Middle East Defence & Security

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Aren't Palestinian Territory elections due soon as well? It could be Hamas and PIJ electioneering as well. I gather that not all of the voters are happy with them so there maybe some backlash in the ballot box. However the average Palestinian voter doesn't really have a lot of choice and they need something to help stir things in order to induce change.
I thought it might be electioneering, but then the IDF would probably deploy more troops to the Gaza region. If it is, then Hamas may be doing this, as usual, in response to internal politics - the PA is set to announce a delay in elections in the coming days.


I think that if the Israeli government did something totally unexpected and say the Jewish political parties worked with the Israeli Arab party in the Knesset by bringing them into a governing coalition may just be the start. It's not a quick fix, but maybe the start to a long term change in the Palestinian mindset.
That's long done. There are Arabs in key positions in the IDF, in the government, even some ministers. Cooperation with Arab parties (note: there are multiple Arab parties with more differences between themselves than with non-Arab ones) and combined Jewish-Arab parties (only one party describes itself as such but the biggest parties also have Arab MKs).
The problem was never there.
Heck, if it was even relevant, the various Palestinian governments would actually care about their people, in which case any sort of warfare would not be even considered, let alone versus a much more powerful state actor.

The trick is to convince the Palestinians that these Israeli Arab politicians will advance their cause within the government.
Yeah, maybe once in a while there's like, one MK who cares about the Palestinian cause just for the sake of more votes, but like every Arab government anywhere, they don't really give a damn. They also have to tone down that speech to actually cooperate with others, because while many people outside Israel view the two people as inseparable, the Israeli and Palestinian publics, and their respective governments, see each other as entirely separate and foreign entities.
So in Israel, a politician advancing something for the Palestinians, would be viewed much like a German politician talking about how to help the French people rather than the Germans.

If the Abraham Accord nations could be bought onboard to help and other outside groups as well, the possibility that an eventual peace could be reached between the State of Israel and the Palestinian State.
The UAE and KSA were and possibly still are significant foreign players in the Palestinian elections - they support a contender named Mohammed Dahlan, former head of the PA's Preventive Security Force, and he is seen as a resourceful player. He was officially banned from running, but time will see.

Dahlan will be a very good negotiations partner for Israel, as he played a part in the UAE-Israel peace deal.


that may encourage more moderate political movements within the Palestinian Nation. The end result would be less Hamas and less Iranian involvement.
That's not up to the Palestinian people to decide. Hamas and Iran want power. And they will crush whatever resistance that rises.


And to the rest I will not reply for fear it will become too political.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
This is quite suddenly.
I wonder what is his real motivation, because for many years for him Iran is the number 1 enemy.
Not just him. Saudi Arabia and Iran have been fighting a cold war for almost a century. There hasn't been any event that could make good relations viable, so I assume it's just two enemies under immense pressure who want a small ceasefire for a while to catch their breath.
Iran is now facing a new political crisis on top of ever worsening economy, and Saudi Arabia can't seem to either make gains against Houthis, or even defend its economical assets.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Almost a century? Rather less than that. Before commercial quantities of oil was found in Saudi Arabia I think it hardly registered with Iran as even a potential rival. Too poor, too few people . . . And the Saudis couldn't really consider any kind of opposition to Iran beyond words & appealing to friendly countries for help. It took a few decades after that before the Saudis counted for anything.

The stand off really began with the fall of the last shah in 1979.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
The Shia/Sunni divide has been around for ages but you’re absolutely correct in saying that things only took a turn for the worst after 1979. Prior to that the Arabs had no issues with Iran being the regional power; it was something they accepted. Sure Iran under the Shah had territorial and other disputes with the Sunni Arabs but it was manageable.

Had the Shah stayed in power; Iran might eventually have become a nuclear power; he publicly stated that this was his intent. The irony is that when the Mullahs came to power; they discontinued the nuclear programme on the grounds it was unIslamic and a waste of resources (lucky for them they scrapped a plan to sell the F-14s which served them well during the war with Iraq). They only revived it years later when they received word that Saddam was making progress with his programme and the West was turning a blind eye.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Almost a century? Rather less than that. Before commercial quantities of oil was found in Saudi Arabia I think it hardly registered with Iran as even a potential rival. Too poor, too few people . . . And the Saudis couldn't really consider any kind of opposition to Iran beyond words & appealing to friendly countries for help. It took a few decades after that before the Saudis counted for anything.

