Middle East Crisis

OPSSG

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Post 2 of 2:

5. Palestinians have to take responsibility for the mess they created by refusing to accept peace since 1937. With this deal they can start building a just society in lands they already control. But time will tell if the Palestinians will want peace or be further radicalised by Iran’s proxies — as expected, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committees in Gaza both condemn the UAE normalization with Israel. On the other hand, if a UAE and Palestinian connection is made; it can serve to undermine Iran’s ability to use Hamas and Hezbollah terrorist proxies to frustrate the Palestinian leadership’s talks with Israel. Till now the Palestinian Authority has refused every single offer made to them by peace brokers.

6. The Palestinian Authority must either soften its intransigence, or be domestically superseded by fresh leadership that understand realpolitik. It cannot afford to pretend that it still lives in the Arafat days of revolution. Palestinians who are opposed to the UAE and Israeli normalisation have launched fire bombs suspended from balloons from the Palestinian territory. This prompted Israel to attack targets of Islamist group Hamas in Gaza and forced them to halt fuel supplies to the enclave in the latest retaliation against fire bombs from balloons that have been released from the Palestinian territory.

7. Unfortunately the Palestinian Authority —continues to steal millions of dollars in aid provided to the West Bank and fails to serve its people — will continue to condemn this peace deal instead of thanking their lucky stars that they now have a chance for peace. It may not be a peace on terms that the PLO desires but is still peaceful coexistence without further loss of lands.

8. Israeli fire services in the south of the country reported 60 fires caused by balloons on Tuesday, and 24 on Wednesday, without recording any casualties. Police sappers have also been dismantling bombs attached to balloons that landed in southern Israel since 6 Aug 2020. Hamas, elected by the Palestinians, is literally trying to set fire to the peace plan.
 
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ngatimozart

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The Palestinians have branded the UAE as traitors and its leader, Mohmmed bin Zayed, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhab as a traitor. After Friday noon prayers at Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, large photos of him we displayed with traitor written underneath. They are not happy. Both Hamas and Hezboĺlah will be stirring things along for their Tehrani paymasters.

 

OPSSG

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The Palestinians have branded the UAE as traitors and its leader, Mohmmed bin Zayed, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhab as a traitor.
I would not blame the Palestinian ground sentiment on Iran. I think Gaza citizens are really opposed to UAE’s move which Iran will milk to their advantage.

Thus far, 14 countries have support this peace for peace plan. In particular, Egypt, Oman and Bahrain, have given their support of the historic peace treaty between Israel and the UAE, which is expanding the circle of peace. Will need to see Saudi reactions to this.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
Most of the Arab's neighbors basically already begin to think in the path of accepting Israel after Camp David in my opinion. With Egypt come to term with Israel, basically no other Arab Force that can be hope to match Israel anymore.

However on the other spectrums, what most Arab's wants is amicable Palestinian solution. Most of Arab's especially in the Gulf Kingdoms, just want to move on from this Palestinian issue. However they need something that they can sell to their population.

Palestinian should take what Ehud Barak offering, something that Netanyahu so far has not willing to go that far. What Barak's offered practically to pull out most Israel settlement in deep area of West Bank and only maintain settlement on the outskirts of Jerusalem. Something that even surprised the US as the broker.

On the other hand, Israel should also let Palestinian to have territory that enable them to make working nation. Keeping the Jordan River side as security buffer, will make Palestinian state did not have international borders except with Israel. This will make Palestinian state depends on Israel all the time, and this will hurt Israel Economics in the end.

Both sides need to be realistic. Palestinian should swallow the bitter pill and accept the existence of Israel, And foregone their old demand to return to all of the old Palestinian territory. Israel on the other hand has to give Palestinian workable territory economically.
Unless Israel willing to absorb Palestinian as their citizens, something that many in Israel will not going to accept, considering there are already Israel Arab's citizen that are make close to 20% of population.
 

OPSSG

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Are we on the road in peace?

