Is Turkey preparing to open a Military front against Al-Assad

[My2Cents]

1-Rumor has it that, Putin is proposing that Assad hands over power to Farouk Sharaa and the current defense minister leads the regime army and the FSA. It seems that Putin did not find any taker of his proposal and opposition has refused that.

Any idea where Russia proposed for Assad family to go? Because without an escape hatch, and a way to enjoy their stolen wealth, the family will never accept the proposal.

2- FSA to merge with regime army and Russians to name the generals it wants to keep.

The rebels would never accept that, and it would make Syria a Russian puppet in the eyes of world.

 

[explorer9]

Any idea where Russia proposed for Assad family to go? Because without an escape hatch, and a way to enjoy their stolen wealth, the family will never accept the proposal.



The rebels would never accept that, and it would make Syria a Russian puppet in the eyes of world.

Again the rumors are brewing that Assad with his Family and close associates are looking for asylum in a South American country most probably Venezuela or Cuba. Assad’s deputy PM is in South America on official visit for the said arrangements.


That is the impasse; Russia is accentuating the Zimbabwe or Kenya like arrangement in Syria where incumbent and opposition forms the Government jointly but Turkey, Arabs and West do not want Assad to remain in power anymore.

 

[colay]

Sen. McCain opined several days ago that by drawing a line in the sand on the use of chemical weapons, Washington may just be validating in Assad's mind that he can get away with pretty much everything else in his arsenal without fear of intervention. Still, with the lessons from Libya still fresh can the US risk those stockpiles of WMDs falling into the wrong hands with each passing day? Or is a bloody stalemate the best course for the US at this time?

 

[My2Cents]

Sen. McCain opined several days ago that by drawing a line in the sand on the use of chemical weapons, Washington may just be validating in Assad's mind that he can get away with pretty much everything else in his arsenal without fear of intervention. Still, with the lessons from Libya still fresh can the US risk those stockpiles of WMDs falling into the wrong hands with each passing day? Or is a bloody stalemate the best course for the US at this time?

All it tells Assad is that as long as something is not going on with chemical weapons, which probably includes movement or the appearance of rebels inside the storage areas, the US and NATO are unlikely to take unilateral action with UN approval.

OK, that does validate pretty much anything else, but what is the anything else he has got left? Suggestions anyone?

The end game for those chemical weapons is critical, because they must not fall into the wrong hands. This brings up several questions:

1. Do we have an arrangement with the rebels to secure and hand over the chemical weapons once they come into possession?
2. Are we set to respond is Assad just pulls out the troops guarding those weapons?
3. Is NATO, especially the EU members, prepared to tell the ICC to get lost and approve asylum for Assad in exchange for a handover of the chemical weapons? It is very likely that Assad see’s those weapons as a ‘get out of jail free’ card.
4. What will NATO do if Assad invites them in to take over some of the chemical weapons storage sites (he cannot give up all the sites without losing option 3) so he can put the troops stationed there to use against the rebels? These are probably some of his best troops remaining.
   
   And how are the rebels likely to respond? Will they see this as western support for Assad?

 

[colay]

Just being reported now on CNN that Syrian military are in the process of loading precursor chemicals into bombs for airborne delivery. I would think that this development is actually a couple of days delayed and is actually what prompted the Obama warning earlier this week.
If accurate, it could be a bluff by Assad but it just raises the stakes that much more.

 

[explorer9]

Just being reported now on CNN that Syrian military are in the process of loading precursor chemicals into bombs for airborne delivery. I would think that this development is actually a couple of days delayed and is actually what prompted the Obama warning earlier this week.
If accurate, it could be a bluff by Assad but it just raises the stakes that much more.

The CNN storey on Syrian chemical weapons loading into warheads is overhyped and highly exaggerated. The decision of using WMD is collective one by top brass or coterie around the incumbent leader and they all very well know the aftermath of their action. Assad or any other dictator would not use chemical weapons in the current situation even Iran, Russia and china the steadfast supporters of Syrian government will give their nod to the removal of Assad regime in that scenario.

