There is no doubt about that, but I think the establishment view in Australia is to avoid being "flanked" in Polynesia by China.
I confess to have little knowledge of Australian policy towards the South Pacific nations over the decade. But it appears that policy is more like a donor/donee type relationship and there is a perceived inbalance, where because Australia is the biggest donor there, expects (even if it is unintended) to be treated as the elder brother/senior country. I also think COVID-19 opened up an opportunity for China there because their economies would have been significantly battered and Australia has been somewhat slow in that response to the region. I am happy to be corrected and educated if I am wrong.
Indo Pacific strategy
- Thread starter gonefishing
- Start date
Not vaccine aid. My statement says "their economies would have been significantly battered " (I am saying post COVID19 economic recovery/aid)
Furthermore, most economists are predicting the global economy to be moving towards recession in late 2022/early 2023. Small nations are bearing the brunt of this (look no further than Sri Lanka).
The weaker economies of South Pacific would then be more open (read: vulnerable) to someone bearing gifts.
Over two thirds of economists think a recession will hit the U.S. next year
A new survey suggests it will be hard for the Federal Reserve to streer the U.S. economy out of a recession.
Why a recession by end-2023 should be the base case
Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, discuss how the US economy is the furthest away from the Fed’s targets in forty years.
www.dbresearch.com
Economically, China will fare no better especially with their dynamic zero COVID strategy, but they can still bring plenty of ammunition (money) to the aid table and exploit vulnerable countries. Near term, I suspect China is just taking advantage of the situation since even the US are considering to reduce Trump era tariffs just to deal with inflation.
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Thanks for the clarification @koxinga. I misinterpreted what you said. I thought you meant the PI economies would have been battered because of Covid 19 (yes they were) and Australia was somewhat slow in "that" (meaning Covid) response. Apologies for that.Not vaccine aid. My statement says "their economies would have been significantly battered " (I am saying post COVID19 economic recovery/aid)
Furthermore, most economists are predicting the global economy to be moving towards recession in late 2022/early 2023. Small nations are bearing the brunt of this (look no further than Sri Lanka).
The weaker economies of South Pacific would then be more open to someone bearing gifts.
Over two thirds of economists think a recession will hit the U.S. next year
A new survey suggests it will be hard for the Federal Reserve to streer the U.S. economy out of a recession.fortune.com
Why a recession by end-2023 should be the base case
Peter Hooper, Global Head of Economic Research, and Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US Economist, discuss how the US economy is the furthest away from the Fed’s targets in forty years.www.dbresearch.com
@koxinga Within the Pacific Islands Forum, of which both Australia & New Zealand are members, the Australian approach and NZ approach will be subtlety different because of our own differences. Whilst in many policy areas we will have agreement it's how we approach the policies and dealing with the island nations that can be different. NZ tends to use it's indigenous Maori culture when dealing with the Pacific Islands and because us Maori are Polynesians we have that affinity with the rest of the Island nations.
Auckland is the largest Polynesian city in the world. We just seem to have a better understanding of doing things the Island way than our Australian cousins do, and there is definitely and Island way of doing things whether you are Polynesian, Melanesian, or Micronesian. It's very much about relationships and consensus and decisions that maybe made in Wellington or Canberra in a day or two can take time in the Islands because it's not up to one or two people or even a simple majority. It has to be debated and a consensus reached at meetings amongst leaders and Chiefs. This is where relationships are very important because they may go back generations.
Auckland is the largest Polynesian city in the world. We just seem to have a better understanding of doing things the Island way than our Australian cousins do, and there is definitely and Island way of doing things whether you are Polynesian, Melanesian, or Micronesian. It's very much about relationships and consensus and decisions that maybe made in Wellington or Canberra in a day or two can take time in the Islands because it's not up to one or two people or even a simple majority. It has to be debated and a consensus reached at meetings amongst leaders and Chiefs. This is where relationships are very important because they may go back generations.
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Apologies to ask such a question but within the islanders; in general is there a distinct difference between how the Polynesians, Melanesians and Micronesians do things; given the various differences and they fact that they're spread out over a such large area.
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I haven't had anything to do with Micronesians but have had dealings with Fijians who are Melanesian. Their culture is similar to Polynesian culture as it should be because the Polynesians are descended from Melanesian women and indigenous Taiwanese men.
About 3,000 years ago indigenous Taiwanese men left Southern Taiwan and headed out into the Pacific heading south. Along the way they picked up Melanesian women and as time passed the the Polynesian culture grew. DNA has traced Maori back to a couple of villages in the Southern Taiwanese mountains.
