If the war outbreaks in Korea Peninsula?

If North Korea start a war again, Do you allow your contry's army to join this war?

  • I allow it.

    Votes: 25 65.8%
  • I don't allow it.

    Votes: 10 26.3%
  • etc.

    Votes: 3 7.9%

  • Total voters
    38
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swerve

Super Moderator
You are confusing the interests of "North Korea" (the people who live there) with "North Korea" (the leadership). They are not the same. The leadership doesn't give a wet fart what happens to the people, as long as enough of them survive to keep the leaders in power & in comfort.

Sanctions are only likely to have any effect on the actions of the leaders if they hurt the leaders. That means affecting their standard of living, or threatening their ability to make a nasty mess of parts of South Korea. The latter can be done with existing weapons, despite the obsolescence of most of their conventional weaponry.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
The key problem here is that existing sanctions are having no effect on the North Korean leadership who have no shortage of food, flat screen T.Vs, petrol for their limousines, etc. This is similiar to the situation in Iraq prior to the U.S. invasion when kids were dying due to a lack of medical components, which had dual uses, whilst Saddam and his clique still had their cases of Black Label and other luxury items.

Does anyone know when was the last time North Korea officially bought any military hardware from either Russia or China, and what was bought?

Would it benifit China to do anything but appear to "help" the South Koreans?
As long as the ''Dear Leader'' doesn't stir up any trouble or create any tension with his neighbours that would lead to open hostilities, the PRC is more than happy for the status quo to remain. The last thing they want is a U.S. ally on its border - a unified Korea.
 

Suprah

New Member
Does anyone know when was the last time North Korea officially bought any military hardware from either Russia or China, and what was bought?
Let's be honest, no-one (from the west at least) could possibly know. Even 'official' buys would probably be falsified in some way. There is barely any military transparency for NK and it's starting to emerge that there's just as little for the PRC.
 

Sampanviking

Banned Member
As long as the ''Dear Leader'' doesn't stir up any trouble or create any tension with his neighbours that would lead to open hostilities, the PRC is more than happy for the status quo to remain. The last thing they want is a U.S. ally on its border - a unified Korea.
Precisely and the PRC would pull out all the stops to prevent a change to the Status Quo that produced that end result.

With that in mind and the likely consequences thereof, can somebody explain to me how a Korea unified under the North would pose a serious risk to US National Security?
 

swerve

Super Moderator
As long as the ''Dear Leader'' doesn't stir up any trouble or create any tension with his neighbours that would lead to open hostilities, the PRC is more than happy for the status quo to remain. The last thing they want is a U.S. ally on its border - a unified Korea.
The "Dear Leader" costs China a lot of money to keep afloat (he can't pay for all the oil etc. it supplies to him) & is an internal embarrassment, what with so many of his citizens trying to escape. Chinese border guards are reported (by N. Korean refugees who make it) to sometimes ignore their orders to stop them, out of sympathy for the poor starving buggers. They can then find shelter with sympathetic locals. Not a situation the central government is happy with.

Certainly, China wouldn't want a US ally on its borders, but it'd have no problem with a unified Korea as long as it was not allied to the USA. The ideal solution would be for South Korea to be detached from its US alliance, & then take over the north. Much easier said than done, though.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
The "Dear Leader" costs China a lot of money to keep afloat (he can't pay for all the oil etc. it supplies to him) & is an internal embarrassment, what with so many of his citizens trying to escape.
Not too clear on the details but during a recent visit to Russia, the ''Dear Leader'' has managed to secure some badly needed revenue, by signing an oil deal that has made the Russians very happy as they have been pushing this deal for a while now, this was reported in Al Jazeera. South Korea is also not in any hurry for unification, as it is aware that it would have to spend billions, like West Germany did, in rehabilitating and rebuilding North Korea. Japan, for a number of reasons is also not keen on a unified Korea.

Let's be honest, no-one (from the west at least) could possibly know. Even 'official' buys would probably be falsified in some way. There is barely any military transparency for NK and it's starting to emerge that there's just as little for the PRC.
As far as I know, the last ''official'' deal was an order for Igla's back in the 1990's.
 