1. Since taking office, the Trump administration has pursued staunchly pro-Israel policies, including moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, ordering the PLO to shutter its Washington, DC, office and recognising Israel's occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights.

2. In a joint statement, the United States, Bahrain and Israel said the agreement was reached after Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa. Trump hailed the deal as "a historic breakthrough".

3. The Bahrain-Israel agreement comes a month after the UAE reached a deal on normalising relations with Israel, capping years of discreet contacts between the two countries in commerce and technology. Bahrain normalizing with Israel does not happen without Saudi permission. It just doesn't.

4. The Palestinian leadership, however, condemned the agreement as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and recalled the Palestinian ambassador to Bahrain for consultations. The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), based in Ramallah, the occupied West Bank, called the normalisation "another treacherous stab to the Palestinian cause". And in Gaza, Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem said Bahrain's decision to normalise relations with Israel "represents a grave harm to the Palestinian cause, and it supports the occupation".

5. UN Special Rapporteur Michael Lynk says the Gaza Strip is unable to handle a COVID-19 outbreak. Will the two peace agreements signed by Israel with UAE and Bahrain in the past month bring real peace or will it represent the start of a new phase of war by a desperate Hamas to distract from its poor management? Time will tell.

6. By signing up on Trump’s the peace plan, UAE is expected to gain access to F-35s. In return, Israel will ask the U.S. for arms to offset the sale of F-35s to the UAE.
 
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OPSSG

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The road to a mutually beneficial coexistence (but not to peace)
7. According to the NY Times, Netanyahu gave approval to Trump officials to sell F-35s to UAE. He then publicly denounced it, but Pompeo told him to quiet down. However, of particular concern to me is the fact that this deal includes MQ-9 Reaper UAVs and more significantly, EA-18G Growlers, which are dedicated to electronic warfare — to remotely disrupt the tracking systems of enemy SAM batteries, and then attack them with HARM missiles and take the SAM batteries out of use.

Q: Will selling F-35s to UAE significantly erode Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge?​

Ans: The cornerstone of America’s security commitment to Israel has been an assurance that the US would help Israel uphold its Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge. This is Israel’s ability to counter and defeat credible military threats from any individual state, coalition of states, or non-state actor, while sustaining minimal damages or casualties.​

This commitment was written into law in 2008 and each and every security assistance request from the Israeli Government is evaluated in light of US policy to uphold Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge.​

The most direct tool that the United States uses to ensure Israel’s qualitative military edge is security assistance. For some three decades, Israel has been the leading beneficiary of US security assistance through the Foreign Military Financing program (FMF). Israel receives US$3 billion per year in US funding for training and equipment under FMF — each year Israel accounts for 60% of American security assistance funding distributed through FMF.​

8. The Israeli request for a new weapons package that includes 12 V-22s, a squadron of F-35s (a total to 75), and 2 KC-46As, in addition to the existing FMF agreement signed in 2016, that increased US assistance from US$34 billion in the decade to US$38 billion between 2019 and 2028. As long as the level of American aid to Israel is preserved, I am of the view that the sale of some F-35s to the UAE by itself will not erode Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge.

9. The real issue is not the Qualitative Military Edge. The issue is the level of trust to be accorded to UAE, whose view of alliances is more transactional than commonly understood — for balance, it should be stated that UAE has fought alongside the US in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as being an active participant to defeat ISIS, and in operations against terrorists and their regional and global affiliates. The UAE is the only Arab nation and one of only three countries in the world to participate with the US in six coalition actions over the past 20 years. These actions include the wars in Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, Bosnia-Kosovo, the Gulf War and the current fight against ISIS. The UAE is a co-lead of the coalition’s Communications Working Group, providing strong support for counter-messaging and countering violent extremism through its Sawab and Hedayah centres and also a co-lead of the Coalition Stabilization Working Group. UAE hosted working groups in meetings October 2019.

