Future of Russian Military

[Wall83]

Russia's defense spending to rise by 60% by 2013 - paper | Defense | RIA Novosti

Acourding to this the russian defencebudget will go up by 60% by 2013.
Most will go to the navy and new Borei and Yasen class submarines. Three Talwar frigates, three convential submarines for the Black sea fleet and the construction of the first two Mistral class wessels will also be included in the new budget.

The air force will recive 24 new carrier based MiG-29Ks, 60 Sukhoi aircrafts including the 32 Su-34 orderd in 2008.

 

[DarthAmerica]

Anyone who has followed post Soviet Russia is not really impressed by any of this. Not even T-50. Lets put some informed context on this. Most of Russia's kit is still Soviet era. By that I mean that compared to western nations who also still use Cold War era systems, the Russia systems haven't seen the amount of care and updates. So it's really remarkable that most of that stuff even still works. So i's no surprise that Russia on occasion buys a few dozen this or that to maintain some limited conventional force structure capable of local internal defense and the occational punitive small scale conflict against a periphery state. Beyond that however Russia is still reliant on it's geography and nuclear arms as it's primary offensive and defensive tools.

As a parting thought and just to give you an idea of how bad it is. Consider that Russia is BUYING French Amphibious ships and may even bring back more Kirovs. To some thats sounds formidable but to people who remember Soviet Russia is sounds like Russian ship building is not up to par and production rates and ramp up times for modern systems is only a fraction of what it was.

Regards,
-DA

 

[Wall83]

Anyone who has followed post Soviet Russia is not really impressed by any of this. Not even T-50. Lets put some informed context on this. Most of Russia's kit is still Soviet era. By that I mean that compared to western nations who also still use Cold War era systems, the Russia systems haven't seen the amount of care and updates. So it's really remarkable that most of that stuff even still works. So i's no surprise that Russia on occasion buys a few dozen this or that to maintain some limited conventional force structure capable of local internal defense and the occational punitive small scale conflict against a periphery state. Beyond that however Russia is still reliant on it's geography and nuclear arms as it's primary offensive and defensive tools.

As a parting thought and just to give you an idea of how bad it is. Consider that Russia is BUYING French Amphibious ships and may even bring back more Kirovs. To some thats sounds formidable but to people who remember Soviet Russia is sounds like Russian ship building is not up to par and production rates and ramp up times for modern systems is only a fraction of what it was.

Regards,
-DA

I do agree with you but the Russian armed forces does have awaken some what in recent years. If you look back 10-12 years the armed forces was not having any orders at all and the navy and airforce was retiring eqiupment like crazy. Now they have started to get thier finance in order so they can train thier troops and make small orders.

With this said I do think that the Russian armed forces will continue to slowly shrink.

 

[DarthAmerica]

I do agree with you but the Russian armed forces does have awaken some what in recent years. If you look back 10-12 years the armed forces was not having any orders at all and the navy and airforce was retiring eqiupment like crazy. Now they have started to get thier finance in order so they can train thier troops and make small orders.

With this said I do think that the Russian armed forces will continue to slowly shrink.

I see. Based on my experience it's not much more than normal modernization and attrition replacement procurement. Even then it's well short of what most other countries are doing. For Russia, the nuclear forces are good enough to deter all but the most unlikely of scenarios that actually pose existential threats. The conventional forces are now primarily used punatively against states like Georgia in which case it's just fine IMHO.

-DA

 

[IronsightSniper]

Yeah, Russia is probably just rearming their military to give a presence of, "Don't derp with us". Although I still like most of the Russian equipment, they are being produced in incredibly low numbers. I attribute that to their weak economy, thanks to the collapse of the Soviet Union and all. However, I do have hope that the Russian military begins purchasing the modern stuff soon.


P.S. The Tu-160 is a strategic bomber, no?

 

[DarthAmerica]

Yeah, Russia is probably just rearming their military to give a presence of, "Don't derp with us". Although I still like most of the Russian equipment, they are being produced in incredibly low numbers. I attribute that to their weak economy, thanks to the collapse of the Soviet Union and all. However, I do have hope that the Russian military begins purchasing the modern stuff soon.


P.S. The Tu-160 is a strategic bomber, no?

It's not just a weak economy. If your manufacturing and technology sectors spend a decade in neglect, then it takes a considerable amount of time to reconstitute. There are skill sets and institutional knowledge that die off if not passed down to successive generations as well. This is one reason why you see European nations continuing to manufacture and develop Cold War weapons systems for no obvious reasons. The reasons are sometimes just to preserve the capability.