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Having spent some time with Melanesians, they are not as homogeneous as it might appear from the outside; somebody from Mt Hagen will have a different approach to somebody from Manus, Buka, Malaita or Efate. There will be many similarities but it would be silly, in fact dangerous, to assume their reaction to particular situation or issues would be identical.
I remember Fijian and PNG SNCOs having a fight in the Sergeants Mess at the Hobsonville Air Base in Auckland one Friday night after a big session on the fire water. Practically wrecked the joint they did. We were parked up in the Corporals Club watching with much merriment, with half the members of the Sergeants Mess who had beaten a hasty retreat - high speed tactical withdrawal was how one Warrant Officer put it.
The big difference between Melanesian and Polynesian culture is (for want of a better word ) “Tribal”
Polynesia is, with minor language and familial differences, a mono culture.
I grew up on a coral atoll 100nms east of New Ireland/PNG, the locals were Polynesian. We were visited in turn by peoples from Samoa and Tahiti and apart from some consonant differences eg Wahine, Fahine, Tahine all meaning woman, they were able to converse without problems. They understood each other’s “totem” system so yes, monoculture.
On the other hand, Melanesians have hundreds of different languages, very different cultures and have different physical features.
In PNG, “Wontok” or “one talk” is supreme and trumps all other associations even at the risk of committing crime, your wontok obligation is paramount
Both cultures have to be treated individually, especially at leadership level.
And throw in Micronesia of which I have no experience but it’s closer to Polynesia than Melanesia…..
All this makes dealing with an international assembly such as the Pacific Islands Forum a minefield for the unprepared be it polititian or diplomat.
Let’s not mention corruption to complicate things further!
Polynesia is, with minor language and familial differences, a mono culture.
I grew up on a coral atoll 100nms east of New Ireland/PNG, the locals were Polynesian. We were visited in turn by peoples from Samoa and Tahiti and apart from some consonant differences eg Wahine, Fahine, Tahine all meaning woman, they were able to converse without problems. They understood each other’s “totem” system so yes, monoculture.
On the other hand, Melanesians have hundreds of different languages, very different cultures and have different physical features.
In PNG, “Wontok” or “one talk” is supreme and trumps all other associations even at the risk of committing crime, your wontok obligation is paramount
Both cultures have to be treated individually, especially at leadership level.
And throw in Micronesia of which I have no experience but it’s closer to Polynesia than Melanesia…..
All this makes dealing with an international assembly such as the Pacific Islands Forum a minefield for the unprepared be it polititian or diplomat.
Let’s not mention corruption to complicate things further!
Sri Lanka has basically imploded.
www.bloomberg.com
The Quad has been talking about helping but I don't see anything moving.
colombogazette.com
Sri Lanka Latest: President to Resign July 13, Speaker Says
Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa will resign on Wednesday after protesters swarmed his residence and offices, signaling a possible turning point for the bankrupt country.
www.bloomberg.com
The Quad has been talking about helping but I don't see anything moving.
Quad urged to take more proactive role to address Sri Lanka crisis
The US' influential Senate Foreign Relations Committee has urged the Quad nations to take a "more proactive role” in addressing Sri Lanka's political and economic crisis, while praising India's role in providing humanitarian assistance to the government in the island nation to avoid a meltdown. Q
colombogazette.com
Yes, the Rajapaksa clan has ruined it by a combination of looting for personal gain, favouring supporters regardless of cost to the country, some understandable but ultimately wrong decisions on foreign loans & sheer bloody incompetence.
They've been assisted by other politicians, but as far as I can see it's mostly down to them.
What will be of concern is what replaces the leadership and government of Sri Lanka now. The Indian's will undoubtedly interfere as will the CCP/PRC.
The Luftwaffe is preparing for exercise "Rapid Pacific". The lack of quality control at Martin-Baker in the UK that came up yesterday might still throw a wrench into the works though.
Rapid Pacific will take place on August 15th and move a group of 6 Eurofighter, 4 A400M and 3 A330 MRTT from Germany to Singapore in 24 hours with a single layover (and pilot change) in Abu Dhabi.
The flight entails a planned nine air-to-air refuelings enroute, and a minimum 6-week stay for 250 soldiers based out of Singapore until early October. There have been some hints that they plan to pre-shuttle crews to Abu Dhabi separately for the pilot change there instead of e.g. bringing them on one of the MRTTs or A400M; i.e. unlike the similar French Heifara-Wakea deployment it is not so much intended as a rapid reaction drill.
