Indonesian Aero News

[Sandhi Yudha]

There is actually nothing new, no new updates about Indonesia's defence acquisition programs in this 'news article'.

And this part
|"Indonesia is also behind on payments for a joint program with South Korea. The countries agreed to co-fund the KF-21 Boramae fighter jet program.

When asked for an update, Sangshin Park, a regional manager for KF-21 manufacturer Korea Aerospace Industries, told Defense News: “We also don’t know what’s going to happen, and we’re still waiting.”"|
was also very predictable.

Next Indonesian president may be boon to military buildup, expert says

It appears Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto could become Indonesia's next president.

www.defensenews.com

 

[Ananda]

I still have hope that fiscal reality will put the lid on this F-15ID plan. Operating both Rafale and this F-15ID, simply too costly for budget trend. Discipline on fiscal usually in the end can force realism within administration.

This is why this term credit line being reduce from USD 34 bio back to more manageable USD 25 bio. This as MoF still keep the overall debt ratio around 30%, even tough some in ASEAN already reaching 60% and develop countries averaging 60-80%.

However with potentially current Finance Minister will not joining Prabowo's administration (even tough being portrait as continuation of current Jokowi's administration), personally I do have worries on Fiscal policy's discipline. Hopefully I'm wrong as fiscal discipline is corner stone for market confidence in Indonesian economics future so far.

The article also not mention upgrade program for those F-16C/D to V standard. I still hoping they ditch F-15ID for more F-16V (whether new build or retrofit ones), but I know it is increasingly slim chances. Still who knows the fiscal realism will force them to that.

3 Rafale plus 4 F-16 squadrons orbat is operationally more manageable, then 3 Rafale, 2 F-16 and 2 F-15 ones as current plan. Well that's my amateur enthusiasts hope anyway.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Agree, it would be much more manageable if end this decade TNI-AU has an orbat of 3 Rafale squadrons, 2 F-16 squadrons, 1 Su-27/30 and one T-50 squadron. And after 2030 the Sukhois can be replaced by more Rafales, and more FA-/T-50 should be added to expand the amount of squadrons to cover whole Indonesia.
Even countries which spend more on defence like Kuwait (F-18 and EF2000), Singapore (F-15, F-16 and F-35) and UAE (F-16, Mirage 2000-9 and Rafale) have not more than three different kinds of jetfighters.

 

[Ananda]

more FA-/T-50 should be added to expand the amount of squadrons to cover whole Indonesia.

Single Seat FA-50 that now KAI confirm going to develop, for me is going to be appropriate LCA. Much Indonesian fan boys enthusiasts (this publics) grappling around with F-15, without thinking much if that's going to be affordable operation wise with Indonesian AF operational budget trend growth.

Well, problem is 4 even 6 sq of LCA is much less flashy compare to 2 sq of F-15EX/ID for much of public display purpose. After all for some Political factions even to some Publics, it is more attractive images, thus gaining more political score.

That's problem with Indonesian defense planning, public image thus political scores, sometimes can still outweighs defense rationality. So usually fiscal realism that sometimes can reign on political scores ambitions.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Here a nice video from a C-130J-30 Container Delivery System exercise. One of the C-130Js has the number A-1339....
Latihan Container Delivery System (CDS) Menggunakan Pesawat C-130J Super Hercules - YouTube

...but in this video below, the 4th C-130J-30 delivered has the number A-1344. How is this possible, did Kompas made a mistake and is this actually the 5th? I can't believe that TNI-AU skipped a number.
Alutsista Baru TNI AU! Pesawat Super Hercules C-130J ke-4 Tiba di Tanah Air (youtube.com)

Btw, does this belong to TNI-AU?
Matra Udara Radar Pasive, Kemhan R.I (youtube.com)

 

[Ananda]

At this moment, it is mostly rumours from some 'defense insiders' that talk the upgrade for V standard, actually not really V standard. As the upgrade will be done with cooperation with Turkiye (TAI).

It will be done involving DI at their facility. if the rumours is true, then it is actually more to Turkiye OZGUR upgrade program. As this enthusiasts (id khanasgor) put in his X accout, on illustration of the upgrade.