 

[colay]

The CNN storey on Syrian chemical weapons loading into warheads is overhyped and highly exaggerated. The decision of using WMD is collective one by top brass or coterie around the incumbent leader and they all very well know the aftermath of their action. Assad or any other dictator would not use chemical weapons in the current situation even Iran, Russia and china the steadfast supporters of Syrian government will give their nod to the removal of Assad regime in that scenario.

The war planners in the Pentagon don't have the luxury of assuming the threat is not real. Even assumptions about the Syrian leadership's rationality cannot be taken for granted.

 

[dragon7]

Turkey isn't going to throw all their development into the dustbin by waging a full-fledged war. And you rightly anticipated that it will be used to threaten Al-Assad or most probably to create safe heaven near the sectors of its border with Syria.

:jump:jump:jump
You're wrong

[Mod Edit]
Care to back this up with any evidence or reasons? So far, you're in violation of the posting guidelines. I advise you to read the Forum Rules before posting again.
[/Mod Edit]

 

[My2Cents]

The CNN storey on Syrian chemical weapons loading into warheads is overhyped and highly exaggerated. The decision of using WMD is collective one by top brass or coterie around the incumbent leader and they all very well know the aftermath of their action. Assad or any other dictator would not use chemical weapons in the current situation even Iran, Russia and china the steadfast supporters of Syrian government will give their nod to the removal of Assad regime in that scenario.

Agreed. But, by being seen to prepare them, Assad may be trying to create pressure on the Arab and western powers to force a settlement in his favor. He does not have many other cards left to play at this point.

 

[STURM]

The Russians seem to think that too much hype has been placed on Syria's chemical stockpile.

Russia says West has exaggerated chemical weapons threat from Syria - Middle East - World - The Independent

Syria's statement that 'chemicals will never be used against it's own people but only against a foreign agressor' tells us a lot. Irrespective of what condition Syria's chemical stockpile is in or how much they actually have, the main worry for those contemplating intervention is that Syria means what she said in that chemicals will only be used against a 'foreign agressor'.

[*] Do we have an arrangement with the rebels to secure and hand over the chemical weapons once they come into possession?

Who's to say that the rebels will be so willing to cooperate? And which rebels do 'we' have an arrangement with, as you're aware there are a few groups and there are new groups popping up. The rebels might decide that the end game is near, that it's just a matter of time before Assad leaves and that they don't need outside help anymore. As seen in Libya, the rebels 'we ' support [and put on a pedestal] to overthrow the evil dictator, can turn out to be something very different from what was hoped. What happens if Assad leaves and the Alawites retreat to their mountains and declare that because the Sunni majority is out for their blood, that some chemicals have been kept by them? What will the West do then, intervene against the Alawites in the midst of secretarian strife? What happens if the small detachment of Russian Marines that are rumoured to be in Latakia gets hold of some chemicals and refuses to hand them over to the West, with the Russian government saying that they will be transported to Russia and be destroyed?

A very interesting article written by an American who spent months in Dasmascus.

http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/a-hot-summer-in-syria

Sen. McCain opined several days ago that by drawing a line in the sand on the use of chemical weapons, Washington may just be validating in Assad's mind that he can get away with pretty much everything else in his arsenal without fear of intervention.

Which brings to mind that not to long ago there was a 'dictator' who actually used chemicals on his own people and got away scott free. But of course much later when he had the audacity to invade the wrong country and started to be an inconveniance, he was done away with.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20553826

 

[My2Cents]

Who's to say that the rebels will be so willing to cooperate? And which rebels do 'we' have an arrangement with, as you're aware there are a few groups and there are new groups popping up. The rebels might decide that the end game is near, that it's just a matter of time before Assad leaves and that they don't need outside help anymore. As seen in Libya, the rebels 'we ' support [and put on a pedestal] to overthrow the evil dictator, can turn out to be something very different from what was hoped. What happens if Assad leaves and the Alawites retreat to their mountains and declare that because the Sunni majority is out for their blood, that some chemicals have been kept by them? What will the West do then, intervene against the Alawites in the midst of secretarian strife? ?

Exactly.