10. The UAE is the second-largest buyer of American arms and is looking to further invest in the THAAD missile defense system. Most importantly to Trump, the UAE has US$28.1 billion in active government-to-government sales cases with the UAE under the FMS system.

11. The US and the UAE brought a 15 year Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) into force on 24 May 2019 that underscored their collaboration in defeating terrorist groups, such as ISIS and al-Qa’ida, securing regional stability, and combatting threats against their common interests including terrorist financing. The UAE currently hosts around 5,000 American military personnel who belong mostly to the USAF’s 380th Expeditionary Wing stationed at Al Dhafra Air Base.

12. The DCA will greatly expand the ease by which US forces and their families can live and work in the UAE in the future. The agreement will also facilitate and standardize travel procedures for American military forces. The DCA is meant to enhance US presence in the UAE to enable a closer partnership in the region. The DCA also addresses tax issues, like value-added tax, excise tax and road tolls, helping to provide a roadmap for which local tax and revenue laws apply to US forces and their families.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

Egypt, Jordan, UAE and now Bahrain. Off course both the Palestinian authority and Hamas will condemning hard. They have no choice, cause they need the Palestinian population 'fighthing' spirits still with them.

With more Arab nation willing to normalise their relationship with Israel, in fact I also see this put pressure to Israel administration and politicians to give Palestinian solutions. However they're also still strong reluctance from Israel sides to give viable teritorial concession for workable Palestinian state. For Israel security reason, in fact I do see the merit with the arguments for one state solution.

Giving the territory to separate Palestinian Independent state will create teritorial security concern that Israel face pre 1967.
However absorbing Palestinian population will create demographic problem for balance of Jewish-Arab Population. Right now outside Palestinian in the occupied territory, Israel already have Palestinian that make 20% of their population.

If they want to keep the momentum of Arab's reconciliation, Israel has to decide on Palestinian issue soon. Solving Palestinian issue also will switch Arab's especially the Gulf states attention toward Iran for good.
Having the Arab Gulf Kingdoms as allies against Iran will give Israel foot hold to infiltrate Iranians proxy even Iran it self.

I do tend to agree with the discussion on NY times as I put the link above. Like it or not, Israel under Netanyahu already push themselves toward One State solution.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member

Egypt, Jordan, UAE and now Bahrain. Off course both the Palestinian authority and Hamas will condemning hard. They have no choice, cause they need the Palestinian population 'fighthing' spirits still with them.

With more Arab nation willing to normalise their relationship with Israel, in fact I also see this put pressure to Israel administration and politicians to give Palestinian solutions. However they're also still strong reluctance from Israel sides to give viable teritorial concession for workable Palestinian state. For Israel security reason, in fact I do see the merit with the arguments for one state solution.

Giving the territory to separate Palestinian Independent state will create teritorial security concern that Israel face pre 1967.
However absorbing Palestinian population will create demographic problem for balance of Jewish-Arab Population. Right now outside Palestinian in the occupied territory, Israel already have Palestinian that make 20% of their population.

If they want to keep the momentum of Arab's reconciliation, Israel has to decide on Palestinian issue soon. Solving Palestinian issue also will switch Arab's especially the Gulf states attention toward Iran for good.
Having the Arab Gulf Kingdoms as allies against Iran will give Israel foot hold to infiltrate Iranians proxy even Iran it self.

