Korean Peninsula Developments

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

Just see this on Bemil Chosun sites. Talk on recent meeting between both ROK and US President. This talk on US agree for ROK developing more than 800km balistic missiles and 1000km cruise missiles.

This in my opinion can be a game changer if ROK pursue on Regional Balistic Missile (IRBM) range class, cause it will bring China into the equation. Not there's indication ROK will do it yet, but it's certainly within ROK capabilities.

Japan clearly already have capabilities even to build ICBM if they choose too. We can see that on Japan satellite launch capabilities. ROK also already on the satellite launch capabilities (off course not in the range of Japan yet), but still capabilities for IRBM is there.

Will US let both it's major allies in East Asia free hand now to build and install those capabilities ?
In my opinion, it is a logical step. It would be weird if China and North-Korea can have everything they want, but only allow South-Korea and Japan to have some short range missiles.

It wouldn't be only unfair — Japan and South-Korea will also regard the US as an unreliable ally. They may even have their doubts about on which side the US are.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
They may even have their doubts about on which side the US are.
Perhaps it is simply US told both Japan and ROK to take more slack on regional defense. Practically it is same massage that Trump made, just Bidden take more diplomatic and persuasive approach.


Just add Jane's article that confirm article from Bemil Chosun.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
...— with the Korean language invented by the 4th king of the Joseon dynasty....
The script, not the language.

Korean was written in Chinese characters, I think some of them simplified & repurposed because Chinese characters are a very poor medium for writing Korean, because the languages have very different structures & grammar, & that caused problems. The king wanted to encourage literacy, so had scholars devise a simpler phonetic script.

The Japanese got round the same problem by making a phonetic script (or rather, two) from a small number of greatly simplified Chinese characters, about 1200 years ago.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
An ROKAF accident and it’s potential impact on continued deterrence in intra-Korea relations

1. On 8 Jun 2021, a Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) pilot was forced to eject from his KF-16 fighter during his takeoff run. As a precaution all South Korean KF-16s (with a 180 procured under Peace Bridge I, II and III) are now grounded.

2. South Korea with a 3+ million strong army faces a complex threat matrix — where if war breaks out, there will be tens of thousands dead troops per day. ROKAF had said on 22 Dec 2030 that it had scrambled fighters in response to an intrusion into South Korea's air defence identification zone by 19 Russian and Chinese military aircraft. To date, ROKAF has:
(a) lost or damaged 15 of these KF-16 fighters and one F-15K, to prior accidents. ROKAF operates 60 F-15Ks, who will have to do double duty for the duration of the safety pause; and​
(b) placed orders of 40 F-35As and in the near future will consider acquiring another 20 more F-35Bs, to augment its combat power.​

3. I hope normal fight operations for the KF-16 will resume soon, as this is a significant loss of combat power viz a viz North Korea, China and Russia, during the safety pause. KF-16s are the backbone of the sortie generation capability for ROKAF; an air force with tertiary capabilities and an operational F-35A squadron since Dec 2019. Keeping in mind that in:
(a) Jun 2021, the U.N. nuclear watchdog sees indications of plutonium work in North Korea; and​
(b) May 2021, the North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman said the recent US criticism of North Korea's human rights situation is a provocation that shows the US is girding itself for an all-out showdown with North Korea and will be answered accordingly. The North Korean statements in May 2021 came at a time when the US was wrapping up its policy on the North​

4. Following the election of President Moon Jae-in in 2017, South Korea began reconciling with North Korea with revival of the Sunshine Policy. Unfortunately, this seems to be a one-way love affair.