The stand off really began with the fall of the last shah in 1979.
You are correct.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Hamas seems to blame Israel for the expected delay in Palestinian elections.
The PA seeks to get an approval from Israel to let East Jerusalem Palestinians to vote in the Palestinian elections.
In Israel this is seen as a difficult topic for a multitude of security and political reasons alike, including the possibility that an election would result in a Hamas win.
Therefore Israel has not yet replied on the matter, and with its own political crisis, it may face more delays in delivering a formal response.

This is a perfect opportunity for Hamas - it's a solid casus belli for them, and Israel in the meantime is busy untangling its political mess.


In the meantime, the northern threat (Hezbollah, Syria, Iran) may soon get a strong boost in their capabilities.
This may be RUMINT, but still sounds plausible. Biden admin is set to relieve Iran from many of its most significant sanctions, including those not related to the nuclear program.
Iran, with a large population and growth room, and an immense amount of natural resources, coupled with the ability to successfully progress technological projects, has the ability to become a regional economical power with ease, should the current sanctions be lifted.

That of course means more resources can be dedicated to its regional terror activities, in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Afghanistan, Iraq, and more.

It will also remove much of the public criticism against the regime's foreign activities, especially important now that the IRGC is under unprecedented levels of scrutiny.

It may also explain some renewed attempts at rapprochement between the KSA and Iran, as the KSA is already disadvantaged versus Iran, and may now become even more significantly disadvantaged.

One more point to worry about is that if it goes through, the deal may bring Iran even closer to the bomb, by giving it more resources to dedicate to the covert R&D and production of nuclear infrastructure it had conducted during the first JCPOA. Effectively meaning the bomb is offset perhaps by a few years, but the breakout period will be substantially reduced.


Finally, why am I posting Iran-related stuff in this thread? Because specifically this event may create a regional shockwave, affecting every middle eastern country, not only Iran and the strait.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I can't find a better place to put it so:
As of the time of writing this, around 150 rockets have been fired from Gaza into Israel in a span of 5 hours.
They were aimed primarily at cities around Gaza, but some were fired at Jerusalem. Iron Dome has so far worked as intended.

There are many different reasons that could be raised for the recent flare-up, and very logical ones, but IDF officials have yet to voice their opinions on the matter. At least from my observation.

This escalation is unlike any we've seen in recent years, despite pressure on Hamas from Arab states to deescalate, and even a USNC gathering.
We're likely headed toward another war in Gaza.

One notable difference from past exchanges is that Hamas is more forceful both in quantities of munitions, and in their variety. This time they are using not only improved rockets but also masses of explosives and incendiary balloons for ecological and agricultural terror, and also because they're much easier to sneak past conventional air defenses.

At the same time, Israel is being unusually lax in its response. The number of airstrikes can be counted on one hand.

It's very interesting how both abnormalities in responses coincide. There is perhaps more than it meets the eye here.
Either way, I'm far from the center for the next few days so no bomb shelter for me, for now.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Hamas has been using the recent violence on the Temple Mount (a religious site visited by both Muslims and Jews) as an excuse to escalate. With multiple religious events aligning, violence is not about to calm down soon. Hamas has therefore issued yet another ultimatum - end the police closure of the temple mount, or face more rockets.
I therefore assume the mediation efforts have been fruitless, and further escalations are imminent.


Meanwhile, Hamas has scored a direct rocket hit on a residential building, no injuries. And IDF announces codename for large military operation, if it begins - Guardian of The Walls ('Shomer a Homot')
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 1 — Is Operation Guardian of The Walls the 1st real world test of ‘smart trigger’?

1. Hamas said it fired rockets at Israel, triggering warning sirens in Jerusalem and near the Gaza border, in an apparent response by the militant group to the injury of Palestinians in clashes with Israeli police outside Al-Aqsa Mosque.

2. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan spoke with his Israeli counterpart Meir Ben-Shabbat on 9 May 2021 (Sun) expressing "concern" about the violence on the compound where the Al-Aqsa Mosque is located, referred to as Haram al-Sharif in Islam and the Temple Mount in Judaism.
As of the time of writing this, around 150 rockets have been fired from Gaza into Israel in a span of 5 hours.

They were aimed primarily at cities around Gaza, but some were fired at Jerusalem. Iron Dome has so far worked as intended.