I do tend to agree with the discussion on NY times as I put the link above. Like it or not, Israel under Netanyahu already push themselves toward One State solution.
Hi, I think your analysis of the urgency of peace with the Palestinians is wrong.
I believe the trend is the exact opposite, and here's why I think so:
The Palestinian trump card, although rarely talked about, is the Arab Peace Initiative, IMO. The Arab League conditioned it on Israeli-Palestinian peace to have an excuse for their respective populations that are hostile to Israel.
However, the change of wind in the Arab world now permits many of these league members to break the taboo and declare peace openly regardless.
This is a combination of dwindling support for Palestinians in the Arab street "why do we need to help them when we have problems at home?", a growing skepticism towards the old notion of Israel as an enemy "well they never attacked us and our main enemy is Iran anyway, which is also their enemy".
And on the level of leadership, the Arab Peace Initiative is sought after not only by Israel but the Arab states as well, so Arab leaders are understandably frustrated with Palestinian leadership, whom recently refused to attend an American-Arab summit that would give them over $50 billion in aid, including relief for the residents of Syrian Yarmouk, a huge refugee camp for Palestinians, suffering from a humanitarian crisis due to years of war and prior decades of utter neglect.
On the opposite end, Israel was always open to these countries, especially on the Iranian front, and contributes to them.
On top of the missed summit, there is an isolated row between Palestinian and Emirati leaderships over Palestinian rejection of substantial COVID aid from UAE, with PA reasoning that it should not have gone through Israel.


Overall I believe the Palestinian leadership feels like the walls are closing. They have not had elections in well over a decade. I believe last time was 2006 in Gaza, and it can be argued that both the PA and Hamas are awfully corrupt.
However, their recent announcement of elections, although worthy of skepticism on our part, is a sign, IMO, that they're afraid of a ramped up Arab response. They're taking that huge risk (PLO and Fatah based PA fears being overthrown by Hamas or other factions) to try and appease Arab leaders.
 

ngatimozart

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It appears that the UAE has been on the quiet becoming quite proficient in weapon making and marketing them without being unduly scrupulous. There has been some Israeli involvement and now that the UAE and Israel are now friends, undoubtedly there will be far more involvement between the too. If you look at the difference between the UAE and the Saudi Kingdom, the UAE talked the talk quietly, found out what worked and didn't work best for them, and went ahead and did it. The Saudis have talked the big talk and nothings really happened. An interesting comparison in attitudes.

 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I think there is at least one flawed idea in the article.

The author says the new alliance can allow Israel and UAE to cooperate on weapons the US banned. I assume he talks about weapons banned for the UAE, not Israel or both.
The flaw here is that Israel's and USA's part of the bargain is to make weapon acquisition easier for the UAE, and to give them access to some of the most advanced weaponry like the F-35.
 

Beholder

Member
Agree, it's also very easy for US to block any israeli sale through political avenues(it's very normal, bcs we are allies after all).
But cooperation with UAE has it's merits, they can market in some places, better then we can. IMO
 

swerve

Super Moderator
It appears that the UAE has been on the quiet becoming quite proficient in weapon making and marketing them without being unduly scrupulous. There has been some Israeli involvement and now that the UAE and Israel are now friends, undoubtedly there will be far more involvement between the too. If you look at the difference between the UAE and the Saudi Kingdom, the UAE talked the talk quietly, found out what worked and didn't work best for them, and went ahead and did it. The Saudis have talked the big talk and nothings really happened. An interesting comparison in attitudes.

The Saudis talk about building Eurofighters - & never get the assembly factory built. The UAE makes non-flashy niche products, & succeeds in winning export orders for them. So do the Jordanians, but with fewer resources have to settle for a lower tier & smaller scale.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Some senate-members will try to block the sale of F-35s , MQ-9B Reapers and hundreds of missiles, because Israel doesn't want that an islamic country will get such hightech stuff, but also because the UAE have quite a good relationship with Russia and China.
But there is a big chance that a disappointed UAE will spend its $23 billion somewhere else....

 

ngatimozart

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Some senate-members will try to block the sale of F-35s , MQ-9B Reapers and hundreds of missiles, because Israel doesn't want that an islamic country will get such hightech stuff, but also because the UAE have quite a good relationship with Russia and China.
But there is a big chance that a disappointed UAE will spend its $23 billion somewhere else....