Planned are:
For "some reason" their advertising video (below ... with zero narration) for the exercise at the part for Japan and South Korea includes images of F/A-22s. If not in error (perfectly possible) this may indicate a USAF F/A-22 training stint to either country in September.
One of the Eurofighters of TaktLwG 74 has also been painted up for the occasion, for better pics:
It should be noted that the Luftwaffe is actively operating around the Pacific independent of such planned show pieces. There was a A400M at the Singapore Air Show in February for example, and the below A400M two weeks ago was coming in from Honolulu to San Diego, probably after dropping off some gear or supplies for the German SOF contribution to RIMPAC:
Rapid Pacific will take place on August 15th and move a group of 6 Eurofighter, 4 A400M and 3 A330 MRTT from Germany to Singapore in 24 hours with a single layover (and pilot change) in Abu Dhabi.
The flight entails a planned nine air-to-air refuelings enroute, and a minimum 6-week stay for 250 soldiers based out of Singapore until early October. There have been some hints that they plan to pre-shuttle crews to Abu Dhabi separately for the pilot change there instead of e.g. bringing them on one of the MRTTs or A400M; i.e. unlike the similar French Heifara-Wakea deployment it is not so much intended as a rapid reaction drill.
Planned are:
- participation in Pitch Black 2022 with the RAAF in Australia
- participation in Kakadu 2022 with the RAN in Australia
- exercises with the Singaporean Air Force
- visits of aircraft of the group to Japan and South Korea
For "some reason" their advertising video (below ... with zero narration) for the exercise at the part for Japan and South Korea includes images of F/A-22s. If not in error (perfectly possible) this may indicate a USAF F/A-22 training stint to either country in September.
One of the Eurofighters of TaktLwG 74 has also been painted up for the occasion, for better pics:
It should be noted that the Luftwaffe is actively operating around the Pacific independent of such planned show pieces. There was a A400M at the Singapore Air Show in February for example, and the below A400M two weeks ago was coming in from Honolulu to San Diego, probably after dropping off some gear or supplies for the German SOF contribution to RIMPAC:
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Australian Army Soldiers, Chilean Marines, Indonesian Marines, Malaysian Marines, Mexican Sailors, South-Korean Marines and US Marines in action during RIMPAC 2022.
For something a bit off the beaten track, including it here due to vicinity to China:
www.bundeswehr.de
(in German)
German troops have been training the Mongolian Army since 2019 for the purpose of building up a (high-altitude) mountain infantry specialization, with training teams from German 23rd Mountain Infantry Brigade regularly flying in for ca 3 weeks per year; this includes certain support troops such as medical teams. Select mongolian officers were also trained in Germany.
The cooperation stems from Germany previously providing training to the Mongolian Army for security companies deployed to ISAF. Mongolian Mountain Infantry Battalion 331 with 750 soldiers is supposed to be ready in 2024. It's stationed in the west of the country in the Altai mountain range, about 100 km from the borders to Xinjiang in China to the south and the Tyva Republic in Russia to the north. From 2023 training will move from where it's currently held in Ulan-Bataar to the base of the battalion.
Per current planning the cooperation finishes in 2024. On the Mongolian side they're apparently interested in continuing it beyond that in some fashion.
Heeressoldaten bilden mongolische Gebirgsjäger aus
Seit 2019 bilden deutsche Soldatinnen und Soldaten der Bundeswehr den Kern einer neuen Gebirgsjägertruppe für die Mongolei im Land aus.
www.bundeswehr.de
German troops have been training the Mongolian Army since 2019 for the purpose of building up a (high-altitude) mountain infantry specialization, with training teams from German 23rd Mountain Infantry Brigade regularly flying in for ca 3 weeks per year; this includes certain support troops such as medical teams. Select mongolian officers were also trained in Germany.
The cooperation stems from Germany previously providing training to the Mongolian Army for security companies deployed to ISAF. Mongolian Mountain Infantry Battalion 331 with 750 soldiers is supposed to be ready in 2024. It's stationed in the west of the country in the Altai mountain range, about 100 km from the borders to Xinjiang in China to the south and the Tyva Republic in Russia to the north. From 2023 training will move from where it's currently held in Ulan-Bataar to the base of the battalion.
Per current planning the cooperation finishes in 2024. On the Mongolian side they're apparently interested in continuing it beyond that in some fashion.
Part 1 of 2: RapidPazific — The Germans are coming!
1. The Indo-Pacific is not just about navies and naval power (European or otherwise). This is the era of tri-service integration for what I see as the urban littorals in our neck of the neighbourhood.
