If Iran strikes first, then they need to go all in. Although swarm attacks might work at the beginning of the conflict and damage a destroyer or 2, that just isn't enough and definitively these tactics won't work more than once or twice. Even that might be optimistic, is it that hard for USN to have an Apache or Cobra helicopter flying around or maybe a Predator/Reaper overhead?1.5 to 2 seconds at that range for the first round to land, less than 10 seconds till the 8th round hits. A Burke class destroyer is big, so even assuming open sights and an elevation only mount (i.e. point the ship and fire) there will probably be more hits than misses head-on, and probably few misses from the side.
Last I heard the Iranian boats came out to harass US vessels several times a month, fake attack runs and all that, trying to get the US ships to fire on them and generate an incident for the Press and the international courts. It may be pretty hard to tell if it is just more harassment or an attack being launched, unless approaching all the vessels at the same time tips someone off, and even then the Navy will probably hesitate. The real problem for the Iranians will be coordinating all the attacks, they have only a couple minutes before it is open season on them by any survivors. :hul
Yes, even combined with land based artillery, but I am sure this threat is very well understood by USN. The seizure of the islands as suggested earlier would seem the ideal way of turning a threat back on to the Iranians.Guys just a idea, the strait of hormus is what? 40mile wide?
Would that not be a ideal setting for land based anti ship missiles?
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It is interesting to do a comparison between Qushm and Okinawa, the size, geography, and geology are fairly similar. If the Iranians have constructed similar underground defenses, invading it would be very bloody.Yes, even combined with land based artillery, but I am sure this threat is very well understood by USN. The seizure of the islands as suggested earlier would seem the ideal way of turning a threat back on to the Iranians.
Russia would love nothing more (though they won't say so publicly) then for the US to unilaterally (or with a flimsy coalition of East European NATO) get into a war with Iran. It would drive another wedge between the Europeans and the US, it would also mean the US will rely on Russian support from Central Asia, and will be too occupied to deal with Russian geo-political expansion in the FSU and elsewhere.Could it be possible that Russia perceives it will benefit from the conflict? China obviously does not since it is dependant on Middle Eastern oil. For Russia this is a different story.
Looking at the state media website today and measuring the sentiment it looks to me if they want this to happen. A double edged bonus; Russian oil selling at a premium and Nato forces bogged down yet again.
Well in regards to their Kilo Class sub(s) its save to say that the USN has their eye fixed on any important and potential danger that Iran might bring in.First I must say that this forum is what I have searched after for a long time, everyone here seems to share my interest in the subject which is outstanding.
I agree with others that Iran must understand that they can not hope to win an extended conflict with the US. What I am concerned for is an Iranian attempt to "bloody our nose" with the belief that it would weaken our resolve to stay the course.
With the Perry class FFG without its MK13 launcher, those ships would have to rely soley on the CIWS for defense against anti ship missles. I do not think it would be out of the question for a first strike by Iran to be successfull against a lone Perry frigate if given an oppurtunity. The memory of the Stark listing from missle damage returns to my mind.
How well can we track their efforts to mine the area? I am sure our ability to track that is much better now but again, the image of the Sammual B Roberts nearly tore in half comes to mind. The danger is real, I take nothing from the quality of our sailors and ships but do fear the losing of a ship if all stars were aligned.
Lastly,
The area is shallow, would it not be possible for an Irainan Kilo class diesel/electric sub to get a lucky shot in with their quiet nature and difficult sonar conditions? I am sure that the USN would be able to clean house after the conflict started but the inital blow is what concerns me. As a police officer and not a naval officer I may see things differently but believe in this instance we both have to react to a threat. That reaction time is what kills most police officers and is what could be dangerous to our ships here. Am I off base?
Side question: Would you know the state of Iran's airforces?Russia would love nothing more (though they won't say so publicly) then for the US to unilaterally (or with a flimsy coalition of East European NATO) get into a war with Iran. It would drive another wedge between the Europeans and the US, it would also mean the US will rely on Russian support from Central Asia, and will be too occupied to deal with Russian geo-political expansion in the FSU and elsewhere.
On a side note, Iran doesn't have the money for a couple hundred Sukhois, or J-10s. Look at the MKI program. It's over 10 billion USD, the timeframe is ~15-20 years for all deliveries, and it's 272 airframes. They could have purchased 12-36 Su-30MK2s in the 2000-2009 timeframe (before the sanctions kicked in). But they seem intent on modifying F-5s rather then buy abroad.
Well, I think this is Iran's problem going forward. With sanctions not being removed anytime soon and Russia and China not seemingly ready to defy UN sanctions, well, there really isn't anybody that has a 200 jet fighters to give away. As Feanor noted, even if they signed a contract today, it would be years to deliver, train pilots and everything you need to go to war....plus it would be very expensive, I wouldn't think Russia would take credit...Side question: Would you know the state of Iran's airforces?
Do they have any significant assets at all? (Or are those 2 tornado's that have been shown on the news the best they got?)
And in regards to the sanctions does Iran produce own planes? and could they buy from nations who do not have signed the sanctions?
As i am sure there will be always a few nations that would play dirty.
I don't think it will be a push over, but Okinawa sounds a bit of an extreme comparison! The beauty for the US of taking Qushm is it limits ground forces exposure and yet provides a constant threat and sore to Iran....not sure what it does for property prices in Dubai ;-)It is interesting to do a comparison between Qushm and Okinawa, the size, geography, and geology are fairly similar. If the Iranians have constructed similar underground defenses, invading it would be very bloody.
China might be a better bet, if lets say USA delivers 60 F16s to Taiwan, I could see China selling some JF17 or maybe a few J10As in response but again it would require some time before you are able to use them....
I think that would hurt China's economy as well that's why IMO selling JF17s or a few J10As to Iran for US selling F16s to Taiwan would be a nice quid pro quo....as far as I know maybe US/China have agreed on it in secret talks, you never know.Surely a better way for China to punish the US in such a situation would be to just stop buying US bonds..?
I suspect it's the greatest worry China has, what does it do about US government debt, if it stops buying the world goes into global mettle down... but when do you say enough is enough.I think that would hurt China's economy as well that's why IMO selling JF17s or a few J10As to Iran for US selling F16s to Taiwan would be a nice quid pro quo....as far as I know maybe US/China have agreed on it in secret talks, you never know.
Yeah,my bad, too much in a hurry, says 16 MIG29 and Revolutionary Guard 13 Su25.Also a mix of F6/F7 Chinese fighters, haven't heard much about them recently...Iran also has a handful of MiG-29As, and possibly some Su-25s, that defected from Iraq.