Yep, even if they can stall it until after the inauguration. It's a big mistake wrt the F-35 and MQ-9B and I am unconcerned about the Israeli security issues because they are old enough and ugly enough to look after themselves.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Some senate-members will try to block the sale of F-35s , MQ-9B Reapers and hundreds of missiles, because Israel doesn't want that an islamic country will get such hightech stuff, but also because the UAE have quite a good relationship with Russia and China.
But there is a big chance that a disappointed UAE will spend its $23 billion somewhere else....
Israel is not a factor here. Objections were raised but then withdrawn a long time ago. It is possible that some politicians used it to avoid the political backlash of greenlighting a weapons sale to Arab states, but behind the scenes I think everyone knew for a long time it's what the Emiris wanted.


Yep, even if they can stall it until after the inauguration. It's a big mistake wrt the F-35 and MQ-9B and I am unconcerned about the Israeli security issues because they are old enough and ugly enough to look after themselves.
I already know what's your sentiment towards Israelis, but now that we're on the right thread, I think you should elaborate more on the points you've raised earlier in the Iran-related thread.
After all, it's very much relevant to the wide ME peace process and aversion of future conflicts.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Some developments in the Palestinian territories in the last few days, that have gone under the radar, although they have serious weight.
Before I begin, some disclosure.
Israel has many media channels, and news sites in abundance. However, only 1 manages to score high in reliability and professionalism. TimesOfIsrael, or ToI, is the only one I'm aware of that truly removes any sign of political bias. It's less known in Israel itself, but highly regarded internationally. Therefore, I will strive to only link it when possible.


1) An Israeli medical delegation is visiting Gaza


Why is it important? As the PA has gone more rogue and isolated from allies and enemies alike, rejecting all forms of negotiations including with Israel, Israeli policy-makers appeared to have preferred to negotiate with Hamas instead, even though historically it was Israeli security that shielded the PA from a Gaza-like revolution.
And indeed, this delegation is far more symbolic than practical, which is surprising since Israel's not even using public data for PR. It barely even does any PR at all, on the conflict with Palestinian factions.
A year ago, this would not be possible.

My take on it - Israel's secretly improving ties with (both) Hamas (and the PA, I'll get to that later).
It's possible that in some future peace talks, Hamas will be part of it, and some resolution could be found without a bloody conflict.
On the other hand, Hamas are not merely trying to govern the Palestinians. They are terrorists, and have broken treaties in the past as if they were nothing. They continue to bomb Israeli cities on the daily even right now.
I do not know whether I support such a move or not.

2) PA "dumps" Hamas and seeks to restore ties with Gulf states (JPost)


This article has hints of an author's bias in the form of opinionated writing. However, I accept the message. After feeling isolated from its Arab allies, both due to peace treaties with Israel and the scolding by allies for misusing and/or rejecting aid, it seems natural that the PA would want to make amends. It can't afford not to.

3) Israel transfers previously rejected tax revenue to PA


It's less of an Israeli decision and more of a Palestinian one. Israel collects taxes from Palestinians and transfers those to the PA, under the Oslo Accords. Under a 2018 law, Israel also deducts the terror stipends, which amounts to hundreds of millions a year.
The PA rejected the money following that law, saying it was embarrassing.

Their agreement to accept the money now can be explained in multiple ways.
It could be their reconciliation with the gulf states, or it could be a warming of ties with Israel. Can't tell for sure.
What I do know for sure is that the transfer of the terror stipends to the PA would be very controversial, hence why the government kept it intentionally below radar.

4) Israeli and Jordanian FMs met for first time in years


I may be mistaken but this could be in response to the more reconciliatory tone of the PA.
Abbas is widely seen, particularly by his Arab allies, as more of a burden than an asset for Palestine, and a bad partner for peace. Hence, for example, the PA's recent crackdown on political opponents to secure the next "elections" (last were in 2006).
But a series of events has put unprecedented pressure on him, so it's possible that he will agree to negotiate before the end of Biden's term.

