General Aviation Thread

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Enhancing the 737-9/10 any further is pretty much flogging a dead horse. Boeing needs a clean sheet design to address the A321LR and XLR and the goal should be to surpass these jets. Unfortunately Boeing’s cash situation is poor and the KC-46 is another disaster program. The long term potential for the 777X is probably a concern as well. They have payed off significant numbers of engineering staff. The COVID order slow down will allow Boeing some breathing room to develop something new but given their record of late, a new jet will be a long time coming.
 

Ananda

Well-Known Member
Enhancing the 737-9/10 any further is pretty much flogging a dead horse.
True, but they need something soon perhaps as something in between answer for A321Neo/LR/XLR. Even if they moving for FSA, it will not be ready soon. Can they afford to let Airbus taking all middle market during this decade ?

Cause it will take them most of this decade to come out with FSA or NMA to counter Airbus in the middle market. Tinkering with 787-9/10 perhaps their only choice until they can come out with new Airframes, either FSA or NMA.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Wouldn’t it make more sense for airlines envisioning the need for A321LR/ XLR to place orders for delivery in 3-4 years from now when hopefully air travel picks up? For airlines to wait 8-10 years for a jet matching Airbus offerings is tough if your competitors have them in 2-5 years. I guess the economics of using 737-9/10 against the LR and XLR will be the deciding factor. Needless to say, any serious incident with the reintroduction of the MAX((737-9/10) will be game over.
 

Ananda

Well-Known Member
it make more sense for airlines envisioning the need for A321LR/ XLR to place orders for delivery in 3-4 years from now when hopefully air travel
Agree, that's why I said in previous posts that if Boeing don't have the answer soon they will lose the momentum. This decade is the time when most of current middle market capacity need to be replaced. Most of 757 as the current benchmark for middle market will need replacement this decades.

This problem with MAX really jeopardize Boeing answer to the middle market. Boeing in fact early on already see middle market potential with their plan on NMA. However somehow in my opinion they're also think 737-9/10 will also be enough to gain middle of market for them.

Problem is they seems not expecting Airbus to come out with A321 LR/XLR. 737-9/10 from what Industry analyst put in media will be enough to counter A321 Neo but still fell short for LR/XLR.
In the same time the trend of Medium-Long Range Middle Market between cities especially secondary cities to big hub or secondary cities to each other, picking up. Something that A321 LR/XLR poised to take it without current answer from Boeing.

FSA or NMA will be Boeing answer in the future, but they also in my opinion can't let A321 LR/XLR roaming free in that market segment without some effort from them to try provide counter answer.
 

Terran

Active Member
In my opinion The deaths of the Queens of the air was due to 777. Once that bird emerged the 747’s days were numbered. There is still a need for wide body long hall long haul birds and 777 is that , A350 is that. The lower level flyers are regional machines. They have a mission but for the long international flights those twin engine long body machines are the answer. I agree that Boeing has had its rough patch yet recall Airbus was the one who placed its bets on A380. A bird that only has a future hauling oversized freight. These two feed on each other move for move.
Boeing does need a 757X back in the day they talked about a 787-100 in just about the right class. Though if there was a game changer tech in need to get people flying again I think the big aviation side needs to get a overhaul to the internal Environments in a very public way. Sanitizing lavatories. If you can convince people they are not simply rebreathing the air and environment from first class even in coach then they will board the plane again.

Anyway that big aviation seems like there may be a shake up coming in little aviation to. It seems to me like Well the big birds sit the little birds are likely having a potential rise. That market also seems set for a shakeup. The Potentially Revolutionary Celera 500L Aircraft Officially Breaks Cover
Smaller, more efficient as fast as Biz jets.
Then you have the AW609 which offers a combination vertical and long range flight. The the R&D on super sonic Business jets. These three concepts might be placed for a good growth area in the next decades.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Boeing marketing was right on with respect to Super jumbos and they didn’t counter with an A380 alternative. As for the 747 market (jumbo~400 passenger), it was the introduction of very large turbofan engines with excellent reliability that allowed twin engine wide bodies that spelled the end for one of aviation’s greatest designs.
 

Ananda

Well-Known Member
If you can convince people they are not simply rebreathing the air and environment from first class even in coach then they will board the plane again.
Well people already taking to the sky now, even in countries where COVID still not completely under control. Especially for domestic market.
I believe I have posted before, the industry prediction whose going to take the flight first. Seems it's correct, the business travellers and the millennials tourists are mostly the ones that taking the flight.

Domestic flights passanger begin to reach more than 50% of pre COVID capacities. In Indonesia, the domestic flights to Bali full by Millennials even Foreign Expats that want to escape boredom of big cities like Jakarta.

Problem now is International Flights. Most countries still locked foreign tourists. Still if this's open, even with pandemic still going on, I believe at least 50% of Pre COVID International Flight capacities will be back soon.

Millennials seems doesn't care on what the Boomers and Gen X worries on the health safety in the Cabin. They simply buy the Airlines assurance on air filtering in Cabins. Millennials are the segment that want to travel more.

Thailand will open for International tourists by 1st of October. Bali's provincial government now lobbying hard to Indonesia central government to give Bali exemption from Central government International tourists lock down up to end of the year. Bali argues, that as their own local infection much lower than national average, they can have exemption.

We can see after Thailand opening their International Tourists, how much the appetite from global tourists back to Thailand. Even if reach only 50% International Flights, it shows that at least half of world population don't really care on the pandemic. That portion based on my prediction on current domestic tourists trend right now, which significantly fill by Millennials.

