Iran and Related Geopolitical Defense Issues

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fretburner

Banned Member
I think Iran is really hurt by all these sanctions slapped on them over the years and they're trying to push back and see if they can get her neighbors and the west to compromise with them. I just hope they don't do anything crazy and start another war.

I wonder what the mindset it for the citizens of Tehran -- with their government showing of and proclaiming breakthroughs in uranium enrichment which are not at all necessary for civilian nuke power -- "peaceful" use of nukes as they keep saying.
 
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PCShogun

New Member
My2Cents said:
At 20% enrichment the critical mass is around 400kg. Even with reflectors and other tricks the conversion efficiency would be so low, 1 or 2 tons yields at best, that the uranium may not be totally vaporized if used as a weapon. It is more likely to just sit there, get hot, and eventually slump into a non-critical configuration.

It takes more than critical mass to make it a bomb.
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Thanks for the correction. I was thinking that neutron reflectors would increase the chain reaction enough for a "Fizzle" type detonation similar to North Korea's attempt back in 2006. That detonation, though of plutonium not uranium, measured about 2 - 4 KT. Small by today's weapon standards, but still enough to severely screw up your day.

Obviously, I am not a nuclear scientist and was basing the statement on my current understanding of such weapons.
 
gazzzwp

gazzzwp

Member
Announcement of US troop deployment in Israel:

Thousands of US troops deploying to Israel — RT

This comes on top of an announcement of more Iranian exercises scheduled for end of Jan and Feb 2012. Things are certainly getting tense.

Is Israel is the nearest feasible staging point for a possible future attack?

Is this more likely to expose Israel to hostile neighbours and terrorist groups?

Presumably using Saudi territory or Afganistan runs the risk of interfering with Arab relations?

I can only think this is because there is no choice; personally I'm glad to see the two nations working together.
 
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PCShogun

New Member
gazzzwp said:
So it must be for defensive reasons in anticipation of retaliatory strikes?

Nothing on CNN or BBC as yet.
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There were several recent articles stating that Israel and the U.S. were staging joint missile defense excercises called "Austere Challenge 12".
Israeli and US troops gear up for major missile defense drill after Iran maneuvers - The Washington Post

"The Israeli official said thousands of American and Israeli soldiers from different units would take part. " I believe this is what we are seeing.
 
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rip

New Member
PCShogun said:
There were several recent articles stating that Israel and the U.S. were staging joint missile defense excercises called "Austere Challenge 12".
Israeli and US troops gear up for major missile defense drill after Iran maneuvers - The Washington Post

"The Israeli official said thousands of American and Israeli soldiers from different units would take part. " I believe this is what we are seeing.
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At this point I think we have run all of the possibilities that could happen and even some that can’t. The question is, will events be triggered to go to the next level or not? I do not think that this level of tension can be maintained for very long. Ether the Iranians must act or effectively they back down, at least for this round of brakemen’s ship game of power politics. One way or another we will see in the next two weeks, it is in Iran’s court. But I think this time it is different from all of the previous saber rattling they have done before, which was mainly done for internal consumption and was not meant to be taken too seriously by the international community. Since they have said so many belligerent things before I do not believe that the world is taking them as seriously as they should this time. Let us all hope that no one must die to find out.
 
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colay

New Member
If the arab countries live up to commitments to increae oil production and prevent a stampede on oil prices, then the sanctions will take their toll on Iran's people and economy. Instability is what the regime fears most so the longer the sanctions are in place, the worse things will get. Iran can't afford to let this drag on too long.. do they lash out or back down?
 
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NICO

New Member
Iran to Hold New War Games in Strait of Hormuz - Defense News

Seems Iran is already preparing for the next series of exercises. This time it is the Revolutionary Guard Navy? that will conduct them. That was quick. Wonder if US will bring back a carrier inside the Strait or just leave one off the coast of Israel.

http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/content/view/print/444374

Article about a CIA inside Iran? I find it interesting to note the growing divide between different factions inside the govt, religious leaders and RGs. Not very hopefully for the future of Iran, I am afraid.
 
