its a country where the capital is close to collapse because they cant manage water supply.

On such countries no ground troops are needed. You simply bomb their infrastructure into system failure.

The effect could be seen on the prototype, once Nasrallah was killed by Israel and the infrastructure destroyed, Hezbollah was unable to be a threat.

Same will be in Iran. They have a limited number of launchpads and their high command is dead.

The west pretty much rules the sky over Iran and can freely discard of any individuals that acts hostile. At some point evolution kicks in, the radicals die and the softer ones prevail. Iran is getting domesticated because the radicals get removed from the flock.

 

[Beltrami2005]

NAIVE ?? You clearly delusional with 'social media' thinking and not reality logics. Human being whereever they come for, are working on the situation environment. Something that simply not comprehend by your nonsense logic. As for your Inka reference, take another real look on recent finding why they are collapsing.

Again where the prove the leadership already destroyed ? The country still running and provide their own coordinate response.You simply can not differentiate the reality with your social media fantasy mindset. You are digressing from talking on grass root rebelion (and since has no prove on that), now talking Iran will be US slave like Venezuella. Clearly delusional since both of them still not following US as slave. US still not control Venezuella oil infrastructure in reality, so also not going to get that on Iran.

Unless they put boots on the ground and getting involve on another Iraq. Something Netanyahu wants, but clearly not US Congress. Or do you not understand to get into war, Trump nees Congress approval ??

lol

Venezuela, U.S. Strike $2 Billion Oil Export Deal

 

[koxinga]

Those are experts who actually concluded wars and conflicts. Not some laughable professers who never hold a weapon in their life and teach the failed diplomacy of the last 80 years.

Said failed diplomacy largely kept the world away from self destruction and WW3 during the Cold War, and your laughable professors (Waltz, Mearsheimer) actually served in the military.

Most of us, who have served (myself included) would never willingly see war as a solution and human lives as garbage.

But then again @Beltrami2005, who himself have probably not served a day in the underfunded Spanish armed forces has the solution that we all missed, which is essentially, kill them all.