5. Following the failure of the Kim-Trump summits and two ballistic missile launches in Mar 2020, Ms Kim Yo Jong, a senior official in the North Korean government (and sister of leader Kim Jong Un), has:
(a) demolished its joint liaison office with South Korea in the city of Kaesong on 16 June 2020 (the Kaesong joint liaison office, was opened in 2018 but had been effectively abandoned after relations became strained between the two countries); and​
(b) condemned the Apr 2021 use of balloons to drop anti-Pyongyang leaflets by a vocal group of North Korean defectors. Ms Kim Yo Jong said the North would look into corresponding action.​

6. More worrisome is the likelihood of a near-term violent intra-Korean clash if indeed Kim Yo Jong is completing an initiation ritual similar to the one Kim Jong Un completed a decade ago, with the Nov 2010 bombardment of the island of Yeonpyeong (near the Northern limit line).
(a) On 21 May 2021, US President Joe Biden met with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and announced that missile development guidelines has been ended. He also mentioned that this is a symbolic and substantive measure. The termination of the US-imposed Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) guidelines will now allow South Korea to develop new generation of cruise and ballistic missiles with ranges beyond 800 km, and maximum payload of 500 kg. The MTCR Guidelines are the common export control policy adhered to by member countries.​

(b) The Mar 2020 North Korean missile tests were with short-range ballistic missiles (less than 500 km in range). Two missiles launched on 2 Mar 2020 were similar to previous flight tests of North Korea’s KN-25 missile, according to Michael Elleman, a missile expert at IISS. Prior to this on 4 July 2017, North Korea flight-tested its Hwasong-14 ICBM. Since Feb 2017, North Korea has introduced and successfully flight-tested an entirely new suite of ballistic missiles.​
(c) The 2020 moves by Kim Yo Jong to reintroduce a North Korean military presence in and around the Kaesong Industrial Complex, Mount Geumgang tourist area, and DMZ is reminiscent of the military initiation rituals and provocations attributed to Kim Jong Un in 2010 to provide him with credibility as a military commander.​
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
1. South Korea’s military has temporarily grounded its KAI KUH-1 Surion helicopters after five Republic of Korea Army (ROKA) personnel were injured when their KUH-1M helicopter – configured for medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) operations – crash-landed at a military base near Pocheon, Gyeonggi Province, on 12 July 2021. "We have suspended the operations of the same type of the aircraft as of 11:10 a.m. Medical evacuation missions will be carried out by UH-60," the ROKA said in a statement, adding they will look into the exact cause of the accident.

2. The ROKA and the Republic of Korea Marine Corp (ROKMC) as major operators of the type will again be affected as fight operations will be suspended pending an investigation. This crash will also delay KAI’s developmental work on 24 marine attack helicopters designed for amphibious assault and close-air support, to be delivered as early as 2031. KAI displayed a concept for a marine attack helicopter variant in 2019. Powered by a twin turboshaft engine with 1,800-plus horsepower, the marine attack version is to be armed with Lockheed Martin’s AGM-114 Hellfire air-to-surface missile; the Mistral ATAM air-to-air missile developed by MBDA; 2.75-inch nonguided and guided rockets; and the 20mm turret gun, according to KAI.
The helicopter is envisaged to be fitted with the nose-mounted electro-optical/infrared targeting and designation system primarily developed by Hanwha Systems for the South Korean Army’s future light attack helicopter.

3. This is the second crash of the Surion; on 17 July 2018, a ROKMC MUH-1 Marineon crashed when its main rotor detached killing 5 and seriously injuring 1. Defects in the rotor mast made by Airbus Helicopters were blamed for the accident. As a result, the French government agreed to guarantee the quality of 13 major parts produced by Airbus for the Surion. The MUH-1 Marineon has a 96% part commonality with the Surion. Modifications include an integrated flotation system, an auxiliary fuel tank, and specialised radio equipment.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
A pending discussion on Kim’s grip on power. It should probably start off with the size of his waist line, likely the biggest threat he faces.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
A pending discussion on Kim’s grip on power. It should probably start off with the size of his waist line, likely the biggest threat he faces.

Ah Kim's waist line isn't such a big problem anymore. He's lost weight but over a short period of time apparently. I don't tend to follow American commentators views on the inner workings of the DPRK because they know relatively little and they project their own cultural context onto the situation which leads to wrong assumptions. Rubbish in = rubbish out.