-DA

 

[Saiga]

Sure the Russian Army is not in the best shape.
Despite that the industry is producing and developing a lot of new toys.
Russia is exporting a fourth of all global military exports.
The Russian Army don't own the new equipment in recent numbers but the quality and the capabilities are for sure on world level.
If this goes on I don't see a problem.

@Arc Light
I know he is banned, anyway.
Reading such crap is somehow amusing.

 

[justone]

Russia Military is being moderize it going to take time. When the government change to a western system certain things have to be done first like reorganizating the way money come and go and much more. Russian military is going to catch up with Europe, United States, and China real soon. Its just getting the money right first. The project that the Russian have been doing now are some good one. The threat that Russia has now has change so they trying find what are there agenda on defense going to be. By 2020 the Russia Military should be back and better than it was in the 70's 80's 90's.

 

[Wall83]

So where do Russia stand with its rearment program by late 2010.

The Bulava SLBM seems finaly to be working again. If the flight-tests continue to be successfull the missile should be operational by late 2011. This will also probably speed up the Borei production and we should see the second submarine be launched in 2011 as well with the third one some year or two later. I do doubt however that 5 will be ready for service by 2015 as planned.

Also the first Yasen nuclear submarine is soon to join the Russian navy after over 15 years in biulding. Probably by 2011 that to. A second one has been laid down so we could have 2 submarines in this class in service by 2015.

Several frigate and corvette classes being laid down in 2004-2006 seems to be running late. The first Admiral Sergey Gorshkov frigate was rolled out just a couple of days ago but wont be ready for atleast a year. Almost desperat it seems Moskow has orderd 3 new Krivak IV class frigates to fill upp the upcoming holes in the Black sea fleet.

The Lada class convential submarine also seems to be going nowere. Moscow orderd several new submarines from the older Kilo class to fill up holes here to.

The MBT T-90 is being constructed at a slow pace but the number is encreasing. However the T-95 project was dropped in early 2010.

In the Air force the first Su-35S should be start to be diliverd in 2011. Its unknown (atleast by me) how many Su-34 has been build as of today. Would be suprised if its more then 20. The goal was 58 by 2015 so we have to wait and see.
No new Tu-160.

The rocket forces has scipped the Topol-m production and has haved the first RS-24 mirved missiles put on duty. The number of new ICBMs deployd each year seems to continue as before.

 

[Feanor]

The T-90 had a state defense order of 123 units this year. BMP-3M production has replaced BMP-3 production and is conitnuing at ~battalion set a year. Around 150-200 BTR-82s are now being produced, rather then the BTR-80s that were produced annually before now.

A Russo-Israeli joint production venture on UAVs seems to be in the works, meanwhile purchases of the Tipchak artillery correction UAV are continuing at one complex a year (10 UAVs, a launch vehicle and a control vehicle).

A new AK-105 derivative is in the works to replace the 74M currently in service. The T-90M is being finalized right now, and will probably see production next year, with currentl T-90 and T-90A upgraded to that standard. GLONASS systems are becoming more and more common on all forms of military transportation.

Helicopter wise the first Mi-28N regiment seems to be complete. A number of Mi-8MTV-5 have been purchased and will continue to be purchased, to phase out older Mi-8T models. A number of Ansat-U trainers have replaced the Mi-2 helo trainers.

The first traning squadron of Yak-130 has been delivered, with roughly 5-12 Su-34 currently completed (it's becoming hard to tell at this point).

 

[Wall83]

Even if most of the re-arm goals that was set in late 2000s probably wont be reached by 2015 Im feeling more optimistic about the russian defence industri today then I did a couple a years ago.

Moscow also seems to be more willing (or forced) to give branches like the Navy more resources. This might just be becouse they have realised that the old Soviet equipment soon will be unuseable.

However I will continue to doubt most announced completion date.

 

[Feanor]

As always Russia will be Russia. Things will get done, just not the way anyone expects them to.

 

[Feanor]

Interesting updates, it seems Kurganmash is having trouble fullfilling the VDV state procurement program on BMD-4M and BTR-MD Rakushka (the APC derivative of the BMD-4M) despite availability of funding. It's unclear whether this is a product of poor state of production facilities (which is possible but unlikely, given all the BMP-3 orders they've fulfilled), or a case of lack of production facilities to take the order. This is despite the order being a modest 10 of each vehicle.

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However upgrades of BMD-1, 2, and 2S9 Nona self-propelled mortars are continuing.

