Indonesia: 'green water navy'

Ananda

The Bunker Group

One of local defense enthusiasts provide pictures of SRV Mother Ship. Previously I'm this thread few months ago already been put media links on SRV contract with its UK builder. This just confirm the mother ship will be build by local shipyard.

This is all part of future submarine seminar in Jakarta. Basically it is talk on potential contract for next submarine batch order in 2025-29 term. This is where the Frenchie Salesman got his 'insiders' info on Li-Ion only order for next batch.

However even his channel vlog also shown TKMS (which champion AIP and not Li-Ion) submarine as contender. Thus raise possibilities that his ranting on Li-Ion only order aim to his main rival, the TKMS sales team.

 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

One of local defense enthusiasts provide pictures of SRV Mother Ship. Previously I'm this thread few months ago already been put media links on SRV contract with its UK builder. This just confirm the mother ship will be build by local shipyard.

This is all part of future submarine seminar in Jakarta. Basically it is talk on potential contract for next submarine batch order in 2025-29 term. This is where the Frenchie Salesman got his 'insiders' info on Li-Ion only order for next batch.

However even his channel vlog also shown TKMS (which champion AIP and not Li-Ion) submarine as contender. Thus raise possibilities that his ranting on Li-Ion only order aim to his main rival, the TKMS sales team.

It is actually quite surprising that a local shipyard will be able to construct such a highly specialized vessel. So, i expect this contract is including full ToT, tools, equipment and training for the local shipyard. Am i right?


Seems Damen still want to enter the Market. Perhaps they are hoping from previous Fincantieri success on PPA, which being open with PPA visit. I can say this is just another rutin diplomatic visits. However the timing bit suspicious after Indonesian Navy shown their interest with AAW Destroyer/Large Frigates.
I don't think it is suspicious that the Zr.Ms Tromp is visiting Indonesia, it is a combined tour/operation of the ship: a voyage to the Pacific and protecting civilian ships in the Red Sea. Last month it visited Mumbai and it started its voyage on 9 March from Den Helder. But this voyage was actually already announced in January.

But yes, a visit of a naval ship is also a little bit to promote the defence/naval industry of the country...
 
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deadlast

Member
It is actually quite surprising that a local shipyard will be able to construct such a highly specialized vessel. So, i expect this contract is including full ToT, tools, equipment and training for the local shipyard. Am i right?
Either that (let's hope that is the case), or it follows what Palindo does with their BHO-105 project, build the vessel here then send it to Germany for final outfitting.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
yes, a visit of a naval ship is also a little bit to promote the defence/naval industry of the country...
Well the chances of Damen got another order from Indonesia is slim anyway, and I suspect getting much slimmer after this guy able to influence others on creating government. He might not be PM, but seems he become political master mind.


Honestly I really believe his anti Islam attitude have base on his Indos family history. Off course he's populist, but being right wing populist (or any side populist) ussualy base on something that's personal.

I wonder if Garuda then going to relocate their Euro Hub from Schiphol. Considering German and French now having better relationship with Indonesia, perhaps Frankfurt or Paris can be the choice. I heard before COVID they are planning 2nd Euro destinations after they close London route. Perhaps now can be both of them ? I know throwing away historical hub due to emotional politics is not good for business. However that guy really hates Indonesia.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group


Naval Group and Xavier X accounts shown TNI-AL Chief visit NG facility. Especially facility for their FDI Frigates. No wonder their salesman lately talk trash on PAL-Babcock Arrowhead Frigates.

Talking on the Project will be 8+ years in making instead 5 years +. Well the PAL-Babcock will have delay due to Covid and Design adjustments. However after signing the contract in Sep 21, it's too early stating the Project will have 3 years more delay.

Clearly that Salesman try to use his 'status' as defense insiders to influence public perception or other projects. Especially those projects from competitors. Before DSME submarine, now Babcock Frigates. Just chuckling that local media still call him defense expert/analyst.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Fincantieri finally indicating officialy what Submarine they are offering to TNI-AL. Basically from this seminar the submarine supplier being inform that outside Scorpene deal between NG-PAL, there will be another program.

