Middle East Crisis

MaenZ

New Member
It's funny to call this a crisis because we have always been at war.

Anyway, Does you have any strategic insight to share about the growing ISIL threat in the region?

I'm particularly interested with Jordanian defense capability against the group. As voices inside Jordan claim that ISIL cannot possibly break into Jordanian defenses. However outside neutral sources claim that Jordan cannot handle ISIL on it's own.

Jordan is claimed to be the best trained Arab fighting force on the Asian side, how would they fair against ISIL? Can a rag tag group without air force beat a disciplined and prepared regular army?
 

BDRebel

New Member
Speaking out of experience from the Syrian revolution, a regular army, when confronted with guerrilla warfare, can never win. Especially when the guerrillas are embraced by the populace, which I doubt ISIL will find if they enter Jordan. Anyway, no matter how trained your army is, casualties will be sustained. Check US forces against Taliban, or UK forces against IRA.

As for stopping ISIL from entering Jordan in the first place, my opinion is with minimal need for security forces and military within Jordan, border permeability should be primary method of defense. Stop any sort of weapons influx from Iraqi border and any sleeper cells already inside will find it difficult to operate effectively. That is unless ISIL finds support from within Jordan.

Just my two cents here, but I'm no real analyst.

Not to start an argument, but Syrian army before the revolution was more prepared and better equipped than Jordanian force today, and that is unfortunate for us Syrians since all weapons were used against people, not some external enemy. Point is, Syria was still penetrated, and the army is arguably now reduced to the same level as the FSA even though the rebels still don't have air support or a steady supply of heavy weaponry, especially anti-air capabilities. On the other hand, the rebels were as I previously mentioned, embraced by the locals, since they were Syrians, not extreme foreigners.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Jordan is claimed to be the best trained Arab fighting force on the Asian side, how would they fair against ISIL?
Kenneth's Pollack's 'Arabs At War' has an excellent chapter on the Jordanian military and its performance in 1948, 1967 and 1970. He argues that the army actually performed better in 1948 than in 1967; largely because of the dismissal of Glub Pasha and other British officers on loan. He also writes about the army's performance against the Syrians in 1970; saying that it was slightly better than the Syrians but that it's overall performance wasn't very impressive.

This video has footage of special forces training facility in Jordan.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QL_3Qg-SADY"]The Business of War: SOFEX - YouTube[/nomedia]
 

surpreme

Member
It's funny to call this a crisis because we have always been at war.

Anyway, Does you have any strategic insight to share about the growing ISIL threat in the region?

I'm particularly interested with Jordanian defense capability against the group. As voices inside Jordan claim that ISIL cannot possibly break into Jordanian defenses. However outside neutral sources claim that Jordan cannot handle ISIL on it's own.

Jordan is claimed to be the best trained Arab fighting force on the Asian side, how would they fair against ISIL? Can a rag tag group without air force beat a disciplined and prepared regular army?
First off it not a war yet so its good to call it a crisis now. I'm tell you like this if more trained ex-military join the ISIS ranks it will spread. The ISIS still need more trained units especially techs and equipment operators. There is a lot of weapons on the black market after Libya and Syria went up in smoke. Jordan has benefit from U.S. assistance especially its special forces but overall it needs more work on the rest of the armed forces. You must look at its defense spending there hasn't been a heavy increase in spending. The Jordan Armed Forces hasn't created a counter/terrorism insurgent capability yet, this is what will hurt Jordan forces if ISIS go into Jordan. The ISIS is calling for the whole area to be under Islamic State. Let's pray that other sunni insurgents don't join there ranks especially ex Iraq, Syrian military.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
The Jordan Armed Forces hasn't created a counter/terrorism insurgent capability yet,
Not true at all ..... Where did you get that idea? The Jordanian army has had a counter-terrorism capability [the units are now organised into the Special Operations Command] for several decades and takes counter terrorism training extremely seriously. King Abdullah was previously the head of the army's special forces unit. You'll also no doubt be aware that the Jodanian army fought a vicious campaign against Palestinian fedayeen in 1970 in what became known as 'Black September'.

