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Korean Peninsula Developments

Discussion in 'Geostrategic Issues' started by steve621, Jan 11, 2018.

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  1. barney41

    barney41 Member

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    KJU is playing the 'one-upmanship' game IMO. By acting all rational and reasonable, Trump may be pressured to try and outdo him with some impulsive, grand gesture when they meet face to face. All the staff work and strategies leading up to the meeting may not matter with an erratic POTUS. I'm thinking KJU plays him.
     
  2. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    Denuclearisation apparently is a term that hasn't yet been fully defined. My feeling is that it's definition depends upon who the writer is.
     
  3. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    Of course KJU is. Methinks he has POTUS sussed out pretty good. You can say a lot of things about KJU, but one is clear and that he appears to be very disciplined.
     
  4. John Fedup

    John Fedup Well-Known Member

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    Poor General Kelly wishes he could have a disciplined POTUS. I guess expectations are low based on the probable personal interactions between these two let alone the difficult policy differences.
     
  5. STURM

    STURM Well-Known Member

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    The North Koreans will be watching closely to what Trump does with Iran. The U.S. pulling out of the Iranian deal [the IAEA insists the Iranians are keeping up their end of the bargain] will lead to the North Koreans questioning whether Trump will keep his work with any deal he makes with them. With regards to denuclearisation; does this mean that the North Koreans will not be permitted to retain any nuclear facilities for non military purposes? With the Iranians, under the deal signed in 2015; they're allowed to retain nuclear facilities for non military purposes.



    Another question that remains to be seen is whether Trump will try to get the North Koreans to give up their missiles; irrespective of whether armed with nukes or not. This will be the same situation faced with Iran; the Iranians pointing out that missiles were not part of the nuclear deal and are not ICBMs.

    Irrespective of what happens; the 2 Koreas meeting is good; irrespective of what outside powers might think. All sides; including the U.S, will ultimately have to make certain compromises. To expect North Korea to give up its nukes and to better behave; only to receive an end in sanctions and economic aid is gaga land thinking. They'll also want certain reassurances. China will have to be heavily involved to ensure North Korea does what it promises. The question is who will ensure that others do what they promise?



    [The Iran Crisis Presents A Bigger Danger To Peace Than North Korea]
    tps://www.independent.co.uk/voices/iran-nuclear-deal-north-korea-donald-trump-emmanuel-macron-a8326146.html

    ''The Iran crisis is truly dangerous in a way that was never quite true of the North Korea crisis. In Korea, we are talking of a peace agreement that would replace the Panmunjom Armistice of 1953, but there has been no war going on there for 65 years, though there have been a few sporadic clashes. Compare this with the position of Iran which is a rival for influence with the US in a ferocious war in Syria and one that in Iraq that is currently receding, but could easily blaze up again.''

    ''Short of diplomatic options, the White House might view military action against Iran as an increasingly attractive approach. The Iran and North Korea crises are very different but in both cases Trump is behaving as if the US is turning into a stronger power when, thanks to his leadership, it is becoming a weaker one.''
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2018
  6. barney41

    barney41 Member

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    KJU now threatens to scuttle the summit over US/SK military exercises and Trump is is a bind. NK played nice initially knowing Trump would seize on the opportunity for self-aggrandizement, even fanning talk of a future Nobel Prize.

    NK is betting Trump will be too embarrassed to backtrack and play hardball. So they're giving in a slight tug on the line and if Trump does not respond forcefully KJU knows he's got his fish hooked. lol
     
  7. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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  8. t68

    t68 Well-Known Member

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  9. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    Full text of Kim / Trump agreement dated 12/6/2018:

    President Donald J. Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) held a first, historic summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018.

    President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un conducted a comprehensive, in-depth, and sincere exchange of opinions on the issues related to the establishment of new U.S.-DPRK relations and the building of a lasting and robust peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. President Trump committed to provide security guarantees to the DPRK, and Chairman Kim Jong Un reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

    Convinced that the establishment of new U.S.-DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and of the world, and recognizing that mutual confidence building can promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un state the following:


    1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

    2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.


    3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work towards complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

    4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

    Having acknowledged that the U.S.-DPRK summit — the first in history — was an epochal event of great significance and overcoming decades of tensions and hostilities between the two countries and for the opening of a new future, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un commit to implement the stipulations in this joint statement fully and expeditiously. The United States and the DPRK commit to hold follow-on negotiations led by the U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and a relevant high-level DPRK official, at the earliest possible date, to implement the outcomes of the U.S.-DPRK summit.

    President Donald J. Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea have committed to cooperate for the development of new U.S.-DPRK relations and for the promotion of peace, prosperity, and security of the Korean Peninsula and of the world.


    June 12, 2018

    Sentosa Island

    Singapore

    Source Reuters: Trump and Kim's joint statement
     
  10. t68

    t68 Well-Known Member

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    Its a wonder that the Chairman didn't release the USS Pueblo and all foreign Nationals in detention as an act of goodwill.
     
  11. King Wally

    King Wally Member

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    I think given the circumstances this is probably the best possible outcome out of this meeting. It never really was going to end up more detailed than a statement of intent and it appears that has been achieved.

    Fingers crossed the next year ahead can see the follow through of a more detailed action plan.
     
  12. MrConservative

    MrConservative Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Indeed!

    I actually think young Mr Kim is not a total nutcase and has some exposure to the West when he was a teenager at a Swiss boarding school.

    In some respects he has had to over the last 5 years consolidate his power base at home and do a bit of "purging" of internal threats and enemies as one piece of the chessboard (Three more Generals sacked last week), whilst also working towards getting a nuclear capability as another chess piece in which he can then negotiate for economic and diplomatic security guarantees.

    The economic and diplomatic security guarantees with the outside world are longer term a better bet for his regime and personal survival than a small nuclear arsenal and a soviet cold war tech level military. A bit more Disney and a lot less Misery for his people might do the trick.

    The real amusing thing for me yesterday was when he checked out The Beast Presidential Cadillac Limo. A lot more dictator cache than the stretched S Class he showed up in. Trump should send Dennis Rodman and Kim Kardashian over to Pongyang and present him with one as a goodwill gesture. ;)
     
  13. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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    Yes he would of had to have a clean out in order to get his own people in position. I wonder if it's the diehard traditionalists that have met with the executioner and KJU is intending to steer a different course with “Songun Chongch’i” or military-first policies being sidelined. That would upset a few generals and his purges are a methodology for reducing military and party opposition to a new course.
     
    ozrock62 and Rob c like this.
  14. ngatimozart

    ngatimozart Super Moderator Staff Member Verified Defense Pro

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