I prefer the NK defectors and SK reading on things. The NK defectors because they give a description of the life and society within North Korea. Also because some still have access to contacts within the country. SK because they have the most intel and feel for what's occurring north of the 38th Parallel.

The problem is when Kim Jong Un falls off his perch. There's no clear successor and the presumption in the west is that it will be his sister. However she had an artist who she particularly favoured and Kim Jong Un ordered the artist executed, and she had to do it herself in front of her brother. No warning, no nothing. Just do it there and now. So she may not be quite as favoured at the moment. That info was posted by Yeonmi Park on her YouTube channel, Voice of North Korea. She's a NK defector who managed to escape and is now studying in the US.

The real problem will be the military and the political elite who are around when KJU dies. If there is no clear successor then the fighting for control will start. The other problem that they have is how to explain it to the people. The people have been brainwashed into believing that the Kims are the ultimate beings, Gods if you like, and that they are the heart, body and soul of the nation. Without the Kim leadership the nation will be nothing and overrun by capitalist running dogs. The military definitely will want to be in charge because of the doctrine of juche they receive the lions share of the nations resources.

Then there is the PRC problem because they definitely will not want a united Korea on their border being governed out of Seoul. That is anathema to them and they will move heaven and earth to prevent that.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Ah Kim's waist line isn't such a big problem anymore. He's lost weight but over a short period of time apparently. I don't tend to follow American commentators views on the inner workings of the DPRK because they know relatively little and they project their own cultural context onto the situation which leads to wrong assumptions. Rubbish in = rubbish out.

I prefer the NK defectors and SK reading on things. The NK defectors because they give a description of the life and society within North Korea. Also because some still have access to contacts within the country. SK because they have the most intel and feel for what's occurring north of the 38th Parallel.

The problem is when Kim Jong Un falls off his perch. There's no clear successor and the presumption in the west is that it will be his sister. However she had an artist who she particularly favoured and Kim Jong Un ordered the artist executed, and she had to do it herself in front of her brother. No warning, no nothing. Just do it there and now. So she may not be quite as favoured at the moment. That info was posted by Yeonmi Park on her YouTube channel, Voice of North Korea. She's a NK defector who managed to escape and is now studying in the US.

The real problem will be the military and the political elite who are around when KJU dies. If there is no clear successor then the fighting for control will start. The other problem that they have is how to explain it to the people. The people have been brainwashed into believing that the Kims are the ultimate beings, Gods if you like, and that they are the heart, body and soul of the nation. Without the Kim leadership the nation will be nothing and overrun by capitalist running dogs. The military definitely will want to be in charge because of the doctrine of juche they receive the lions share of the nations resources.

Then there is the PRC problem because they definitely will not want a united Korea on their border being governed out of Seoul. That is anathema to them and they will move heaven and earth to prevent that.

Didn’t know about the sister’s friend episode and yes, explaining the non Kim successor could be a problem although PCR assistance should smooth the transition.

As for PRC opposition to Korean unification, pros and cons from their prospective. Germany struggled during their process but East Germany was in vastly better shape than NK is today. SK is an Asian superstar but taking on 20 million new citizens, many likely damaged from years of starvation won’t be easy. Non military infrastructure is in terrible shape and finding meaningful employment for millions, very difficult. I couldn’t guess on a time frame. Don’t think China needs to be overly concerned except on to dispose of the nuclear program. Xi may disagree however.
 

Blackshoe

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Ah Kim's waist line isn't such a big problem anymore. He's lost weight but over a short period of time apparently. I don't tend to follow American commentators views on the inner workings of the DPRK because they know relatively little and they project their own cultural context onto the situation which leads to wrong assumptions. Rubbish in = rubbish out.

I prefer the NK defectors and SK reading on things. The NK defectors because they give a description of the life and society within North Korea. Also because some still have access to contacts within the country. SK because they have the most intel and feel for what's occurring north of the 38th Parallel.