Waylander

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
The amount of money West Germany had to push into East Germany is a piece of cake compared to what SK would need to spend in order to bring the north even remotely close to their own standards.

East Germany was still a well developed 1st world country and the best developed of the WarPac countries and it was still expensive and difficult to integrate them into the West. I don't see SK beeing able to do the same with NK. Not without considerable (and i am speaking of hundreds of billions) help.
 

tonyget

Member
East Germany was still a well developed 1st world country and the best developed of the WarPac countries and it was still expensive and difficult to integrate them into the West. I don't see SK beeing able to do the same with NK. Not without considerable (and i am speaking of hundreds of billions) help.

SK doesn't need to "integrate" NK, because there is a already exist model called "One country, two systems"
 

NICO

New Member
SK doesn't need to "integrate" NK, because there is a already exist model called "One country, two systems"
NK doesn't even share the same spoken/written language with SK anymore, it is one way you can spot a KNorean from SKorean from what I have read. NK is so far behind SK, there is no way SKorea can afford to bring up NK to even "poor"standard of living. SKorea isn't West Germany in terms of money and power, it will have to be a joint effort from the entire world community to raise hundreds of billions of dollars, probably more than a trillion . You have to rip EVERYTHING out and replace it with modern equipment. East Germany was far more advanced than NKorea and it took a ton of money and many years, actually reunification is still ongoing....I wouldn't be surprised if SK/NK reunite TODAY that it would take close to 40 or 50 years to merge...

Personally, I think one of the reason China likes this stalemate is the fact that, forget the refuge crisis that they would have on their border if things went down the tubes (war) but the fact that China most likely would end up paying the bill of reunification.:D


Interesting article about German reunification.

Eastern Germany is western Germany's trillion euro bet | German Reunification | Deutsche Welle | 24.09.2010
 

My2Cents

Active Member
Personally, I think one of the reason China likes this stalemate is the fact that, forget the refuge crisis that they would have on their border if things went down the tubes (war) but the fact that China most likely would end up paying the bill of reunification.:D
More like China is afraid that they would get stuck with the bill in order to avoid the reunification! :coodaid

North Korea is a vampire that will suck the life out of whichever country ends up controlling it. Let’s be honest, even being taken over by China could easily improve the life of the average North Korean peasant several hundred percent, they are that low.
 

tonyget

Member
It depends on how SK wanted to treat their northern fellows. If they just wanna to treat them as cheap labours/second class citizens, don't give them same rights as SKers, the reunification could be cheap.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
NK doesn't even share the same spoken/written language with SK anymore, it is one way you can spot a KNorean from SKorean from what I have read.
They've been divided less than a lifetime. Languages don't diverge that quickly.

AFAIK the written language differs because N. Koreans only use Hangul, the indigenous Korean phonetic script. That means that S. Koreans can read N. Korean perfectly, but N. Koreans (except the old) might have difficulty with S. Korean, because it mixes Chinese characters in with the Hangul.

The many N. Koreans who've made it to S. Korea don't seem to have linguistic problems. Since the old system of restricting the populace to push-button tuning only, hard-wired to N. Korean state channels, radios & TVs broke down, many N. Koreans have been able to listen to S. Korean radio & those lucky enough to live near a border or get hold of a satellite dish can watch S. Korean TV.

Because of food shortages, young N. Koreans are much shorter than young S. Koreans, & the gap's widening. Before WW2 the north was enough richer than the south that northerners were noticeably taller.
 

NICO

New Member
They've been divided less than a lifetime. Languages don't diverge that quickly.

AFAIK the written language differs because N. Koreans only use Hangul, the indigenous Korean phonetic script. That means that S. Koreans can read N. Korean perfectly, but N. Koreans (except the old) might have difficulty with S. Korean, because it mixes Chinese characters in with the Hangul.