2. The Singapore Navy sees the urban littorals as:
3. Singapore does not posses any destroyers:
1. The Indo-Pacific is not just about navies and naval power (European or otherwise). This is the era of tri-service integration for what I see as the urban littorals in our neck of the neighbourhood.
2. The Singapore Navy sees the urban littorals as:
(a) a chain of over 150 Natuna islands that merchant ships sailing through our SLOCs must pass-through and our 6 Formidable-class frigates, 2 Archer-class and 2 Invincible-class submarines (soon to be commissioned) can reach or strike from, upon the request of our neighbour for assistance. The Singapore Navy is not just about presence with surface ships; it can also insert NDU operators by CH-47Fs and Type 218SGs into contested space or conduct deniable activities to support counter terrorism efforts — in this aspect, a key part of Singapore’s sea denial capability is supplied by the Germans; and
(b) a contested space that a toothless ASEAN in 2022 (that is hopelessly divided under Cambodia’s chairmanship) cannot cope with. The SAF’s participation in Ex Garuda Shield 2022, outside of the ADMM Plus framework, illustrate an aspect of this sort of security cooperation dynamics — a company of Singapore’s elite troops will be join this exercise. Even the ADF and JSDF are coming to Ex Garuda Shield in Indonesia — Australian and Japanese A2AD (in reverse of Chinese plans), at the request of a littoral state, concerned with the changing security dynamics.
3. Singapore does not posses any destroyers:
(a) As a tier 3 littoral navy with only frigates, along with the air force (soon to be equipped with F-35Bs from 2026 onwards), the SAF is capable of A2AD or sea denial against a larger blue water enemy force. It is not surprise that this is remarkably Swedish in approach, given that so many of our submarine crew are trained in Sweden. Given that Singapore operates 5 MPAs, 40 F-15SGs and 60 Vipers that currently can launch harpoon missiles, the sea around these over 150 Natuna islands are a target rich environment.
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Part 2 of 2: RapidPazific — The Germans are coming!
(b) Conversely, in a sea control role, the Singapore Navy augments the US Navy–Marine Corps team. The Singapore Navy’s Independence-class vessels and forthcoming MRCVs, can not only escort amphibious assault ships, they can serve as delivery platforms for unmanned autonomous sea & undersea vehicles, offering a ISR launch pad. That is why Del Toro, US Secretary of the Navy is in town for a visit to maintain a free and open IndoPacific.
(c) Given the likely PLA(N) naval task group capability (to conduct anti-air defences), the number of fighters and anti-ship missiles a littoral state can launch in the South China Sea (or the Straits of Malacca), is less important than its ability to conduct SEAD and EW. Without a plan to conduct SEAD & use EW efforts to support the fight, waves of anti-ship missiles fired by any ASEAN country would be wasted.
(d) This is why I think that the Philippines purchase of the BrahMos will not deter a PLA(N) task group led by a Type 055 destroyer. It just becomes a planning consideration, given that the PLA Navy will grow by +94 ships between 2020 to 2040. For any of anti-ship mission plan to succeed, the littoral country must use a complex strike package, supported by jamming (with SEAD missions allocated for certain ingress routes), before the simultaneous time-on-target launch of any anti-ship missile wave.
4. I am excited about the Germans coming to Singapore, as they go on their way to #PitchBlack2022 to be held in RAAF Bases Darwin & Tindal, in Australia.
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France is doing the same deployment (for PITCH BLACK) in parallel right now btw, called Pegase '22, nicknamed Mission Henri-Brown.
They're flying three Rafale, two A400M and two A330 MRTT to New Caledonia with a single stopover in India. Currently in flight, will arrive on Saturday.
They're planning visits in both Indonesia and Singapore on the way back to France after PITCH BLACK. One of the A400M seems to be staying in New Caledonia.
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Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Indian Airforce Su-30MKIs and C-17s having a short transit at Juanda naval airbase, Surabaya, before continuing their voyage to Pitchblack 2022, Darwin.
This year's exercise will involve 17 countries, including Australia, NZ, the US, Canada, the UK, Netherlands, France, the UAE, Indonesia, India, Singapore, Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia.
Germany, Japan and South Korea will be taking part for the first time.
Here a list of the participants.
This year's exercise will involve 17 countries, including Australia, NZ, the US, Canada, the UK, Netherlands, France, the UAE, Indonesia, India, Singapore, Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia.
Germany, Japan and South Korea will be taking part for the first time.
Here a list of the participants.
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