Korean Peninsula Developments
- Thread starter steve621
- Start date
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Talk is cheaper than the alternatives, the SK’s are well aware of the Kim dynasty BS as are their allies. That being said, painful choices down the road may be necessary.
Why would SK alienate itself from the US? The talking between the two Koreas may just prevent a shooting war. If the US decides to unilaterally attack NK, then it could be accused of committing an act of wanton aggression. NK having nuclear weapons is not just cause for any unilateral attack by the US. It certainly wouldn't be sanctioned by the UN because both China and Russia would veto any such authorisation request in the Security Council. Things were less tense until Kim Jong Un and Trump decided to have a contest about who's dick was the biggest.
Fixed for accuracy.
In all seriousness though, the Koreas talking directly might accomplish more then the US talking to the DPRK.
Mostly because Moon Jae-In, the ROK President, is (probably) more than a little anti-American (though it may also be phrased that he's anti-anti North Korea more than he's really anti-American per se).
IIRC, since the UN is already over there and still kinda/sorta/technically at war (and the North has repeatedly pulled out of the armistice agreement), there would not necessarily have to be a reauthorization from the UNSC if someone wanted go kinetic.
I fail to see how talks between both Koreas can cause any harm. Perhaps the solution for peace is for both to have talks without being pressured on by outside powers. The problem of course is what happens if talks fail to achieve anything in the near future. Outside powers will then claim that the North is just buying time and that other ways have to found to make the North 'behave'.
gazzzwp
Member
On the upcoming talks between Kim and Don.
One theory says that having been kicked out of bed by both superpowers the best way to be invited back into any bed would be to threaten to jump in with the other.
China are already making noises about losing NK from their sphere of influence.
The joys of geo-politics.
China fears Kim is moving out of its orbit as South Korea, US talks loom - CNN
I don't think china are worrying much, the alternative, war in Korea is much worse . it's not like US and NK gonna become buddies overnight
I would say that the PRC are worrying quite a bit about this latest development. The last thing they want is a Korean nation on it's borders that is friendly to the US. The PRC want a buffer state between them and SK.
t68
Well-Known Member
Opinion | North Korea’s Phony Peace Ploy
An interesting opinion of the Korean talks, the antagonistic rhetoric from the North is not just going to fade away. What to see if they actually recognise the government of S Korea to exist.
An interesting opinion of the Korean talks, the antagonistic rhetoric from the North is not just going to fade away. What to see if they actually recognise the government of S Korea to exist.
China is not worried about the 2 Koreas meeting as it too benefits. What it wants is to avoid being in a position where a future deal between North Korea and the U.S. effects China's interests. A deal between both Koreas which lessens the possibility of war will be welcomed in Beijing. We may have over estimated how much influence China really has over North Korea but at the end of the day North Korea will not do anything major to annoy China. There is also a possibility that behind the scenes China has pressured North Korea's leader to behave; including a temporary halt on nuke and missile tests.
If anything, it is the U.S. that should be worried. There is a possibility that the 2 Koreas might reach some level of agreement which is not entirely to the U.S's liking. No doubt like everyone else the U.S. wants stability on the Korean peninsular but too much stability in the coming years and decades might see less need for a continued U.S. military presence in South Korea. We tend to forget that although U.S. troops in South Korea are largely aimed at defending South Korea from North Korea; the troops can also be used for other purposes; namely a conflict with China.
Personally I'm of the opinion that both Koreas should meet. Perhaps [without foreign interference] they'll be able to produce results that can be mutually beneficial.
North Korea is changing
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Perhaps a meeting will,produce results but still, this meeeting is with a guy who executed his uncle as well as executing a general with an AA gun. Oh, and he had his half brother murdered. The family business has operated for three generations abusing its citizens using starvation as its control mechanism. All,previous agreements have been broken. Don't think the Vegas odds are positive on this meeting.
What he has done to stay in power and what can result from a meeting are 2 very profoundly different things and far better than a potential war. Regardless of the odds; diplomacy has a far better chance of threats of war and sanctions; both have deterred North Korea.
Sure, South Korea will be negotiating with a leader who has blood on his hands but this is nothing new; done routinely by South Korea's main ally as well as others.
Sure, South Korea will be negotiating with a leader who has blood on his hands but this is nothing new; done routinely by South Korea's main ally as well as others.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Generationally speaking, Kim Jung Un is at the shallow end of the gene pool based on his behaviour as compared to his father and grandfather and agreements with them were useless. Now NK’s relationship with China is probably eroded due to Kim Jung Un’s purging of pro China officials and this may be why he might just might be a little more open to calming things down. The bottom line is he is unpredictable to say the least. As you say, talking is better than the alternative but stuff happens.
The first official visit he made abroad was to China where he received a big welcome. That is telling and reinforces the fact that no matter what he does; China simply can't cut ties with him. Both countries need each other.
Realistically I don't see North Korea giving up its nukes anymore than I can see the U.S. one day deciding to talk openly about Israel's nukes. If however the talks led to a lessening of tensions and North Korea ceases all further tests; its a beginning. South Korea and the U.S. also will have to make certain compromises as part of any deal. We can't expect things to be one sided and for only North Korea to make compromises.
Realistically I don't see North Korea giving up its nukes anymore than I can see the U.S. one day deciding to talk openly about Israel's nukes. If however the talks led to a lessening of tensions and North Korea ceases all further tests; its a beginning. South Korea and the U.S. also will have to make certain compromises as part of any deal. We can't expect things to be one sided and for only North Korea to make compromises.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Publicly yes but in private...? Agree China won't throw NK (Kim Jung Un) under the bus but there must be mornings that Xi would like to.
It appears that both SK and NK have agreed to end the state of war, that currently exists between them. They also have agreed to commit to denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. If these agreements are stuck to and outside parties do not try to queer the pitch, this will indeed be a historic achievement.
I fervently hope that this doesn't become a repeat of the Munich agreement "peace in our time"
Me too. This is an English translation of the full text of the Panmunjeon Declaration, compliments of the Korea Times.
t68
Well-Known Member
Denuclearisation? does that mean that South Korea has to denounce the American nuclear umbrella and all foreign troops removed from the South. that would also work two way's the North would have to denounce China as well.
that's an interesting one South Korea problem is not just the North, I wonder what south Korean disarmament means to the North?
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