Personally I already expect this as Prabowo's himself in last year seminar already shown presentation of 2 seperate program. One Tactical Submarine and other Strategic Submarine. The Strategic ones seems related to NG-PAL tied up, while the question will be for this Tactical Submarine.

Big potential this Tactical ones will be build outside Indonesia, as PAL Submarine facility will be used with their Scorpene program.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

Fincantieri finally indicating officialy what Submarine they are offering to TNI-AL. Basically from this seminar the submarine supplier being inform that outside Scorpene deal between NG-PAL, there will be another program.

Personally I already expect this as Prabowo's himself in last year seminar already shown presentation of 2 seperate program. One Tactical Submarine and other Strategic Submarine. The Strategic ones seems related to NG-PAL tied up, while the question will be for this Tactical Submarine.

Big potential this Tactical ones will be build outside Indonesia, as PAL Submarine facility will be used with their Scorpene program.
It is actually remarkable that Fincantieri/Italy offers the U212 class, as far as i know they do not want to offer the Type 212 to non-Western/non-NATO counties, but only the Type 214. As an export-only design, the Type 214 lacks some of the capabilities of the Type 212. Among these lesser capabilities is the use of magnetic steel for the hull. The Type 212 parent uses non-magnetic steel, which significantly reduces its magnetic signature, and thus detection underwater.

But i also don't understand the requirement for a larger strategic submarine class (Scorpène Class) and a smaller tactical one (Type 214). The Type 214 is not much smaller and cheaper than the Scorpène Class. If the Indonesian government wants to save money by buying a smaller, cheaper and less advanced submarines, then they should continue with a second batch of Type 209/1400.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
If the Indonesian government wants to save money by buying a smaller, cheaper and less advanced submarines, then they should continue with a second batch of Type 209/1400.
Perhaps that's in the end that still what happens. The talk of type 214 or now 212NFS is more to what TKMS and Fincantieri offer, not necessarily what actually can be afforded. Local defense enthusiasts and some defense insiders (salesmen), seems hoping and betting that since Prabowo will be the next President, he will increase substantially defense budget.

However being Defense minister will be different being President. Besides we can talk about deteriorating Geopolitics, but same time fiscal discipline to maintain economics credibility in market still take precedence.

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This table being circulate for some time by online enthusiasts. Rumours come from TNI-AL studies on target fleet by 2040. Big target if this's really their target postures, but looking as this is stretches for at least 1.5 decade, for 'sales teams' means there're room for potential batches throughout that period.

As for Submarines, even the target still 12, for this decade if they can get 8 (including 2 Scorpene building), it is already achievement. Prabowo's presentation call for 7 Tactical Submarine, and I suspect already include present 4. So by allocations of target, there are potential 3 Submarines on next term batch. I just chuckling on the reaction on local enthusiasts and those Euro Salesmen, if in the end they activate that 2nd batch 209-1400.

Cause in the end that Tactical term that they use, I suspect more to indicating this is for litoral Submarines. Moreover, that's what being so far allocated on budget trails. Well that's my suspicion.
 

Meriv90

Active Member
The thing is that the U212 is amazing for baltic/Med and other low seas. Im really not seeing it working well for Indonesia, unless for blocking specifically Malacca straight and other key points.

IMHO if Fincantieri wants to compete on the international stage with the subs we should try to cooperate with Damen and Saab to create a third "pole" to compete vs TKMS and Naval group that monopolize the market.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Western Indonesian sea especially Java Sea, Malaca Strait and sea lines directly to SCS basically litoral shallow sea. Just like Baltic sea it is basically land area during last ice age.

Not saying Fincantieri offer of U212 will be taken, but just shown litoral Submarines does have place for Indonesian submarine environment.