A Palestinian agreement to peace with Israel will give the GCC the ability to make a wider peace agreement with Israel whilst saving face, and will allow to seriously ramp up cooperation against Iran and its proxies.
 

ngatimozart

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Staff member
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I already know what's your sentiment towards Israelis, but now that we're on the right thread, I think you should elaborate more on the points you've raised earlier in the Iran-related thread.

After all, it's very much relevant to the wide ME peace process and aversion of future conflicts.
Years ago I had a lot of admiration for Israel, especially the IDF, because of what they had to endure and how they defended and won against superior numbers. However as time progressed and a series of Israeli governments started alienation of Palestinian land in what can only be called a land grab my admiration changed to disgust especially after the harsh measures inflected upon the Palestinian population by Israel. There are many arguments made for such measures, but none of them stack up legally or morally. Further to me it also stinks because of what the Jewish people had suffered during the last 2,000 in the great diaspora after the Romans destroyed the Temple and razed Jerusalem in 66 CE. One would think that after all that suffering, especially after the eastern European pogroms of the 19th Century and the Holocaust of the 20th Century, its fight for independence and recognition, that Israel would be compassionate state. Alas this has turned out not to be so and that is much to its detriment. That's where I am coming from.

My comment that Israel is old enough and ugly enough to look after itself is a compliment because you are. I think that people tend to forget that you have nuclear capability and if you were in extremis that you would use it. I am very sure that the mullahs in Tehran know that very well and they are equally aware that they cannot adequately defend against it. I am sure that they do not want to end up glowing in the dark. However that gives them impetus to persue a nuclear weapons program in order to have a similar capability. They also have a problem with their other arch enemy, Saudi Arabia.

A few years back there were rumours that the Saudis funded the Pakistani nuclear weapons program. There is some logic to that because Pakistan isn't exactly flush with money. The rumours went that one of the conditions was that Saudis had access to a certain number of warheads if and when they required them. These warheads are kept in Pakistan until required. This arrangement gives the Saudis plausible deniability. Like I said rumours and they were discussed on here a few years back. So from the Iranian POV they have 2 enemies within the region with nuclear weapons, and that excludes the Great Satan. Of course the mullahs are friendly with the Lesser Satan at the moment because it suits their purposes.

I would expect Israel and Saudi Arabia to become friends, but I strongly suspect that it will be a friends with benefits relationship because of Saudis Wahabi beliefs and its extreme Islamic views. It's a case of an enemy of my enemy is my friend. That's how I see the Saudis as viewing the relationship. They will sup with the devil it will help them achieve their goals. Don't forget they are more conservative than the mullahs in Tehran.

Israel is a cornerstone to Middle East peace, but so are Saudi Arabia and the other Arab nations. However the festering sore that is the Palestinian land and people must also be dealt with and here Israel must be prepared to compromise and swallow a dead rat or two. I agree that Hamas has to be neutralised, but also so do the conditions that allow it and other toxic poisons to thrive within the Palestinian homeland. This has to be a 2 part process with the physical destruction of Hamas and a full on genuine hearts and mind program at the same time. That's one dead rat. Get the Jordanians and UAE or Egyptians in on the ground to help. Use Saudi money especially for clearing out any Iranian influence. Set up an independent Palestinian state and help it become economically and politically stable so that Iran cannot destabilise it. Again use the Arab nations to help out.

If that works there then it could be used as a template for removing Hamas and other Iranian and Syrian influences from Lebanon giving that country a chance of stability and recovery. You would be able to secure your northern border with a stable state that's not hostile to you and is a buffer between you and increasingly troublesome Turkey. You would still have to deal with Syria and Iran, but it cuts your enemies down to a manageable number.

The beauty about this is that it's the local nations that are doing this,not something imposed by outsiders who don't have a clue about the local conditions, relationships, cultures, etc.

That's my take on things.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Thanks for the reply. I think you misunderstood me. I hoped you'd give me more specific examples and not the more philosophical approach.
Over the years as I've talked to people on these issues, I found several common denominators.
Some were simply antisemitic or bigoted. Some were merely ignorant to the nuances. Some had a rather extreme political view.
But the vast majority had no alternative to offer, to Israel's policies, and whatever they offered was already tried.