At the same time, Israel is being unusually lax in its response. The number of airstrikes can be counted on one hand.
3. The Israeli military campaign in response to ongoing rocket fire from Gaza has resulted in some very clear Iron Dome footage of interceptions of these rockets that was fired at the city of Ashkelon — illustrating the importance of IDF’s C-RAM capability to defend against and defeat indirect fire threats, like rockets.

4. Given that Gaza is home to 1.8 million Palestinians, it is difficult to conduct air strikes against Hamas or groups like the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) without a lot of ISR. The armed wing of PIJ is Al-Quds Brigades, which is active in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
(a) From an use of appropriate technology perspective, there must be multiple platoons of UAVs like the Hermes 900 Kochavs and the Herons (Machatz-1) flying orbits over Gaza for ISR purposes. Modeling and simulation are required to understand the complex interaction of systems within dense urban terrain. Urban systems modeling is a staff process of creating detailed terrain estimates of urban environments and combining them with conceptual, agent-based, and system dynamics models to simulate the dynamic complexity of a given cityscape.​
(b) Urban systems modeling is inherently and heavily reliant on the intelligence warfighting function since the detail required to develop urban systems models is derived from intelligence collection and displayed. Traditional display methods however, do not provide sufficient detail. This necessitates expertise in modelling and simulation be combined with environmental intelligence products.​
(c) Increasingly, the IDF will use a networked combat system (in an urban scenario), to enable IDF air strikes, artillery or use of loitering munitions against rocket and balloon launch sites. Fire Weaver, locally known as ‘smart trigger’ applies AI algorithms, to process data and prioritizes fire allocation. It calculates the optimal shooter for each target while minimizing collateral damage, and applying the rules of engagement in real time, which is a particularly important remedy against low cost terrorist launched balloons launched from residential areas.​
(d) Detailed terrain estimates should catalog the characteristics of scale, density, threats, and context found within this complex urban terrain. These characteristics combine within Gaza to create complex interactions of agency, connectedness, and flow at an unprecedented scale between the environment, its population, and Hamas’ forces operating within it. Some of these interactions occur at an appreciable rhythm which can be observed, predicted, and simulated. These interactive simulations would allow IDF commanders to test various strategic, operational, and tactical approaches.​
(e) The ‘smart trigger’ system also processes all options against different rules and restrictions – including safety limits, keep-out zones, rules of engagement or legal aspects. Given that Fire Weaver can process multiple requests and multiple fires simultaneously, it is well suited to sense and attack fleeting targets.​

There is perhaps more than it meets the eye here.

Either way, I'm far from the center for the next few days so no bomb shelter for me, for now.
Stay safe.

5. The latest attack comes after the IDF said on 10 May 2021 that an anti-tank missile was launched from Gaza into Israel, where an Israeli civilian in a nearby vehicle was lightly injured and evacuated to a hospital for further medical treatment. Not sure if it is Hamas or PIJ that is responsible, as the armed wing of PIJ (the Al-Quds Brigades) is active in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Q1: Has any ground operations commenced in Operation Guardian of The Walls?

or

Q2: Is it still limited to a handful of air strikes only?
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Q1: Has any ground operations commenced in Operation Guardian of The Walls?
No ground operations yet.

Q2: Is it still limited to a handful of air strikes only?
But it is no longer a handful of airstrikes.

It is no Operation Black Belt of November 2019, but there was still a meaningful number of strikes - 130. Yet, these seem retaliatory, and relatively few high value targets are hit.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
There is no way to describe this. There seems to be nation-wide despair about the government's supposed ineptitude.
Gov't officials are talking both about conducting strikes at max tempo so long as the international legitimacy to fight exists, and at the same time the tempo of strikes is very low.

They claim to have destroyed 3 battalions of Hamas rocket units, yet Hamas is still able to put out massive fire. Central cities were targeted with hundreds of rockets.
This claim of 2 contradicting approaches is making the public lose faith in the government, especially after approval rates have sunk to an all time low even before the operation.

 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 2 — Is Operation Guardian of The Walls the 1st real world test of ‘smart trigger’?

