Korean Peninsula Developments

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1679287977502191617

North Korea launched Hwasong-18 ICBM as show of force against US: State media | NK News

North Korea successfully test-launched its Hwasong-18 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) again on Wednesday, according to state media, calling it a show of force against U.S. “aggression.” Leader Kim Jong Un guided the launch from a private mansion on the east side of...

www.nknews.org

Kim's Hwasong 18 ICBM launch. Interesting on the special build launch area, that take cue from Kim's Family park in their house. I still see it as part of Golf Course, or use to be Golf Course. They call it Natural Park though.

 

[Ananda]

South Korea completes Hyunmoo-V Ballistic Missile Development - Naval News

South Korea's new Hyunmoo-V ballistic missile development is complete. The missile is expected to be fitted on a future arsenal ship...

www.navalnews.com

Well two can play the game. ROK now really fasten the development of their Hyunmoo balistic missile families. ROK seems saying to Kim's family in the North, I can play this game too.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

South Korea completes Hyunmoo-V Ballistic Missile Development - Naval News

South Korea's new Hyunmoo-V ballistic missile development is complete. The missile is expected to be fitted on a future arsenal ship...

www.navalnews.com

Well two can play the game. ROK now really fasten the development of their Hyunmoo balistic missile families. ROK seems saying to Kim's family in the North, I can play this game too.

This kind of missiles is maybe the only answer against North-Korea's threat. But
North Korea seems to have more than 7000 underground facilities, that means that South-Korea needs to construct more than 7000 missiles for a pre-emptive strike to try to destroy most of the nuclear threat, because we don't know where the Kims have hide their stuff.

|"Specifically, the weight of the warhead is estimated to be around 8 to 9 tons which is the heaviest among conventional ballistic missiles, ...."|

I think Navalnews makes a mistake, i cant believe that the warhead is twice as heavy as the mass of the whole missile of similar foreign systems.

 

[Ananda]

think Navalnews makes a mistake, i cant believe that the warhead is twice as heavy as the mass of the whole missile of similar foreign systems.

Yes, bit weird on that warheads weight. However I don't have any other articles or info that specified the warheads description on Hyunmoo 5. Still try looking on Bemil Chosen or other Korean defense sites.

 

[Rob c]

Yes, bit weird on that warheads weight. However I don't have any other articles or info that specified the warheads description on Hyunmoo 5. Still try looking on Bemil Chosen or other Korean defense sites.

I think it would be possible as the range requirement would be short, It still would be a fairly large missile. The German V2 of WW2 of 80years ago carried a one ton warhead back then.

 

[Ananda]

Largest North Korea-China bridge may be preparing for grand opening | NK PRO

China has restarted road work on an unused $350 million bridge to North Korea, NK Pro analysis of satellite imagery shows, raising the possibility the bridge could finally open nine years after being completed. The move comes as North Korea has taken major steps toward reopening in the last...

www.nknews.org

There's expectation that the biggest bridge in Yalu River will be open soon. Something that's been delay due North Korea restrictions for Covid lock down. NK has done more stringent covid prevention even to Chinese standard.

Thus if the bridge being open, I do sense 3 possibilities:

1. NK really need to get trade moving for their not only traffic of goods, but also their commodities supply lines
2. NK actually manage to get more Vaccines to immunize their populations, or
3 NK actual infections rate already high enough, thus natural immunity already happening.

Personally If they opening the bridge I do believe factor #1 that push them to do that. More then concern of Covid.

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1699892757320679628

Seems Kim got his first Balistic Missile Submarine after all. Now when he go to Putin, rumours talk of him asking Putin for Nuclear submarine tech. Thus enable him to turn this into SSBN. Still even with this, already enable him to have Land and Sea based Balistic missile silos.

Note:
They call it tactical nuclear attack submarine. It is obvious they want to put nuclear warhead missile in this. However so far no confirmation that this is nuclear power. Info that come so far before, what they're build still diesel-electric power. In other hand South Korea already beat them with KSS-3.

 

[Redlands18]

North Korea's New Submarine Carries 10 Nuclear Missiles - Naval News
An extensive report from Naval News on the "new" North Korean Submarine, it seems it is a rebuilt Soviet era, Romeo. Definitely a SSK not a SSN and it may not even have Torpedo Tubes. It has 10 missile tubes, possibly of 2 different sizes.

 

[Ananda]

North Korea unveils first tactical, nuclear-armed submarine

North Korea has launched its first operational "tactical nuclear attack submarine" and assigned it to the fleet that patrols the waters between the Korean peninsula and Japan, state media said on Friday.

www.reuters.com

I try to enlarge this submarine 10 silos from picture originate in this Reuters copy. Somehow seems their copy got better pixels. Seems the silos divided into 4 big diameter ones and 6 Smaller ones.

I suspect the 4 big ones for their balistic missile and the 6 smaller ones for cruise missiles. It could be both for balistic missile, but so far info that come out from their testing, shown only one type of submarine balistic missile tested.