If you want to touch on historical events, be my guest, I will reply to each and every one with relevant nuance if I know it. You should know that even people like me, in the opposition bloc, have more agreement with the foreign policies of our government than disagreement.

But for now I will touch only on the current issues. For the following examples, I want you to give me an alternative to the current policy.

1)The unilateral withdrawal of 2005 gave rise to an even more extremist faction, Hamas, who overthrew the government and now rules its people with an iron fist. Since then, thousands of rockets have fallen on nearby cities, and sirens are activated almost on the daily.
Current policy - limited fire upon un-manned military targets such as observation posts, training camps, and warehouses. Times of quiet are rewarded with easing restrictions. Attacks are met with reinstated restrictions.

2)The people of Gaza are constantly on the verge of a humanitarian disaster.
Current policy - provide aid in the form of raw materials, food, and necessities like water and electricity.

Secondary issue - Hamas takes credit and because Israeli soldiers are nowhere to be seen, it does not help winning hearts and minds.
Current policy - None.

3)In 2014 Hamas was brought just exactly to the brink of collapse. Unprecedented amounts of aid including medical were supplied, this time via Israeli soldiers. The hearts and minds campaign did not succeed and Hamas remained in power with no popular resistance to it.
Current policy - any future war with Hamas would again be conducted with avoidance of eliminating it outright in fear of a more extreme alternative.

4)Peace is key, particularly with the PA. The general consensus is that there should always be negotiations. However, for about a decade, the PA's policy is that there should be pre-conditions for negotiations. For example, in 2014's Kerry talks the PA demanded the release of hundreds of convicted terrorists, some with life sentences, for a 6 month extension.
Current policy - agree to talk only if pre-conditions are dropped.

5)Peace with the PA had been attempted by every Israeli PM and American president, and failed. Prior to Trump, all proposed maps looked similar - 1949 borders, they were all rejected. Trump's unique map offered an alternative but was also rejected.
Current policy - accept every American president's proposal, even before unveiling it, and trusting the US to help fix issues via diplomacy.

6)The Palestinian territories are mountainous, whereas central Israel is a low flat land. If a peace treaty fails and either Hamas or some other extremist group takes over, it would be a Gaza 2.0, but this time instead of cities like Sderot and Ashdod, it will be Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Haifa, the entire state will be paralyzed.
Current policy - programs to improve Palestinian quality of life to prevent Hamas's rise.

Secondary issue - Hamas is still more popular in the West Bank than the PA.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
The problem is that there will be never peace in the Middle-East. Both sides are saying "Those guys do not belong here, this land is ours!"
So for both sides sharing land is not an option.

The Arabian/Islamic side has a numerical adventage, but the islamic world is weak, because they are devided.
Besides that the jews have an amazing lobbying power and have the full support of the US.

Another thing is that countries from outside the M-E start wars and heat up the situation in the name of freedom and democracy. After all if there is peace, countries like Egypt, Saudi-Arabia and UAE will never spend their billions on defence equipment.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
The problem is that there will be never peace in the Middle-East. Both sides are saying "Those guys do not belong here, this land is ours!"
So for both sides sharing land is not an option.

The Arabian/Islamic side has a numerical adventage, but the islamic world is weak, because they are devided.
Besides that the jews have an amazing lobbying power and have the full support of the US.

Another thing is that countries from outside the M-E start wars and heat up the situation in the name of freedom and democracy. After all if there is peace, countries like Egypt, Saudi-Arabia and UAE will never spend their billions on defence equipment.
There will be peace. At one point the Arab-Israeli conflict was the biggest in the ME. Now it's almost gone and most have made peace with Israel.
If and when Iran is either dealt with or it agrees to a peaceful resolution, whatever conflicts will remain in the ME region will be a cleanup work.
 
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