What happens if the small detachment of Russian Marines that are rumoured to be in Latakia gets hold of some chemicals and refuses to hand them over to the West, with the Russian government saying that they will be transported to Russia and be destroyed?

Ask them if they could use any help.

Which brings to mind that not to long ago there was a 'dictator' who actually used chemicals on his own people and got away scott free. But of course much later when he had the audacity to invade the wrong country and started to be an inconveniance, he was done away with.

BBC News - Halabja chemical weapons: A chance to find the men who armed Saddam

{sarc} Ridiculous. Everyone knows that Saddam never had any weapons of mass destruction. It was all a lie invented by the Bush White House so they could invade Iraq and steal all the oil.{/sarc}

Of course he got away with it, Saddam had Russia, China, and 2/3rd of the left wing of the western political system protecting him from the thieving capitalists and their warmongering military.

 

[gf0012-aust]

/politics off alert

 

[STURM]

Assad must he having sleepless nights worrying about who might defect next. As long as the Alawite elite, the business community and the other minorities stick by him, he probably has a chance but who knows what will happen next? A possibility is that if things get worse, Alawite elements in the military and the security services might mount a coup in the hope that this will placate the rebels and those calling for regime survival. The worse thing that could possibly happen to Assad at present is to wake up one morning and find MBTs parked outside with their main guns pointed at his residence.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...issis-defection-that-has-changed-8382203.html

1. Are there any only online sources that give a reliable estimate as to the type of chemicals and quantities that Syria has?

2. Do we know for certain if Syria has chemical warheads for its Scuds?

3. Did Syria ever get its Iskanders from Russia? Most online sources say Syia did take delivery but some say the deal was canceled by the Russians.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...the-truth-about-chemical-weapons-8393539.html

http://www.armscontrol.org/2012_07-08/Plans_for_Syrian_Chemical_Stocks_Drafted

http://rt.com/news/syria-chemical-weapons-assad-608/

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NIik5NoVb8"]Syria readying chemical weapons -- Anderson Cooper 360 - CNN.com Blogs.mp4 - YouTube[/nomedia]

 

[My2Cents]

2. Do we know for certain if Syria has chemical warheads for its Scuds?

This can probably be taken as given.

Chemical warheads for Scuds should not be hard to design since most the engineering details would have been worked out already designing aerial bombs. Scuds are the weapon that Syria possessed most likely to penetrate Israeli air defenses.

 

[Kantervo]

They don't need to open a military front

Such actions would seem more than inappropriate. For anti-Assad forces it is enough to use Turkey's border in order to transfer mercenary troops and weapons (as rumors circulate, by the way, funded by Gulf monarchies and Western powers). The length of this border is suitable. And Turkish direct envolvement is simply inadequate in terms of foreign affairs.

 

[explorer9]

Situation is turning to the point of final assault on Syria. Two days back head of Syrian opposition Muaz Al-Khatib showed his readiness to begin the negotiation with Al-Assad's representative, the negotiation proposal is well coordinated wit Israeli air strikes on Syrian military facilities and military cargo.

 

[My2Cents]

Situation is turning to the point of final assault on Syria. Two days back head of Syrian opposition Muaz Al-Khatib showed his readiness to begin the negotiation with Al-Assad's representative, the negotiation proposal is well coordinated wit Israeli air strikes on Syrian military facilities and military cargo.

The proposal by Muaz Al-Khatib to negotiate with the regime states that Al-Assad will not be allowed to remain in power. Since Al-Assad will not enter negotiations unless his remaining in power is assured in advance this is a non-starter, and both sides know it.

The Israeli air strikes do not appear to be directly related to the civil war in Syria. Israel claims they struck a convoy taking SA-17 missile parts to Lebanon/Hezbollah, Syria claims they struck a nearby research facility. Not clear if there was 1 strike or 2.

Coincidence, not coordination. I doubt even Al-Assad believes they are connected.

 

[explorer9]

The proposal by Muaz Al-Khatib to negotiate with the regime states that Al-Assad will not be allowed to remain in power. Since Al-Assad will not enter negotiations unless his remaining in power is assured in advance this is a non-starter, and both sides know it.