6. Staff Sergeant Omer Tabib, a IDF soldier in the Nahal Brigade died when his jeep was hit by an anti-tank missile near the Gaza border — the 1st IDF soldier to be killed in this conflict. As expected, the IDF struck back by killing the ATGM team. In an earlier development, ISF announced on 11 May 2021 that:
“We just killed the commander of the Hamas anti-tank missile unit, Iyad Fathi Faik Sharir. He was in charge of carrying out anti-tank missile attacks on Israel.​

Our aircraft are currently striking additional terror targets in Gaza.”​

There is no way to describe this. There seems to be nation-wide despair about the government's supposed ineptitude.
7. This is understandable from a domestic politics angle, but there are bigger international relations issues, like rule-of-law in the eyes of the international community, that a domestic audience of a country under constant rocket attacks does not have patience for. I suspect that your own government knows that the past international support for Israel has evaporated thanks to Trump’s faulty approach to the Israel-Palestinian peace process.

8. Trump / Kushner’s one-sided peace proposal opened the door to Israel’s annexation of 30% of the West Bank. It was a veil of insincerity that Kushner thought he could broker. If anyone believed that the negotiated "peace plan" was real, they were just naive.
(a) This means that the conditions are so unbalanced that to bring the Palestinians back to the negotiating table, big concessions from Israel is required.​
(b) Trump’s faulty approach to the Israel-Palestinian peace process have set the stage where at the G-20, at EU, and within ASEAN, no diplomat from these countries can undertake any initiative to support Israel’s borderline illegal actions in the last 6 months (prior to the latest evictions as a trigger event) — understood correctly, Trump and Netanyahu degraded Israel’s security, not enhanced it.​
(c) The White House said on Tuesday that Israel has a legitimate right to defend itself from Hamas rocket attacks but applied pressure on Israel over the treatment of Palestinians, saying Jerusalem "must be a place of co-existence."​
9. The Palestinian side presents its own considerable challenges. Divided and dysfunctional, its leadership has lacked a coherent military or diplomatic strategy to end the occupation or negotiate a two-state solution. The split between Fatah and Hamas, the principal branches of the national movement, has meant that there are now two of everything—two statelets, two security services and at least two visions of what and even where a future Palestine should be.
Gov't officials are talking both about conducting strikes at max tempo so long as the international legitimacy to fight exists, and at the same time the tempo of strikes is very low.
10. Biden / Blinken are under pressure to describe Israel’s efforts to evict Palestinians from east Jerusalem as violating international law — as a first step before calling for a cease fire. Not sure how long Blinken can resist this pressure from the US Congress, given that Warren, one of Biden’s rivals in the 2020 presidential campaign, urged his administration to “make clear to the Israeli government that these evictions are illegal and must stop immediately.” Tweets critical of Israel came primarily from the left, progressive flank of the Democratic Party. Ocasio-Cortez, wrote that “Israeli forces are forcing families from their homes during Ramadan and inflicting violence. It is inhumane and the US must show leadership in safeguarding the human rights of Palestinians.”

11. This reflects a broader trend of Democrats being increasingly willing to criticize Israel, a country that once enjoyed widespread and solid bipartisan support on Capitol Hill.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 3 — Is Operation Guardian of The Walls the 1st real world test of ‘smart trigger’?

They claim to have destroyed 3 battalions of Hamas rocket units, yet Hamas is still able to put out massive fire. Central cities were targeted with hundreds of rockets.

This claim of 2 contradicting approaches is making the public lose faith in the government, especially after approval rates have sunk to an all time low even before the operation.
12. Ramping up air strikes alone is not the solution but Blinken’s priority (which is different from Israel’s priorities) is to reduce the total amount of casualties on both sides. Israeli artillery is also taking part in Operation Guardian of The Walls, and 3,000 reservists have been called up to bolster the forces on the Gaza border should the situation escalate further. BBC reports that at least 28 Palestinians and 3 women from Israel have been killed. To give a proper context, other news sources explained that the Israeli military said at least 16 of the dead were militants.

13. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said:

"We believe Palestinians and Israelis deserve equal measures of freedom, security, dignity and prosperity, and U.S. officials have in recent weeks spoken candidly to Israeli officials about how evictions of Palestinian families who have lived for years, sometimes decades, in their homes and how demolitions of these homes work against our common interests and achieving a solution to the conflict."​

The above statement shows the tremendous diplomatic pressure is being put on Israel to hold back on the scale of retaliation — this pressure is being applied because Israel has lost bipartisan support it once had on Capitol Hill. For details, read this article: “Critics urge Biden to step up as violence spreads in Israel.”