Map_of_Sunda_and_Sahul.png
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

Naval News basically reporting what being discussed during International Submarine seminar in Jakarta.
  1. PAL already prepared more investment to augment existing Submarine Manufacturing facilities. Including Submarine sea lift to launch them.
  2. French seems already give green light for latest version of Exocet SM39 and UUV to equip Scorpene Evolved being manufactured in PAL Surabaya.
  3. Allthough the talk of AIP even nuclear being talk as propulsion of choice for Indonesian next Submarine asside Li-Ion Battery, by TNI-AL Chief, however the MinDef official reiterated the preference for Li-Ion as the program with PAL already for that direction.
  4. The same official talk for additional 4 Submarine being order 2 each for each batch, on next term and further on in next decade. This seems being put as plan to get into 12 Submarine.
  5. This 4 Submarine program that seems being talk by MinDef to attract TKMS and Fincantieri to get involved.
  6. The talk for India Mazagon shipyard interest on participating with PAL-NG Scorpene Evolved program. As Mazagon is the Indian Shipyard that build Indian Scorpene, I suspect it is part of NG effort to attract India involvement on Li-Ion program.
The way I see it, NG is in better possition to get next order of that 4 Submarine. However whether MinDef already dead set with Li-Ion, I suspect remain to be seen. Which why they also invite TKMS and Fincantieri that's so far has no Li-Ion option in their offering. Either way, it is aim for next stage program toward end of this decade and next.

So where the 8 Submarine coming from?

Interesting that they talk for further 4 Submarine to get into 12 (or target number). Means in my opinion they already set for program on how to get 8 Submarine. Now existing sub is 4 (3 if we exclude Tjakra which being talk as more to Traning Sub in future). Thus asside 2 Scorpene which already in contract, are they are in fact already have set plan for additional 2-3 Submarine ?

So where this come from ? Are they coming from DSME 2nd Batch contract or from this Interim Submarine program (that TNI-AL Chief talk in the seminar). As mention before Indonesia being talk shown interest with 2 Brazilian 209-1400 Tupi class Indonesia in talks with Brazil for potential acquisition of used Tupi-class submarines.
Also rumours circulate on talks in getting 2-3 209-1400 either from South Africa, or Turkey or even ROK Jang Bogo (if DSME deal being drop).

Either way I suspect they (Indonesian MinDef) seems already have plan in set on getting that 8 Submarine. Personally I always follow money trail. So far base on finance people talk, the allocations for 2nd Batch already set in budget. Getting new budget is much harder, thus either way the money that available (outside Scorpene) is that USD 1.2+ bio for 2nd batch DSME 1400. So whether interim or second batch more likely signs shown more 209-1400 as practicall choices.

So either 3 current DSME 1st batch and 3 2nd batch plus 2 209-1400 Interim Sub or 3 current DSME 1st batch and 5 Interim 2nd hand 209-1400. All Interim as being said by Naval Chief to wait for Scorpene. My speculation base more to the money available, indicating they can only getting that type.

Honestly if they can get 6 209-1400 (whether from DSME or other sources) plus 6 Scorpene Evolved by 2040, it is already potent Submarine forces. 209-1400 for litoral waters and Scorpene Evolved for Blue Water (or near Blue Water) operation. Politically there's one advantage I believe on getting there, as Prabowo's will continue Jokowi's administration. Thus more or less there are more political continuity compare to SBY's to Jokowi's administration before. Still with Indonesia, I still reserve someone or some factions potentially messing up long term plan again.
 
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koxinga

Well-Known Member
There is nothing to stop NG from offering the CM-2000 variant of the Scorpene to meet the littoral requirement as well, nor is it impossible for NG to make it LiB (although the cost will be higher)
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Yes there're several options for Litoral submarine asside 209-1400. However all back to money trail. As seems they're going to try fullfil that 8 submarine with existing budget. Thus means only budget fit for 209-1400 and Scorpene, or Budget that more or less already allocate.

It's just back to where those 209-1400 will be source from. The next allocation for Submarine will be part of that 4 additional ones, on next term and next decade. I just don't see they can get more. Off course the calculation can be different if they drop F-15EX.