RobWilliams

RobWilliams

Super Moderator
Staff member
NICO said:
Iran to Hold New War Games in Strait of Hormuz - Defense News

Seems Iran is already preparing for the next series of exercises. This time it is the Revolutionary Guard Navy? that will conduct them. That was quick. Wonder if US will bring back a carrier inside the Strait or just leave one off the coast of Israel.
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Thats going to be the clicher for me, that Iran has said they WILL retaliate if the US sends in a carrier. So now you're the US, what do you do? Do you call their bluff or back off and appear to lose face against Iranian threats.

I'm not entirely convinced their 'threat' would be carried out as militarily Iran does not compare, but posting one off the coast of Israel seems to be a compramise. Issue is however that 'appeasement makes the aggressor more aggressive' (to quote former Secretary of State Dean Rusk) and may give Iran the confidence to issue more 'threats' should the oppertunity arise.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
The USN routinely keeps a carrier in the Indian Ocean, often visiting the Persian Gulf. Iran's never 'retaliated' before. What it's now blathering about is what it may do if the US carrier which left the Gulf on December 27th returns.

The USN also routinely keeps a carrier in the Mediterranean, & any carrier off Israel will probably be that one. That isn't any kind of compromise. It's not well-placed to intervene in the Persian Gulf, because of distance, & all the other countries in the way. to get there, it'd have to sail through the Suez Canal, down the Red Sea, & turn left.

If you want a carrier positioned to be able to intervene in the Persian Gulf at short notice, without actually being in it, you should put it somewhere in the Arabian Sea, e.g. loitering off the Gulf of Aden snaffling pirates & rescuing Iranian fishermen.
 
RobWilliams

RobWilliams

Super Moderator
Staff member
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CheeZe

Active Member
The timing of Daring's deployment and the statement at the end of the article about it being a routine, planned deployment... I wonder at that.

Still, good to see that the RN is still playing its part.
 
gazzzwp

gazzzwp

Member
RobWilliams said:
Royal Navy sends its mightiest ship to take on the Iranian show of force in the Gulf - Telegraph

Essentially, the RN has sent HMS Daring to the Gulf on its first mission to replace the current T23 on station and will be packing 48 Sea Vipers and HMS Dauntless will be able to sail on short notice.

I can't help but be excited that the T45s are going, part of me really wants to see exactly what they can do, but we know where that'll lead :rolleyes:
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According to Wiki, Daring has provision for but not fitted with Tomahawk launchers. Does anyone know if that is still the case? Does this mean that her role is mainly defensive to protect carriers by countering threats from hypersonic missiles?
 
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Bonza

Super Moderator
Staff member
gazzzwp said:
According to Wiki, Daring has provision for but not fitted with Tomahawk launchers. Does anyone know if that is still the case? Does this mean that her role is mainly defensive to protect carriers by countering threats from hypersonic missiles?
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As far as I know there's been no word on Tomahawks for the Type 45s, other than the "for, not with" provision (same with Harpoon, I believe). Anti-air warfare remains the primary role, I don't think you'll see any Tomahawks being launched from Daring or her sister ships any time soon.
 
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colay

New Member
gazzzwp said:
According to Wiki, Daring has provision for but not fitted with Tomahawk launchers. Does anyone know if that is still the case? Does this mean that her role is mainly defensive to protect carriers by countering threats from hypersonic missiles?
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What hypersonic missiles?
 
Feanor

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
gazzzwp said:
According to Wiki, Daring has provision for but not fitted with Tomahawk launchers. Does anyone know if that is still the case? Does this mean that her role is mainly defensive to protect carriers by countering threats from hypersonic missiles?
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I think you mean super-sonic.
 
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AegisFC

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
gazzzwp said:
According to Wiki, Daring has provision for but not fitted with Tomahawk launchers. Does anyone know if that is still the case? Does this mean that her role is mainly defensive to protect carriers by countering threats from hypersonic missiles?
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It does not have Mk-41 VLS installed at this time, and Tomahawk can not be fired from the Sylver VLS.
 
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