Add:
A month ago, some of us from different industries make an unofficial questionnaire to each our own staff on their feeling for traveling under COVID condition.
The results shown younger staff (millennials) are much more keen to take travels if company policies permit them ( now in Indonesia many companies tell their staff if they are taking travel they have to take 14 days quarantine after that, taking from their own annual leave quota).

Most of millennials saying that, we don't have diabetic, high blood pressure and Hart condition. Older guys that begin having that problem that should not take travels yet.

This kind of believe is quite strong on younger generation. For that eventough it's unofficial questionnaires and hardly scientific based, for me already shown the Millennials will fill the flights if they're given the opportunity.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Boeing has ordered groundings of 8 Dreamliners due to a couple of manufacturing issues. Not welcome news but at least this action is taking place before an incident occurred. No mention of which site these jets were assembled at.

 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
A six passenger plane that has a 4,500 mile range and can reach 460 mph according to this report. The fuel efficiency allows this plane to be competitive with commercial aircraft. It would seem to be the perfect solution for travellers fearing COVID inflection on regular commercial flights.


Mysterious 'bullet' plane is finally revealed
Long-awaited Celera 500L 'bullet' plane is finally revealed
Looks very interesting but lack of specifications, pricing let alone what aircraft they classify as comparable still leaves big questions around it. That said not so sure it would replace regular commercial flights due to simple matter of airport landing capacity. Don't think they could land 30 of these in time takes to land a 737/A320.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Looks very interesting but lack of specifications, pricing let alone what aircraft they classify as comparable still leaves big questions around it. That said not so sure it would replace regular commercial flights due to simple matter of airport landing capacity. Don't think they could land 30 of these in time takes to land a 737/A320.
Agree about the landing capacity and price will be an issue. Where I see interest is from corporate customers which normally would shy away from company jets due to cost of operations. This potentially lower cost and COVID concerns about large airliners may entice them.
 

Ananda

Well-Known Member

Talking about personal flight, this concept for electric flying cars from Japan is quite interesting. The prototype remind me of 'speeder' from Star Wars.

They tested it in Toyota's facilities, perhaps indication that Toyota will be in the background after all. Still with relative compact dimensions (only going to take two cars parking space), this means like Airbus Air Taxi, it's will be compatible for direct urban usage.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Some nice photos of the very large Stratolaucher. Looks like a tight fit getting it in to its dedicated hanger. So far, it’s flight history matches that of Howard Hughes’ Spruce Goose albeit longer and higher.
 

Terran

Active Member
Biggest issue is what do you do with it? Every thing that was optioned to mount between those fuselages was either the victim of a collapsed deal, better mounted on a conventional rocket or never left paper. After the death of Paul Allen no one knew what to do with it. Like it’s older smaller siblings Virgin Galactic‘s Spaceship and White Knight it sits waiting for someone who has an Idea.
4C90D89B-3184-46C1-90C0-B11E200AB0E6.png
First Rok was supposed to launch Falcon 9 Air. That fell apart. Then Orbital Science Corps Pegasus II aka Thunderbolt rocket that fell apart.
then Stargazer a bigger Pegasus rocket but those can be launched off a Modified conventional airliner Or B52.
They shopped Sierra Nevada Corp to put A mini Dreamchaser under it. Never came to be. Dreamchaser is still chasing a manned mission but is looking to work a day job as a cargo truck to ISS.
Then Stratolaunch went looking to clean sheet. There own family of launch platforms the Medium Launch Vehicle series including their own mini space plane. That’s dead well most is they still seem to want the mini space plane dubbed Black Ice. Last report they were looking now at Using it to launch test Hypersonic vehicles. Their own called Talon A.
Other than that it seems like a Solution in search of a problem. Hope the company can get some contracts for drop tests it’s purpose built for it. However right now like it’s smaller siblings it seems to have a nebulous future.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
The Dreamliner manufacturing problem I posted earlier is now being examined by the FAA. The earlier report mentioned 8 aircraft. If the FAA orders all Dreamliners to be inspected then this will be a huge burden for Boeing, something Boeing could do without considering their other problems.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Some more detailed information on the latest Dreamliner issue can be found in the link below. This link also mentions the MAX cancellation numbers.
 
This new ban is pretty disturbing. As a long time flyer, I still miss real china plates, metal knives and forks, and wine glasses actually made of glass. Now a few flights originating from certain countries will not allow laptops or tablets as carry on items. I can't imagine the chaos for the road-warrior class in NA if devices must be checked...then again if everyone has to check luggage the frigging planes might get away from the gates faster as passengers won't be trying to fit carry-ons into non-existent overhead bins.

Experts criticize US electronic devices ban on some flights from Middle East
why I have my own plane.
Art
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Some more detailed information on the latest Dreamliner issue can be found in the link below. This link also mentions the MAX cancellation numbers.
“Following an assessment of the manufacturing process, a total of 893 airplanes are believed to be affected.”
Imagine 893 inspections and possibly also 893 corrective actions required....thats a lot of manhours!

There are so many problems with the production process of the 787, its just hard to follow and very confusing.
This is a new problem (so not one of the two of last month, but a new one):
The news article is in Netherlands language, but (luckily) only 8 aircrafts are effected.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
This seems to be yet another manufacturing issue (4th one I believe) that is relevant to over 600 planes according to the article. Was interested in flying on one of Air Canada’s Dreamliners but I prefer Westjet’s (737)
Toronto Abbotsford route as opposed to AC’s Toronto Vancouver route. Might as well go for convenience as MAX may be no worse than a 787 long term. Boeing in talks with FAA about new reported 787 production issue
 
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