The way I interpreted the info on that forum, of that 12 Submarine, the talk on what 'future' Indonesian submarine specs (as article put) more for the 2 Scorpene Evolved and the additional 4 in future batches. The other 6 come from existing submarine plus whatever they can get with limitations of DSME Batch 2 budget which being allocate already.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Well the chances of Damen got another order from Indonesia is slim anyway, and I suspect getting much slimmer after this guy able to influence others on creating government. He might not be PM, but seems he become political master mind.


Honestly I really believe his anti Islam attitude have base on his Indos family history. Off course he's populist, but being right wing populist (or any side populist) ussualy base on something that's personal.

I wonder if Garuda then going to relocate their Euro Hub from Schiphol. Considering German and French now having better relationship with Indonesia, perhaps Frankfurt or Paris can be the choice. I heard before COVID they are planning 2nd Euro destinations after they close London route. Perhaps now can be both of them ? I know throwing away historical hub due to emotional politics is not good for business. However that guy really hates Indonesia.
Sadly i am not able to read this politico article on my hp. I understand that Geert Wilders dislikes islam, and that he wants to keep the Netherlands Dutch, but his negative feelings towards the islam is just blind hatred. But does this really means that he forced the whole Dutch defence industry to not export anything anymore to Indonesia? It is also unlikely that Garuda Indonesia will move away from Schiphol because of one politician. Schiphol is the only European destination, not only because of historic reasons, but also because of the larger amount of passengers, compared to other European cities. That's why Garuda has terminated all flights to LGW, FRA and CDG, those destinations added to Garuda's losses a lot.

Here we have a video of viceadmiraal René Tas, commander of the Koninklijke Marine, visiting the Korps Marinir last week on 16 Mei.

Perhaps that's in the end that still what happens. The talk of type 214 or now 212NFS is more to what TKMS and Fincantieri offer, not necessarily what actually can be afforded. Local defense enthusiasts and some defense insiders (salesmen), seems hoping and betting that since Prabowo will be the next President, he will increase substantially defense budget.

However being Defense minister will be different being President. Besides we can talk about deteriorating Geopolitics, but same time fiscal discipline to maintain economics credibility in market still take precedence.

View attachment 51343

This table being circulate for some time by online enthusiasts. Rumours come from TNI-AL studies on target fleet by 2040. Big target if this's really their target postures, but looking as this is stretches for at least 1.5 decade, for 'sales teams' means there're room for potential batches throughout that period.

As for Submarines, even the target still 12, for this decade if they can get 8 (including 2 Scorpene building), it is already achievement. Prabowo's presentation call for 7 Tactical Submarine, and I suspect already include present 4. So by allocations of target, there are potential 3 Submarines on next term batch. I just chuckling on the reaction on local enthusiasts and those Euro Salesmen, if in the end they activate that 2nd batch 209-1400.

Cause in the end that Tactical term that they use, I suspect more to indicating this is for litoral Submarines. Moreover, that's what being so far allocated on budget trails. Well that's my suspicion.
"This table being circulate for some time by online enthusiasts. Rumours come from TNI-AL studies"
I saw this table before, but it my opinion it is totally unrealistic and indeed it looks like it is made by online enthousiasts/fanboys. Do we even need so much from everything? There will be also not much funds left over for maintenance and operations.


Yes there're several options for Litoral submarine asside 209-1400. However all back to money trail. As seems they're going to try fullfil that 8 submarine with existing budget. Thus means only budget fit for 209-1400 and Scorpene, or Budget that more or less already allocate.

It's just back to where those 209-1400 will be source from. The next allocation for Submarine will be part of that 4 additional ones, on next term and next decade. I just don't see they can get more. Off course the calculation can be different if they drop F-15EX.

The way I interpreted the info on that forum, of that 12 Submarine, the talk on what 'future' Indonesian submarine specs (as article put) more for the 2 Scorpene Evolved and the additional 4 in future batches. The other 6 come from existing submarine plus whatever they can get with limitations of DSME Batch 2 budget which being allocate already.
The budget for the three DSME Type 209/1400 submarines is $1,02 billion, right?
Compared to the pricetag of $2,16 for just two Scorpènes, this is an amazing deal.

I wonder if the MESMA AIP version of the Scorpène is cheaper than the Lithium-Ion Battery version.
 
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