Future Energy Pathways

swerve

Super Moderator
Simple. Expand the generating capacity.

Demand for electricity doesn't massively increase overnight. Growth in use, whether industrial or domestic, takes time, & that time can be taken to build more capacity.

And then there are price & hard currency earnings to be thought about. How much would North African governments want to cut off a nice earner?

The point of North African solar would be cheap land & high sunshine levels, enabling the price to be competitive despite the infrastructure needed. Those competitive advantages aren't going to disappear.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
The question that has to be asked in that scenario is "what happens if the North African countries decide they need to use the electricity themselves and cut off or reduce delivery of electricity to Europe?" Say that increased industrial demand causes Tunisia to decide that they'd rather use the electricity to power their own industry rather than selling it to Europe. Will Europe allow Tunisia and other North African countries to do that?

If they aren't allowed to, that's colonialism.
If they are allowed to, does Europe go dark? Or do they have sufficient electricity to keep things running? If it's the latter, then Europe is energy independent and doesn't need North African electricity.
Isn’t there the option of both Tunisia and EU companies owning solar farms or is Tunisia going to insist on state owned solar farms?
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Since it's a hypothetical future thing, who knows? But I'd not bet on state-owned Tunisian solar farms. They'd have to be paid for by the state, & it isn't exactly flush with money. If it ever happens, I'd expect them to be privately owned but paying for land, permits, etc. & tied into the local grid & supplying electricity for Tunisia (perhaps at a discount) as well as exporting, for political acceptability.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
Isn’t there the option of both Tunisia and EU companies owning solar farms or is Tunisia going to insist on state owned solar farms?
Of course there are options, but countries do make rules about exports all the time and applies it even to private companies. For example, in January Indonesia banned coal exports in order to secure their own supply. This lasted only ten days while they sort things out, but for those few days no coal was shipped out of the country.

A similar scenario happening with solar power in North African countries can happen. But with coal, most coal power plants have a few days stockpile at least, so they can operate while looking for alternative suppliers and there are also quite a lot of alternatives, e.g., Australian coal. With electricity though, if a cable connects Tunisia with Italy and Tunisia decides that they need those gigawatts for themselves, it's not practical to assume there's a second cable from somewhere else or that there are enough stored electricity to last a few days while they look for alternatives.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
Scale, scale & scale. Look at the size & population of Tunisia. And why would all the electricity be Tunisian? What's wrong with Libyan & Algerian sunshine?
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
Scale, scale & scale. Look at the size & population of Tunisia. And why would all the electricity be Tunisian? What's wrong with Libyan & Algerian sunshine?
Nothing wrong with them. I was just using Tunisia as a shorthand because listing all the North African countries one by one will be too long. Also, as you said, the closest links would be Morocco-Spain and Tunisia-Italy, so Libyan solar power likely has to go through Tunisia. (Algeria's may go through Tunisia or Morocco depending on the site's location.)

And we don't have to assume that Tunisia is going to be cut off power to Europe entirely. But say that in 2028 natural gas price spiked to triple the usual price for some reason. Tunisia then wants to shut off all their natural gas power plants during the day and siphon off the solar power that is delivered via Tunisia. They even pay for the siphoned solar power at the same rate Europe is paying. But this results in a 20 GWh reduction in the amount of power Europe receive per day (number picked just as an example and doesn't actually reflect actual conditions), and now Europe has to turn on their natural gas power plants and pay the natural gas cost.

Anyway what I am saying is that really Europe as a region should be pushing for energy independence. Also that this energy independence will have to include nuclear energy because it's just not achievable otherwise. Plans to get power from faraway places should be deemed as nice-to-have but not be allowed to become a must-have.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Another version on that IPCC forum. Seriously why they are stuborn reluctancy with nuclear is beyond me. Eurozone energy self reliance level will be higher then now for one thing, if most of them did not ditch Nuclear investment.

There's much advancement in Nuclear Power Generation security and waste management. However seems being put asside by those enviromental "experts" that seems still looking Nuclear tech as of old potential problematics reactors frm the 60's.

The EU plan, called REPowerEU, calls for eliminating the need for Russian fossil fuels over time, replacing them with hydrogen, biomethane, as well as wind and solar energy.
The solutions always the same, dream of Solar, Wind, even hydrogen while knowing well that the most cost efficients hydrogen production are through fossil fuel side process (under current infrastructure and tech).


Anyway enough of my ranting.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group

Another version on that IPCC forum. Seriously why they are stuborn reluctancy with nuclear is beyond me. Eurozone energy self reliance level will be higher then now for one thing, if most of them did not ditch Nuclear investment.

There's much advancement in Nuclear Power Generation security and waste management. However seems being put asside by those enviromental "experts" that seems still looking Nuclear tech as of old potential problematics reactors frm the 60's.



The solutions always the same, dream of Solar, Wind, even hydrogen while knowing well that the most cost efficients hydrogen production are through fossil fuel side process (under current infrastructure and tech).


Anyway enough of my ranting.
I understand and agree with your rant. Beyond stupid IMHO. Hell, might as well build new fission reactor plants and if fusion ever happens, much of the plant infrastructure will be needed for a fusion reactor substitute. Green energy happening faster with orders of magnitude less radioactive waste concerns.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This article talk about the Global oil reserve now mostly hold either by Saudi's, Russian, Iranian and Venezuella. However what I like to point out from this article is the question: "Is Oil and Gas going to diminish in importance by those green energy?".

I do sense the Investment on those ussual Green Energy as my previous posts put will not be enough to cover Global demand of energy. Especially when those "greenies' still lobby for not only less fossil fuel but also less nuclear.220713_earth-at-night-marshall-nasa.jpg

This photo I take from this article:

Look at photo and take a look of Global population growth, Asside From China, India, and rest of East and Southeast Asia, most of the other lights in the nights (thus represent high energy consumption places) are North America, Europe, Middle East, Coastal Brazil and Coastal Australia. Those are not the biggest population growth center in future.

Look at Africa, thats where population growth in future. Africa still mostly dark, thus will those big population growth in Africa can afford those fancies greenies energy ? No, they will most likely going use relatively more affordable (in Investment to produce) of proven fossil fuels.

30 years ago most of Asia still darker then Eurozone and North America. Now the brightness in Asia (including middle east) rivalling Eurozone and North America. Even the brightness in Asia still not fully distributed yet.

Is Asia proportion of Green Energy Investment already on par with the other two region? Off course not, and will Africa will still as dark in next 2-3 decades ? Most likely not. Will they are brighthening the nights with Green Energy in the future? Doubtfully will be.

So will the prospect of Fossil energy dimmer in few decades in the future ? Perhaps in Euro, North America and some parts of more prosperous Asia. However not for the rest of that high growth population center, where their population also hungry for energy.

So much talk on Green Energy, as future for all Global energy within two decades. Well off course my ussual ranting in Energy: Unless the green energy include nuclear.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Nuclear will absolutely be needed for green energy. As for fossil fuels, yes poorer nations will stick with fossil….unless more rapid damaging climate change occurs which more often than not these countries are more vulnerable to.
 
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