The many N. Koreans who've made it to S. Korea don't seem to have linguistic problems. Since the old system of restricting the populace to push-button tuning only, hard-wired to N. Korean state channels, radios & TVs broke down, many N. Koreans have been able to listen to S. Korean radio & those lucky enough to live near a border or get hold of a satellite dish can watch S. Korean TV.

Because of food shortages, young N. Koreans are much shorter than young S. Koreans, & the gap's widening. Before WW2 the north was enough richer than the south that northerners were noticeably taller.
The point I was trying to make was it is more difficult than people assume for SK and NK to reunite. Obviously, as you say, they can still communicate but something that simple has diverged and would need to be addressed, what about infrastructure, media, military,etc....this is all stuff that would require huge funds for them to normalize.
 

My2Cents

Active Member
It depends on how SK wanted to treat their northern fellows. If they just wanna to treat them as cheap labours/second class citizens, don't give them same rights as SKers, the reunification could be cheap.
Only in the sort term. Long term (in about 10 years) it would be a disaster.
 

NICO

New Member
Only in the sort term. Long term (in about 10 years) it would be a disaster.
I don't even think it would take them 10 years to become a disaster, NKoreans wouldn't have anything left to lose but with just a modicum of liberty and access to media/communication, they would create a nightmare for any SKorea government that doesn't listen to population demands.
 

Armoredpriapism

New Member
The amount of money West Germany had to push into East Germany is a piece of cake compared to what SK would need to spend in order to bring the north even remotely close to their own standards.

East Germany was still a well developed 1st world country and the best developed of the WarPac countries and it was still expensive and difficult to integrate them into the West. I don't see SK beeing able to do the same with NK. Not without considerable (and i am speaking of hundreds of billions) help.
If the South unified the country the sanctions that have kept the country poor would almot certainly be lifted. The rebuilding effort would likely employ Northern Koreans to rebuild Northern Korea under the direction of national and multi-national companies as well as the South Korean government. Unemployment should be low. Who wouldn't jump at the chance to work as many hours a day as they'd always worked but for many times the wage, all to make a better country for their kids? I don't expect the South to bring the North up to it's standards right away but simply incentivise Northern Koreans to remain employed and beginning the slow process of infrastructure development. The North will probably be seen as the poor area for a generation but it's standards of living will go up drastically relatively shortly, right?
 
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My2Cents

Active Member
I don't even think it would take them 10 years to become a disaster, NKoreans wouldn't have anything left to lose but with just a modicum of liberty and access to media/communication, they would create a nightmare for any SKorea government that doesn't listen to population demands.
You and me, we would be starting a revolt within the 1st year.

But the NKoreans have been beaten down for 3 generations. Reports on escapees that have made it to SKorea indicate that they have difficulty implementing decisions -- not deciding what to do, but realizing that they have the right to choose. And while they are willing to work hard, they are lacking it many basic skills needed to prosper in a modern society. The vast majority of the current adults will probably just act grateful to have enough to eat (which will be a HUGE improvement for them) and keep their heads down, it is what they have done all their life just to survive this long. :bum

The revolutionaries are going to be the current generation, i.e. the children, as they come of age, and on an adequate diet which will allow proper brain development. Couple that, as you note, with just a modicum of liberty and access to media/communication, they would create a nightmare for any SKorea government that doesn't listen to popular demands. That is why I think it will be closer to 10 years before it explodes. :type
 

Armoredpriapism

New Member
You and me, we would be starting a revolt within the 1st year.

But the NKoreans have been beaten down for 3 generations. Reports on escapees that have made it to SKorea indicate that they have difficulty implementing decisions -- not deciding what to do, but realizing that they have the right to choose. And while they are willing to work hard, they are lacking it many basic skills needed to prosper in a modern society. The vast majority of the current adults will probably just act grateful to have enough to eat (which will be a HUGE improvement for them) and keep their heads down, it is what they have done all their life just to survive this long. :bum

The revolutionaries are going to be the current generation, i.e. the children, as they come of age, and on an adequate diet which will allow proper brain development. Couple that, as you note, with just a modicum of liberty and access to media/communication, they would create a nightmare for any SKorea government that doesn't listen to popular demands. That is why I think it will be closer to 10 years before it explodes. :type
Why do you expect there to be a revolt? What would they rebel from? Sorry for the one line answer but I don't know where you guys are coming from :)
 

My2Cents

Active Member
Why do you expect there to be a revolt? What would they rebel from? Sorry for the one line answer but I don't know where you guys are coming from :)
Use the little green arrow next to the id of the user being quoted to back track. The quote system only copy the last response. (Which keeps the overall length under control.)