Well, if this happening rumours talk not only due to cost, but also due to Turkiye industry (especially Aselsan) wilingness to share some work and code with Indonesian LEN. Considering how this rumours getting stronger among those local defense insiders, At this moment I choose to put it here, as potential plausible. Afterall Indonesian and Turkiye coop is getting stronger on signs that come out from either Indonesian MinDef and MIC.

Add:
Off course getting F-16 upgrade using Turkiye equipment (hardware and software) will also need permission from US. That's the plausibility will be debatable. Which is why the rumours getting interesting.

There's too many rumours that consider possible then become improbable, and vice versa. That's the drama of Indonesian bureaucracy.

 

[Ananda]

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PT. LEN sign more co-op with Thales, with emphasis on aero defense data connectivity and networking. Thus in my opinion this is part of overall LEN and Thales co-op before in Radar and ISTAR hardware production partnership. It is understandable that with mostly Thales hard assets co-op, will then follow up with Thales soft assets co-op.

Despite talks on Turkiye taking more pies from Indonesia Defense development, seems until now Frenchie that getting more slices. Let's see if there are also follow up on this kind of agreement between LEN and ASELSAN. If not, then Frenchie will take most of the deals.

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1780922171587727384

Bit chuckling when I read this chats on Indonesian enthusiasts sites. Seems they are finally realizing fiscal reality. Something that I already put in here after analyzing fiscal capabilities and talking with Finance people. Having both Rafale and F-15ID is simply too costly on current budget trend.

That 24 F-15ID at DSCA stated costs, can be use for another 4PPA, 4 Arrowhead 140 and 4 Scorpene. That's just example on why adding F-15ID is going to cost other TNI branches, even TNI-AU plan. With F15ID budget TNI-AU can still ask for AEW asset while Navy and Army still can get more Frigate Subs, and Army Mobilities assets.

There's also situations on exchange rate that currently happening in market. It is already happening in decades that Asian products are relatively more affordable then US ones. However now something else that continues also in trend. Euro products become more economical to maintain and procured then US ones. The feds finally successfully making US exports relatively more expensive then anyone else.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

$13,9 billion is indeed ridiculous expensive for just 36 F-15s, let alone if the amount is only 24. Some people will say that it is a complete package, but come on, almost 14 billion? That is enough for maybe 150 years of spareparts, training and support equipment :-D

If Indonesia had to order from the US, then Indonesia should order 737 AEW&C, P-8, AGM-84, AGM-158 or the CH-47, which TNI-AD/-AU really needs. Or more AH-64Es and AIM-120C-7 for the NASAMS and F-16s. Or even more F-16s.

But as we said before, the budget can also be used for current equipment or equipment which are under construction, to prevent that we will get downgraded/FFBNW stuff.

 

[Ananda]

If we trace back few years back, the program for F-15EX basically come back to two situation:

1. US did not approve Indonesia procurement submission for F-35, while Indonesia did not want to take the alternative of F-16V or F-18E/F.
2. Indonesia also ask US on some kind of alternative when US 'persuade' Indonesia that procuring SU-35 will create conflict with their policy under CAATSA.

So it is clear political dynamic between Jakarta and Washington at play in here. Question is whether 'deterence' factor can be more achieve by building network of Air defense, ISTAR assets including AEW planes or being spend on more expensive Fighters.

The AF planners seems already have answer, when they propose F-16V support by network for Air defense, Data connectivity and ground and Aerial base ISTAR assets. That's going to be unaffordable to build (under current budget trend) with F-15EX, but still can be afforded by F-16V (upgrade or new build). The idea of 'Heavy Fighters ' seems ingrained in some corners of MinDef and AF planners. Base on idea of Heavy Fighters can bring more missiles and longer range operation.

Still they have to decide which is better on using that budget on building more Missiles inventories, and Fighters supported by Integrated ISTAR network and Ground Based Air Defense grids. Something that War in Ukraine or conflict in ME already shown. Rafale and F-16V range also can be support by new work of Aerial Tankers. I believe looking at their published studies, the AF planners already see that.

Thus hopefully realism on budget can dampen political urges on more flashing expensive Fighters.