The problem is when Kim Jong Un falls off his perch. There's no clear successor and the presumption in the west is that it will be his sister. However she had an artist who she particularly favoured and Kim Jong Un ordered the artist executed, and she had to do it herself in front of her brother. No warning, no nothing. Just do it there and now. So she may not be quite as favoured at the moment. That info was posted by Yeonmi Park on her YouTube channel, Voice of North Korea. She's a NK defector who managed to escape and is now studying in the US.

The real problem will be the military and the political elite who are around when KJU dies. If there is no clear successor then the fighting for control will start. The other problem that they have is how to explain it to the people. The people have been brainwashed into believing that the Kims are the ultimate beings, Gods if you like, and that they are the heart, body and soul of the nation. Without the Kim leadership the nation will be nothing and overrun by capitalist running dogs. The military definitely will want to be in charge because of the doctrine of juche they receive the lions share of the nations resources.

Then there is the PRC problem because they definitely will not want a united Korea on their border being governed out of Seoul. That is anathema to them and they will move heaven and earth to prevent that.
I definitely agree with you WRT US commenters on DPRK leadership. It's not even Kremlinology (given the lack of basic information we would need to have to reach that field of study), it's mostly just semi-educated guesswork. I also have my doubts about both NK defectors (because very few of them-I would list the exceptions as Hwang Jang-Yeop and Thae Yong-Ho and the quasi-defector of Fujimoto-were really tied into the leadership level per se). I also have doubts that the NIS has any real great sources there either (CWD probably does, but I might sarcastically wonder whether they were the CWD's sources or the CWD people their's). I think we all operate under a real deficit of knowledge about the DPRK's elite and what they think.

And having said that, I will now stride forth and arrogantly proclaim my own (admittedly poorly-founded) beliefs.

1. I think fears about what happens if KJU dies are over-stated; my belief is that the core class of songbun will rally around whichever direct-line offspring of Kim Jong-Il is est-suited for power. That person right now is almost certainly Kim Yo-Jong, his sister. I sometimes see references to this causing problems due to Confucian ideals, but if the Norks (h/t any Aussies in the thread) really cared about that, KJU wouldn't be in power either (Kim Jong-Chol would be). I assume the cores understand that they must all hang together, or they will surely all hang separately (this is based off Lankov's discussions with them). I don't think the wavering/hostile classes matter much in the discussion one way or another.

Interestingly, KJU apparently doesn't trust the military and has taken lots of efforts to reduce their role in the defense apparatus, with irregular forces of the KWP (like the old RGB) and the strategic arsenal replacing them.

Overall, my mental framework for "breakdown in the DPRK" is less "the KPA and the core songbun are fighting it out in Pyongyang" and more "all of a sudden, there are riots and units fighting each other in North Hamgyong Province". Or, in other words, less a civil war over who controls the government than a civil war over how much the government (which is by design all core songbun people anyway) can actually control; less Russian Revolution and more Syria.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
The U.S. State Department has approved a sale of precision-guided weapons worth about $258 million to South Korea.
The following was approved for the Asian ally:

- 3953 Joint Direct Attack Munition guidance kits, KMU-556 for GBU-31
- 1981 JDAM guidance kits, KMU-557 for GBU-31 and GBU-56
- 1179 JDAM guidance kits, KMU-572 for GBU-38
- 1755 FMU-139 fuze systems
- DSU-42/B detectors, laser illuminated target for GBU-56
- Weapon spare parts, components and accessories; weapons training aids, devices and spare parts; U.S. government and contractor engineering, technical assistance, and logistical support services; and other related elements of logistical and program support.


Thats quite a lot, but DSCA notifications do not serve as guarantees that sales will happen, because after the sale is also approved by the Congress, the foreign customer can negotiate on price and quantity, both of which can change.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
1. President Moon Jae-in said: “Our defense capabilities are needed not only for deterrence against North Korea, but also for the autonomy of our country stuck between great powers. We should be equipped with defense capabilities befitting such a geopolitical location."