In this case it started here:
It depends on how SK wanted to treat their northern fellows. If they just wanna to treat them as cheap labours/second class citizens, don't give them same rights as SKers, the reunification could be cheap.
:wave
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The point I was trying to make was it is more difficult than people assume for SK and NK to reunite. Obviously, as you say, they can still communicate but something that simple has diverged and would need to be addressed, what about infrastructure, media, military,etc....this is all stuff that would require huge funds for them to normalize.
I know, but I deliberately restricted my reply to the language issue.

At present, North Korea has 20 million or so people who are desperately poor, plus a few million who are relatively privileged (though not by S. Korean standards), & a very small number who are well off by almost any standard.

S. Korea couldn't extend its minimum wage to cover the north. At 4580 won (ca USD4) per hour, N. Korean industry & agriculture would be priced out of the market. But nor can it cope with millions of N. Koreans flooding south to seek higher waged jobs.

The great post-unification economic problem would be keeping northerners at home, while finding ways for them to earn enough to be healthy & reasonably content, & building up their country. This would mean a dual economy for a long time, in which the northern provinces had lower minimum wages, etc., made up for by massive subsidies from the south. Those subsidies would have to spent wisely, on infrastructure & education, mostly. Southern & foreign firms would have to be encouraged to move in. Perhaps make most of the many vast army camps available on leases which are free for 10 or 20 years, provided the land is used for businesses employing a certain number of people, with the government paying for infrastructure.

There's considerable agricultural potential, but disastrous government policies have damaged the land badly. There would need to be money spent on reforestation, but happily, this could employ a lot of locals planting trees. giving them a reason to stay where they are.

Roads & railways need upgrading, & telecoms infrastructure is almost non-existent by modern standards, while the south is the most wired country in the world. The physical improvement of transport infrastructure can be mostly done by locals, but they currently lack the skills for installing modern telecoms infrastructure. There'd have to be large training programmes, while initial work was done by southerners. Roll out a decent mobile phone net first, because it's the cheapest way to cover the country.

South Korea makes everything that's needed, so there's a potential huge boost to southern manufacturers. They'd have to be made to locate as much as possible of the expanded production in the north, though, or the inequalities would be exacerbated. Keeping the minimum wage low enough for this while not making it so low that southerners would object to 'cheap labour' & jobs being stolen would be a difficult balancing act.

There'd be a great danger of southerners taking the best jobs up north, while northerners get menial jobs across the whole country. The social & political undesirability is obvious. Therefore, the middle privileged minority in the north could not be shut out completely, however inappropriate their skills & attitudes. The very top, the Kim family & the other leaders, would probably be unemployable, though.

Most of the military are conscripts, but there are also a lot of long-service troops. It could be wise to give them priority in employment in infrastructure work schemes, e.g. planting trees on remote hillsides, & projects which need a larger work force than can be recruited in the area where they take place.

South Korea currently has huge foreign currency reserves. With the need to import raw materials, extra food until northern agriculture can be repaired, & diversion of domestic manufacturing production to rebuilding the north, it's likely that those reserves would be needed to finance trade deficits for several years. So be it.

Government debt is low, so a budget deficit can be tolerated for a while, but there would still need to be large tax rises to keep it within bounds. I would expect huge political pressure on the chaebol to spend some of their financial reserves in the north, to keep down the need for government spending.

Military spending could be cut, but that would only finance a small part.

Things like the minimum wage would have to have an escalator, a gradual adjustment upwards to gradually bring them closer to S. Korean standards, so that northerners wouldn't feel they're permanently 2nd class.
 
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