14. The Israeli public's support for a peace process has fluctuated dramatically since the signing of the Oslo Accords.
(a) The upswing of support followed the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. This support for the Oslo process was reversed in late Feb 1996, when a string of Hamas suicide bombings claimed scores of fatalities. The reversal was probably the reason that former Labor Party Prime Minister Peres and parties on the left lost the 1996 national elections to Likud leader Netanyahu.​
(b) In this May 2021 round of war, Hamas missiles being fired are more capable than those launched in the 2014 conflict, where the range is increased and the huge quantities are within intelligence estimates. I also suspect that Hamas tactics have changed. On average, Hamas is firing about 1 rocket every 3 mins in 2021 (which is a high tempo), and over 480 have been fired thus far — often firing large continuous salvos of rockets that are triggered remotely, after deployment. Of the 480 rockets fired, Iron Dome intercepted 200, and 150 fell within Gaza (as at 1935 hours on 11 May 2021).​
(c) Intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB) exploits this same dynamic to make a reasonable prediction of adversary behavior. IPB infers from the situation and adversary capability what courses of action (COAs) the adversary is likely to take. The underlying logic of decision making is the same whether an adversary is on the battlefield or an individual is fighting to survive.​
(d) From an international public relations angle and as part of IPB, the IDF is demonstrating to the world the scale of rocket, balloon, UAV and anti-tank missile attacks by Hamas, to regain international support for future Israeli ground operations, that may come. I suspect that the city-as-a-system perspective adoption has resulted in IDF adaptation; one tailored to address the unique operational data layers found within Gaza’s urban centers, their environmental dynamism, and their state of connectedness.​

15. In a nationally televised speech to his country on 11 May 2021 (Tues), Netanyahu said:

"We have just finished a consultation and assessment of the situation with the heads of the security establishment and we made decisions. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have paid and will pay a very heavy price for their aggression. I say here this evening: their blood is on their heads.​
...​

I tell you something else this evening: this campaign will take time. With determination, unity and strength, we will restore security to the citizens of Israel.”​

16. Earlier, Jen Psaki opened her daily news briefing with a statement about the situation, saying that President Joe Biden had just received an update from his national security team and that his primary focus was on de-escalation. In direct contrast to White House priorities, I believe that Israel needs to escalate the level of retaliation and should consider conducting limited ground operations as a mopping up step, to reduce the scale of rocket threat.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
@Big_Zucchini We have seen reports of Israeli far right and extreme Ultra Orthodox Jewish groups being involved in the street rioting and it's been suggested that they may have initiated it. According to independent reports these groups were broadcasting their intent prior to Jerusalem Day. If that is indeed the case, then maybe it's about time that those groups are restrained and held accountable for their actions. I know that this will be politically unacceptable but a line does have to be drawn. I also note that Ultra Orthodox adherents are exempt from service in the IDF and to me that is just patently wrong. It's a requirement of citizenship that you serve your country as well. They expect to be protected from the heathens but won't lift a finger to protect themselves, yet they are happy to incite the troubles. If that's the case tax them twice the amount non Ultra Orthodox are taxed - make them pay for the privilege.

It is my belief that you will have to clean house before you can advance towards some sort of arrangement with the Palestinians. There are radicals and extremists on both sides and all that you have achieved in the last 20 years is made the Palestinians hate you even more and given Hamas an entry and a strong foothold. The same old plans aren't working and in warfare any good strategist and tactician will look for different options. There has to be give and take and unfortunately Israel has been undertaking a significant amount of illegal taking of Palestinian territory by the building of illegal Jewish settlements on Palestinian land with the Israeli government generally turning a blind eye. I will ask you this. What if a group of Palestinians began building illegal settlements on Jewish land, would the Israeli reaction be? I know myself what it would be; quick and violent.

And that's my point as an outsider looking in. It's to get people to try and look past the walls they've forted themselves up in and look for alternatives that may help alleviate the situation and eventually lead to the road for peace. I am aware of your skills and abilities, so I know that you have the capability of putting yourself in the opponents head and analysing a situation from their viewpoint.

This is my challenge to you. Use all the skills, knowledge and expertise that you have gained over the years and undertake a rational assessment of a pathway to peace, given the political, cultural, and religious parameters that exist in both Israel and The Palestinian Territories today.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 4 — Is Operation Guardian of The Walls the 1st real world test of ‘smart trigger’?

...I am aware of your skills and abilities, so I know that you have the capability of putting yourself in the opponents head and analysing a situation from their viewpoint.