Wondering potential cruise missiles for this submarine tough. Anyone has ideas ?

 

[Ananda]

DPRK's new Romeo-mod SSB

북한의 신형 Romeo Mod SSB(ballistic missile submarine)에 대한 여러 정보들을 공유합니다. ↓ 2023.09.0......

bemil.chosun.com

Quite good assesment from Bemil Chosun on the new DPRK Balistic Missile sub.



Enlarge their rendering on missile compartment/silos of this Sub. Just the photo shows 10 Silos divided by 4 Large and 6 Smaller ones. It is clear by building it from their old Romeo class SSK, this is not be intented as ocean going Subs. This is more as litoral balistic missile submarine.

As expected this will provide NK with additional silos that they can move around their litoral waters. Perhaps still within convine protection of their patrol and Corvettes/Frigates and land based air cover. Concept that I believe being developed by Soviet early on their Balistic Missile Subs operation.

Still considering their limitations, it is quite considerable achievement.

Add:

From Sutton H I Sutton - Covert Shores



Seems base on what DPRK SLBM already developed, the smaller diameter could be for Pukguksong-1 SLBM and the bigger one for Pukguksong-5 SLBM. This is base on what already been tested for Submarine launch from underwater test pad. No Cruise missiles being tested from underwater pad, however they (NK) do have cruise missiles that consistent with diameter of smaller silos.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Our Dear Supreme Leader is now already on its way to Russia. Kim's is rumoured to include at least 20 bulletproof cars, making it heavier than average trains and unable to go beyond 59 km/h (37mph). His journey to Vladivostok is expected to take an entire day.

Kim Jong Un: North Korea leader enters Russia to visit Putin

The North Korean leader is headed to Vladivostok to discuss a potential arms deal.

www.bbc.com

Here some more interesting details about the Korean Royal Family transports...

Boats, planes and armoured train: How Kim Jong Un travels abroad

The North Korean leader's train reportedly serves fine French wines and lobster as it rumbles along.

www.bbc.com

 

[Ananda]

Having attended boarding school in Switzerland, Kim Jong Un is no stranger to flying.
In May 2018, he made his first international flight since assuming power, to the Chinese city of Dalian to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Media reports suggest he has previously used his private jet for travel within North Korea.

Here some more interesting details about the Korean Royal Family transports...

Quote from that BBC article, in my opinion shown that unlike his father, present Kim doesn't mind to fly from time to time. So why he choose traveling in train perhaps:

1. He wants to bring enough entourage for his traveling, and his IL-62 and Tu-204 simply not big enough,
2. He believes traveling with armored trains is more grandeur. It is only to Vladivostok, thus not far away from DPRK border,

Air Koryo also so far not getting new airplanes. Also perhaps shown his regime mentality for self isolation. The two countries that still support his regime also it's direct neighbors. Thus no need for long travel. Train is enough.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Air Koryo seems to have one or two Ty-204s in its fleet, everything else are museum pieces.

Russia plans to restart the production of the Tu-204/214, with a rate of 20 per year! Let's see how much time it will take to increase the production rate from 2/year to 20/year.

And about the Il-96, the Il-96-400M has been in development since February 2017, but work was slowed-down due to a lack of interest in the aircraft and in April 2021, UAC announced the type won't be entering mass-production.

But in 2022 a plan of a large scale production relaunch of the Il-96 was announced. And on 7 June 2023, the United Aircraft Corporation rolled-out its new Il-96-400M. So now we have to wait until the first flight of this prototype, and then after years of testing and certification, full production can start, and only after this we can see the first export orders for countries like Cuba, Iran and North-Korea.

 

[Ananda]

From Indonesian Kompas TV on Kim's agenda in Russia. This is coming from RT TV interview with Putin himself. Seems as YouTube will not put Russian video directly, but no problem if it is upload from other media.

Sorry the caption in Indonesia, but basically Putin say:

1. Kim will go to Komsomolsk-on-Amur to see Aero Industry there. Kim's seems according to Putin will fly back and forth to Vladivostok. If so, then it is shown he doesn't mind to fly as long as not with Western Plane. More likely if he fly in Russia either with Tu-204/214 or Putin's IL-96.
2. In Vladivostok he will see Russian Pacific Fleet facilities and assets.
3. The discussion in Vladivostok asside Defense, also relate to wide range of economic co-op.

 

[ngatimozart]

Quote from that BBC article, in my opinion shown that unlike his father, present Kim doesn't mind to fly from time to time. So why he choose traveling in train perhaps:

1. He wants to bring enough entourage for his traveling, and his IL-62 and Tu-204 simply not big enough,
2. He believes traveling with armored trains is more grandeur. It is only to Vladivostok, thus not far away from DPRK border,

Air Koryo also so far not getting new airplanes. Also perhaps shown his regime mentality for self isolation. The two countries that still support his regime also it's direct neighbors. Thus no need for long travel. Train is enough.