 

[Comrade69]

Its suprising that Russia cant produce more than it has, if you compare with China Russia is far behind. Since the year 2000 China has commissioned about 15 hevy destoyers and fregates, russia none. China has produced and bought 200-300 planes to its air force the last 10 years, Russia about 20. Submarines in the last 10 years, China: ~30. Russia: ~5.
I would think that russia wont have much of a armed force after 2020, most likley not bigger then a medium sized european country.

thats because russia just got out of debt in 2007 i believe which was a miracle because they owed insane loads of money to a lot of countries so basically that decade they mainly worked on repaying their debts rather than pouring money on their military. this decade now that their out of debt should be different

 

[Feanor]

Debt wasn't the issue. Lack of funds was a big part of it. Disorganization and general collapse of the industry was another one. Note how long it took to get Su-34 production off the ground. NAPO had to be retooled complete, and even after that, accelerating production is slow and painful. They have yet to reach squadron strength IOC even though LRIP aircraft were delivered in late 2006, and the conveyor was supposedly started iirc 2008.

There is also the problem of allocating the funds. Often the money disappears on it's way down.

 

[Comrade69]

Debt wasn't the issue. Lack of funds was a big part of it. Disorganization and general collapse of the industry was another one. Note how long it took to get Su-34 production off the ground. NAPO had to be retooled complete, and even after that, accelerating production is slow and painful. They have yet to reach squadron strength IOC even though LRIP aircraft were delivered in late 2006, and the conveyor was supposedly started iirc 2008.

There is also the problem of allocating the funds. Often the money disappears on it's way down.

i hear ya but it is hard to get funds when almost half your population is living in poverty.

i grew up in russia in the mid and late 90's with a single mom and i remember that if they paid my mom twice in a month(supposed to get paid weekly) that was considered a good month....i remember going to kindergarten and they would only feed us about twice a week(supposed to feed kids every day)

and a lot of those soviet generals that had good income and nice houses apartments in soviet times were now sleeping on the streets with empty bottles of vodka in their hands(yes i seen this for myself before)
and the cops were ALL corrupted because they all were being run by the mafia

im not trying to make you guys feel bad for me but im just expaling why russia's military budget suffrered in the 90's and early 2000's

I now live in the US and i just visited 2 years ago and all i gota say is its WAY better then the place i remember. A lot more poeple are employed and make good or decent money and everyone gets fed. the mafia doesnt run all the stores in towns and places is overall better and not the place i remember growing up

 

[Feanor]

The mafia still runs the stores, they just wear uniforms and call themselves the tax police. But that aside, we know why the budget suffered. Like I said lack of funds was an issue. State or national debt was not.

 

[Comrade69]

The mafia still runs the stores, they just wear uniforms and call themselves the tax police. But that aside, we know why the budget suffered. Like I said lack of funds was an issue. State or national debt was not.

how could debt not be a factor?


seriously explain this time me. how can you produce new things and pay your scientist top money to research stuff when your bank accounts all show negatives

 

[Feanor]

how could debt not be a factor?


seriously explain this time me. how can you produce new things and pay your scientist top money to research stuff when your bank accounts all show negatives

It doesn't quite work that way. Russia has been increasing defense spending since 2000 while they only got out of debt in 2007. You can be in debt and pay off the debt in installments, while still having a profitable federal budget. Also Russia wasn't in debt in 1992, or rather it wasn't in significant debt. But military industrial production and defense funding were still dropping.

Just because the country is in debt doesn't mean that the bank accounts are showing 0.

 

[martyn]

It doesn't quite work that way. Russia has been increasing defense spending since 2000 while they only got out of debt in 2007. You can be in debt and pay off the debt in installments, while still having a profitable federal budget. Also Russia wasn't in debt in 1992, or rather it wasn't in significant debt. But military industrial production and defense funding were still dropping.

Just because the country is in debt doesn't mean that the bank accounts are showing 0.

I agree with that

Russia suffered a geo-political catastrophe with the break up of the Soviet Union followed by Yeltsin's obsession with rapid transformation to a western style democracy. Neither of these were in accordance with sustainable Russian interests.

Because of its sheer size and diversity, Russia requires strong central government to function effectively as a state. Yeltsin presided over Russian chaos and decline, aided and abetted by his western donors and their governments for whom a declining Russia was a good thing.

Russians woke up to their decline following the NATO war on Serbia in 1999, and progressive NATO expansion to their borders. Putin's conclusion that Russia needed to abandon western democratisation and re-build the military was perhaps inevitable since no state Russia's size can stay weak indefinitely.

The Putin / Medvedev era has indeed seen progressive strengthening of the military along with attempts to modernise an unbalanced economy. But IMO anyone expecting Russia to adopt western style democracy is going to be disappointed. Russia does not function well unless its core is strong and protected. This is still unfinished business, but what we see now is a more 'normal' Russian foreign and security policy than the disastrous aberration of the 1990s.