Middle East Defence & Security

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Interesting, perhaps there's a split between the elected government and Supreme Leader, even if it's a small one.
It's very common for propagandists to issue conflicting statements. Confusion is a feature. It helps redirect the crowd to a "trustworthy authority".

I also believe Iran has an interest in aligning with Trump's narrative to affect public opinion in the US that the job is done and that further American intervention would be political, not practical.
 

"Iran's foreign minister has admitted that "excessive and serious" damage was done to the country's nuclear sites in the recent US and Israeli bombings.

Abbas Araghchi told a state broadcaster on Thursday evening that an assessment of the damage is being carried out by the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran.

But, just hours earlier, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the strikes did not disrupt the country's nuclear programme. Khamenei was responding to US President Donald Trump's assertion that the bombs had "totally obliterated" three nuclear sites. Khamenei said the US attacks had failed to "accomplish anything significant".

The supreme leader, who has been in hiding since the war with Israel began on 13 June, insisted that Trump had "exaggerated" the impact of the bombs, and declared victory over the US and Israel.

But Araghchi's remarks create a different impression."

...


Interesting, perhaps there's a split between the elected government and Supreme Leader, even if it's a small one.
I think it's important to remember who these statements are pointed at: the Supreme Leader is focused on a domestic audience, and it is in his best interest to project strength and downplay any enemy accomplishments.

The foreign minister is focused on an external audience, and it is in his best interest to play up the success of the strikes in order to give the impression that Iran is crippled and no further action is needed.

The truth remains obscured by design.
 
Why doesn't the US attack China now? Or attack Russia in 2022? Could really turn this into a 1 month war instead of the 3+ years it is now.
The reason is casus belli. Another is deterrent. Both are nuclear nations, and Iran had a significant conventional capability before October 7th 2023, pointed at Israel from 7 directions, including ground invasion from 2-3 of those.
You cannot just attack a nation without a casus belli. It is important not only for gathering international support, but also for domestic support which for some nations is about as crucial, if not more, than the military aspect.
Russia had to build up for years the "nazi Ukraine" narrative.
China had been talking about a unified China for decades.
Israel achieved its casus belli properly only after October 7th 2023.
Otherwise it would risk entering the deadliest war in its history with no foreign support.
Well you answered your own questions regarding Russia and China, ground invasion? With what, paragliders? How did the Israel achieve casus belli on Iran, did Iran attack Israel on October 7th when nobody was looking, and if the support for Hamas is enough does that mean Russia has casus belli on the entire western world and can attack any of them legally.

I used an example that I thought you would find familiar. I guess it wasn't.
Another example would be a Russian invasion into Ukraine in 2014 instead of 2022. Would have been so much easier. But one could wonder why not do it back in 1991.

You can see that even after so much waiting, Israel was able to crush every forecast and emerge from this war with very little homefront damage, while crushing Iran's conventional and nuclear capabilities, and its proxies.
In one of the IDF's early briefings about the campaign in Iran, they said Iran planned a massive expansion of missile production capability, to quickly multiply its missile stocks within a few years.
You used fiction not an example, so Iran didn't have significant conventional capabilities to seriously endanger Israel. You have to choose one of these, both cannot go together.

Regardless of validity
This should be Israeli's battle slogan.

Then I can confirm you don't remember.
Possible.

So you once again shifted the argument to historical revisionism?
What exactly didn't happen the way I described it? Didn't Israel start ground invasion? Didn't it only managed a shallow penetration, didn't reports of heavy resistance started flooding in, what did I get wrong?

What's that name?
I'm sure you can figure it out.

So your argument is a legal one now?
Israel and Iran have been in a state of armed conflict for decades through proxies, which has been an accepted norm for even longer than that.
Every confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah is also one with Iran, via proxy.
Every confrontation with the Houthis and Iraqi PMF and Assad's Syria, were also that.
Again either Iran is this major force threatening Israel or it isn't, pick one. Apparently according to you Iran was so weak that Israel eliminated it as a threat in ten days but also at the same time was fighting proxy wars with Israel for decades sponsoring multiple foreign militias and even governments.