2. If President Moon really wants real autonomy, the Korean Navy should not be building an aircraft carrier without significantly increasing the number of destroyers and large submarines. He should also tell South Korean voters that the US alliance crimps South Korea's freedom of action. Therefore it should be loosened, and that South Korea’s spending on defence would significantly increase — to support a changed build tempo of destroyers and submarines.

3. Further, North Korea may not ‘let’ South Korea enjoy the wider strategic horizons a carrier implies. It may act out in such a way as to compel South Korea to redirect its military and budget attentions back toward the long-standing inter-Korean stalemate – specifically towards the army and missile defence. These concerns push military spending away from navy and back toward the army — or compel a much larger aggregate defense budget.

4. Since Team Biden came to power, they have managed the Korea, Japan nexus as a non-issue (as the Americans strive to attract allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific). With President Moon in power in South Korea, I think the Americans can forget about support from the Koreans to confront China. Sadly, there is an inverse relationship between autonomy and alliance expectations.

5. Given South Korea’s defence spending levels and it’s moderate trajectory, I don’t think President Moon is willing to weaken the alliance when:
(a) China is rising;​
(b) South Koreans' anti-China sentiment is high; and​
(c) poll numbers on support for the alliance is so high.​

6. This is part of the Korean leftist politics — a political theatre of kicking and screaming to work out a better deal on Korean payments (for US troops in Korea), but, ultimately, President Moon will stick with the US.

7. In other news, Seoul has halted all operations involving the F-35A, after a serious malfunction resulted in a belly landing.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
As for PRC opposition to Korean unification, pros and cons from their prospective. Germany struggled during their process but East Germany was in vastly better shape than NK is today. SK is an Asian superstar but taking on 20 million new citizens, many likely damaged from years of starvation won’t be easy. Non military infrastructure is in terrible shape and finding meaningful employment for millions, very difficult. I couldn’t guess on a time frame. Don’t think China needs to be overly concerned except on to dispose of the nuclear program. Xi may disagree however.
Short to medium-term maybe some of those millions could be found employment in labouring in the improvement of infrastructure, planting trees on deforested hillsides (good for agricultural productivity in the long run), & so on.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Short to medium-term maybe some of those millions could be found employment in labouring in the improvement of infrastructure, planting trees on deforested hillsides (good for agricultural productivity in the long run), & so on.
You would have to get them back to a healthy standard first. The vast majority of the NK population are malnourished at the best of times, and at present are starving. It apparently has gone beyond starving because of the pandemic. Even the privileged in Pyongyang are not getting enough food.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Back to the 90s, eh? A few hundred thousand are reckoned to have died in that famine.

That reduces the hours & effort they can put in, but given an adequate diet (administering the distribution of a basic ration would employ many thousands) shouldn't stop the entire population working. Feed the urban population & supplement the diet of farmers. And ship in fertiliser & tools to boost the next crop.

Cost would be huge, but it'd be good for S. Korean manufacturing businesses, & making stuff like small farm machines for peasant farmers could be a good business to shift north ASAP. Plenty of underused factory space, no longer needed arms factories etc., & workers needing things to do. Just make sure not to repeat the German mistake (giving everyone Deutschmarks at a generous exchange rate straight away). Need a transition period in which N. Koreans are mostly kept busy & fed in the north.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Back to the 90s, eh? A few hundred thousand are reckoned to have died in that famine.

That reduces the hours & effort they can put in, but given an adequate diet (administering the distribution of a basic ration would employ many thousands) shouldn't stop the entire population working. Feed the urban population & supplement the diet of farmers. And ship in fertiliser & tools to boost the next crop.