The Israeli air strikes do not appear to be directly related to the civil war in Syria. Israel claims they struck a convoy taking SA-17 missile parts to Lebanon/Hezbollah, Syria claims they struck a nearby research facility. Not clear if there was 1 strike or 2.

Coincidence, not coordination. I doubt even Al-Assad believes they are connected.

I think the air strikes from Israel were the coordinated one. It seems that these strikes will soften up and will setup the parameters of further air strike with in Syrian territory on the pretext of securing the chemical weapons or missile transfer to enemies.

 

[My2Cents]

I think the air strikes from Israel were the coordinated one. It seems that these strikes will soften up and will setup the parameters of further air strike with in Syrian territory on the pretext of securing the chemical weapons or missile transfer to enemies.

It is strike (singular), not strikes, all the reports agree on this now.

1 strike hardly qualifies as 'softening up'. It would take a systematic SEED campaign with a minimum several dozens, and probably over 100, coordinate strikes to open the way through Syria's air defense network for airborne troops to seize Syria's chemical weapons.

 

[Beatmaster]

It is strike (singular), not strikes, all the reports agree on this now.

1 strike hardly qualifies as 'softening up'. It would take a systematic SEED campaign with a minimum several dozens, and probably over 100, coordinate strikes to open the way through Syria's air defense network for airborne troops to seize Syria's chemical weapons.

Even tho its backed by facts most of the whole Syrian situation is speculation at best.
Keep in mind Assad has said it would probably use Chemicals against foreign aggressors so that would state that he would never use it against his own people, well fact is that more then 50% of the rebel force fighting him is foreign, as people from around the world move to Syria to take up arms against him.
So i can see him using chem against his own population under the "foreign aggressor" pretext.

Now with respect to Israel and Turkey both of the can virtually do what ever they want to do to Syria if they would intervene for whatever reason.
But both also create way more problems in the region, then the region is already experiencing by taking that action.
Keep in mind the Syria conflict is sort of contained which will break open if there is a intervention.
On the other hand doing nothing will mean that after Assad there will be enough rebel forces to try to create a sharia state as most of them trying to achieve that.
And thats even less desirable by the international community, not to mention that Israel would NOT like that.
And IMO there has been said a lot in various topics about how thing would go and what the next step would be and its proven wrong and inaccurate not to mention that the time to seriously do something without going risking a full blown conflict is also way past due.
So everything else after this point is speculation as the international community was more busy with looking strong and tough rather then stopping Assad when they could.
As has been said before Russia for one should not have been allowed to shield Syria in the way it did, and their VETO back then could have been turned around using the Arab league its authority to do something about it (NATO or the International community) could have side stepped Russia back then.

Just saying speculations run wild, but actions are ZERO and now many months later the international community can wash their hands in blood as they sit and watch Assad having it his way.

Sorry for the personal comments let me explain:
I got 2 Syrian friends who moved to the Netherlands years ago, we shared most of our childhood being on the same school and later high school and eventually we stayed close friends, and present time a few months ago they suddenly went missing.
It turned out that they went to Syria to fight against Assad, and a few weeks ago they got reported dead and their personal stuff has been send home to their wives and kids.
Now all their friends and family gathered as a token of respect for them and parts from their diary where read by the family to tell everyone what sort of time they experienced over there as the 2 kept a tight record of their everyday exp over there.
And based upon that info and the shocking details, my eyes sort of opened and i have to admit that even what the news does show and the many user based you tube movies does not even come close to what the average person experiences every single day since that war started.
And i for one must admit that i knew it was bad, but this bad? i did not have a clue.
And with respect to all the great posters here in this forum i am sorry but most of it is speculation and does not even remotely resembles what is going on over there.
That being said if i may quote from one of the pages:

The world has left us out here to rot, to busy with euro or dollar problems, to busy with trying to not losing face, and most of them are already dividing the spoils of war after Assad is being removed while the people on the ground die without reason and with out dignity or respect. So much for international security and democracy.

And thats a direct quote out of the final pages written in one of the diaries.
It is largely personal and i hope you guys can read between the lines.
So now you know why i said in the beginning of my reply that i think its all speculation at best.