Is Pakistan really strategically that important?

[STURM]

Aghanistan engaging in some real politik -

Karzai seals strategic pact with India - Central & South Asia - Al Jazeera English

In recent years Indian involvement in Afghanistan, in which Pakistan has long been meddling in the past few decades in for its own selfish interests, has been on the rise. My prediction is that after the U.S. fully withdraws, the next big players in Afghanistan will be India, China, and Russia, again, for strategic and commercial reasons. How the Pakistani's deal with their lost of influence in Afghanistan remains to be seen.

Pakistan is strategically important. because it has still nuclear weapons...

For a number of reasons, Pakistan was strategiclly important way before it had a nuclear capability. Though the Soviets invaded Afghanistan to prop up a friendly socialist regime - to ensure that it's southern flank was secure and to avoid any problems splliing over to its Central Asian republics, there were fears in the West and amongst the Arabs, that the 1979 invasion was part of a master plan to gain access to land access to the Indian Ocean. Had that happened, Pakistan would have been in the frontline.

A BBC article on the Taliban which despite NATO's best efforts, still remains a major player and a big problem for the Kabul government.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-15132461

 

[Twinblade]

India to train Afghan Forces

The proposal to train the Afghan National Security Forces was included in the first-ever Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) signed on Tuesday by Mr. Karzai and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during their third extensive meeting this year.

India has started stepping up its exposure to the security scenario in Afghanistan by operationalising an airbase in Tajikistan, which has since been used to strike at the top leadership of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. It has also sought permission to reopen a hospital at Farkhor on the Afghan border.

The two sides would also cooperate more closely at the United Nations, one of the objectives being to help India gain a permanent seat on the Security Council.

In addition to dealing with political and security cooperation aspects, the SPA spells out trade and economic cooperation in much greater detail, covering aspects ranging from assisting Afghanistan in developing trading routes to exploring for hydrocarbons and mineral ores the country is abundantly endowed with.

I don't need to be a fortune teller to predict further violence and hostility in the region. Interesting bit about the base in Tajikistan, possible UAV support for ANA ?

 

[dragonfire]

completely agreed with dragon fire
that is what i was trying to say

I really doubt if thats all you were trying to say, obviously you have already said a lot more

4 qing class submarines and 2 054a ffg frigates:-

The deal was signed between Wuhan-based China State Shipbuilding Industrial Corp (CSIC) and Pakistani Government in April 2011 is for 6 Qing class submarine,

So is there a deal if so is it for 4 subs or 6 ?
Please share the source for your information

Also regarding the JF-17,if PAF believes that it is a good platform for its needs and it is within the means of the Pakistani economy then doesnt matter what others state or think.

 

[dragonfire]

India to train Afghan Forces



I don't need to be a fortune teller to predict further violence and hostility in the region. Interesting bit about the base in Tajikistan, possible UAV support for ANA ?

The Farkhor Airbase and Hospital have been coming up in discussions wrt IAF for a few years now. At one point IAF Mig-29s were supposed to have been deployed there but there is no open source information to prove this. Then there were some tid bits about IAF Helos being deployed there, from the material i read there must have been some plans which did not take off as expected but a Hospital & helos seem to have been deployed

Also i doubt if the Airbase / the Indian Assets were used to attack targets in Uzbekistan.

Also there was an interesting discussion between India & Iran at one point (at the time there was heavy engagement for a Natural Gas Pipeline, before the US rocked that boat) for India to be able to use Iranian soil for it armed forces, dont know if it was ever signed etc since the news went dead post that. If that deal went through plus the Tajik airbase it would be an interesting build to counter Pakistan's strategic importance and bring about a certain element of encirclement by India, with India engaging Afganistan, Tajikistan and Iran

 

[Beatmaster]

Also there was an interesting discussion between India & Iran at one point (at the time there was heavy engagement for a Natural Gas Pipeline, before the US rocked that boat) for India to be able to use Iranian soil for it armed forces, dont know if it was ever signed etc since the news went dead post that. If that deal went through plus the Tajik airbase it would be an interesting build to counter Pakistan's strategic importance and bring about a certain element of encirclement by India, with India engaging Afganistan, Tajikistan and Iran

Would that not be a tricky move from India? As Both India and Pakistan are going on a peacefull path.
relations between both improved in the last years and with Iran, Afganistan, Iraq as warzones/ potential warzones and China's major buildup India has differend problems to worry about, also India is by far superior to the pakistany army so if you take the nuke capability that pakistan has away then the real danger for india comes from China as a direct rival so imo it would be better and more strategic to them to help the region to keep its stability then undermining it by securing strategic assest towards the pakistan...

 

[Twinblade]

Would that not be a tricky move from India? As Both India and Pakistan are going on a peacefull path.
relations between both improved in the last years and with Iran, Afganistan, Iraq as warzones/ potential warzones and China's major buildup India has differend problems to worry about, also India is by far superior to the pakistany army so if you take the nuke capability that pakistan has away then the real danger for india comes from China as a direct rival so imo it would be better and more strategic to them to help the region to keep its stability then undermining it by securing strategic assest towards the pakistan...