Cost would be huge, but it'd be good for S. Korean manufacturing businesses, & making stuff like small farm machines for peasant farmers could be a good business to shift north ASAP. Plenty of underused factory space, no longer needed arms factories etc., & workers needing things to do. Just make sure not to repeat the German mistake (giving everyone Deutschmarks at a generous exchange rate straight away). Need a transition period in which N. Koreans are mostly kept busy & fed in the north.
You have forgotten the CCP. They will not allow a united Korea under the control of Seoul. The last thing they want is a US ally and US forces across the border from them. I would suspect that Putin would hold a similar view. The CCP treat NK as a buffer state and I suspect that reunification under Seoul would be a red line to far.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The Chinese might be willing to trade a united Korea for the complete withdrawal of US forces, & perhaps the effective demilitarisation of northern Korea. They might see it as a way to get the Koreans to focus on quarrels with Japan.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
The Chinese might be willing to trade a united Korea for the complete withdrawal of US forces, & perhaps the effective demilitarisation of northern Korea. They might see it as a way to get the Koreans to focus on quarrels with Japan.
I think China will prefer a divided Korea as it's a known quantity. A united Korea could just as easily kiss and make up with Japan, especially as the border would shift from a neighbour with relatively poor conventional forces to one of the strongest militaries in the region - and a much longer border to boot.

In any event it's an academic question, as China now has much less control over Pyongyang than it once did. The Kims now have nuclear weapons and a delivery system, so they don't need the Chinese military to stay independent. They also have a large range of luxuries, so unification offers them nothing. I doubt there will be Korean unification before 2100 as things are going right now, if there ever is.
 

BskrCrew

New Member
Just contributing to this thread with a news article. Word is that the DPRK suffered internet outages for a period of 2 weeks thanks to a US security researcher named "P4x." His motivation being him and many other western security researchers getting hacked by North Korean (sympathetic) hackers in the past, and he was appalled by the US govt's nonchalant reaction. He wanted to stand his ground and so provoked the Hermit Kingdom as such.

Considering how outdated North Korea is in almost all aspects, it's not all too surprising that they could be hacked at anytime. But to hear that it has finally happened thanks to an individual is astonishing.

During those 2 weeks, the DPRK was conducting numerous ICBM tests, so one can only wonder how many of these tests were disrupted at the push of a button from across the Pacific Ocean.

P4x mentioned that North Korean civilians were never his intended targets.

Article:
 

swerve

Super Moderator
...
Considering how outdated North Korea is in almost all aspects, it's not all too surprising that they could be hacked at anytime. But to hear that it has finally happened thanks to an individual is astonishing.
...
P4x mentioned that North Korean civilians were never his intended targets.
For a long time N. Korea was unhackable because it wasn't connected. When it was connected to the Internet, it was almost entirely for its spies & hackers, plus a few personal connections for the Kims & a handful of trusted senior people.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Just contributing to this thread with a news article. Word is that the DPRK suffered internet outages for a period of 2 weeks thanks to a US security researcher named "P4x." His motivation being him and many other western security researchers getting hacked by North Korean (sympathetic) hackers in the past, and he was appalled by the US govt's nonchalant reaction. He wanted to stand his ground and so provoked the Hermit Kingdom as such.

Considering how outdated North Korea is in almost all aspects, it's not all too surprising that they could be hacked at anytime. But to hear that it has finally happened thanks to an individual is astonishing.

During those 2 weeks, the DPRK was conducting numerous ICBM tests, so one can only wonder how many of these tests were disrupted at the push of a button from across the Pacific Ocean.

P4x mentioned that North Korean civilians were never his intended targets.

Article:
Also remember only a very few highly trusted individuals get access to the internet and even then they are restricted in what they an access and are closely monitored. According to defectors the internet is not available to the general public and the NK deliberately has an intranet available to trusted Party apparatchiks. The intranet on has Party propaganda material part of which they are required to know by heart. The average NK citizen isn't allowed access to the intranet. If they get caught with devices capable of accessing the PR internet or satellite internet, or with USB drives especially ones with foreign media such as movies, TV shows etc., on them, the penalty is death. If they are shot immediately it is a blessing.
 
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