This is my challenge to you. Use all the skills, knowledge and expertise that you have gained over the years and undertake a rational assessment of a pathway to peace, given the political, cultural, and religious parameters that exist in both Israel and The Palestinian Territories today.
17. While from a certain political perspective you can blame Israel for Palestinian anger boiling over, from an objective view point, Hamas with its rocket, balloon, UAV and missile attacks is clearly the aggressor. Not sure if that peace is even possible given Hamas’ extremist ideology and the fact of the postponement of the May 2021 Palestinian legislative election. Any election by itself can trigger a war.

18. The conceptual framework for describing this 2021 battle between IDF and Hamas should move from describing the problem to how IDF can influence it via identification of environment centers of gravity (COG).
(i) Current COG application extends traditional COG analysis from one that is Hamas centric to one that embraces a systems approach, stemming from the premise that population, infrastructure, the physical environment, and information and systems of Hamas and its supporters to keep firing these rockets. This needs sustainment efforts.​
(ii) I believe IDF is gathering real time data of how the hidden missile factories are sustained — it’s not just a whack-a-mole approach of attacking launch sites but looking at longer term effects of how to disrupt the flow of explosive materials (and other dual use supplies) are smuggled by Iran and Turkey into Gaza. I speculate that the IDF announced tunnel destruction could be part of the successful intelligence driven efforts to disrupt a rocket factory’s production.​

19. Hamas’ use of the means of violence through the use of rocket and balloon attacks on Israel gained them a large following in Gaza. This populist approach followed the strategy of consolidating power in a charismatic leader, like Ismail Haniyeh (as Head of Hamas political bureau), who would solve the problems of Gaza. In Aug 2006, on his first visit abroad as prime minister to Iran, Haniyeh said: "We will never recognize the usurper Zionist government and will continue our jihad-like movement until the liberation of Jerusalem". In a speech broadcast on Al-Aqsa TV on 23 March 2014 (the tenth anniversary of the assassination of Sheik Ahmad Yassin), Haniyeh stated (as translated by MEMRI): "Out of deprivation, we shall establish the balance of terror. Out of the ruins, we shall rock Tel Aviv. [With] our bare hands, we shall dig into the rock and do the impossible."

20. Predicting the future is impossible, but understanding the factors that bound the range of potential outcomes under Hamas rule is achievable. The outcomes for Gaza are scoped by how internal instability and choosing war with Israel will affect the city’s current trajectory.

21. I am sure Big_Zucchini can provide the needed corrections on this post (due to my lack of knowledge). In the past, Israel had a track record of willingness to take pain to gain peace; but the Palestinians have a perfect track record of rejecting every peace offer. Therefore, while I pray for peace:

(i) If what the Palestinians want is war, let them get what they desire. With my limited local knowledge, I don’t see a pathway to peace at this time; as the Palestinians feel they have nothing to lose; and the PIJ with Iranian support are keen to add fuel to this crisis. If Hamas does not strike at this time, they will lose street credibility to lead the resistance. Hamas needs to appear at least as extreme as PIJ.​

(ii) If the Iran factor can’t be managed by Biden at this time, cycles of hot war followed by periods of cold truce is inevitable. I suspect that hardliners in Iran wants the region in flames and is forcing the issue, and this push to war is not just in Gaza. The attack by the Houthi rebels from Yemen on 14 Sep 2019 using Iranian made missiles on Aramco in Saudi Arabia illustrated to the US and Israel the dangerous capabilities of Iranian precision missiles. According to updated estimates, Iran has 3,000 precision ballistic missiles with various ranges. These missiles pose a direct threat to US bases in the Gulf and to military bases and strategic facilities in Israel.​
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
In the past, Israel had a track record of willingness to take pain to gain peace; but the Palestinians have a perfect track record of rejecting every peace offer.
No one side holds a monopoly at being at fault or being a hindrance to a peace deal. Sure the Palestinians have rejected deals that they felt were loo sided. Israel has also rejected deals. Another issue is how does one negotiate over a future deal when land originally stated for a future Palestinian state is shrinking year by year due to the building of settlements?