The thing with Iran was pre 2008. The proposed Iran India gas pipeline had to pass through Pakistan and its territorial waters and was one big diplomatic and strategic headache. The US eased the situation by letting us go of the Albatross, that relations with Iran were, by providing an equivalent in nuclear energy via NSG waiver.

 

[dragonfire]

Would that not be a tricky move from India? As Both India and Pakistan are going on a peacefull path.
relations between both improved in the last years and with Iran, Afganistan, Iraq as warzones/ potential warzones and China's major buildup India has differend problems to worry about, also India is by far superior to the pakistany army so if you take the nuke capability that pakistan has away then the real danger for india comes from China as a direct rival so imo it would be better and more strategic to them to help the region to keep its stability then undermining it by securing strategic assest towards the pakistan...

As Twinblade has detailed it was a move undertaken a few years back. The idea was to share the Indian Strategic moves undertaken to counter the Strategic endeavors of Pakistan. Even today in Pakistan Administered Kashmir there are over 4000 Chinese personnel undertaking various activities most of whom are supposed to be Military or from Military Allied organisations of PLA. Also when we discuss China-Pak strategic relationship it is also important to note the ceding of the Trans-Karkaorum Tract in 1963 a piece of land of about 5000 km2+ currently under the complete control and administration of the PRC. Amongst other things it was a move which had the Chinese entrenched in that area and thereby can be definitely considered as a hedging move keeping India in mind

 

[Beatmaster]

As Twinblade has detailed it was a move undertaken a few years back. The idea was to share the Indian Strategic moves undertaken to counter the Strategic endeavors of Pakistan. Even today in Pakistan Administered Kashmir there are over 4000 Chinese personnel undertaking various activities most of whom are supposed to be Military or from Military Allied organisations of PLA. Also when we discuss China-Pak strategic relationship it is also important to note the ceding of the Trans-Karkaorum Tract in 1963 a piece of land of about 5000 km2+ currently under the complete control and administration of the PRC. Amongst other things it was a move which had the Chinese entrenched in that area and thereby can be definitely considered as a hedging move keeping India in mind

So correct me if i understand this wrongly but can china use this region as a staging place to counter any indian agression to protect its strategic intrests in pakistan?
Also after reading your reply i was wondering what are the odds anyway that India or Pakistan end up in a serious military action towards eachother, baring in mind that China is supporting Pakistan....So what is India doing to maintain their fragile peace and fragile hold on the region / their own national security and intrests?
Because like China india is a big powerhouse that is hungering for resources and with the increasing economic and military power i believe that India is going to follow suit for their own survival correct?

 

[dragonfire]

So correct me if i understand this wrongly but can china use this region as a staging place to counter any indian agression to protect its strategic intrests in pakistan?

China and India share a long border have on-going border disputes as well

Can China use the region and in what ways depends on a lot of variables, also Chinese physical presence in not everywhere in Pakistan, the concentration would majorly be in Pakistan administered Kashmir, Gwador Port etc.

But China can take Indian focus away by opening another front on India's Eastern borders if it so chooses.

Also after reading your reply i was wondering what are the odds anyway that India or Pakistan end up in a serious military action towards eachother, baring in mind that China is supporting Pakistan....So what is India doing to maintain their fragile peace and fragile hold on the region / their own national security and intrests?

It is not a given that China would get directly involved in a Indo-Pakistani conflict, case in point is Kargil of '99. In 1971 also there wasnt any involvement, given that today Pakistnai-Chinese relations are much better. China may choose to get involved lets say as a last resort in order to prevent a complete decimation-type situation, it all depends on the situation, the reason for the conflict the intensity of the same, the Global and UN opinion(s) etc

Because like China india is a big powerhouse that is hungering for resources and with the increasing economic and military power i believe that India is going to follow suit for their own survival correct?

Both China and India growing economic superpowers, China is far wealthier than India, both have billion plus populations, however both countries are very hungry for resources, be it Oil & Energy, Forex & Trade Surpluses, Military hardware etc. So both countries have on-going game plans for securing their needs

 

[rocky.dt]

1. Yes, Pakistan is of strategic importance to the West as well as to China.

2. Pakistanis hate (yes that is the word, hate) WCC (Western Christian Civilization) and the Americans in particular. That is why the West has to ensure a weak compliant Pakistani government and a brain-washed bureaucracy. The military needs to be kept engaged and committed. It can no longer be relied upon to protect the oil royals. That is why these royals themselves have teamed up beside lobbying with India to take on this role.

3. When will it end no one can say? The process begun will take long to come under any control. But when it does end, the West will become a greater foe - such has been its performance/activities.

4. WCC will not get a berth even if there was an invasion by India. No more will Pakistan seek West's assistance. Instead she will rely on the Chinese.