But if it is direct confrontation that you seek then look no further than April 2024, when Iran fired >350 missiles and drones at Israel, from Iran proper.
Not in response to an Israeli attack on Iran, but against an Iranian proxy in Syria.
No, Israel bombed Iranian embassy which is a sovereign territory of Iran so Israel was again an aggressor

Of its own initiative? 0.
Really 0? Not counting anything else, didn't Israel just attack Iran

And in Israel "only" 28 were killed by Iran.
Solid ratio and big L for Iran.
I cant believe it, you are actually cheering for death of innocent people, whatever propaganda you are listening to has completely dehumanized your perceived enemies, it is actually frightening.

Clearing the facility of hostiles is a major show of competence for both the ground team and aerial team providing CAS.
Again nobody was defending those facilities, but a nice training exercise all the same.

It achieved its goals. Between non-peer adversaries, there is usually a point where returns are diminishing. Yet expenses grow or remain unchanged.
At that point it's usually best to stop.
Yes similar to Americans or Soviets in Afghanistan at some point it's best just to stop.

Leaving nothing of Iran is not a war objective. To the contrary. Many economical assets were left intact to avoid antagonizing the general Iranian population should they choose to initiate an uprising in the future. Israel's relationship with a post-revolution Iran are strategically important.
So regime change is one of the goals but it just wasn't the goal now? You think Iranian population is not "antagonized" by Israel?

To the contrary. Every claim or argument you challenged, I responded to with facts, numbers, statistics, or footage.
You have yet to present any shred of evidence to any of your claims.
You showed me a graph whose source explains everything that is needed to know about it. I'm not sure if you know this but Israel came up with an exact number of missiles your graph shows 631. Funny how the media managed to get every single launch on tape, I mean I get some of them maybe even most of them but every single one? I'm starting to think that the people who "independently" gathered this information are sitting in Mossad offices.

What restrictions on oil exports were lifted?
Here, around 6 minute 40 second mark

You said Israel entered a predetermined, lost war, that all its military objectives were impossible to achieve, and that Iran inflicted serious damage upon Israel.
You do realize that what I have written can be read, I said that Israel has not achieved its goals and I stand by it, again never have I compared nor quantified the damages either side was taking.

If you wanna be offended, go ahead. I can't make your decisions for you.
No, not offended, just nice having a conversation without personal insults.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Because it has also not claimed to have set that as an objective.
Here's a translated list of objectives, in order of presentation:
  1. Significantly damage Iran's nuclear program.
  2. Significantly damage Iran's missile program.
  3. Damage the "Axis of Resistance".
  4. Create conditions for long term neutralization of Iran's nuclear program via political means.
If you don't believe me you can auto-translate this:

The difference between "significantly damage Iran's missile program" and "destroyed all of Iran's ballistic missile production capability", is that absolutists don't usually succeed as officers, let alone make it into senior, decision making positions.

The 4th objective should definitely sound odd to absolutists who think every military action, particularly Israeli, should be measured in a binary success/failure, and who mistakenly assume Israeli over-militancy.
But it is in fact a recurring theme in Israeli war planning that military action should be a tool for a political solution, and not the other way around.


Can you please explain to me the physics of underground damage being more apparent on satellite imagery by simply waiting?
Can you also explain to me how is waiting while in war is different from waiting while not in war?
I'm not sure I understand your question on physics of underground waiting ,Israel will certainly monitor further actions of Iran ,political solutions may not be so readily achieved if Israel is under reliant on foreign allies support ,certainly Trumps outburst over the ceasefire comes to mind
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I'm not sure I understand your question on physics of underground waiting ,Israel will certainly monitor further actions of Iran ,political solutions may not be so readily achieved if Israel is under reliant on foreign allies support ,certainly Trumps outburst over the ceasefire comes to mind
This is your original comment:
even nuclear development sites whilst damaged above ground cannot be verified for below ground with absolute certainty , if these were the goals then the campaign stopped to soon certainly making it clear the resumption of production would lead to further hostilities should of been made clear to the Iranian leadership
You said damage cannot be verified by looking above ground, so the campaign stopped too soon.

Hence, if the campaign lasted longer - there would be higher certainty of damage?

Or did you mean something else?

@Karl Franz I am not going to answer all that. It is clear you have some political bias that forces you to write counter-factually.
I am glad to answer questions, but I will not waste my time on stubborn falsification.
 
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