In the early 2000’s Saudi Arabia led the Arabs in offering a peace deal which would have seen the Arabs establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel in return for full settlement of the Palestinian issue. It wasn’t the Palestinians who rejected the deal

I would be the last person to say that the Palestinians are totally blameless; their leadership has made many blunders. It was Palestinian disgust at the ineffectual and corrupt Fatah which lead to Hamas coming to power in Gaza. As Robert Fisk (he lived in and covered the region for decades) mentions in his book; even Israel at one point initially saw Hamas as a partner it could work with; as an alternative to Fatah.

Ultimately both sides have to make compromises/concessions; both sides can’t get everything they want. Israel can choose land or it can choose peace : it can’t have both. The Palestinians have to accept that some of their demands like the “right of return” and the return of all lands occupied in 1967 (which Israeli holds on to in total violation of international law) simply isn’t possible.

Sure Israel has legitimate security concerns; nobody’s disputing this. By the same token the Palestinians have a right to their own state and to live in peace. It’s not as if it’s only Israel which wants peace; with the Palestinians only wanting war ...

I’d be the last person to lay all the blame on Israel but I’d also never imply that the Palestinians were largely or only to blame.

I suspect that hardliners in Iran wants the region in flames and is forcing the issue, and this push to war is not just in Gaza.
I suspect that there are also “hardliners” or “hawks” (call them what you want) in a number of other countries who desire a war because it fits in with their aims. I also suspect that there are elements who don’t want to see the Palestinian/Israeli issue ever resolved. They’re hoping the issue will just ultimately fade away ...
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
In the early 2000’s Saudi Arabia led the Arabs in offering a peace deal which would have seen the Arabs establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel in return for full settlement of the Palestinian issue. It wasn’t the Palestinians who rejected the deal
1. You mean the Arab Peace Initiative crafted at the Beirut Arab League Summit in March 2002? Where Hamas on behalf of the Palestinians took decisive action, to try to ensure its rejection, by killing 30 and injuring 140 in a suicide attack.

2. Not to say that Israel is also without fault (or lacking in the same ability to make positive noises without commitment). What are the Arab Peace Initiative’s problems, from one perspective? Let me see, in Mar 2002, it:
(i) was crafted without input from the US or Israel;​
(ii) lacked key Arab stakeholders, some of whom at that time refused to attend (along with Yassar Arafat, who could not attend); and​
(iii) was timed with a suicide bombing executed by Hamas (at the Park Hotel in Netanya, Israel) on 27 Mar 2002, a day before the Arab Peace Initiative annoucement.​

3. Just after the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia laid out his vision of a peace plan, the conference broke down. The Palestinians stormed out of the Arab League summit; after their host refused to let Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat address the assembled dignitaries via satellite hookup, and hopes of forging a unified Arab proposal for Middle East peace slipped away with them. Mubarak first said he wasn't attending because of domestic obligations, then amended that to say he was sitting out the conference in solidarity with Arafat. King Abdullah said he was "exhausted" from a working trip abroad — which makes it accurate to say it lacked support from key Arab stakeholders in 2002.

4. Further, I don’t think this initiative, as a framework, will survive with Netanyahu, despite him having made some positive noises on it at one time or another. I am cynical of Netanyahu. More importantly, I am sick of his tricks (but let me stop here on my personal view).
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
Not to say that Israel is also without fault (or lacking in the same ability to make positive noises without commitment). What are the Arab Peace Initiative’s problems, from one perspective? Let me see, in Mar 2002, it:

(i) was crafted without input from the US or Israel;​

(ii) lacked key Arab stakeholders, some of whom at that time refused to attend (along with Yassar Arafat, who could not attend); and​

(iii) was timed with a suicide bombing executed by Hamas (at the Park Hotel in Netanya, Israel) on 27 Mar 2002, a day before the Arab Peace Initiative annoucement.​
The plan was presented as a basis for a future deal with input of course from Israel. It was rejected not because Israel was not given a chance to provide any input but because the plan included certain things which Israel rejected.

The plan as it was presented was led by Saudi with the full backing of Jordan and Egypt (3 of the main players in the Arab world) - plus it endorsed by the Arab League. Any objections Fatah had would eventually have been overcome with support and pressure from key Arab states. Both Egypt and Jordan were selected to be the main negotiators with Israel because they already had full diplomatic ties with It.

I suspect that together with the issue of Jerusalem; the other reason why the Israelis rejected the plan was because of the overall geo political strategic and political situation during that period. Israel simply saw nothing to be gained by going along with the plan. Also if I recall correctly; the plan was later never completely rejected by Sharon’s successors.
 
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