If you watch the video I posted in a previous link, you'll see that they have gone to greats efforts to create a realistic training facility.

Jordanian Facility to Train Regional and International Forces

This is a video showing a Jordanian special forcses anti-terrorism demonstration.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqqKBOKMJGs"]SOFEX 2014 Special Forces Demonstration in Amman Jordan Army Recognition - YouTube[/nomedia]
 

BDRebel

New Member
Let's pray that other sunni insurgents don't join there ranks especially ex Iraq, Syrian military.
Iraqi rebels and tribes are already fighting alongside ISIS against government. More detail on this on the Iraqi crisis thread. Syrian rebels however have for a while now been in a state of war against ISIS. Even other Islamist rebels (more moderate than ISIS) are in full fledged war against ISIS, especially after the latter assassinated/arrested Syrian rebel commanders.
 

surpreme

Member
Not true at all ..... Where did you get that idea? The Jordanian army has had a counter-terrorism capability [the units are now organised into the Special Operations Command] for several decades and takes counter terrorism training extremely seriously. King Abdullah was previously the head of the army's special forces unit. You'll also no doubt be aware that the Jodanian army fought a vicious campaign against Palestinian fedayeen in 1970 in what became known as 'Black September'.

If you watch the video I posted in a previous link, you'll see that they have gone to greats efforts to create a realistic training facility.

Jordanian Facility to Train Regional and International Forces

This is a video showing a Jordanian special forcses anti-terrorism demonstration.

SOFEX 2014 Special Forces Demonstration in Amman Jordan Army Recognition - YouTube
I knew they had U.S. Special Forces personnel in Jordan, after seeing that video they look nice. Yes I knew about Black September in 1970. Really surprise about Jordan Special Forces didn't know it had that much capability. It still go back to defense spending to really get the Jordan Armed Forces up to speed.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
It still go back to defense spending to really get the Jordan Armed Forces up to speed.
The main priority of Jordan for many years now has been internal security, not external. And that's precisely why they have devoted some much funding and focus towards their special forces units.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It appears that the UAE has been on the quiet becoming quite proficient in weapon making and marketing them without being unduly scrupulous. There has been some Israeli involvement and now that the UAE and Israel are now friends, undoubtedly there will be far more involvement between the too. If you look at the difference between the UAE and the Saudi Kingdom, the UAE talked the talk quietly, found out what worked and didn't work best for them, and went ahead and did it. The Saudis have talked the big talk and nothings really happened. An interesting comparison in attitudes.

 

Big_Zucchini

Active Member
I think there is at least one flawed idea in the article.

The author says the new alliance can allow Israel and UAE to cooperate on weapons the US banned. I assume he talks about weapons banned for the UAE, not Israel or both.
The flaw here is that Israel's and USA's part of the bargain is to make weapon acquisition easier for the UAE, and to give them access to some of the most advanced weaponry like the F-35.
 

Beholder

Member
Agree, it's also very easy for US to block any israeli sale through political avenues(it's very normal, bcs we are allies after all).
But cooperation with UAE has it's merits, they can market in some places, better then we can. IMO
 

swerve

Super Moderator
It appears that the UAE has been on the quiet becoming quite proficient in weapon making and marketing them without being unduly scrupulous. There has been some Israeli involvement and now that the UAE and Israel are now friends, undoubtedly there will be far more involvement between the too. If you look at the difference between the UAE and the Saudi Kingdom, the UAE talked the talk quietly, found out what worked and didn't work best for them, and went ahead and did it. The Saudis have talked the big talk and nothings really happened. An interesting comparison in attitudes.

The Saudis talk about building Eurofighters - & never get the assembly factory built. The UAE makes non-flashy niche products, & succeeds in winning export orders for them. So do the Jordanians, but with fewer resources have to settle for a lower tier & smaller scale.
 
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