It could be that Kim doesn't trust his personal safety to aircraft that are not modern and he may have doubts about their airworthiness.

 

[ngatimozart]

I think that the questions have to be asked:

• What does Kim Jong Un want from this meeting?
  • What is the minimum payment that Kim will accept?
• What does Putin want from this meeting?
  • What is Putin prepared to pay for it?

I think in answer Putin wants artillery ammo and other weapons. Is he willing to trade Russian missile, rocket, satellite, and nuclear tech / information for it? If he is desperate enough I think he will. OTOH Kim will be after Russian missile, rocket, satellite, and nuclear tech / information because he has so far failed to get a satellite into orbit after two attempts, and he will be after the ability to miniaturise his nuclear warheads. His shopping list may also include modern Russian sensors, aircraft, weapons etc. I think he does have the upper hand this time because he has something that Putin desperately wants. The real question is how desperate is Putin and what he's willing to pay.

Putin will have to be careful because the PRC may not be very happy if he gives Kim to much nuclear technology. They don't mind a well armed NK on their border, but they d want one that is dependent upon them and one with advanced nuclear capabilities may be unacceptable to Beijing. They don't fully trust NK. They realise that Putin needs PRC support and that he very much is the junior partner in the Sino - Russo relationship. They think that because of this they have some leverage over Putin. Putin must realise this and he cannot afford to lose PRC support. I posted elsewhere on here last week that I think the PRC may ship war material to Russia using NK as the conduit. That gives them the illusion of plausible deniability because they can say:

"We exported it to our fraternal socialist brothers in North Korea to enhance their defence against the war mongering South Koreans and the hegemonistic Americans, who are the oppressors of the peaceful, freedom loving democratic proletariat. Unfortunately our fraternal socialist brothers in North Korea, in their zeal to help the Russian nation in its fight against the Ukrainian and NATO Nazis, made an error of judgement over which we have no control."​

 

[Ananda]

think in answer Putin wants artillery ammo and other weapons

Russia definitely will welcome additional artillery ammo supplies that DPRK can give. However that's mostly what they can give that valued by Russian this time around.

I do suspect the move more likely to give nervousness to ROK and Japan. Perhaps warn them not to get involve more on US lead movement to arm Ukrainian. China also don't mind for more nervous Japan and ROK.

Putin will have to be careful because the PRC may not be very happy if he gives Kim to much nuclear technology.

I think even Putin Russia is also can be nervous for more nuclear sophisticated DPRK. Thus seems what (well base on what Putin want Kim to see), related more to Aviation Tech. Thus Putin so far seems offering more to improving NK aviation (civilian and military). Also he open Kim to see Naval tech as shown on Russian Pacific Fleet.

Those two area where NK fall far behind ROK and Japan. Not that what Russia can give will be at par on what ROK and Japan already build up. However closing the gap on Aviation and Naval will increase nervousness from both strongest US Allies in Pacific.

 

[Ananda]

North Korea's Kim inspects Russian fighter jet plant under Western sanctions

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Friday inspected a Russian fighter jet factory that is under Western sanctions, part of a visit Washington and its allies fear could strengthen Russia's military in Ukraine and bolster Pyongyang's missile program.

www.reuters.com

Some photos that DPRK and Russian official site put online during Kim's visit to Komsomolsk-on-Armur aviation industry complex. Su-35 and SSJ-100 seems getting much attention from Kim. Both can be valuable assets to improve capabilities of DPRK AF and Air Koryo.

This visit seems the highlight on Kim's agenda in Russia. Seems indicating this is the offer that Russia can make it available soon. Satellite talks indicating Russian wiling to help NK to improve its surveillance capabilities.

One thing on the Reuter article and video that personally I agree (and already put in previous posts before). Any threat by US to both NK and Russia is just talk. US already lost any leverege left to Russia let alone NK. Unless US want to have war with both Russian and NK, nothing else they can do.

Price consequences? What Price cost that US and Allies can still throw to them now? Putin clearly doing this to make ROK and Japan more nervous. Putin clearly now want to further Armed DPRK. However so far Russia (and seems drive by their own concern and China), also not shown hint on nuclear tech co-op. Guess there's still limit on what they want to open to NK.

Add:
YouTube video from Indonesian Kompas TV that upload that from Russian TV.

 

[Ananda]

Video from Yonhap on yesterday military parade in Seoul. Unlike their neighbors in the north, ROK seldom doing Military parade. Last one they done that a decade ago.

This is officially to celebrate ROK Armed Forces 75th day. However it is clearly to show case not only to Kim's regime, but also China and Russia even to domestic audiences that ROK Military is a very capable force now.

In video Military equipment parade begin at 14:00.

 

[swerve]

And even North Korea doesn't want Travis King - Travis King in US custody after North Korea expulsion

A messed-up life.